Lugano vs Young Boys Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadio di Cornaredo Sun, 3 May - 2:30 PM
Super League
Lugano Lugano
1 Winner 0
Young Boys YBO
Full Time Sun, 3 May 2:30 PM
Round 35 Championship Round
Renato Steffen - 84'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Lugano secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Young Boys in a hard-fought encounter that remained goalless at halftime with the score locked at 0-0. The home side dominated possession with 54% to Young Boys' 46%, showcasing their control throughout the match. Despite the lack of xG data, Lugano emerged as the stronger team, aligning with pre-match assessments where they held a 45.7% implied probability compared to Young Boys' 30.2%. The win represented a significant structural deviation of 54.3% in Lugano's favor, underlining their efficiency in converting limited chances. No red cards were issued, ensuring the game flowed without major disruptions. Lugano's defensive solidity and opportunistic attack proved decisive, as they capitalized on their territorial advantage in the second half without any notable tactical adjustments from either side. This result reinforces Lugano's home strength and sets a positive tone for their campaign.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lugano's 1-0 win featured a significant structural deviation of 54.3% in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with expectations throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations as Lugano prevailed.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remained unevaluated owing to missing metrics.
  • Event impact: No key events or second-half adjustments altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Mandach

Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Brunner

4th Official

S. Küng

1st Assistant

D. Huwiler

2nd Assistant

Lugano M. Croci-Torti
M. Croci-Torti
VS
Young Boys G. Seoane
G. Seoane
1.91
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Thun Rank: 66 W
Zürich Rank: 51 W
Thun Rank: 64 W
Young Boys Rank: 62 D
St. Gallen Rank: 64 D
Luzern Rank: 60 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Gallen Rank: 64 L
Servette Rank: 61 D
Basel Rank: 63 D
Lugano Rank: 66 D
Lausanne Sport Rank: 56 W
Thun Rank: 64 L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 10 - 24
24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lugano
45.73%
Draw
24.04%
Away Young Boys
30.24%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lugano
-47.62%
Draw
+17.63%
Young Boys
+30%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.6
61.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lugano
Young Boys
Power Score
65.6
61.63
League Position
3
6
Global Rank
308
430

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lugano — Opponent-weighted form score
Young Boys — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lugano Young Boys

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lugano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Young Boys

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lugano ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Young Boys
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.48
36.52
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.52
31.48
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lugano -0.45 Efficiency Index
vs
Young Boys +0.45 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lugano
Young Boys
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lugano ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Young Boys
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lugano Young Boys
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lugano Young Boys
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lugano
Young Boys
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lugano
vs
Young Boys
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lugano Young Boys
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lugano 0.38
Young Boys 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lugano Young Boys
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lugano 0.00
Young Boys 0.03
Lugano
Young Boys
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Lugano had peak pressure around 71'.
  • Lugano started the game with stronger pressure.
Lugano Pressure YBO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Lugano reached the top pressure at 71' (93.58).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 43 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lugano Lugano Home
43 matches
Young Boys YBO Away
Match Record
9
Wins
24
10
Draws
10
24
Losses
9
Goals
41
Goals Scored
83
83
Goals Conceded
41
-42
Goal Difference
+42
Expected Goals
1.90
xG
1.69
1.69
xGA
1.90

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:04:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. von Ballmoos
Switzerland
16 D. von Ballmoos
A. Papadopoulos
Germany
6 A. Papadopoulos
L. Mai
Germany
17 L. Mai
H. Delcroix
Substitution
Belgium
3 H. Delcroix
M. Zanotti
Italy
46 M. Zanotti
A. Grgic
Switzerland
8 A. Grgic
M. Belhaj Mahmoud
Tunisia
29 M. Belhaj Mahmoud
Y. Cimignani
Substitution
France
21 Y. Cimignani
R. Steffen
Substitution
Switzerland
11 R. Steffen
U. Bislimi
Substitution
Switzerland
25 U. Bislimi
K. Behrens
Substitution
Germany
91 K. Behrens
Pitch
M. Keller
Switzerland
1 M. Keller
S. Bukinac
Serbia
33 S. Bukinac
L. Benito
Switzerland
23 L. Benito
G. Wüthrich
Switzerland
5 G. Wüthrich
Y. Valery
Substitution
Tunisia
22 Y. Valery
A. Gigovic
Substitution
Sweden
37 A. Gigovic
E. Fernandes
Switzerland
6 E. Fernandes
J. Monteiro
Portugal
77 J. Monteiro
A. Antonio Sanches
Substitution
Switzerland
10 A. Antonio Sanches
A. Virginius
Substitution
France
7 A. Virginius
S. Essende
Substitution
France
99 S. Essende

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 35 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Stadio di Cornaredo
Capacity :
6390
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Joël Brunner
Johannes von Mandach
Susann Küng
David Huwiler

Statistics

Possession
Lugano
52%
YBO
48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
6 Big Chances Created 3
7 Shots 1
40 Dangerous attacks 56
54 Possession 46
7 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

15 Throwins 12
11 Dribble Attempts 18
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
4 Successful Dribbles 8
11 Goal Attempts 10
81 Ball Safe 68
15 Goal Kicks 7
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
0 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Injuries 1

Attacking

5 Big Chances Missed 3
79 Attacks 123

Possession

14 Key Passes 13
344 Successful Passes 296
416 Passes 361
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53
83 Successful Passes Percentage 82
31 Successful Long Passes 27
65 Long Passes 51

Defensive

1 Saves 6
10 Interceptions 8
17 Tackles 10

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 17
14 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

