Club Brugge vs Sint-Truiden Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Jan Breydelstadion Sat, 9 May - 6:45 PM
Pro League
Club Brugge BRU
2 Winner 0
Sint-Truiden SIT
Full Time Sat, 9 May 6:45 PM
Round 7 Championship Round
Carlos Forbs - 52'
Nicolò Tresoldi - 13'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Ryan Merlen 63'

CONTEXT

Club Brugge claimed a 2-0 win against Sint-Truiden, leading 1-0 at halftime in a match marked by clear home dominance. With 61% possession compared to Sint-Truiden's 39%, Club Brugge dictated the tempo throughout. The away team's red card introduced significant distortion in the second half, enabling Brugge to extend their lead and secure the points. As the stronger team, Club Brugge delivered a performance aligned with expectations, featuring minimal structural deviation of 2.1%. The outcome was market-aligned, and efficiency remained in line. Absence of xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis, but possession and event impacts highlight Brugge's control. Sint-Truiden struggled post-red card, unable to mount a comeback.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Minimal structural deviation of 2.1% favored Club Brugge's victory.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable xG data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment achieved through Club Brugge's expected home win.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable without recorded xG metrics.
  • Event impact: Sint-Truiden's red card created substantial event impact on match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion shaped second-half adjustments and final score.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Vergoote

Belgium 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Geerolf

1st Assistant

Belgium

M. Seeldraeyers

2nd Assistant

Belgium

M. Ledda

4th Official

Belgium

League averages

Pro League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.17
Yellow cards / match 3.22
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.34
Club Brugge I. Leko
I. Leko
VS
Sint-Truiden W. Vrancken
W. Vrancken
2.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Anderlecht Rank: 73 W
Gent Rank: 72 W
Mechelen Rank: 70 W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 L
Sint-Truiden Rank: 78 W
Anderlecht Rank: 73 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 86 W
Mechelen Rank: 69 W
Anderlecht Rank: 74 W
Gent Rank: 71 D
Club Brugge Rank: 86 L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 86 L
23
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
23 - 10 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Club Brugge
97.86%
Draw
1.92%
Away Sint-Truiden
0.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
86.4
78.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Club Brugge
Sint-Truiden
Power Score
86.4
78.01
League Position
2
3
Global Rank
28
78

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Club Brugge — Opponent-weighted form score
Sint-Truiden — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Club Brugge Sint-Truiden

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Club Brugge

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sint-Truiden

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Club Brugge ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sint-Truiden
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.25
21.03
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.03
45.25
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Club Brugge +2.30 Efficiency Index
vs
Sint-Truiden -2.30 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Club Brugge
Sint-Truiden
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Club Brugge ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sint-Truiden
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Club Brugge Sint-Truiden
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Club Brugge Sint-Truiden
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Club Brugge
Sint-Truiden
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Club Brugge
vs
Sint-Truiden
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Club Brugge Sint-Truiden
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Club Brugge 0.33
Sint-Truiden 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Club Brugge Sint-Truiden
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Club Brugge 0.00
Sint-Truiden 0.03
Club Brugge
Sint-Truiden
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BRU had peak pressure around 71'.
  • BRU started the game with stronger pressure.
BRU Pressure SIT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BRU reached the top pressure at 71' (82.31).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Club Brugge BRU Home
37 matches
Sint-Truiden SIT Away
Match Record
23
Wins
4
10
Draws
10
4
Losses
23
Goals
76
Goals Scored
35
35
Goals Conceded
76
+41
Goal Difference
-41

