Motherwell vs Hearts Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Fir Park Sat, 9 May - 7:00 PM
Premiership
Motherwell MOT
1 – 1
Hearts Hearts
Full Time Sat, 9 May 7:00 PM
Round 36 2nd Phase
Stephen Kingsley - 25' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Lawrence Shankland - 43'

CONTEXT

Motherwell and Hearts played out an entertaining 1-1 draw in the Scottish Premiership at Fir Park. The home side took the lead in the first half, but Hearts responded swiftly to level the score before halftime, making it 1-1 at the break. Possession was closely contested, with Motherwell holding 46% and Hearts enjoying a slight edge at 54%. Despite Hearts entering as the stronger team on paper, Motherwell's defensive resilience and counter-attacking threat kept the game balanced. No red cards were shown, and there were no major second-half adjustments noted. The result represents a significant structural deviation, particularly for Hearts, who failed to capitalize on their advantages. Both teams shared the spoils in a match full of end-to-end action, with neither side able to find a winner in the closing stages.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant structural deviation of 72.4% favored Hearts but resulted in a draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was not achieved in the 1-1 draw.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No key events or second-half adjustments altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards issued, resulting in zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. McLean

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. MacLeod

1st Assistant

Scotland

S. Anderson

2nd Assistant

Scotland

G. Hanvidge

4th Official

Scotland

League averages

Premiership Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.77
Yellow cards / match 3.13
Red cards / match 0.19
Penalties / match 0.21
Motherwell J. Askou
J. Askou
VS
Hearts D. McInnes
D. McInnes
1.72
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.96
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Falkirk Rank: 64 L
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Hearts Rank: 75 L
Falkirk Rank: 66 L
Hibernian Rank: 68 D
Celtic Rank: 78 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Hibernian Rank: 68 W
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Livingston Rank: 55 D
Dundee Rank: 59 W
Kilmarnock Rank: 58 L
23
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
23 - 10 - 30
30

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Motherwell
34.06%
Draw
27.61%
Away Hearts
38.33%

Movement

Changes since opening
Motherwell
+29.56%
Draw
-62.34%
Hearts
+32.77%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.94
74.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Motherwell
Hearts
Power Score
66.94
74.63
League Position
4
1
Global Rank
270
123

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Motherwell Hearts

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Motherwell

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hearts

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Motherwell ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hearts
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.76
25.28
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.28
20.76
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Motherwell -0.44 Efficiency Index
vs
Hearts +0.44 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Motherwell
Hearts
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Motherwell ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hearts
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Motherwell Hearts
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Motherwell Hearts
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Motherwell
Hearts
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Motherwell
vs
Hearts
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Motherwell Hearts
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Motherwell 0.26
Hearts 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Motherwell Hearts
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Motherwell 0.02
Hearts 0.03
Motherwell
Hearts
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Hearts had peak pressure around 84'.
  • MOT started the game with stronger pressure.
MOT Pressure Hearts Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Hearts reached the top pressure at 84' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 63 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Motherwell MOT Home
63 matches
Hearts Hearts Away
Match Record
23
Wins
30
10
Draws
10
30
Losses
23
Goals
66
Goals Scored
89
89
Goals Conceded
66
-23
Goal Difference
+23

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:05:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
C. Ward
England
13 C. Ward
S. O'Donnell
Scotland
2 S. O'Donnell
L. Gordon
Scotland
4 L. Gordon
S. Welsh
Scotland
57 S. Welsh
M. Emmanuel
England
45 M. Emmanuel
E. Watt
Scotland
20 E. Watt
O. Priestman
Australia
25 O. Priestman
I. Sa’id
Substitution
Nigeria
90 I. Sa’id
C. Slattery
England
8 C. Slattery
T. Maswanhise
Substitution
Zimbabwe
18 T. Maswanhise
E. Just
Substitution
New Zealand
21 E. Just
Pitch
A. Schwolow
Germany
25 A. Schwolow
S. Findlay
Scotland
19 S. Findlay
C. Halkett
Substitution
Scotland
4 C. Halkett
M. Steinwender
Austria
15 M. Steinwender
S. Kingsley
Substitution
Scotland
3 S. Kingsley
M. Leonard
Substitution
Scotland
49 M. Leonard
B. Baningime
DR Congo
6 B. Baningime
J. Altena
Netherlands
23 J. Altena
B. Spittal
Substitution
Scotland
16 B. Spittal
C. Soares Braga
Substitution
Portugal
10 C. Soares Braga
L. Shankland
Scotland
9 L. Shankland

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 36 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Fir Park
Capacity :
13742
Attendance :
12306
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Steven McLean
Ross MacLeod
Scott Robert Anderson
Gary Hanvidge

Statistics

Possession
MOT
46%
Hearts
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 3
1 Shots 5
31 Dangerous attacks 53
46 Possession 54
2 Corners 6
14 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

17 Throwins 18
23 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
7 Goal Kicks 6
13 Dribble Attempts 7
1 Injuries 5
6 Goal Attempts 6
93 Ball Safe 82
3 Successful Dribbles 2
3 Substitutions 5

Attacking

70 Attacks 115
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

6 Key Passes 8
77 Successful Passes Percentage 75
61 Long Passes 80
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
299 Successful Passes 331
23 Successful Long Passes 31
389 Passes 443

