İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu Sat, 9 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
İstanbul Başakşehir IBA
Versus
Samsunspor Samsunspor
KICKOFF : Sat, 9 May - 5:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In the Super Lig 2025/2026 regular season, İstanbul Başakşehir hosts Samsunspor at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in a pivotal mid-table clash. The 6th-placed hosts hold a narrow power advantage with a 75.42 rating over the 7th-placed visitors' 73.77, translating to 1.7 points in their favor. However, Samsunspor counters with superior recent form at 36.33 compared to Başakşehir's 18.11, suggesting momentum on their side. Both teams lack detailed last outings or form records, shifting emphasis to underlying strengths. With no efficiency metrics or set-piece xG data available—relying on low-confidence proxies—the matchup hinges on structural balance and transitional play. Başakşehir's home venue could amplify their slight edge, but Samsunspor's form raises upset potential in this tightly contested affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural: İstanbul Başakşehir possesses a 1.7-point power advantage with a 75.42 score over Samsunspor's 73.77.
  • Form: Samsunspor leads in form with a 36.33 score against İstanbul Başakşehir's 18.11.
  • Squad: No specific squad updates available; teams ranked 6th and 7th respectively.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats unavailable with low confidence and proxy usage for both sides.
  • xVariable: xG variables absent due to data limitations.
  • Market: Baseline split: İstanbul Başakşehir 49.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.1% (Δ+0%) | Samsunspor 24.2% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
İstanbul Başakşehir N. Şahin
N. Şahin
VS
Samsunspor T. Fink
T. Fink
1.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fenerbahçe Rank: 84 L
Kasımpaşa Rank: 66 W
Trabzonspor Rank: 80 D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 66 W
Kocaelispor Rank: 65 D
Antalyaspor Rank: 60 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Galatasaray Rank: 87 W
Alanyaspor Rank: 68 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 W
Eyüpspor Rank: 62 W
Rizespor Rank: 69 L
Konyaspor Rank: 71 D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 1 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home İstanbul Başakşehir
49.68%
Draw
26.09%
Away Samsunspor
24.23%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.42
73.77
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
İstanbul Başakşehir
Samsunspor
Power Score
75.42
73.77
League Position
6
7
Global Rank
108
131

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
İstanbul Başakşehir — Opponent-weighted form score
Samsunspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) İstanbul Başakşehir Samsunspor

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

İstanbul Başakşehir IBA Home
7 matches
Samsunspor Samsunspor Away
Match Record
5
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
5
Goals
14
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
14
+10
Goal Difference
-10

Data last updated: 2026-05-06T02:05:06+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Şengezer
16 M. Şengezer
Ö. Şahiner
42 Ö. Şahiner
L. Duarte da Silva
5 L. Duarte da Silva
J. Opoku
3 J. Opoku
K. Karataş
88 K. Karataş
O. Kemen
8 O. Kemen
U. Güneş
20 U. Güneş
Y. Sari
7 Y. Sari
E. Shomurodov
14 E. Shomurodov
A. Harit
25 A. Harit
B. Yıldırım
91 B. Yıldırım
O. Kocuk
1 O. Kocuk
L. Tómasson
17 L. Tómasson
R. van Drongelen
4 R. van Drongelen
Ľ. Šatka
37 Ľ. Šatka
J. Wooding Mendes
2 J. Wooding Mendes
Y. Kayan
20 Y. Kayan
A. Makoumbou
29 A. Makoumbou
E. Tavsan
7 E. Tavsan
C. Holse
21 C. Holse
P. Ndiaye
19 P. Ndiaye
M. Mouandilmadji
9 M. Mouandilmadji

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu
Capacity :
17156
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

16
Muhammed Şengezer
Muhammed Şengezer Goalkeeper
7.05
91
Bertuğ Yıldırım
Bertuğ Yıldırım Centre Forward
6.84
25
Amine Harit
Amine Harit Left Wing
7.06
14
Eldor Shomurodov
Eldor Shomurodov Attacking Midfield
7.25
20
Umut Güneş
Umut Güneş Defensive Midfield
6.72
3
Jerome Opoku
Jerome Opoku Left Back
6.82
5
Léo Duarte
Léo Duarte Right Back
6.99
7
Yusuf Sarı
Yusuf Sarı Right Wing
7.19
8
Olivier Kemen
Olivier Kemen Defensive Midfield
6.92
42
Ömer Ali Şahiner
Ömer Ali Şahiner Right Back
6.7
88
Kazımcan Karataş
Kazımcan Karataş Left Back
6.55

Starting XI ▼

1
Okan Kocuk
Okan Kocuk Goalkeeper
6.71
9
Marius Mouandilmadji
Marius Mouandilmadji Centre Forward
6.82
4
Rick van Drongelen
Rick van Drongelen Left Back
7.03
19
Cherif Ndiaye
Cherif Ndiaye Right Wing
6.91
20
Yalçın Kayan
Yalçın Kayan Defensive Midfield
6.73
2
Joe Mendes
Joe Mendes Right Back
6.51
7
Elayis Tavsan
Elayis Tavsan Left Wing
6.86
17
Logi Tómasson
Logi Tómasson Left Back
6.84
29
Antoine Makoumbou
Antoine Makoumbou Defensive Midfield
6.87
21
Carlo Holse
Carlo Holse Attacking Midfield
7.12
37
Lubomir Satka
Lubomir Satka Right Back
6.75

CONCLUSION

İstanbul Başakşehir enters as the marginally stronger side at home, bolstered by a superior power score and higher league position, yet Samsunspor's impressive form score poses a real threat for an away challenge. Absent advanced efficiency, set-piece, or xG insights, the contest likely turns on defensive structure and quick transitions. The hosts' venue familiarity may tip the scales in a low-scoring, tactical duel, but visitors' momentum could force a draw. Expect Başakşehir to leverage their edge for a narrow victory in this balanced Super Lig encounter.

İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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