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:05:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. van den Heuvel
Netherlands
16 D. van den Heuvel
H. Siquet
Belgium
41 H. Siquet
J. Ordóñez Guerrero
Substitution
Ecuador
4 J. Ordóñez Guerrero
B. Mechele
Belgium
44 B. Mechele
J. Seys
Substitution
Belgium
65 J. Seys
C. Sandra
Belgium
11 C. Sandra
A. Stankovic
Substitution
Serbia
25 A. Stankovic
C. Borges
Substitution
Portugal
9 C. Borges
H. Vanaken
Belgium
20 H. Vanaken
C. Tzolis
Greece
8 C. Tzolis
N. Tresoldi
Substitution
Germany
7 N. Tresoldi
Pitch
L. Kokubo
Japan
16 L. Kokubo
J. Pupe
Belgium
23 J. Pupe
V. Musliu
Macedonia
26 V. Musliu
S. Taniguchi
Substitution
Japan
5 S. Taniguchi
T. Hata
Substitution
Japan
3 T. Hata
A. Sissako
Substitution
France
8 A. Sissako
R. Merlen
France
14 R. Merlen
I. Sebaoui
Substitution
Morocco
10 I. Sebaoui
R. Ito
Substitution
Japan
13 R. Ito
R. Vanwesemael
Belgium
60 R. Vanwesemael
K. Goto
Japan
42 K. Goto

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 7 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Jan Breydelstadion
Capacity :
29975
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Michael Geerolf
Michele Seeldraeyers
Jasper Vergoote
Massimiliano Ledda

Statistics

Possession
BRU
60%
SIT
40%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
6 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 1
72 Dangerous attacks 24
61 Possession 39
6 Corners 2
5 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Assists 0
14 Dribble Attempts 9
1 Injuries 1
76 Ball Safe 79
14 Throwins 7
5 Substitutions 5
8 Successful Dribbles 7
4 Goal Kicks 12
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 78
1 Hit Woodwork 0
16 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

4 Big Chances Missed 1
113 Attacks 71

Possession

89 Successful Passes Percentage 81
60 Long Passes 45
33 Successful Long Passes 13
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
669 Passes 436
594 Successful Passes 355
21 Key Passes 6

Defensive

2 Saves 7
8 Interceptions 7
9 Tackles 10
34 Duels Won 38

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 1
16 Total Crosses 6

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
7 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Jasper Vergoote

Starting XI ▼

16
Dani van den Heuvel
Dani van den Heuvel Goalkeeper
4
Joel Ordóñez
Joel Ordóñez Defender
58
Jorne Spileers
Jorne Spileers
Defender81'
41
Hugo Siquet
Hugo Siquet Defender
44
Brandon Mechele
Brandon Mechele Defender
65
Joaquin Seys
Joaquin Seys Defender
14
Bjorn Meijer
Bjorn Meijer
Defender81'
8
Christos Tzolis
Christos Tzolis Midfielder
9
Carlos Forbs
Carlos Forbs Midfielder
67
Mamadou Diakhon
Mamadou Diakhon
Attacker88'
11
Cisse Sandra
Cisse Sandra Midfielder
20
Hans Vanaken
Hans Vanaken Midfielder
25
Aleksandar Stanković
Aleksandar Stanković Midfielder
62
Lynnt Audoor
Lynnt Audoor
Midfielder81'
7
Nicolò Tresoldi
Nicolò Tresoldi Attacker
17
Romeo Vermant
Romeo Vermant
Attacker73'
Referee : Jasper Vergoote

