Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium de Toulouse Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Toulouse TOU
Versus
Olympique Lyonnais LYO
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Toulouse hosts Olympique Lyonnais at Stadium de Toulouse in a Ligue 1 regular season encounter during the 2025/2026 campaign. Lyon arrives with clear superiority, holding a power score of 83.16 versus Toulouse's 73.4, which equates to a 9.8-point edge according to analytics. Sitting third in the standings, Lyon also dominates recent form at 36.39 points, dwarfing Toulouse's 18.61 as the 10th-placed side. This matchup pits a mid-table home team against top contenders vying for European spots. Toulouse must harness home support to counter Lyon's attacking prowess and defensive solidity. Without detailed last outings, focus shifts to league positions and underlying metrics. Lyon's structural advantages suggest control in possession, while Toulouse eyes counter opportunities. Midfield duels and wide play will prove pivotal in this uneven contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Olympique Lyonnais possess a 9.8-point power advantage over Toulouse.
  • Form: Lyon's form score stands at 36.39, far exceeding Toulouse's 18.61.
  • Squad: Toulouse occupies 10th in Ligue 1, while Lyon holds 3rd place.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable, with Lyon favored by overall power scores.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence and no xG data for either side.
  • xVariable: Toulouse 21.6% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.5% (Δ+0%) | Olympique Lyonnais 53.9% (Δ+0%).
  • Market: Toulouse 21.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.1% (Δ+0%) | Olympique Lyonnais 54.2% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Toulouse C. Martínez Novell
C. Martínez Novell
VS
Olympique Lyonnais P. Rodrigues Fonseca
P. Rodrigues Fonseca
1.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Strasbourg Rank: 79 W
Monaco Rank: 79 D
Lens Rank: 81 L
LOSC Lille Rank: 79 L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 95 L
Lorient Rank: 75 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rennes Rank: 80 W
Auxerre Rank: 69 W
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 94 W
Lorient Rank: 73 W
Angers SCO Rank: 67 D
Monaco Rank: 80 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 9 - 21
21
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Toulouse
21.73%
Draw
24.06%
Away Olympique Lyonnais
54.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.4
83.16
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Toulouse
Olympique Lyonnais
Power Score
73.4
83.16
League Position
10
3
Global Rank
136
45

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Toulouse — Opponent-weighted form score
Olympique Lyonnais — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Toulouse Olympique Lyonnais

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Toulouse TOU Home
37 matches
Olympique Lyonnais LYO Away
Match Record
7
Wins
21
9
Draws
9
21
Losses
7
Goals
38
Goals Scored
65
65
Goals Conceded
38
-27
Goal Difference
+27

Data last updated: 2026-05-06T02:01:47+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
G. Restes
1 G. Restes
M. McKenzie
3 M. McKenzie
C. Cresswell
4 C. Cresswell
R. Nicolaisen
2 R. Nicolaisen
D. Sidibé
19 D. Sidibé
C. Cásseres Yepes
23 C. Cásseres Yepes
P. Diop
18 P. Diop
D. Methalie
24 D. Methalie
A. Dønnum
15 A. Dønnum
Y. Gboho
10 Y. Gboho
E. Correia da Silva
20 E. Correia da Silva
D. Greif
1 D. Greif
A. Da Silva Santos
16 A. Da Silva Santos
M. Niakhaté
19 M. Niakhaté
C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
22 C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
A. Maitland-Niles
98 A. Maitland-Niles
C. Tolisso
8 C. Tolisso
T. Morton
23 T. Morton
A. Bastardo Moreira
17 A. Bastardo Moreira
K. Merah
44 K. Merah
E. Moreira de Sousa
9 E. Moreira de Sousa
R. Yaremchuk
77 R. Yaremchuk

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadium de Toulouse
Capacity :
33150
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bastien Dechepy
Julien Haulbert
Brice Parinet Le Tellier
Florent Batta

Expected Lineup

Referee : Bastien Dechepy

Starting XI ▼

1
Guillaume Restes
Guillaume Restes Goalkeeper
6.77
15
Aron Dønnum
Aron Dønnum Midfielder
7.3
10
Yann Gboho
Yann Gboho Midfielder
7.01
19
Djibril Sidibé
Djibril Sidibé Midfielder
6.73
24
Dayann Methalie
Dayann Methalie Midfielder
6.48
20
Emersonn
Emersonn Centre Forward
6.78
3
Mark McKenzie
Mark McKenzie Right Back
6.71
4
Charlie Cresswell
Charlie Cresswell Centre Back
7.05
2
Rasmus Nicolaisen
Rasmus Nicolaisen Left Back
6.71
18
Pape Demba Diop
Pape Demba Diop Central Midfield
7.13
23
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Cristian Cásseres Jr. Central Midfield
7.1
Referee : Bastien Dechepy

Starting XI ▼

1
Dominik Greif
Dominik Greif Goalkeeper
7.01
77
Roman Yaremchuk
Roman Yaremchuk Centre Forward
6.93
17
Afonso Moreira
Afonso Moreira Left Wing
7.03
22
Clinton Mata
Clinton Mata Right Back
6.83
9
Endrick
Endrick Right Wing
7.35
16
Abner
Abner Left Back
6.87
19
Moussa Niakhaté
Moussa Niakhaté Left Back
7.03
8
Corentin Tolisso
Corentin Tolisso Defensive Midfield
7.28
23
Tyler Morton
Tyler Morton Defensive Midfield
7.09
44
Khalis Merah
Khalis Merah Attacking Midfield
6.66
98
Ainsley Maitland-Niles
Ainsley Maitland-Niles Right Back
6.8

CONCLUSION

Olympique Lyonnais enter this fixture as firm favorites, leveraging superior power ratings, league position, and form to challenge Toulouse on their home turf. Toulouse's 10th-place standing offers little comfort against Lyon's third-place momentum and analytical edge. Home advantage at Stadium de Toulouse could spark resilience, yet Lyon's higher metrics point toward dominance in key phases. Expect Lyon to dictate tempo, testing Toulouse's backline early. Without set-piece or efficiency insights, broader trends favor the visitors securing points. Toulouse requires standout individual efforts to disrupt Lyon's rhythm and claim a result in this Ligue 1 bout.

Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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