Monza vs Empoli Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
U-Power Stadium Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Monza MON
2 – 2
Empoli EMP
Full Time Fri, 8 May 6:30 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Filippo Delli Carri - 65'
Andrea Petagna - 29'
Goal
|
Goal
Stiven Shpendi - 90+1', 1'

CONTEXT

In a pulsating Serie A clash at UPower Stadium, Monza and Empoli shared the spoils in a 2-2 draw that defied pre-match expectations. The home side, deemed the stronger team, controlled proceedings with 65% possession compared to Empoli's 35%, launching wave after wave of attacks. Yet, Empoli's stout defending and sharp counter-attacks kept them in the contest, leveling at halftime 1-1 after a fiercely contested opening period. The second half mirrored the first's intensity, with both outfits trading goals to end even. Monza's dominance failed to yield a win, marking a significant structural deviation from projections where they were clear favorites. Efficiency levels stayed in line with chances created, though missing xG data obscures deeper insights into shot quality. No red cards disrupted play, allowing natural flow. Empoli's resilience proved decisive, snatching a point through disciplined execution against a possession-heavy foe.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Draw resulted in a significant 76% deviation favoring Monza as the expected winner.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams aligned in line with performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome consistency.
  • Market alignment: Result did not align with pre-match projections heavily favoring Monza.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable due to absent underlying data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to game dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Marcenaro

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Ricci

2nd Assistant

Italy

A. Calzavara

4th Official

Italy

V. Mastrodonato

1st Assistant

Italy

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 27.27
Yellow cards / match 4.04
Red cards / match 0.31
Penalties / match 0.29
Monza P. Bianco
P. Bianco
VS
Empoli F. Caserta
F. Caserta
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.12
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mantova Rank: 54 L
Modena Rank: 57 W
Sampdoria Rank: 52 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 51 W
Catanzaro Rank: 60 D
Venezia Rank: 71 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Avellino Rank: 54 W
Venezia Rank: 69 L
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 D
Calcio Padova Rank: 51 L
Sampdoria Rank: 53 L
Pescara Rank: 48 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 4 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Monza
55.02%
Draw
24%
Away Empoli
20.98%

Movement

Changes since opening
Monza
+48.75%
Draw
-64.77%
Empoli
+16.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.09
52.64
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Monza
Empoli
Power Score
60.09
52.64
League Position
3
15
Global Rank
298
639

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Monza — Opponent-weighted form score
Empoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Monza Empoli

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Monza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Empoli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Monza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Empoli
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.69
33.29
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.29
34.69
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Monza +0.14 Efficiency Index
vs
Empoli -0.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Monza
Empoli
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Monza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Empoli
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Monza Empoli
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Monza Empoli
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Monza
Empoli
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Monza
vs
Empoli
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Monza Empoli
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Monza 0.39
Empoli 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Monza Empoli
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Monza 0.06
Empoli 0.04
Monza
Empoli
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MON had peak pressure around 30'.
  • MON started the game with stronger pressure.
MON Pressure EMP Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MON reached the top pressure at 30' (87.99).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Monza MON Home
9 matches
Empoli EMP Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
4
Draws
4
3
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
7
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:02:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
D. Thiam
Senegal
20 D. Thiam
S. Birindelli
Substitution
Italy
19 S. Birindelli
F. Delli Carri
Italy
15 F. Delli Carri
A. Carboni
Italy
44 A. Carboni
A. Bakoune
Substitution
Italy
24 A. Bakoune
M. Pessina
Italy
32 M. Pessina
H. Azevedo Júnior
Substitution
Brazil
8 H. Azevedo Júnior
L. Lucchesi
Italy
3 L. Lucchesi
P. Cutrone
Italy
10 P. Cutrone
G. Caso
Substitution
Italy
30 G. Caso
A. Petagna
Substitution
Italy
37 A. Petagna
Pitch
A. Fulignati
Italy
21 A. Fulignati
S. Elia
Substitution
Italy
7 S. Elia
M. Lovato
Italy
20 M. Lovato
S. Romagnoli
Substitution
Italy
4 S. Romagnoli
G. Guarino
Italy
34 G. Guarino
A. Candela
Italy
26 A. Candela
G. Yepes Laut
Substitution
Spain
14 G. Yepes Laut
A. Ghion
Substitution
Italy
18 A. Ghion
L. Magnino
Italy
8 L. Magnino
M. Nasti
Substitution
Italy
19 M. Nasti
S. Shpendi
Albania
11 S. Shpendi

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
U-Power Stadium
Capacity :
18568
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Matteo Marcenaro
Marco Ricci
Andrea Calzavara
Vito Mastrodonato

Statistics

Possession
MON
61%
EMP
39%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 3
20 Shots 10
51 Dangerous attacks 33
65 Possession 35
7 Corners 4
17 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
15 Throwins 14
9 Goal Kicks 10
13 Dribble Attempts 6
16 Goal Attempts 7
2 Assists 1
67 Ball Safe 51
5 Successful Dribbles 4
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

129 Attacks 75
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

597 Passes 313
36 Long Passes 49
86 Successful Passes Percentage 77
15 Key Passes 8
512 Successful Passes 241
13 Successful Long Passes 20
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

Defensive

47 Duels Won 41
9 Interceptions 13
7 Tackles 13
3 Saves 6

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 24
4 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

