Motherwell vs Hearts Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Fir Park Sat, 9 May - 7:00 PM
Premiership
Motherwell MOT
Versus
Hearts Hearts
KICKOFF : Sat, 9 May - 7:00 PM
Round 36 2nd Phase

CONTEXT

Motherwell host Hearts in Premiership (2nd Phase) at Fir Park. Domestically, Motherwell sit 4th in the table while Hearts are 1th. Power ranking favours Hearts by 7.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Hearts hold a 74.44 power score versus Motherwell's 66.74, securing a 7.7-point advantage.
  • Form: Hearts' form score stands at 34.61, dwarfing Motherwell's 13.67.
  • Squad: Hearts lead the Premiership in 1st place while Motherwell rank 4th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable due to insufficient recent data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable as xG not enabled.
  • xVariable: Advanced xG variables absent for both teams.
  • Market: Motherwell 36.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.8% (Δ-0.4%) | Hearts 36.8% (Δ+0.4%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Motherwell J. Askou
J. Askou
VS
Hearts D. McInnes
D. McInnes
1.72
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.96
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Falkirk Rank: 64 L
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Hearts Rank: 74 L
Falkirk Rank: 65 L
Hibernian Rank: 67 D
Celtic Rank: 78 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Hibernian Rank: 68 W
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Livingston Rank: 55 D
Dundee Rank: 59 W
Kilmarnock Rank: 58 L
23
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
23 - 10 - 30
30
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Motherwell
36.38%
Draw
26.82%
Away Hearts
36.81%

Movement

Changes since opening
Motherwell
+0.02%
Draw
-0.38%
Hearts
+0.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.74
74.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Motherwell
Hearts
Power Score
66.74
74.44
League Position
4
1
Global Rank
270
123

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Motherwell Hearts

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 63 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Motherwell MOT Home
63 matches
Hearts Hearts Away
Match Record
23
Wins
30
10
Draws
10
30
Losses
23
Goals
66
Goals Scored
89
89
Goals Conceded
66
-23
Goal Difference
+23

Data last updated: 2026-05-06T01:02:28+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
C. Ward
13 C. Ward
T. Sparrow
7 T. Sparrow
P. McGinn
16 P. McGinn
S. Welsh
57 S. Welsh
S. O'Donnell
2 S. O'Donnell
L. Fadinger
12 L. Fadinger
E. Watt
20 E. Watt
T. Maswanhise
18 T. Maswanhise
C. Slattery
8 C. Slattery
M. Emmanuel
45 M. Emmanuel
E. Just
21 E. Just
A. Schwolow
25 A. Schwolow
S. Kingsley
3 S. Kingsley
S. Findlay
19 S. Findlay
C. Halkett
4 C. Halkett
M. Steinwender
15 M. Steinwender
A. Kiziridis
89 A. Kiziridis
B. Baningime
6 B. Baningime
M. Leonard
49 M. Leonard
I. Chesnokov
99 I. Chesnokov
C. Soares Braga
10 C. Soares Braga
L. Shankland
9 L. Shankland

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 36 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Fir Park
Capacity :
13742
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Steven McLean
Ross MacLeod
Scott Robert Anderson
Gary Hanvidge

Expected Lineup

Referee : Steven McLean

Starting XI ▼

13
Calum Ward
Calum Ward Goalkeeper
7.08
21
Elijah Just
Elijah Just Centre Forward
7.15
7
Tom Sparrow
Tom Sparrow Right Back
6.65
16
Paul McGinn
Paul McGinn Right Back
6.94
18
Tawanda Maswanhise
Tawanda Maswanhise Right Wing
7.02
12
Lukas Fadinger
Lukas Fadinger Defensive Midfield
6.92
20
Elliot Watt
Elliot Watt Defensive Midfield
7.4
2
Stephen O'Donnell
Stephen O'Donnell Left Back
6.83
8
Callum Slattery
Callum Slattery Attacking Midfield
7.14
45
Emmanuel Longelo
Emmanuel Longelo Left Wing
6.87
57
Stephen Welsh
Stephen Welsh Left Back
6.46
Referee : Steven McLean

Starting XI ▼

25
Alexander Schwolow
Alexander Schwolow Goalkeeper
6.77
99
Islam Chesnokov
Islam Chesnokov Midfielder
6.49
89
Alexandros Kyziridis
Alexandros Kyziridis Midfielder
7.01
9
Lawrence Shankland
Lawrence Shankland Attacker
7.21
10
Cláudio Braga
Cláudio Braga Attacker
7
4
Craig Halkett
Craig Halkett Right Back
7.13
49
Marc Leonard
Marc Leonard Central Midfield
7.42
6
Beni Baningime
Beni Baningime Central Midfield
6.69
3
Stephen Kingsley
Stephen Kingsley Left Back
6.95
19
Stuart Findlay
Stuart Findlay Left Back
7.11
15
Michael Steinwender
Michael Steinwender Right Back
6.72

CONCLUSION

Hearts' superior power and form position them as favorites, yet Motherwell's home advantage at Fir Park could spark an upset in this 2nd Phase battle. The visitors' top-table status demands respect, but the hosts' 4th-place resilience offers hope. Key will be Hearts exploiting their edge without complacency, while Motherwell target disruptions in transition. Lacking detailed efficiency or set-piece insights, the focus shifts to overall execution. Expect a competitive affair where league pride fuels determination, potentially tilting toward the stronger side if they maintain discipline.

Motherwell vs Hearts preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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