Starting XI ▼

16
Leo Kokubo
Leo Kokubo Goalkeeper
3
Taiga Hata
Taiga Hata Defender
18
Simen Juklerød
Simen Juklerød
Defender64'
5
Shogo Taniguchi
Shogo Taniguchi Defender
77
Oumar Diouf
Oumar Diouf
Attacker82'
23
Joedrick Pupe
Joedrick Pupe Defender
26
Visar Musliu
Visar Musliu Defender
8
Abdoulaye Sissako
Abdoulaye Sissako Midfielder
33
Alouis Diriken
Alouis Diriken
Midfielder82'
10
Ilias Sebaoui
Ilias Sebaoui Midfielder
38
Kaito Matsuzawa
Kaito Matsuzawa
Attacker73'
13
Ryotaro Ito
Ryotaro Ito Midfielder
4
Loïc Mbe Soh
Loïc Mbe Soh
Defender82'
14
Ryan Merlen
Ryan Merlen Midfielder
60
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael Midfielder
42
Keisuke Goto
Keisuke Goto Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mamadou Diakhon → Carlos Forbs
10th Substitution
88'
82'
Event
Oumar Diouf → Shogo Taniguchi
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Alouis Diriken → Abdoulaye Sissako
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Loïc Mbe Soh → Ryotaro Ito
9th Substitution
Event
Jorne Spileers → Joel Ordóñez
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Lynnt Audoor → Aleksandar Stanković
4th Substitution
81'
Event
Bjorn Meijer → Joaquin Seys
5th Substitution
81'
77'
Event
Shogo Taniguchi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Romeo Vermant → Nicolò Tresoldi
3rd Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Kaito Matsuzawa → Ilias Sebaoui
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Simen Juklerød → Taiga Hata
1st Substitution
63'
Event
Ryan Merlen
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
Event
Var
62'
Event
Carlos Forbs
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
52'
1ST-HALF
Event
Nicolò Tresoldi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
13'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Mamadou Diakhon takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Hans Vanaken takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Siquet takes a left-footed shot but misses.
88
Update Update
Mamadou Diakhon is on, and Carlos Borges is off.
86
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Borges takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
82
Update Update
Loic Mbe Soh comes on for Ryotaro Ito.
82
Update Update
Oumar Diouf is on, and Shogo Taniguchi is off.
82
Update Update
Alouis Diriken is on, and Abdoulaye Sissako is off.
81
Update Update
Lynnt Audoor replaces Aleksandar Stankovic.
81
Update Update
Bjorn Meijer comes on for Joaquin Seys.
81
Update Update
Jorne Spileers comes on for Joel Leandro Ordonez Guerrero.
80
Attempt Attempt
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael takes a left-footed shot but misses.
80
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Borges takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
76
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Romeo Vermant with his right foot is saved.
75
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Siquet's right-footed shot is blocked.
73
Update Update
Romeo Vermant is on, and Nicolo Tresoldi is off.
73
Update Update
Kaito Matsuzawa comes on for Ilias Sebaoui.
73
Attempt Attempt
Ilias Sebaoui takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Attempt Attempt
Nicolo Tresoldi takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
70
Attempt Attempt
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael's right-footed shot is blocked.
69
Attempt Attempt
Keisuke Goto takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Cisse Sandra's left-footed shot is saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Nicolo Tresoldi attempts a header but misses the shot.
64
Update Update
Simen Juklerod is on, and Taiga Hata is off.
62
Red Card Red Card Important
Ryan Merlen receives a red card.
59
Update Update
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside.
58
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Siquet takes a left-footed shot but misses.
57
Attempt Attempt
Ilias Sebaoui takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Borges scores with a left-footed shot.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Carlos Borges scores, making it 2-0.
50
Attempt Attempt
Christos Tzolis takes a left-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Christos Tzolis has a shot with his right foot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Merlen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Cisse Sandra takes a left-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Christos Tzolis takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Hans Vanaken takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Hans Vanaken takes a left-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Nicolo Tresoldi takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Ryotaro Ito takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Borges takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandar Stankovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Joaquin Seys takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Nicolo Tresoldi takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nicolo Tresoldi scores to make it 1-0.
10
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandar Stankovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Club Brugge's 2-0 triumph over Sint-Truiden exemplified controlled dominance, with 61% possession and a halftime lead of 1-0 setting the foundation. Sint-Truiden's red card distorted proceedings, amplifying Brugge's advantage and preventing any away recovery. Minimal 2.1% structural deviation and market alignment reflect the result's predictability for the stronger home side. Efficiency held steady, though xG absence curtails precision on chance conversion. This outcome underscores Brugge's tactical edge and ability to exploit numerical superiority, solidifying their standing while exposing Sint-Truiden's vulnerability under pressure.

Club Brugge vs Sint-Truiden preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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