Metz vs Lorient Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Saint-Symphorien Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Metz MTZ
Versus
Lorient LOR
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Metz welcomes Lorient to Stade Saint-Symphorien for a crucial Ligue 1 regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 18th in the standings, Metz faces an uphill battle against 9th-placed Lorient, who enter with a clear edge. Lorient's power score of 62.27 significantly outpaces Metz's 53.36, translating to an 8.9-point advantage that underscores their structural superiority. Form metrics further highlight the disparity, with Lorient's 15.78 rating dwarfing Metz's modest 6.39, suggesting recent momentum favors the visitors. While detailed efficiency, transition, and set-piece data remain unavailable due to low-confidence proxies and absent xG stats, Lorient's higher league position and power rating position them as the stronger side overall. Metz will need a stout defensive showing at home to counter Lorient's attacking threat in this matchup.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Lorient possesses a superior power score of 62.27 against Metz's 53.36, with an 8.9-point advantage.
  • Form: Lorient's form score stands at 15.78, well ahead of Metz's 6.39.
  • Squad: Metz occupies 18th place in Ligue 1, while Lorient is in 9th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence with no xG data available for Metz or Lorient.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables are unavailable due to lack of data.
  • Market: Projection split: Metz 29.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.1% (Δ+0%) | Lorient 44.2% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Metz B. Tavenot
B. Tavenot
VS
Lorient O. Pantaloni
O. Pantaloni
0.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.6
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Monaco Rank: 79 L
Le Havre Rank: 67 D
Paris Rank: 70 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 79 L
Nantes Rank: 67 D
Rennes Rank: 79 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 95 D
Strasbourg Rank: 78 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 81 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 83 L
Paris Rank: 73 D
Toulouse Rank: 74 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 8
8
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Metz
29.73%
Draw
26.05%
Away Lorient
44.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.36
62.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Metz
Lorient
Power Score
53.36
62.27
League Position
18
9
Global Rank
427
119

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Metz — Opponent-weighted form score
Lorient — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Metz Lorient

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Metz MTZ Home
13 matches
Lorient LOR Away
Match Record
3
Wins
8
2
Draws
2
8
Losses
3
Goals
19
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
19
-10
Goal Difference
+10

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:50:36+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
P. Sy
61 P. Sy
K. Kouao
39 K. Kouao
S. Sané
38 S. Sané
T. Yegbe
15 T. Yegbe
M. Colin
2 M. Colin
G. Hein
10 G. Hein
J. Deminguet
20 J. Deminguet
B. Stambouli
21 B. Stambouli
B. Sarr
70 B. Sarr
G. Kvilitaia
11 G. Kvilitaia
H. Tsitaishvili
7 H. Tsitaishvili
Y. Mvogo
38 Y. Mvogo
A. Faye
25 A. Faye
N. Adjei
32 N. Adjei
M. Talbi
3 M. Talbi
K. Kouassi
43 K. Kouassi
L. Abergel
6 L. Abergel
N. Cadiou
8 N. Cadiou
P. Katseris
77 P. Katseris
P. Pagis
10 P. Pagis
A. Ebong Avon
62 A. Ebong Avon
Bamba Dieng
12 Bamba Dieng

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Saint-Symphorien
Capacity :
26661
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jeremy Stinat
Christophe Mouysset
Youssef El Hamzaoui
Samir Zolota

Expected Lineup

Referee : Jeremy Stinat

Starting XI ▼

61
Pape Sy
Pape Sy Goalkeeper
6.89
7
Giorgi Tsitaishvili
Giorgi Tsitaishvili Attacker
6.77
11
Giorgi Kvilitaia
Giorgi Kvilitaia Centre Forward
6.81
70
Bouna Sarr
Bouna Sarr Attacker
6.53
2
Maxime Colin
Maxime Colin Left Back
6.6
10
Gauthier Hein
Gauthier Hein Central Midfield
7.18
15
Terry Yegbe
Terry Yegbe Left Back
6.47
20
Jessy Deminguet
Jessy Deminguet Central Midfield
6.66
21
Benjamin Stambouli
Benjamin Stambouli Central Midfield
6.65
38
Sadibou Sané
Sadibou Sané Right Back
6.82
39
Koffi Kouao
Koffi Kouao Right Back
6.91
Referee : Jeremy Stinat

Starting XI ▼

38
Yvon Mvogo
Yvon Mvogo Goalkeeper
6.82
10
Pablo Pagis
Pablo Pagis Midfielder
7.25
43
Arsène Kouassi
Arsène Kouassi Midfielder
6.9
62
Arthur Avom
Arthur Avom Midfielder
6.93
77
Panos Katseris
Panos Katseris Midfielder
6.72
12
Bamba Dieng
Bamba Dieng Centre Forward
6.89
3
Montassar Talbi
Montassar Talbi Right Back
6.81
6
Laurent Abergel
Laurent Abergel Central Midfield
6.8
8
Noah Doriann Cadiou
Noah Doriann Cadiou Central Midfield
6.79
25
Abdoulaye Faye
Abdoulaye Faye Left Back
6.63
32
Nathaniel Adjei
Nathaniel Adjei Centre Back
6.57

CONCLUSION

Lorient arrives as the clear favorites, bolstered by their higher power score, superior form, and better league standing, giving them a distinct edge over struggling Metz. The 8.9-point power advantage signals potential dominance in structure and execution, though Metz's home advantage at Stade Saint-Symphorien could spark resilience. Absent detailed set-piece and efficiency insights, the focus shifts to Lorient's momentum, which has propelled them to 9th place. Metz must disrupt transitions and capitalize on any lapses to compete. Expect a tactical battle where Lorient's quality likely prevails, but home crowd energy adds intrigue to this Ligue 1 encounter.

Metz vs Lorient preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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