SC Freiburg vs Sporting Braga Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
Europa-Park Stadion Thu, 7 May - 7:00 PM
Europa League
SC Freiburg SCF
3 Winner 1
Sporting Braga SCB
Full Time Thu, 7 May 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 4 - 3
Lukas Kübler - 72', 19'
Johan Manzambi - 41'
Goal
|
Goal
Pau Víctor - 79'
|
Red Card Mario Dorgeles 6'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. SC Freiburg 3–1 Sporting Braga. The result saw SC Freiburg take the points. SC Freiburg showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 66%–34%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: SC Freiburg's 3-1 win showed a significant structural deviation of 44.3 percent.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remained unevaluated without supporting data.
  • Event impact: Sporting Braga's red card altered match momentum in the second half.
  • Red card distortion: Second-half dynamics were distorted by the away team's red card.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. Lambrechts

Belgium 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Meli

1st Assistant

Italy

S. Alassio

2nd Assistant

Italy

E. Lambrechts

4th Official

Belgium

League averages

Europa League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 26.25
Yellow cards / match 4.36
Red cards / match 0.29
Penalties / match 0.32
SC Freiburg J. Schuster
J. Schuster
VS
Sporting Braga C. Vicens
C. Vicens
1.78
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
Celta de Vigo Rank: 80 W
Celta de Vigo Rank: 80 W
Genk Rank: 76 W
Genk Rank: 76 L
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 W
Real Betis Rank: 81 W
Real Betis Rank: 82 D
Ferencvárosi Rank: 72 W
Ferencvárosi Rank: 72 L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 67 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SC Freiburg
55.7%
Draw
26.05%
Away Sporting Braga
18.25%

Movement

Changes since opening
SC Freiburg
-42.16%
Draw
+24.13%
Sporting Braga
+18.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
83.01
80.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SC Freiburg
Sporting Braga
Power Score
83.01
80.96
League Position
7
6
Global Rank
46
55

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SC Freiburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting Braga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SC Freiburg Sporting Braga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

SC Freiburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sporting Braga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SC Freiburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Braga
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.35
46.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
46.91
32.35
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SC Freiburg -1.50 Efficiency Index
vs
Sporting Braga +1.50 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SC Freiburg
Sporting Braga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SC Freiburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Braga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SC Freiburg Sporting Braga
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SC Freiburg Sporting Braga
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
SC Freiburg
Sporting Braga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
SC Freiburg
vs
Sporting Braga
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
SC Freiburg Sporting Braga
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
SC Freiburg 0.40
Sporting Braga 0.36
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
SC Freiburg Sporting Braga
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
SC Freiburg 0.03
Sporting Braga 0.06
SC Freiburg
Sporting Braga
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SCF had peak pressure around 14'.
  • SCF started the game with stronger pressure.
SCF Pressure SCB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SCF reached the top pressure at 14' (79.31).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SC Freiburg SCF Home
1 matches
Sporting Braga SCB Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:01:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
N. Atubolu
Germany
1 N. Atubolu
L. Kübler
Substitution
Germany
17 L. Kübler
M. Ginter
Germany
28 M. Ginter
P. Lienhart
Austria
3 P. Lienhart
P. Treu
Germany
29 P. Treu
M. Eggestein
Germany
8 M. Eggestein
N. Höfler
Germany
27 N. Höfler
J. Beste
Substitution
Germany
19 J. Beste
J. Manzambi
Switzerland
44 J. Manzambi
V. Grifo
Substitution
Italy
32 V. Grifo
I. Matanovic
Croatia
31 I. Matanovic
Pitch
L. Horníček
Czech Republic
1 L. Horníček
V. Carvalho Vieira
Substitution
Brazil
6 V. Carvalho Vieira
P. Rodrigues de Oliveira
Portugal
15 P. Rodrigues de Oliveira
G. Lagerbielke
Sweden
14 G. Lagerbielke
M. Dorgeles
Ivory Coast
20 M. Dorgeles
D. Tıknaz
Substitution
Türkiye
34 D. Tıknaz
J. Iria Santos Moutinho
Portugal
8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
V. Gómez Perea
Spain
2 V. Gómez Perea
R. Zalazar Martínez
Substitution
Uruguay
10 R. Zalazar Martínez
G. Baptiste
France
29 G. Baptiste
Pau Victor
Spain
18 Pau Victor

General Information

Date & Time :
May 07, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Europa League, Europe · Semi Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 4 - 3
Stadium :
Europa-Park Stadion
Capacity :
34700
Attendance :
33700
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Erik Lambrechts
Filippo Meli
Stefano Alassio
Erik Lambrechts

Statistics

Possession
SCF
61%
SCB
39%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 3
7 Shots 3
47 Dangerous attacks 39
66 Possession 34
4 Corners 8
10 Free kicks 16
0 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
21 Successful Headers 12
4 Goal Kicks 10
25 Throwins 17
70 Ball Safe 59
8 Dribble Attempts 11
3 Successful Dribbles 5
11 Goal Attempts 8
1 Injuries 1
2 Assists 1
1 Hit Woodwork 1
3 Substitutions 3

Attacking

84 Attacks 74
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
85 Successful Passes Percentage 69
501 Passes 249
11 Key Passes 12
427 Successful Passes 171
61 Long Passes 52
24 Successful Long Passes 15

Defensive

7 Interceptions 4
15 Tackles 16
3 Saves 5

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 18
5 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

