Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
Emirates Stadium Tue, 5 May - 7:00 PM
Champions League
Arsenal ARS
1 Winner 0
Atlético Madrid ATM
Full Time Tue, 5 May 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 2 - 1
Bukayo Saka - 44'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Arsenal 1–0 Atlético Madrid. The result saw Arsenal take the points. Arsenal showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 53%–47%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Arsenal's win featured a significant 41.2% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevents alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Siebert

Germany 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Seidel

1st Assistant

Germany

R. Foltyn

2nd Assistant

Germany

T. Stieler

4th Official

Germany

League averages

Champions League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.36
Yellow cards / match 2.89
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.46
Arsenal M. Arteta
M. Arteta
VS
Atlético Madrid D. Simeone
D. Simeone
2.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.64
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atlético Madrid Rank: 88 D
Sporting CP Rank: 89 D
Sporting CP Rank: 88 W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 90 W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 90 D
Kairat Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arsenal Rank: 97 D
FC Barcelona Rank: 96 L
FC Barcelona Rank: 96 W
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 84 L
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 84 W
Club Brugge Rank: 86 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arsenal
58.83%
Draw
22.34%
Away Atlético Madrid
18.83%

Movement

Changes since opening
Arsenal
-36.78%
Draw
+18.14%
Atlético Madrid
+18.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
98.19
89.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arsenal
Atlético Madrid
Power Score
98.19
89.04
League Position
1
14
Global Rank
2
15

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arsenal — Opponent-weighted form score
Atlético Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arsenal Atlético Madrid

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Arsenal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Atlético Madrid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Arsenal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Atlético Madrid
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.28
23.09
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.09
30.28
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Arsenal +0.58 Efficiency Index
vs
Atlético Madrid -0.58 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Arsenal
Atlético Madrid
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Arsenal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Atlético Madrid
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Arsenal Atlético Madrid
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Arsenal Atlético Madrid
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Arsenal
Atlético Madrid
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Arsenal
vs
Atlético Madrid
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Arsenal Atlético Madrid
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Arsenal 0.21
Atlético Madrid 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Arsenal Atlético Madrid
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Arsenal 0.00
Atlético Madrid 0.02
Arsenal
Atlético Madrid
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ATM had peak pressure around 56'.
  • ATM started the game with stronger pressure.
ARS Pressure ATM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ATM reached the top pressure at 56' (91.62).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arsenal ARS Home
4 matches
Atlético Madrid ATM Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
1
Goals
6
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
6
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-05-06T00:00:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
D. Raya Martin
Spain
1 D. Raya Martin
B. White
England
4 B. White
W. Saliba
France
2 W. Saliba
G. dos Santos Magalhães
Brazil
6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
R. Calafiori
Substitution
Italy
33 R. Calafiori
D. Rice
England
41 D. Rice
M. Lewis-Skelly
Substitution
England
49 M. Lewis-Skelly
B. Saka
Substitution
England
7 B. Saka
E. Eze
Substitution
England
10 E. Eze
L. Trossard
Substitution
Belgium
19 L. Trossard
V. Gyökeres
Sweden
14 V. Gyökeres
Pitch
J. Oblak
Slovenia
13 J. Oblak
M. Ruggeri
Italy
3 M. Ruggeri
D. Hancko
Slovakia
17 D. Hancko
R. Le Normand
Substitution
Spain
24 R. Le Normand
M. Pubill Pagès
Spain
18 M. Pubill Pagès
A. Lookman
Substitution
Nigeria
22 A. Lookman
J. Resurrección Merodio
Spain
6 J. Resurrección Merodio
M. Llorente Moreno
Spain
14 M. Llorente Moreno
G. Simeone
Substitution
Argentina
20 G. Simeone
J. Álvarez
Substitution
Argentina
19 J. Álvarez
A. Griezmann
Substitution
France
7 A. Griezmann

General Information

Date & Time :
May 05, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Champions League, Europe · Semi Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 2 - 1
Stadium :
Emirates Stadium
Capacity :
60704
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jan Seidel
Rafael Foltyn
Tobias Stieler
Daniel Siebert

Statistics

Possession
ARS
54%
ATM
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 7
61 Dangerous attacks 37
53 Possession 47
5 Corners 2
14 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
14 Throwins 18
6 Successful Dribbles 4
15 Dribble Attempts 14
14 Successful Headers 10
6 Goal Kicks 13
10 Goal Attempts 5
79 Ball Safe 91
5 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 0

Attacking

107 Attacks 71
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

443 Passes 384
377 Successful Passes 319
85 Successful Passes Percentage 83
59 Long Passes 49
24 Successful Long Passes 19
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
9 Key Passes 5

Defensive

48 Duels Won 45
18 Tackles 21
4 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 1

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 13
4 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

