Rennes vs Paris Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Roazhon Park Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Rennes REN
2 Winner 1
Paris PFC
Full Time Sun, 10 May 7:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Estéban Lepaul - 74'
Goal
|
Goal
Willem Geubbels - 53'

CONTEXT

Rennes defeated Paris 2-1 in a tightly fought home match, remaining level at 0-0 through halftime. Possession was balanced with Rennes holding 51% to Paris's 49%, reflecting a competitive affair. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, Rennes converted their edge into goals during the second half, securing the victory without any red cards disrupting play. The result exhibited a significant 38.8% structural deviation, favoring Rennes, yet aligned fully with pre-match market positioning where home win probability stood highest. Efficiency metrics for both sides stayed in line with expectations, and no major tactical adjustments marked the second half. Absent xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis, but the scoreline underscores Rennes' clinical finishing against a resilient Paris defense. This outcome highlights Rennes' ability to outperform in key moments despite even underlying metrics.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rennes' 2-1 win produced a significant 38.8% structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiencies remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The result fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for assessment.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Léonard

France 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Favre

2nd Assistant

France

V. Evrard

1st Assistant

France

W. Delajod

4th Official

France

League averages

Ligue 1 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.25
Yellow cards / match 3.19
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.27
Rennes F. Haise
F. Haise
VS
Paris A. Kombouare
A. Kombouare
1.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.35
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 82 L
Nantes Rank: 64 W
Strasbourg Rank: 80 W
Angers SCO Rank: 67 W
Brest Rank: 73 W
Metz Rank: 62 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brest Rank: 74 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 80 L
Metz Rank: 62 W
Monaco Rank: 80 W
Lorient Rank: 75 D
Le Havre Rank: 68 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rennes
61.22%
Draw
20.99%
Away Paris
17.79%

Movement

Changes since opening
Rennes
-34.85%
Draw
+17.26%
Paris
+17.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
79.31
60.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rennes
Paris
Power Score
79.31
60.93
League Position
5
11
Global Rank
65
140

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rennes — Opponent-weighted form score
Paris — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rennes Paris

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rennes

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Paris

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rennes ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Paris
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rennes Paris
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rennes Paris
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rennes
Paris
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rennes
vs
Paris
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rennes Paris
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rennes 0.00
Paris 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rennes Paris
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rennes 0.00
Paris 0.00
Rennes
Paris
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • REN had peak pressure around 80'.
  • REN started the game with stronger pressure.
REN Pressure PFC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: REN reached the top pressure at 80' (83.73).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rennes REN Home
1 matches
Paris PFC Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
1
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T19:00:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Samba
France
30 B. Samba
M. Nagida
Substitution
Cameroon
18 M. Nagida
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
Morocco
48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
A. Rouault
France
24 A. Rouault
Q. Merlin
France
26 Q. Merlin
M. Camara
France
45 M. Camara
V. Rongier
France
21 V. Rongier
L. Blas
Substitution
France
10 L. Blas
S. Szymański
Substitution
Poland
17 S. Szymański
M. Al Tamari
Jordan
11 M. Al Tamari
E. Lepaul
Substitution
France
9 E. Lepaul
Pitch
K. Trapp
Germany
35 K. Trapp
N. Sangui
France
19 N. Sangui
M. Mbow
Senegal
5 M. Mbow
D. Coppola
Italy
42 D. Coppola
H. Traoré
Substitution
Mali
14 H. Traoré
R. Matondo
23 R. Matondo
P. Lees Melou
Substitution
France
33 P. Lees Melou
L. Koleosho
Italy
24 L. Koleosho
I. Kebbal
Substitution
Algeria
10 I. Kebbal
A. Gory
Substitution
France
7 A. Gory
W. Geubbels
Substitution
France
9 W. Geubbels

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Roazhon Park
Capacity :
29778
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Cédric Favre
Thomas Léonard
Valentin Evrard
Willy Delajod

Statistics

Possession
REN
52%
PFC
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 6
61 Dangerous attacks 32
51 Possession 49
8 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 13
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

27 Throwins 12
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
13 Successful Dribbles 5
8 Goal Kicks 15
21 Dribble Attempts 9
20 Successful Headers 12
68 Ball Safe 85
12 Goal Attempts 5
4 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 0
0 Injuries 3

Attacking

86 Attacks 93
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
425 Passes 419
333 Successful Passes 335
21 Successful Long Passes 21
78 Successful Passes Percentage 80
41 Long Passes 56
10 Key Passes 10

Defensive

59 Duels Won 43
14 Tackles 12
7 Interceptions 12
0 Saves 3

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 9
7 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

13 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Thomas Léonard

Starting XI ▼

30
Brice Samba
Brice Samba Goalkeeper
6.85
18
Mahamadou Nagida
Mahamadou Nagida Defender
6.57
36
Alidu Seidu
Alidu Seidu
Defender76'
6.77
24
Anthony Rouault
Anthony Rouault Defender
6.88
26
Quentin Merlin
Quentin Merlin Defender
6.91
48
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal Defender
6.71
10
Ludovic Blas
Ludovic Blas Midfielder
6.9
70
Arnaud Nordin
Arnaud Nordin
Attacker66'
6.89
11
Mousa Tamari
Mousa Tamari Midfielder
6.92
17
Sebastian Szymanski
Sebastian Szymanski Midfielder
6.9
7
Breel Embolo
Breel Embolo
Attacker67'
6.81
21
Valentin Rongier
Valentin Rongier Midfielder
7.24
45
Mahdi Camara
Mahdi Camara Midfielder
6.85
9
Estéban Lepaul
Estéban Lepaul Attacker
6.86
6
Djaoui Cissé
Djaoui Cissé
Midfielder87'
6.69
Referee : Thomas Léonard

