Polissya Zhytomyr vs Oleksandria Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Tsentralnyi Stadion Fri, 8 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr
2 Winner 1
Oleksandria Oleksandria
Full Time Fri, 8 May 3:00 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
Oleksandr Filippov - 90'
Mykola Gayduchyk - 71'
Goal
|
Goal
Papa Ndiaga Yade - 82'

CONTEXT

Polissya Zhytomyr defeated Oleksandria 2-1 in a closely contested match that saw no goals at halftime, with the scoreline locked at 0-0. The home team asserted dominance throughout, holding 69% possession compared to Oleksandria's 31%, which translated into sustained pressure and eventual breakthroughs in the second half. Despite the visitors' resilience, Polissya's superior control and clinical finishing secured the victory for the stronger side. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing both teams to maintain their strategies without major interruptions. This result underscores Polissya Zhytomyr's structural edge, as pre-match expectations aligned closely with the outcome, showing only minimal deviation. The game highlighted efficient play from the winners, who capitalized on their territorial advantage without needing significant adjustments.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Polissya Zhytomyr exhibited minimal structural deviation of 2.6%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No significant events like second-half adjustments impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the game flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Panchyshyn

Ukraine 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Dumenko

1st Assistant

Ukraine

Y. Povazhnyi

2nd Assistant

Ukraine

S. Zadyran

4th Official

Ukraine

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 16.11
Yellow cards / match 2.89
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.23
Polissya Zhytomyr R. Rotan
R. Rotan
VS
Oleksandria V. Sharan
V. Sharan
2.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.27
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 52 W
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 41 W
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 74 L
SK Poltava Rank: 34 W
Veres Rank: 48 D
Kudrivka Rank: 41 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 54 L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 46 D
Veres Rank: 47 L
Karpaty Rank: 54 L
SK Poltava Rank: 34 D
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Polissya Zhytomyr
97.44%
Draw
1.91%
Away Oleksandria
0.65%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.8
42.97
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Polissya Zhytomyr
Oleksandria
Power Score
62.8
42.97
League Position
2
15
Global Rank
409
961

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Polissya Zhytomyr — Opponent-weighted form score
Oleksandria — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Polissya Zhytomyr Oleksandria

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Polissya Zhytomyr

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Oleksandria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Polissya Zhytomyr ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Oleksandria
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.10
26.29
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.29
37.10
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Polissya Zhytomyr +1.10 Efficiency Index
vs
Oleksandria -1.10 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Polissya Zhytomyr
Oleksandria
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Polissya Zhytomyr ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Oleksandria
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Polissya Zhytomyr Oleksandria
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Polissya Zhytomyr Oleksandria
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Polissya Zhytomyr
Oleksandria
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Polissya Zhytomyr
vs
Oleksandria
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Polissya Zhytomyr Oleksandria
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Polissya Zhytomyr 0.23
Oleksandria 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Polissya Zhytomyr Oleksandria
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Polissya Zhytomyr 0.04
Oleksandria 0.02
Polissya Zhytomyr
Oleksandria
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Polissya Zhytomyr had peak pressure around 26'.
  • Polissya Zhytomyr started the game with stronger pressure.
Polissya Zhytomyr Pressure Oleksandria Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Polissya Zhytomyr reached the top pressure at 26' (68.36).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr Home
5 matches
Oleksandria Oleksandria Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
8
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:00:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
E. Volynets
Ukraine
23 E. Volynets
G. Maisuradze
Substitution
Georgia
31 G. Maisuradze
I. Krasniqi
Kosovo
16 I. Krasniqi
E. Sarapiy
Ukraine
5 E. Sarapiy
B. Mykhaylichenko
Ukraine
15 B. Mykhaylichenko
O. Andrievsky
Substitution
Ukraine
18 O. Andrievsky
R. Babenko
Ukraine
8 R. Babenko
L. Emërllahu
Substitution
Kosovo
14 L. Emërllahu
O. Hutsuliak
Ukraine
11 O. Hutsuliak
I. Krasnopir
Substitution
Ukraine
95 I. Krasnopir
M. Bragaru
Substitution
Ukraine
45 M. Bragaru
Pitch
N. Makarenko
72 N. Makarenko
90
90
J. Behiratche
Ivory Coast
50 J. Behiratche
M. Ferreira Campos
Portugal
26 M. Ferreira Campos
B. Butko
Ukraine
91 B. Butko
D. Skorko
Ukraine
22 D. Skorko
P. Yade
Senegal
37 P. Yade
S. Buletsa
Substitution
Ukraine
10 S. Buletsa
D. Vashchenko
Substitution
Ukraine
20 D. Vashchenko
T. Cara
Substitution
Albania
27 T. Cara
B. Castillo Rosendo
Substitution
Venezuela
99 B. Castillo Rosendo

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Tsentralnyi Stadion
Capacity :
5928
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Dmytro Panchyshyn
Volodymyr Dumenko
Yaroslav Povazhnyi
Sergiy Zadyran

