Hearts vs Rangers Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Tynecastle Park Mon, 4 May - 4:30 PM
Premiership
Hearts Hearts
2 Winner 1
Rangers RAN
Full Time Mon, 4 May 4:30 PM
Round 35 2nd Phase
Lawrence Shankland - 71'
Stephen Kingsley - 54'
Goal
|
Goal
Dujon Sterling - 23'

CONTEXT

Hearts pulled off a surprising 2-1 victory over stronger opponents Rangers in a thrilling Scottish Premiership encounter. The visitors took a 0-1 lead into halftime, capitalizing on their 58% possession dominance early on. However, Hearts mounted a resolute second-half comeback, scoring twice to secure the win despite lower overall possession at 42%. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing both teams to play out a competitive match. Rangers' early efficiency waned, while Hearts capitalized on key moments without major structural shifts. This result highlights Hearts' resilience against a favored side, with minimal deviation from expected patterns. The game remained even in intensity post-interval, underscoring tactical discipline from the winners.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hearts recorded a minimal 4.8% structural deviation in their win.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable for alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No notable second-half adjustments or events influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Beaton

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. McGeachie

1st Assistant

Scotland

J. Bell

2nd Assistant

Scotland

R. Lee

4th Official

Scotland

League averages

Premiership Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.25
Yellow cards / match 3.39
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.23
Hearts D. McInnes
D. McInnes
VS
Rangers D. Röhl
D. Röhl
1.91
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.25
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hibernian Rank: 68 W
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Livingston Rank: 55 D
Dundee Rank: 59 W
Kilmarnock Rank: 58 L
Aberdeen Rank: 59 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motherwell Rank: 66 L
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
Dundee United Rank: 62 W
Aberdeen Rank: 59 W
St. Mirren Rank: 57 W
Celtic Rank: 78 D
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 11 - 39
39

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hearts
95.23%
Draw
4.58%
Away Rangers
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.43
76.56
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hearts
Rangers
Power Score
74.43
76.56
League Position
1
3
Global Rank
122
91

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score
Rangers — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hearts Rangers

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hearts

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rangers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hearts ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rangers
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.05
28.79
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.79
34.05
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hearts +0.52 Efficiency Index
vs
Rangers -0.52 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hearts
Rangers
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hearts ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rangers
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hearts Rangers
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hearts Rangers
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hearts
Rangers
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hearts
vs
Rangers
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hearts Rangers
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hearts 0.17
Rangers 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hearts Rangers
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hearts 0.01
Rangers 0.03
Hearts
Rangers
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Hearts had peak pressure around 76'.
  • Hearts started the game with stronger pressure.
Hearts Pressure RAN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Hearts reached the top pressure at 76' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 60 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hearts Hearts Home
60 matches
Rangers RAN Away
Match Record
10
Wins
39
11
Draws
11
39
Losses
10
Goals
50
Goals Scored
118
118
Goals Conceded
50
-68
Goal Difference
+68

Data last updated: 2026-05-05T00:03:02+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Schwolow
Germany
25 A. Schwolow
M. Steinwender
Austria
15 M. Steinwender
C. Halkett
Scotland
4 C. Halkett
S. Findlay
Scotland
19 S. Findlay
A. Kiziridis
Substitution
Greece
89 A. Kiziridis
M. Leonard
Scotland
49 M. Leonard
B. Baningime
DR Congo
6 B. Baningime
S. Kingsley
Substitution
Scotland
3 S. Kingsley
L. Shankland
Substitution
Scotland
9 L. Shankland
I. Chesnokov
Substitution
Kazakhstan
99 I. Chesnokov
C. Soares Braga
Substitution
Portugal
10 C. Soares Braga
Pitch
J. Butland
England
1 J. Butland
D. Sterling
Substitution
England
21 D. Sterling
E. Fernandez
England
37 E. Fernandez
N. Djiga
Burkina Faso
24 N. Djiga
J. Tavernier
England
2 J. Tavernier
N. Raskin
Substitution
Belgium
43 N. Raskin
T. Chukwuani
Denmark
42 T. Chukwuani
M. Moore
Substitution
England
47 M. Moore
M. Diomande
Substitution
Ivory Coast
10 M. Diomande
A. Olsen
Substitution
Denmark
7 A. Olsen
Y. Ramalho Chermiti
Portugal
9 Y. Ramalho Chermiti

General Information

Date & Time :
May 04, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 35 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Tynecastle Park
Capacity :
20099
Attendance :
18831
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
John Beaton
David McGeachie
Jonathan Bell
Ryan Lee

Statistics

Possession
Hearts
45%
RAN
55%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 3
66 Dangerous attacks 74
42 Possession 58
2 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

67 Ball Safe 78
20 Throwins 26
10 Dribble Attempts 21
3 Successful Dribbles 7
30 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
5 Goal Kicks 7
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Injuries 1

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
101 Attacks 104

Possession

71 Successful Passes Percentage 76
301 Passes 417
21 Successful Long Passes 25
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
63 Long Passes 61
215 Successful Passes 319
6 Key Passes 9

Defensive

65 Duels Won 57
15 Interceptions 7
19 Tackles 16
2 Saves 3

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 16
3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

