Auxerre vs Nice Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Auxerre AUX
Versus
Nice NCE
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Auxerre welcomes Nice to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps for a crucial Ligue 1 regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 16th in the table, Auxerre face neighbors Nice in 15th, with both sides desperate for points to climb out of the relegation scrap. Nice holds a slight edge in overall power ratings at 72.74 compared to Auxerre's 70.45, translating to a 2.3-point advantage that underscores their marginally superior squad depth and quality. However, Auxerre boasts stronger recent form with a score of 19 against Nice's 12.06, suggesting momentum could play a pivotal role on home soil. The venue favors Auxerre's attacking intent, where crowd support often amplifies their pressing game. Nice's defensive resilience will be tested, especially given the tight league positions. With limited advanced metrics available, this matchup hinges on execution in open play and capitalizing on sparse opportunities. Expect a tactical battle where Auxerre's home advantage clashes with Nice's underlying strength.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Nice enters as the marginally stronger side with a 72.74 power score versus Auxerre's 70.45, holding a 2.3-point advantage.
  • Form: Auxerre demonstrates superior recent form at 19 compared to Nice's 12.06.
  • Squad: Auxerre sits 16th and Nice 15th in Ligue 1 standings, reflecting closely matched squad capabilities.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Limited transition data available; Auxerre's home form may aid quick counters.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to lack of xG information and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable, preventing analysis of expected goal variables.
  • Market: Baseline split: Auxerre 39.6% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28% (Δ+0%) | Nice 32.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Auxerre C. Pélissier
C. Pélissier
VS
Nice C. Puel
C. Puel
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.7
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Angers SCO Rank: 68 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 81 L
Monaco Rank: 79 D
Nantes Rank: 67 D
Le Havre Rank: 68 D
Brest Rank: 73 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lens Rank: 82 D
Olympique Marseille Rank: 80 D
LOSC Lille Rank: 80 D
Le Havre Rank: 68 D
Strasbourg Rank: 78 L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 95 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 5 - 6
6
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Auxerre
39.59%
Draw
27.96%
Away Nice
32.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.45
72.74
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Auxerre
Nice
Power Score
70.45
72.74
League Position
16
15
Global Rank
200
153

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Auxerre — Opponent-weighted form score
Nice — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Auxerre Nice

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Auxerre AUX Home
19 matches
Nice NCE Away
Match Record
8
Wins
6
5
Draws
5
6
Losses
8
Goals
19
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
19
+4
Goal Difference
-4

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:50:40+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
T. De Percin
40 T. De Percin
L. Sy
27 L. Sy
S. Diomande
20 S. Diomande
B. Okoh
24 B. Okoh
G. Mensah
14 G. Mensah
E. Owusu
42 E. Owusu
K. Danois
5 K. Danois
L. Sinayoko
10 L. Sinayoko
N. Ahamada
8 N. Ahamada
D. Loader
19 D. Loader
S. Mara
9 S. Mara
Y. Diouf
80 Y. Diouf
K. Peprah Oppong
37 K. Peprah Oppong
A. Juma Bah
28 A. Juma Bah
A. Mendy
33 A. Mendy
M. Bard
26 M. Bard
M. Sanson
8 M. Sanson
H. Boudaoui
6 H. Boudaoui
S. Diop
10 S. Diop
T. Louchet
20 T. Louchet
K. Boudache
32 K. Boudache
M. Cho
25 M. Cho

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Capacity :
18541
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
François Letexier
Cyril Mugnier
Mehdi Rahmouni
Gaël Angoula

Expected Lineup

Referee : François Letexier

Starting XI ▼

40
Théo De Percin
Théo De Percin Goalkeeper
6.63
9
Sékou Mara
Sékou Mara Centre Forward
6.81
5
Kévin Danois
Kévin Danois Defensive Midfield
7.09
8
Naouirou Ahamada
Naouirou Ahamada Attacking Midfield
6.67
19
Danny Namaso
Danny Namaso Left Wing
6.78
20
Sinaly Diomandé
Sinaly Diomandé Right Back
6.85
42
Elisha Owusu
Elisha Owusu Defensive Midfield
6.73
10
Lassine Sinayoko
Lassine Sinayoko Right Wing
7.14
14
Gideon Mensah
Gideon Mensah Left Back
6.68
24
Bryan Okoh
Bryan Okoh Left Back
7.09
27
Lamine Sy
Lamine Sy Right Back
6.64
Referee : François Letexier

Starting XI ▼

80
Yehvann Diouf
Yehvann Diouf Goalkeeper
7.02
26
Melvin Bard
Melvin Bard Midfielder
6.78
20
Tom Louchet
Tom Louchet Midfielder
6.8
25
Mohamed-Ali Cho
Mohamed-Ali Cho Attacker
6.79
32
Kaïl Boudache
Kaïl Boudache Attacker
6.54
6
Hicham Boudaoui
Hicham Boudaoui Central Midfield
6.76
8
Morgan Sanson
Morgan Sanson Central Midfield
6.58
10
Sofiane Diop
Sofiane Diop Central Midfield
6.95
28
Juma Bah
Juma Bah Centre Back
6.8
33
Antoine Mendy
Antoine Mendy Right Back
6.69
37
Kojo Peprah Oppong
Kojo Peprah Oppong Left Back
6.79

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Nice holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Nice a 2.3-point edge. External projection is Auxerre 39.6%, draw 28%, and Nice 32.4%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

Auxerre vs Nice preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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