Málaga vs Sporting Gijón Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio La Rosaleda Sat, 9 May - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
Málaga MLA
Versus
Sporting Gijón SPO
KICKOFF : Sat, 9 May - 7:00 PM
Round 39 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Málaga host Sporting Gijón in La Liga 2 (Regular Season) at Estadio La Rosaleda. Domestically, Málaga sit 6th in the table while Sporting Gijón are 12th. Power ranking favours Málaga by 5.6 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Málaga possesses a 5.6-point power score edge and home advantage at Estadio La Rosaleda over Sporting Gijón.
  • Form: Málaga's form score reaches 24.61, well ahead of Sporting Gijón's 11.89.
  • Squad: Málaga ranks 6th in La Liga 2 standings, superior to Sporting Gijón's 12th place.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics remain unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data unavailable in provided statistics.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance uses low-confidence proxy metrics with no xG available for either team.
  • xVariable: xG-based variables absent due to metadata limitations on both squads.
  • Market: Málaga 56.6% (Δ+0.2%) | Draw 23.3% (Δ-0.3%) | Sporting Gijón 20.1% (Δ+0.1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
VS
Sporting Gijón B. Jiménez Sáez
B. Jiménez Sáez
1.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
SD Eibar Rank: 70 W
Castellón Rank: 67 L
Almería Rank: 68 L
Las Palmas Rank: 71 W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 69 D
FC Andorra Rank: 66 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ceuta Rank: 61 L
Córdoba Rank: 62 L
Cádiz Rank: 57 W
Burgos Rank: 67 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 59 W
Racing Santander Rank: 71 L
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 9 - 6
6
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Málaga
56.59%
Draw
23.27%
Away Sporting Gijón
20.14%

Movement

Changes since opening
Málaga
+0.19%
Draw
-0.3%
Sporting Gijón
+0.11%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.11
63.54
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Málaga
Sporting Gijón
Power Score
69.11
63.54
League Position
6
12
Global Rank
227
374

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting Gijón — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Málaga Sporting Gijón

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Málaga MLA Home
29 matches
Sporting Gijón SPO Away
Match Record
14
Wins
6
9
Draws
9
6
Losses
14
Goals
41
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
41
+12
Goal Difference
-12

Data last updated: 2026-05-06T01:02:13+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Herrero Peinador
1 A. Herrero Peinador
C. Puga Medina
3 C. Puga Medina
D. Murillo Dominguez
16 D. Murillo Dominguez
E. Galilea Azaceta
4 E. Galilea Azaceta
R. Garrido Hierro
31 R. Garrido Hierro
D. Larrubia Romano
10 D. Larrubia Romano
R. Rodríguez Ruiz
37 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
I. Merino Rodríguez
23 I. Merino Rodríguez
J. Muñoz Benavides
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
C. Ruiz Rubio
9 C. Ruiz Rubio
C. Dotor Gonzalez
12 C. Dotor Gonzalez
O. Yáñez Alabart
1 O. Yáñez Alabart
D. Sánchez Pérez
5 D. Sánchez Pérez
A. Cuenca Cejudo
44 A. Cuenca Cejudo
P. Vázquez Pérez
15 P. Vázquez Pérez
G. Rosas Alonso
2 G. Rosas Alonso
J. Smith
24 J. Smith
M. Rodríguez Paz
36 M. Rodríguez Paz
G. Campos Ansó Fernández
7 G. Campos Ansó Fernández
A. Corredera Alardi
14 A. Corredera Alardi
C. Gelabert Pina
10 C. Gelabert Pina
J. Dubasin
17 J. Dubasin

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 39 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio La Rosaleda
Capacity :
30044
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper
6.96
10
David Larrubia
David Larrubia Midfielder
7.14
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
6.88
9
Chupe
Chupe Attacker
7.11
12
Carlos Dotor
Carlos Dotor Attacker
6.88
4
Einar Galilea
Einar Galilea Left Back
6.81
23
Izan Merino
Izan Merino Central Midfield
6.67
37
Rafa Rodríguez
Rafa Rodríguez Central Midfield
6.73
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Right Back
6.92
16
Diego Murillo
Diego Murillo Right Back
6.99
31
Rafita Garrido
Rafita Garrido Left Back
6.75

Starting XI ▼

1
Rubén Yáñez
Rubén Yáñez Goalkeeper
6.83
17
Jonathan Dubasin
Jonathan Dubasin Centre Forward
7.1
2
Guille Rosas
Guille Rosas Right Back
6.89
7
Gaspar Campos
Gaspar Campos Left Wing
6.81
24
Justin Smith
Justin Smith Defensive Midfield
6.61
44
Andrés Cuenca
Andrés Cuenca Left Back
6.65
5
Diego Sánchez
Diego Sánchez Left Back
6.69
10
César Gelabert
César Gelabert Right Wing
7.08
14
Àlex Corredera
Àlex Corredera Attacking Midfield
7.08
15
Pablo Vázquez
Pablo Vázquez Right Back
6.96
36
Manu Rodríguez
Manu Rodríguez Defensive Midfield
6.63

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Málaga holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Málaga a 5.6-point edge. External projection is Málaga 57.4%, draw 23.4%, and Sporting Gijón 19.3%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

Málaga vs Sporting Gijón preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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