Defensive

54 Duels Won 50
3 Saves 1
8 Tackles 24
8 Interceptions 8

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 7
8 Total Crosses 26

Discipline

9 Fouls 14
4 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Steven McLean

Starting XI ▼

13
Calum Ward
Calum Ward Goalkeeper
2
Stephen O'Donnell
Stephen O'Donnell Defender
4
Liam Gordon
Liam Gordon Defender
45
Emmanuel Longelo
Emmanuel Longelo Defender
57
Stephen Welsh
Stephen Welsh Defender
8
Callum Slattery
Callum Slattery Midfielder
18
Tawanda Maswanhise
Tawanda Maswanhise Midfielder
66
Callum Hendry
Callum Hendry
Attacker86'
20
Elliot Watt
Elliot Watt Midfielder
25
Oscar Priestman
Oscar Priestman Midfielder
90
Ibrahim Said
Ibrahim Said Midfielder
22
John Koutroumbis
John Koutroumbis
Defender77'
21
Elijah Just
Elijah Just Attacker
77
Regan Charles-Cook
Regan Charles-Cook
Attacker86'
Referee : Steven McLean

Starting XI ▼

25
Alexander Schwolow
Alexander Schwolow Goalkeeper
4
Craig Halkett
Craig Halkett Defender
2
Frankie Kent
Frankie Kent
Defender63'
15
Michael Steinwender
Michael Steinwender Defender
19
Stuart Findlay
Stuart Findlay Defender
3
Stephen Kingsley
Stephen Kingsley Midfielder
5
Jamie McCart
Jamie McCart
Defender87'
6
Beni Baningime
Beni Baningime Midfielder
23
Jordi Altena
Jordi Altena Midfielder
49
Marc Leonard
Marc Leonard Midfielder
89
Alexandros Kyziridis
Alexandros Kyziridis
Attacker46'
9
Lawrence Shankland
Lawrence Shankland Attacker
10
Cláudio Braga
Cláudio Braga Attacker
11
Pierre Landry Kabore
Pierre Landry Kabore
Attacker72'
16
Blair Spittal
Blair Spittal Attacker
14
Cammy Devlin
Cammy Devlin
Midfielder87'

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Cammy Devlin → Blair Spittal
7th Substitution
87'
Event
Jamie McCart → Stephen Kingsley
8th Substitution
Event
Callum Hendry → Tawanda Maswanhise
6th Substitution
86'
Event
Regan Charles-Cook → Elijah Just
5th Substitution
86'
79'
Event
Stuart Findlay
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
John Koutroumbis → Ibrahim Said
4th Substitution
77'
72'
Event
Pierre Landry Kabore → Cláudio Braga
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Alexandros Kyziridis
Penalty cancelled
63'
Event
Frankie Kent → Craig Halkett
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Jordi Altena
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
47'
Event
Michael Steinwender
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Alexandros Kyziridis → Marc Leonard
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Lawrence Shankland
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Stephen Kingsley
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
25'
Event
Elijah Just
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
15'

Match Commentary

89
Attempt Attempt
Elliot Watt's left-footed shot is blocked.
87
Update Update
Jamie McCarthy comes on for Stephen Kingsley.
87
Update Update
Cameron Devlin comes on for Blair Spittal.
86
Substitution Substitution
Regan Charles-Cook is substituted for Elijah Henry Just.
86
Substitution Substitution
Callum Hendry is substituted off for Tawanda Maswanhise.
85
Attempt Attempt
Tawanda Maswanhise takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Johnny Koutroumbis takes a right-footed shot but misses.
77
Update Update
Johnny Koutroumbis replaces Ibrahim Said.
76
Attempt Attempt
Alexandros Kyziridis attempts a header but misses the shot.
75
Attempt Attempt
Jordi Altena takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Attempt Attempt
Pierre Kabore's left-footed shot is saved.
72
Update Update
Pierre Kabore comes on for Claudio Braga.
70
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Braga takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Update Update
VAR decision confirms no penalty for Alexandros Kyziridis.
65
Attempt Attempt
Lawrence Shankland takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Lawrence Shankland takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
64
Update Update
Stephen O'Donnell's header is off target.
63
Update Update
Frankie Kent comes on for Craig Halkett.
53
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Said takes a left-footed shot but misses.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Michael Steinwender receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Alexandros Kyziridis comes on for Marc Leonard.
43
Attempt Attempt
Michael Steinwender takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Lawrence Shankland takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
29
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Braga attempts a header but misses the shot.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by Stephen Kingsley gives the team a 1-0 lead.
20
Attempt Attempt
Stephen Welsh takes a header shot, but it misses the target.
15
Attempt Attempt
Tawanda Maswanhise takes a right-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Jordi Altena takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Lawrence Shankland takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
1
Attempt Attempt
Callum Slattery's header is saved.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw between Motherwell and Hearts underscores the competitiveness of the Scottish Premiership, where the stronger side, Hearts, could not convert their possession edge into victory. Halftime at 1-1 set the tone for a tense second half, but solid defending from both teams prevailed. This outcome highlights significant deviation from expected structures, with efficiency holding steady. Without xG data or disruptive events like red cards, the result feels balanced yet surprising given pre-match assessments. Motherwell will take heart from the point earned at home, while Hearts may rue missed opportunities to secure all three points against a resilient opponent.

Motherwell vs Hearts preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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