8 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : John Beaton

Starting XI ▼

25
Alexander Schwolow
Alexander Schwolow Goalkeeper
6.77
4
Craig Halkett
Craig Halkett Defender
7.12
15
Michael Steinwender
Michael Steinwender Defender
6.72
19
Stuart Findlay
Stuart Findlay Defender
7.11
3
Stephen Kingsley
Stephen Kingsley Midfielder
6.92
2
Frankie Kent
Frankie Kent
Defender90'
6.8
6
Beni Baningime
Beni Baningime Midfielder
6.7
49
Marc Leonard
Marc Leonard Midfielder
7.46
89
Alexandros Kyziridis
Alexandros Kyziridis Midfielder
7
5
Jamie McCart
Jamie McCart
Defender82'
6.75
9
Lawrence Shankland
Lawrence Shankland Attacker
7.2
23
Jordi Altena
Jordi Altena
Defender90+4'
6.62
10
Cláudio Braga
Cláudio Braga Attacker
7.01
11
Pierre Landry Kabore
Pierre Landry Kabore
Attacker83'
6.87
99
Islam Chesnokov
Islam Chesnokov Attacker
6.46
16
Blair Spittal
Blair Spittal
Midfielder46'
6.89
Referee : John Beaton

Starting XI ▼

1
Jack Butland
Jack Butland Goalkeeper
6.89
2
James Tavernier
James Tavernier Defender
7.41
21
Dujon Sterling
Dujon Sterling Defender
6.89
25
Tuur Rommens
Tuur Rommens
Defender75'
7.18
24
Nasser Djiga
Nasser Djiga Defender
6.97
37
Emmanuel Fernandez
Emmanuel Fernandez Defender
7.27
7
Andreas Skov Olsen
Andreas Skov Olsen Midfielder
7.07
23
Djeidi Gassama
Djeidi Gassama
Attacker69'
6.97
10
Mohamed Diomandé
Mohamed Diomandé Midfielder
6.8
28
Bojan Miovski
Bojan Miovski
Attacker83'
6.8
42
Tochi Chukwuani
Tochi Chukwuani Midfielder
6.88
43
Nicolas Raskin
Nicolas Raskin Midfielder
7.34
20
Ryan Naderi
Ryan Naderi
Attacker75'
6.65
47
Mikey Moore
Mikey Moore Midfielder
6.84
11
Thelo Aasgaard
Thelo Aasgaard
Midfielder75'
7.07
9
Youssef Chermiti
Youssef Chermiti Attacker
7.12

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jordi Altena → Lawrence Shankland
10th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Frankie Kent → Stephen Kingsley
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Pierre Landry Kabore → Cláudio Braga
7th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Bojan Miovski → Mohamed Diomandé
8th Substitution
Event
Jamie McCart → Alexandros Kyziridis
6th Substitution
82'
80'
Event
Emmanuel Fernandez
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
75'
Event
Thelo Aasgaard → Mikey Moore
3rd Substitution
75'
Event
Ryan Naderi → Nicolas Raskin
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Tuur Rommens → Dujon Sterling
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Mohamed Diomandé
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Lawrence Shankland
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
71'
69'
Event
Djeidi Gassama → Andreas Skov Olsen
2nd Substitution
Event
Stephen Kingsley
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
54'
Event
Blair Spittal → Islam Chesnokov
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Lawrence Shankland
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
37'
23'
Event
Dujon Sterling
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Frankie Kent replaces Stephen Kingsley.
90
Attempt Attempt
Emmanuel Fernandez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Update Update
Jordi Altena replaces Lawrence Shankland.
90
Attempt Attempt
Djeidi Gassama takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Michael Steinwender takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Youssef Chermiti attempts a header but misses the shot.
83
Substitution Substitution
Bojan Miovski is substituted off for Diomande Mohammed.
83
Update Update
Pierre Kabore is on, and Claudio Braga is off.
82
Update Update
Jamie McCarthy is on, and Alexandros Kyziridis is off.
77
Attempt Attempt
Thelo Aasgaard takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
75
Update Update
Thelo Aasgaard is on, and Mikey Moore is off.
75
Update Update
Ryan Don Naderi replaces Nicolas Raskin.
75
Update Update
Tuur Rommens replaces Dujon Sterling.
74
Attempt Attempt
Blair Spittal takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
74
Attempt Attempt
Stuart Findlay attempts a header but misses the shot.
71
Attempt Attempt
Lawrence Shankland scores with a left-footed shot.
69
Update Update
Djeidi Gassama comes on for Andreas Skov Olsen.
67
Attempt Attempt
Alexandros Kyziridis takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
59
Attempt Attempt
Emmanuel Fernandez's header is saved.
57
Attempt Attempt
James Tavernier takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
Update Update
Goal! Stephen Kingsley scores, bringing the match to 1-1.
54
Attempt Attempt
Alexandros Kyziridis takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
54
Attempt Attempt
Stephen Kingsley takes a left-footed shot and scores.
53
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Braga's left-footed shot is saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Andreas Skov Olsen takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
49
Attempt Attempt
Lawrence Shankland's left-footed shot is blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Blair Spittal takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Blair Spittal is on, and Islam Chesnokov is off.
42
Update Update
Youssef Chermiti's header is blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
James Tavernier takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
23
Update Update
Goal! Dujon Sterling scores to make it 1-0.
23
Attempt Attempt
Dujon Sterling scores with a right-footed shot.
22
Attempt Attempt
James Tavernier takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
19
Update Update
Tochi Phil Chukwuani takes a header, but it goes wide.
14
Attempt Attempt
Diomande Mohammed's left-footed shot is blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Craig Halkett takes a header shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hearts exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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