7 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Johannes von Mandach

Starting XI ▼

16
David von Ballmoos
David von Ballmoos Goalkeeper
7.14
3
Hannes Delcroix
Hannes Delcroix Defender
7.01
4
Damian Kelvin
Damian Kelvin
Defender76'
6.69
6
Antonios Papadopoulos
Antonios Papadopoulos Defender
7.07
17
Lukas Mai
Lukas Mai Defender
6.98
8
Anto Grgic
Anto Grgic Midfielder
7.28
21
Yanis Cimignani
Yanis Cimignani Midfielder
6.9
7
Pablo Acebal
Pablo Acebal
Defender61'
6.7
29
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud Midfielder
6.62
46
Mattia Zanotti
Mattia Zanotti Midfielder
7.07
11
Renato Steffen
Renato Steffen Attacker
7.05
14
Ahmed Kendouci
Ahmed Kendouci
Midfielder87'
6.57
25
Uran Bislimi
Uran Bislimi Attacker
7.19
10
Mattia Bottani
Mattia Bottani
Attacker76'
6.58
91
Kevin Behrens
Kevin Behrens Attacker
7.04
9
Georgios Koutsias
Georgios Koutsias
Attacker60'
6.73
Referee : Johannes von Mandach

Starting XI ▼

1
Marvin Keller
Marvin Keller Goalkeeper
6.81
5
Gregory Wüthrich
Gregory Wüthrich Defender
6.85
22
Yan Valery
Yan Valery Defender
6.83
17
Saidy Janko
Saidy Janko
Defender65'
6.67
23
Loris Benito
Loris Benito Defender
6.89
33
Stefan Bukinac
Stefan Bukinac Defender
6.58
6
Edimilson Fernandes
Edimilson Fernandes Midfielder
7.16
7
Alan Virginius
Alan Virginius Midfielder
6.75
11
Ebrima Colley
Ebrima Colley
Attacker46'
6.84
10
Alvyn Sanches
Alvyn Sanches Midfielder
7.46
39
Darian Males
Darian Males
Midfielder65'
6.83
37
Armin Gigovic
Armin Gigovic Midfielder
6.81
13
Dominik Pech
Dominik Pech
Midfielder80'
6.6
77
Joël Monteiro
Joël Monteiro Midfielder
6.72
99
Samuel Essende
Samuel Essende Attacker
6.95
29
Chris Bedia
Chris Bedia
Attacker78'
7.1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ahmed Kendouci → Renato Steffen
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Renato Steffen
5th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Renato Steffen
Header / 1st Goal
84'
80'
Event
Dominik Pech → Armin Gigovic
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Saidy Janko
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Chris Bedia → Samuel Essende
8th Substitution
Event
Mattia Bottani → Uran Bislimi
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Damian Kelvin → Hannes Delcroix
7th Substitution
76'
65'
Event
Saidy Janko → Yan Valery
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Darian Males → Alvyn Sanches
5th Substitution
Event
Pablo Acebal → Yanis Cimignani
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Georgios Koutsias → Kevin Behrens
2nd Substitution
60'
58'
Event
Gregory Wüthrich
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Ebrima Colley → Alan Virginius
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
23'
Event
Loris Benito
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
14'
Event
Edimilson Fernandes
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Bottani's left-footed shot is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Bottani takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
87
Update Update
Ahmed Kendouci replaces Renato Steffen.
86
Attempt Attempt
Darian Males takes a left-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Antonios Papadopoulos takes a shot with his head but misses.
84
Update Update
Renato Steffen scores with a header.
80
Update Update
Dominik Pech is on, and Armin Gigovic is off.
78
Update Update
Chris Vianney Bedia replaces Samuel Essende.
78
Attempt Attempt
Joel Almada Monteiro takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Update Update
Mattia Bottani comes on for Uran Bislimi.
76
Attempt Attempt
Joel Almada Monteiro takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
76
Update Update
Damian Kelvin replaces Hannes Delcroix.
74
Attempt Attempt
Joel Almada Monteiro takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
74
Attempt Attempt
Joel Almada Monteiro takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
73
Attempt Attempt
Hadj Mahmoud takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Hadj Mahmoud takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
67
Attempt Attempt
Antonios Papadopoulos takes a header shot but misses.
65
Update Update
Mattia Zanotti's header goes wide.
65
Update Update
Darian Males comes on for Alvyn Sanches.
65
Update Update
Saidy Janko comes on for Yan Valery.
64
Attempt Attempt
Antonios Papadopoulos takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Zanotti attempts a header but misses the shot.
60
Update Update
Ezgjan Alioski is on, and Yanis Cimignani is off.
60
Update Update
Georgios Koutsias comes on for Kevin Behrens.
57
Attempt Attempt
Armin Gigovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Ebrima Colley takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Ebrima Colley takes a shot with another body part but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Behrens takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Hannes Delcroix's header is saved.
46
Attempt Attempt
Hannes Delcroix's header is saved.
46
Update Update
Ebrima Colley is on, and Alan Virginius is off.
33
Attempt Attempt
Alan Virginius takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Hannes Delcroix takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Alvyn Sanches takes a left-footed shot but misses.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Loris Benito receives a yellow card.
20
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Essende takes a left-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Bukinac takes a left-footed shot but misses.
14
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Edimilson Fernandes receives a yellow card.
12
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Behrens takes a right-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Essende takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
2
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Behrens takes a shot with his head, but it is saved.

CONCLUSION

Lugano's 1-0 triumph over Young Boys highlights their tactical discipline and home resilience, grinding out a vital win despite a scoreless first half. With superior possession and no concessions to red cards or major disruptions, they capitalized on their status as the stronger side. The significant deviation underscores their overperformance relative to expectations, maintaining market alignment. Absent xG insights, the focus shifts to their efficient execution, setting a strong precedent. Young Boys' inability to convert possession into goals exposed vulnerabilities, while Lugano's backline stood firm. This result bolsters Lugano's momentum heading forward.

Lugano vs Young Boys preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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