Starting XI ▼

35
Kevin Trapp
Kevin Trapp Goalkeeper
6.85
5
Moustapha Mbow
Moustapha Mbow Defender
6.92
14
Hamari Traoré
Hamari Traoré Defender
6.69
17
Adama Camara
Adama Camara
Midfielder76'
6.77
19
Nhoa Sangui
Nhoa Sangui Defender
6.65
42
Diego Coppola
Diego Coppola Defender
6.93
7
Alimami Gory
Alimami Gory Midfielder
6.6
93
Jonathan Ikoné
Jonathan Ikoné
Attacker77'
6.81
10
Ilan Kebbal
Ilan Kebbal Midfielder
7.42
21
Maxime Lopez
Maxime Lopez
Midfielder46'
6.97
23
Rudy Matondo
Rudy Matondo Midfielder
6.76
24
Luca Koleosho
Luca Koleosho Midfielder
6.83
33
Pierre Lees-Melou
Pierre Lees-Melou Midfielder
6.9
4
Vincent Marchetti
Vincent Marchetti
Midfielder83'
6.73
9
Willem Geubbels
Willem Geubbels Attacker
6.67
36
Ciro Immobile
Ciro Immobile
Attacker71'
6.88

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Ciro Immobile
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Djaoui Cissé → Estéban Lepaul
9th Substitution
87'
83'
Event
Vincent Marchetti → Pierre Lees-Melou
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Jonathan Ikoné → Alimami Gory
7th Substitution
Event
Alidu Seidu → Mahamadou Nagida
6th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Adama Camara → Hamari Traoré
5th Substitution
Event
Breel Embolo
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
75'
Event
Estéban Lepaul
Header / 2nd Goal
74'
71'
Event
Ciro Immobile → Willem Geubbels
4th Substitution
Event
Breel Embolo → Sebastian Szymanski
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Arnaud Nordin → Ludovic Blas
2nd Substitution
66'
53'
Event
Willem Geubbels
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
46'
Event
Maxime Lopez → Ilan Kebbal
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ciro Immobile takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ciro Immobile receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Quentin Merlin takes a left-footed shot but misses.
88
Attempt Attempt
Luca Koleosho takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
87
Update Update
Djaoui Cisse is on, and Esteban Lepaul is off.
86
Attempt Attempt
Luca Koleosho takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Arnaud Nordin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Update Update
Vincent Marchetti replaces Pierre Lees-Melou.
77
Update Update
Vincent Marchetti replaces Pierre Lees-Melou.
77
Update Update
Nanitamo Jonathan Ikone comes on for Alimani Gory.
76
Update Update
Alidu Seidu comes on for Mahamadou Nagida.
75
Attempt Attempt
Breel Donald Embolo takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
74
Update Update
Esteban Lepaul scores with a header.
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Esteban Lepaul scores, making it 1-1.
71
Update Update
Ciro Immobile is on, and Willem Geubbels is off.
67
Update Update
Arnaud Nordin comes on for Sebastian Szymanski.
66
Update Update
Breel Donald Embolo comes on for Ludovic Blas.
59
Attempt Attempt
Esteban Lepaul's right-footed shot is saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Willem Geubbels takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
50
Attempt Attempt
Maxime Baila Lopez takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Alimani Gory's right-footed shot is blocked.
46
Update Update
Maxime Baila Lopez comes on for Ilan Kebbal.
46
Attempt Attempt
Maxime Baila Lopez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Alimani Gory's right-footed shot is blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Szymanski takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Esteban Lepaul takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
28
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Rouault takes a header shot, but it misses the target.
28
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Rouault takes a header shot, but it misses the target.
27
Attempt Attempt
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal attempts a header but misses the shot.
27
Attempt Attempt
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal attempts a header but misses the shot.
19
Attempt Attempt
Mousa Tamari takes a right-footed shot but misses.
16
Attempt Attempt
Mousa Tamari takes a left-footed shot but misses.
12
Attempt Attempt
Ludovic Blas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Pierre Lees-Melou takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
6
Attempt Attempt
Willem Geubbels takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Rennes' 2-1 triumph over Paris validated their pre-designated stronger status, with balanced possession underscoring a tactical stalemate broken by second-half execution. The significant structural deviation of 38.8% did not undermine market alignment, confirming the home win as the most probable outcome. Efficiencies holding steady without red card interference preserved the match's integrity, though missing xG data prevents full chance evaluation. This result bolsters Rennes' consistency in delivering against favored positioning, while Paris's narrow defeat exposes minor conversion shortfalls in a near-even contest.

Rennes vs Paris preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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