AC Milan vs Atalanta Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza Sun, 10 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
AC Milan MIL
Versus
Atalanta ATA
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 6:45 PM
Round 36 Regular Season

CONTEXT

At the iconic Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, AC Milan welcomes Atalanta for a crucial Serie A regular season encounter in the 2025/2026 campaign. The Rossoneri, holding third place in the standings, aim to extend their strong domestic campaign against a seventh-placed Atalanta side that carries a slight power score edge at 84.28 compared to Milan's 84.05, marking a razor-thin 0.2-point advantage for the visitors. Form scores reflect this closeness, with Atalanta at 13.72 and Milan at 13.11, suggesting both teams arrive in competitive shape. Milan's home stronghold could counter Atalanta's marginal superiority, setting the stage for a tactical chess match where precision and momentum will decide the outcome in this high-stakes Milanese showdown.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Atalanta possesses a slight power score advantage of 0.2 points over AC Milan, rated at 84.28 to 84.05.
  • Form: Atalanta leads in form scores with 13.72 against AC Milan's 13.11.
  • Squad: AC Milan occupies 3rd place in Serie A standings, ahead of Atalanta in 7th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not available for either team.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG information.
  • xVariable: xG variable metrics not provided for AC Milan or Atalanta.
  • Market: AC Milan 44.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28.2% (Δ+0%) | Atalanta 27% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
AC Milan M. Allegri
M. Allegri
VS
Atalanta R. Palladino
R. Palladino
1.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.75
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sassuolo Rank: 75 L
Juventus Rank: 85 D
Hellas Verona Rank: 63 W
Udinese Rank: 76 L
Napoli Rank: 86 L
Torino Rank: 74 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genoa Rank: 74 D
Cagliari Rank: 69 L
Roma Rank: 83 D
Juventus Rank: 86 L
Lecce Rank: 69 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 W
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 10 - 14
14
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AC Milan
44.84%
Draw
28.19%
Away Atalanta
26.97%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
84.05
84.28
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AC Milan
Atalanta
Power Score
84.05
84.28
League Position
3
7
Global Rank
40
39

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AC Milan — Opponent-weighted form score
Atalanta — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AC Milan Atalanta

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AC Milan MIL Home
38 matches
Atalanta ATA Away
Match Record
14
Wins
14
10
Draws
10
14
Losses
14
Goals
48
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
48
+4
Goal Difference
-4

Data last updated: 2026-05-06T02:01:26+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
M. Maignan
16 M. Maignan
K. De Winter
5 K. De Winter
M. Gabbia
46 M. Gabbia
S. Pavlović
31 S. Pavlović
A. Saelemaekers
56 A. Saelemaekers
Y. Fofana
19 Y. Fofana
A. Jasari
30 A. Jasari
A. Rabiot
12 A. Rabiot
P. Estupiñán Tenorio
2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
C. Nkunku
18 C. Nkunku
R. Conceição Leão
10 R. Conceição Leão
M. Carnesecchi
29 M. Carnesecchi
H. Ahanor
69 H. Ahanor
B. Djimsiti
19 B. Djimsiti
G. Scalvini
42 G. Scalvini
N. Zalewski
59 N. Zalewski
É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
M. de Roon
15 M. de Roon
D. Zappacosta
77 D. Zappacosta
C. De Ketelaere
17 C. De Ketelaere
N. Krstović
90 N. Krstović
G. Scamacca
9 G. Scamacca

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Capacity :
75817
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

16
Mike Maignan
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper
7.08
2
Pervis Estupiñán
Pervis Estupiñán Midfielder
6.73
56
Alexis Saelemaekers
Alexis Saelemaekers Midfielder
7.13
18
Christopher Nkunku
Christopher Nkunku Attacker
6.74
10
Rafael Leão
Rafael Leão Attacker
7.02
30
Ardon Jashari
Ardon Jashari Central Midfield
6.83
31
Strahinja Pavlović
Strahinja Pavlović Left Back
6.98
19
Youssouf Fofana
Youssouf Fofana Central Midfield
6.81
5
Koni De Winter
Koni De Winter Right Back
6.82
12
Adrien Rabiot
Adrien Rabiot Central Midfield
7.28
46
Matteo Gabbia
Matteo Gabbia Centre Back
6.89

Starting XI ▼

29
Marco Carnesecchi
Marco Carnesecchi Goalkeeper
7.05
59
Nicola Zalewski
Nicola Zalewski Midfielder
6.97
77
Davide Zappacosta
Davide Zappacosta Midfielder
6.85
9
Gianluca Scamacca
Gianluca Scamacca Attacker
7.08
90
Nikola Krstović
Nikola Krstović Attacker
7.06
17
Charles De Ketelaere
Charles De Ketelaere Attacking Midfield
7.15
19
Berat Djimsiti
Berat Djimsiti Centre Back
6.98
42
Giorgio Scalvini
Giorgio Scalvini Right Back
7.03
13
Éderson
Éderson Central Midfield
6.97
15
Marten de Roon
Marten de Roon Central Midfield
6.92
69
Honest Ahanor
Honest Ahanor Left Back
6.71

CONCLUSION

This Serie A showdown at San Siro promises tension, with AC Milan's third-place perch and home dominance clashing against Atalanta's subtle power and form edges. The near-identical power scores hint at a balanced affair, where Milan's league standing might fuel their push for victory. Atalanta's resilience could exploit any Rossoneri lapses, but the hosts' familiarity with the venue tips the scales marginally. Expect a gritty contest defined by fine margins, key individual battles, and opportunistic strikes, potentially cementing Milan's top-four aspirations while testing Atalanta's climb.

AC Milan vs Atalanta preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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