16 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Erik Lambrechts

Starting XI ▼

1
Noah Atubolu
Noah Atubolu Goalkeeper
6.9
3
Philipp Lienhart
Philipp Lienhart Defender
6.87
17
Lukas Kübler
Lukas Kübler Defender
2
6.71
33
Jordy Makengo
Jordy Makengo
Defender80'
6.53
28
Matthias Ginter
Matthias Ginter Defender
7.12
29
Philipp Treu
Philipp Treu Defender
6.78
8
Maximilian Eggestein
Maximilian Eggestein Midfielder
7.05
19
Niklas Beste
Niklas Beste Midfielder
6.98
43
Bruno Ogbus
Bruno Ogbus
Defender81'
6.67
27
Nicolas Höfler
Nicolas Höfler Midfielder
6.57
32
Vincenzo Grifo
Vincenzo Grifo Midfielder
7.11
9
Lucas Höler
Lucas Höler
Attacker90+2'
6.58
44
Johan Manzambi
Johan Manzambi Midfielder
7.04
31
Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic Attacker
6.94
Referee : Erik Lambrechts

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Hornicek
Lukas Hornicek Goalkeeper
6.85
6
Vítor Carvalho
Vítor Carvalho Defender
6.79
17
Gabriel Moscardo
Gabriel Moscardo
Midfielder65'
6.58
14
Gustaf Lagerbielke
Gustaf Lagerbielke Defender
6.82
15
Paulo Oliveira
Paulo Oliveira Defender
6.63
2
Víctor Gómez
Víctor Gómez Midfielder
6.87
8
João Moutinho
João Moutinho Midfielder
6.7
20
Mario Dorgeles
Mario Dorgeles Midfielder
6.84
34
Demir Ege Tıknaz
Demir Ege Tıknaz Midfielder
6.53
77
Gabri Martínez
Gabri Martínez
Attacker77'
6.97
10
Rodrigo Zalazar
Rodrigo Zalazar Attacker
7.06
39
Fran Navarro
Fran Navarro
Attacker65'
6.64
18
Pau Víctor
Pau Víctor Attacker
6.94
29
Gorby
Gorby Attacker
6.69

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Gabri Martínez
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Lucas Höler → Vincenzo Grifo
6th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Bruno Ogbus → Niklas Beste
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Jordy Makengo → Lukas Kübler
4th Substitution
80'
79'
Event
Pau Víctor
Header / 4th Goal
77'
Event
Gabri Martínez → Demir Ege Tıknaz
3rd Substitution
Event
Lukas Kübler
Header / 3rd Goal
72'
71'
Event
Demir Ege Tıknaz
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Gabriel Moscardo → Vítor Carvalho
1st Substitution
65'
Event
Fran Navarro → Rodrigo Zalazar
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Gorby
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
62'
Event
Pau Víctor
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Johan Manzambi
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
41'
Event
Lukas Kübler
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
19'
6'
Event
Mario Dorgeles
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Lucas Holer replaces Vincenzo Grifo.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabri Martinez receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Gabri Martinez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Moscardo takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Jean Gorby's header is saved.
84
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Jose Navarro Aliaga attempts a header but misses the shot.
81
Update Update
Jordy Makengo is on, and Lukas Kubler is off.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Pau Victor Delgado scores to make it 3-1, assisted by Victor Gomez Perea.
79
Update Update
Pau Victor Delgado scores with a header.
77
Update Update
Gabri Martinez is on, and Demir Ege Tiknaz is off.
75
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Moscardo takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
74
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Moscardo takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
72
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Kubler takes a shot with his head and scores.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Demir Ege Tiknaz receives a yellow card.
70
Attempt Attempt
Philipp Lienhart takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Attempt Attempt
Jan-Niklas Beste takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
70
Attempt Attempt
Igor Matanovic's header is saved.
70
Attempt Attempt
Matthias Ginter takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
69
Attempt Attempt
Joao Filipe Iria Santos Moutinho takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jean Gorby receives a yellow card.
65
Update Update
Gabriel Moscardo is on, and Vitor Carvalho Vieira is off.
65
Update Update
Francisco Jose Navarro Aliaga comes on for Rodrigo Zalazar.
64
Attempt Attempt
Johan Manzambi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pau Victor Delgado receives a yellow card.
61
Attempt Attempt
Philipp Lienhart takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
60
Attempt Attempt
Vincenzo Grifo takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
60
Attempt Attempt
Maximilian Eggestein takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
Jean Gorby's left-footed shot is saved.
55
Attempt Attempt
Vincenzo Grifo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Johan Manzambi's right-footed shot is saved.
50
Update Update
Goal! The score is now 3-0.
49
Attempt Attempt
Matthias Ginter takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Vincenzo Grifo takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
45
Attempt Attempt
Victor Gomez Perea takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Zalazar has a right-footed shot, but it gets blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Victor Gomez Perea takes a shot with his right foot, but it hits the post.
41
Attempt Attempt
Johan Manzambi takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
22
Attempt Attempt
Johan Manzambi's left-footed shot is saved.
19
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lukas Kubler scores, making it 1-0.
19
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Kubler scores with a left-footed shot.
13
Attempt Attempt
Johan Manzambi attempts a header but misses the shot.
12
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Zalazar takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Hofler attempts a header but misses the shot.
9
Attempt Attempt
Jan-Niklas Beste takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
8
Red Card Red Card Important
Mario Dorgeles receives a red card.
1
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Hofler takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: SC Freiburg exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

SC Freiburg vs Sporting Braga preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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