10 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Siebert

Starting XI ▼

1
David Raya
David Raya Goalkeeper
7.16
2
William Saliba
William Saliba Defender
6.82
4
Ben White
Ben White Defender
6.61
6
Gabriel Magalhães
Gabriel Magalhães Defender
7.14
33
Riccardo Calafiori
Riccardo Calafiori Defender
6.91
5
Piero Hincapié
Piero Hincapié
Defender58'
6.89
7
Bukayo Saka
Bukayo Saka Midfielder
7.18
20
Noni Madueke
Noni Madueke
Attacker58'
7.28
10
Eberechi Eze
Eberechi Eze Midfielder
7.04
8
Martin Ødegaard
Martin Ødegaard
Midfielder59'
7.07
19
Leandro Trossard
Leandro Trossard Midfielder
7.03
11
Gabriel Martinelli
Gabriel Martinelli
Attacker83'
7.17
41
Declan Rice
Declan Rice Midfielder
7.35
49
Myles Lewis-Skelly
Myles Lewis-Skelly Midfielder
6.97
36
Martín Zubimendi
Martín Zubimendi
Midfielder74'
7.07
14
Viktor Gyökeres
Viktor Gyökeres Attacker
6.93
Referee : Daniel Siebert

Starting XI ▼

13
Jan Oblak
Jan Oblak Goalkeeper
6.7
3
Matteo Ruggeri
Matteo Ruggeri Defender
6.78
17
Dávid Hancko
Dávid Hancko Defender
6.81
18
Marc Pubill
Marc Pubill Defender
6.72
24
Robin Le Normand
Robin Le Normand Defender
6.76
9
Alexander Sørloth
Alexander Sørloth
Attacker57'
7.03
6
Koke
Koke Midfielder
6.85
14
Marcos Llorente
Marcos Llorente Midfielder
7.02
20
Giuliano Simeone
Giuliano Simeone Midfielder
6.86
5
Johnny Cardoso
Johnny Cardoso
Midfielder57'
6.8
22
Ademola Lookman
Ademola Lookman Midfielder
7.03
16
Nahuel Molina
Nahuel Molina
Defender57'
6.47
7
Antoine Griezmann
Antoine Griezmann Attacker
6.98
10
Álex Baena
Álex Baena
Midfielder66'
6.58
19
Julián Alvarez
Julián Alvarez Attacker
7.69
11
Thiago Almada
Thiago Almada
Midfielder66'
6.62

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kepa Arrizabalaga
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
90+5'
90+5'
Event
Koke 
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Diego Simeone
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Mikel Arteta
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Gabriel Martinelli → Leandro Trossard
10th Substitution
83'
81'
Event
Marc Pubill
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Martín Zubimendi → Myles Lewis-Skelly
9th Substitution
74'
66'
Event
Thiago Almada → Julián Alvarez
7th Substitution
66'
Event
Álex Baena → Antoine Griezmann
8th Substitution
Event
Martin Ødegaard → Eberechi Eze
6th Substitution
59'
Event
Piero Hincapié → Riccardo Calafiori
4th Substitution
58'
Event
Noni Madueke → Bukayo Saka
5th Substitution
58'
57'
Event
Johnny Cardoso → Giuliano Simeone
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Nahuel Molina → Ademola Lookman
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Alexander Sørloth → Robin Le Normand
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Bukayo Saka
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
44'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Koke.
89
Attempt Attempt
Alejandro Baena Rodriguez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Update Update
Gabriel Teodoro Martinelli Silva comes on for Leandro Trossard.
83
Attempt Attempt
William Saliba attempts a header but misses the shot.
81
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Llorente Moreno takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marc Pubill receives a yellow card.
76
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Gyokeres takes a right-footed shot but misses.
74
Update Update
Martin Zubimendi Ibanez comes on for Myles Lewis Skelly.
69
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin William White takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Gyokeres takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
Alejandro Baena Rodriguez comes on for Antoine Griezmann.
66
Update Update
Thiago Almada comes on for Julian Alvarez.
61
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Griezmann takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
60
Attempt Attempt
Martin Odegaard takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
58
Update Update
Piero Hincapie comes on for Riccardo Calafiori.
58
Update Update
Martin Odegaard comes on for Eberechi Eze.
58
Update Update
Noni Madueke replaces Bukayo Saka.
57
Substitution Substitution
Joao Lucas De Souza Cardoso is substituted for Giuliano Simeone.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Alexander Sorloth comes on for Robin Le Normand.
57
Update Update
Nahuel Molina comes on, Ademola Lookman goes off.
56
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Griezmann takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Gyokeres takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Marc Pubill takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Marc Pubill takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Ademola Lookman's header is blocked.
44
Update Update
Goal! Bukayo Saka scores, making it 1-0.
44
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Bukayo Saka scores with a left-footed shot.
36
Attempt Attempt
Declan Rice takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Declan Rice takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Dos Santos Magalhaes takes a left-footed shot but misses.
17
Attempt Attempt
Bukayo Saka takes a left-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Giuliano Simeone takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Riccardo Calafiori takes a left-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Julian Alvarez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Daniel Siebert.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Arsenal exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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