10 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Matteo Marcenaro

Starting XI ▼

20
Demba Thiam
Demba Thiam Goalkeeper
15
Filippo Delli Carri
Filippo Delli Carri Defender
19
Samuele Birindelli
Samuele Birindelli Defender
6
Valentin Antov
Valentin Antov
Defender86'
44
Andrea Carboni
Andrea Carboni Defender
3
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Lorenzo Lucchesi Midfielder
8
Hernani
Hernani Midfielder
21
Leonardo Colombo
Leonardo Colombo
Midfielder70'
24
Adam Bakoune
Adam Bakoune Midfielder
47
Dany Mota
Dany Mota
Attacker60'
32
Matteo Pessina
Matteo Pessina Midfielder
10
Patrick Cutrone
Patrick Cutrone Attacker
30
Giuseppe Caso
Giuseppe Caso Attacker
26
Patrick Ciurria
Patrick Ciurria
Attacker70'
37
Andrea Petagna
Andrea Petagna Attacker
25
Agustín Álvarez
Agustín Álvarez
Attacker60'
Referee : Matteo Marcenaro

Starting XI ▼

21
Andrea Fulignati
Andrea Fulignati Goalkeeper
4
Simone Romagnoli
Simone Romagnoli Defender
99
Flavio Bianchi
Flavio Bianchi
Attacker87'
7
Salvatore Elia
Salvatore Elia Defender
15
Joseph Ceesay
Joseph Ceesay
Defender72'
20
Matteo Lovato
Matteo Lovato Defender
26
Antonio Candela
Antonio Candela Defender
34
Gabriele Guarino
Gabriele Guarino Defender
8
Luca Magnino
Luca Magnino Midfielder
14
Gerard Yepes
Gerard Yepes Midfielder
32
Nicolas Haas
Nicolas Haas
Midfielder81'
18
Andrea Ghion
Andrea Ghion Midfielder
6
Duccio Degli Innocenti
Duccio Degli Innocenti
Midfielder46'
11
Stiven Shpendi
Stiven Shpendi Attacker
2
19
Marco Nasti
Marco Nasti Attacker
77
Bogdan Popov
Bogdan Popov
Attacker72'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Stiven Shpendi
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
87'
Event
Flavio Bianchi → Simone Romagnoli
10th Substitution
Event
Valentin Antov → Samuele Birindelli
9th Substitution
86'
81'
Event
Nicolas Haas → Gerard Yepes
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Matteo Lovato
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Simone Romagnoli
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
72'
Event
Joseph Ceesay → Salvatore Elia
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Bogdan Popov → Marco Nasti
7th Substitution
Event
Patrick Ciurria → Giuseppe Caso
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Leonardo Colombo → Hernani
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Samuele Birindelli
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
67'
Event
Filippo Delli Carri
Header / 3rd Goal
65'
Event
Dany Mota → Adam Bakoune
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Agustín Álvarez → Andrea Petagna
2nd Substitution
60'
46'
Event
Duccio Degli Innocenti → Andrea Ghion
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Andrea Petagna
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
29'
18'
Event
Gabriele Guarino
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Matteo Pessina
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
4'
1'
Event
Stiven Shpendi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Steven Shpendi scores, making it 2-2.
87
Update Update
Flavio Bianchi comes on for Simone Romagnoli.
86
Attempt Attempt
Bogdan Popov attempts a header but misses the shot.
86
Update Update
Valentin Antov is on, and Samuele Birindelli is off.
84
Attempt Attempt
Agustin Alvarez Martinez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
82
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Guarino attempts a header but misses the shot.
81
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Haas takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
81
Update Update
Nicolas Haas is on, and Gerard Yepes is off.
77
Attempt Attempt
Agustin Alvarez Martinez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matteo Lovato receives a yellow card.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Simone Romagnoli receives a yellow card.
73
Attempt Attempt
Agustin Alvarez Martinez attempts a header but misses the shot.
72
Update Update
Bogdan Popov replaces Marco Nasti.
72
Update Update
Joseph Ceesay replaces Salvatore Elia.
70
Substitution Substitution
Patrick Ciurria is substituted for Giuseppe Caso.
70
Update Update
Leonardo Colombo comes on for Hernani Azevedo Junior.
68
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Candela takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Agustin Alvarez Martinez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Delli Carri takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
60
Update Update
Dany Mota Carvalho comes on for Adam Bakoune.
60
Update Update
Agustin Alvarez Martinez comes on for Andrea Petagna.
59
Attempt Attempt
Samuele Birindelli's left-footed shot is saved.
57
Attempt Attempt
Gerard Yepes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
55
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Petagna's right-footed shot is blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Marco Nasti takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Lorenzo Lucchesi's header is saved.
46
Update Update
Duccio Degli Innocenti replaces Andrea Ghion.
45
Attempt Attempt
Samuele Birindelli takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Giuseppe Caso takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Salvatore Elia takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
38
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Cutrone takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Hernani Azevedo Junior takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Andrea Petagna with his left foot results in a goal.
27
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Petagna takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Candela's right-footed shot is saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Petagna's left-footed shot is saved.
21
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Cutrone takes a right-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Hernani Azevedo Junior takes a right-footed shot but misses.
17
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Petagna takes a left-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Carboni takes a left-footed shot but misses.
8
Update Update
Samuele Birindelli's header is blocked.
6
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Cutrone takes a right-footed shot but misses.
4
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matteo Pessina receives a yellow card.
1
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Steven Shpendi scores, making it 0-1.
1
Attempt Attempt
Steven Shpendi takes a shot with his right foot and scores.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Monza exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Monza vs Empoli preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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