Statistics

Possession
Polissya Zhytomyr
69%
Oleksandria
31%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
9 Shots 3
92 Dangerous attacks 23
69 Possession 31
12 Corners 3
3 Free kicks 4

Match Overview

1 Assists 1

Attacking

99 Attacks 57

Defensive

2 Saves 7

Discipline

4 Fouls 3

Lineup

Referee : Dmytro Panchyshyn

Starting XI ▼

23
Yevgen Volynets
Yevgen Volynets Goalkeeper
5
Eduard Sarapiy
Eduard Sarapiy Defender
15
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko Defender
16
Ilir Krasniqi
Ilir Krasniqi Defender
31
Giorgi Maisuradze
Giorgi Maisuradze Defender
4
Mykyta Kravchenko
Mykyta Kravchenko
Defender87'
8
Ruslan Babenko
Ruslan Babenko Midfielder
11
Oleksiy Gutsulyak
Oleksiy Gutsulyak Midfielder
14
Lindon Emërllahu
Lindon Emërllahu Midfielder
7
Oleksandr Nazarenko
Oleksandr Nazarenko
Midfielder69'
18
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi Midfielder
27
Oleg Fedor
Oleg Fedor
Midfielder65'
45
Maksym Bragaru
Maksym Bragaru Midfielder
9
Oleksandr Filippov
Oleksandr Filippov
Attacker87'
95
Igor Krasnopir
Igor Krasnopir Attacker
89
Mykola Gayduchyk
Mykola Gayduchyk
Attacker69'
Referee : Dmytro Panchyshyn

Starting XI ▼

72
Nazar Makarenko
Nazar Makarenko Goalkeeper
22
Danil Skorko
Danil Skorko Defender
26
Miguel Campos
Miguel Campos Defender
50
Jocelin Behiratche
Jocelin Behiratche Defender
90
Danyil Vlasiuk Defender
91
Bogdan Butko
Bogdan Butko Defender
10
Sergiy Buletsa
Sergiy Buletsa Midfielder
71
Denys Shostak
Denys Shostak
Midfielder88'
20
Daniil Vashchenko
Daniil Vashchenko Midfielder
9
Dmytro Myshnyov
Dmytro Myshnyov
Midfielder78'
27
Tedi Cara
Tedi Cara Midfielder
24
Hussayn Touati
Hussayn Touati
Midfielder78'
37
Papa Ndiaga Yade
Papa Ndiaga Yade Midfielder
99
Bryan Castillo
Bryan Castillo Attacker
77
Dmytrii Kremchanin
Dmytrii Kremchanin
Attacker77'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Oleksandr Filippov
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90'
88'
Event
Denys Shostak → Sergiy Buletsa
10th Substitution
Event
Oleksandr Filippov → Maksym Bragaru
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Mykyta Kravchenko → Giorgi Maisuradze
9th Substitution
87'
82'
Event
Papa Ndiaga Yade
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
78'
Event
Dmytro Myshnyov → Daniil Vashchenko
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Hussayn Touati → Tedi Cara
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Dmytrii Kremchanin → Bryan Castillo
5th Substitution
Event
Mykola Gayduchyk
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
71'
Event
Oleksandr Nazarenko → Lindon Emërllahu
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Mykola Gayduchyk → Igor Krasnopir
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Oleg Fedor → Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
2nd Substitution
65'
59'
Event
Nazar Prokopenko → Danyil Vlasiuk
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

88
Update Update
Denys Shostak is on, and Serhii Buletsa is off.
87
Update Update
Oleksandr Filippov is on, and Maksim Bragaru is off.
87
Update Update
Mykyta Kravchenko comes on for Giorgi Maisuradze.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Papa Ndiaga Yade scores, making it 1-1.
77
Update Update
Dmytro Myshnov comes on for Daniil Vashchenko.
77
Update Update
Dmytro Kremchanin comes on for Bryan Castillo.
77
Update Update
Dmytro Myshnov is on, and Daniil Vashchenko is off.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mykola Gayduchyk scores, making it 1-0.
69
Update Update
Mykola Gayduchyk comes on for Igor Krasnopir.
69
Update Update
Oleksandr Nazarenko comes on for Lindon Emerllahu.
65
Update Update
Oleh Andriiovych Fedor comes on for Oleksandr Andrievsky.
59
Update Update
Nazar Vitaliiovych Prokopenko comes on for Danyil Vlasyuk.

CONCLUSION

Polissya Zhytomyr's 2-1 win over Oleksandria validates their status as the stronger team, leveraging 69% possession into a deserved victory after a goalless first half. The minimal 2.6% structural deviation and full market alignment reflect a performance true to form, with efficiency holding steady. Without red cards or major disruptions, the result stemmed from sustained dominance and second-half execution. This outcome reinforces Polissya's control in key metrics, setting a positive tone for future fixtures while exposing Oleksandria's challenges in converting limited possession.

Polissya Zhytomyr vs Oleksandria preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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