Bodø / Glimt vs Molde Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Aspmyra Stadion Mon, 4 May - 5:00 PM
Eliteserien
Bodø / Glimt BOD
0 Winner 1
Molde Molde
Full Time Mon, 4 May 5:00 PM
Round 7 Regular Season
|
Goal
Fredrik Gulbrandsen - 36'

CONTEXT

In a shocking Norwegian Eliteserien clash, pre-match favorites Bodø / Glimt fell 0-1 to Molde at home, extending their rivals' strong form. Bodø / Glimt controlled 60% possession and created pressure throughout, yet Molde struck first in the opening half for a 0-1 halftime lead that they defended stoutly. The home side, deemed the stronger team entering the contest, pushed hard after the break but lacked the cutting edge to equalize, as Molde's backline stood firm without concessions. No red cards disrupted proceedings, and the second half passed without tactical overhauls from either bench. This outcome underscores Molde's efficiency in transition and Bodø / Glimt's profligacy, flipping the script on expectations in a tightly contested affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Molde's win showed a significant 86.4% structural deviation favoring the underdogs.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment assessment with the scoreline.
  • Market alignment: Final result diverged from pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: Missing xG metrics left expectations unmeasurable.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no disciplinary distortion in the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Saggi

Norway 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Olav Dale

1st Assistant

Norway

J. Valstadsve

2nd Assistant

Norway

G. Havig

4th Official

Norway

League averages

Eliteserien Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.11
Yellow cards / match 3.08
Red cards / match 0.08
Penalties / match 0.25
Bodø / Glimt K. Knutsen
K. Knutsen
VS
Molde M. Falk
M. Falk
2.44
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.78
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Start Rank: 49 W
Lillestrøm Rank: 56 W
Aalesund Rank: 41 W
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 60 D
Viking Rank: 76 L
Kristiansund Rank: 56 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vålerenga Rank: 60 W
Start Rank: 48 D
HamKam Rank: 58 W
Lillestrøm Rank: 57 L
Viking Rank: 79 L
Rosenborg Rank: 62 W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 7 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bodø / Glimt
69.76%
Draw
16.69%
Away Molde
13.56%

Movement

Changes since opening
Bodø / Glimt
+69.13%
Draw
+7.17%
Molde
-76.29%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
81.64
66.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bodø / Glimt
Molde
Power Score
81.64
66.4
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
49
286

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bodø / Glimt — Opponent-weighted form score
Molde — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bodø / Glimt Molde

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Bodø / Glimt

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Molde

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Bodø / Glimt ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Molde
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
51.42
10.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
10.00
51.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Bodø / Glimt +4.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Molde -4.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Bodø / Glimt
Molde
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Bodø / Glimt ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Molde
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Bodø / Glimt Molde
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Bodø / Glimt Molde
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Bodø / Glimt
Molde
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Bodø / Glimt
vs
Molde
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Bodø / Glimt Molde
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Bodø / Glimt 0.21
Molde —
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Bodø / Glimt Molde
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Bodø / Glimt —
Molde 0.00
Bodø / Glimt
Molde
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BOD had peak pressure around 74'.
  • BOD started the game with stronger pressure.
BOD Pressure Molde Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BOD reached the top pressure at 74' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 28 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bodø / Glimt BOD Home
28 matches
Molde Molde Away
Match Record
9
Wins
12
7
Draws
7
12
Losses
9
Goals
49
Goals Scored
55
55
Goals Conceded
49
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-05-05T00:02:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Haikin
Russia
12 N. Haikin
F. Sjøvold
Substitution
Norway
20 F. Sjøvold
O. Bjørtuft
Norway
4 O. Bjørtuft
H. Aleesami
Norway
5 H. Aleesami
F. Bjørkan
Norway
15 F. Bjørkan
H. Evjen
Substitution
Norway
26 H. Evjen
P. Berg
Norway
7 P. Berg
S. Auklend
Norway
8 S. Auklend
J. Hauge
Norway
10 J. Hauge
O. Blomberg
Substitution
Norway
11 O. Blomberg
K. Høgh
Substitution
Denmark
9 K. Høgh
Pitch
A. Posiadała
Poland
22 A. Posiadała
S. Kabini
South Africa
26 S. Kabini
B. Risa
Norway
33 B. Risa
S. Hansen
4 S. Hansen
H. Østervold Stenevik
Norway
18 H. Østervold Stenevik
M. Møller Dæhli
Substitution
Norway
17 M. Møller Dæhli
J. Christensen
Substitution
Denmark
14 J. Christensen
S. Granaas
Substitution
Norway
23 S. Granaas
E. Breivik
Norway
10 E. Breivik
E. Hestad
Substitution
Norway
5 E. Hestad
F. Gulbrandsen
Substitution
Norway
8 F. Gulbrandsen

General Information

Date & Time :
May 04, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 7 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Aspmyra Stadion
Capacity :
8270
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Rohit Saggi
Anders Olav Dale
Jørgen Rønning Valstadsve
Gustav Havig

Statistics

Possession
BOD
63%
Molde
37%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 3
117 Dangerous attacks 0
60 Possession 40
11 Corners 1
12 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

71 Ball Safe 90
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 23
22 Throwins 14
8 Successful Dribbles 3
2 Goal Kicks 11
20 Dribble Attempts 13
12 Goal Attempts 3
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

148 Attacks 0
2 Counter Attacks 3
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
632 Passes 427
88 Successful Passes Percentage 81
553 Successful Passes 348
59 Long Passes 56
36 Successful Long Passes 18
17 Key Passes 2

Defensive

2 Saves 8
49 Duels Won 42
7 Interceptions 13
17 Tackles 23

Build-up

17 Accurate Crosses 1
39 Total Crosses 7

Discipline

10 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Rohit Saggi

Starting XI ▼

12
Nikita Haikin
Nikita Haikin Goalkeeper
7.21
4
Odin Luras Bjortuft
Odin Luras Bjortuft Defender
7.24
5
Haitam Aleesami
Haitam Aleesami Defender
7.1
15
Fredrik Bjørkan
Fredrik Bjørkan Defender
6.97
20
Fredrik Sjøvold
Fredrik Sjøvold Defender
7.28
25
Isak Dybvik Määttä
Isak Dybvik Määttä
Defender89'
6.95
7
Patrick Berg
Patrick Berg Midfielder
7.4
8
Sondre Auklend
Sondre Auklend Midfielder
7.05
10
Jens Petter Hauge
Jens Petter Hauge Midfielder
7.17
26
Håkon Evjen
Håkon Evjen Midfielder
6.89
19
Sondre Fet
Sondre Fet
Midfielder61'
6.83
9
Kasper Høgh
Kasper Høgh Attacker
7.31
17
Ola Brynhildsen
Ola Brynhildsen
Attacker89'
11
Ole Didrik Blomberg
Ole Didrik Blomberg Attacker
7.28
21
Andreas Helmersen
Andreas Helmersen
Attacker74'
7.11
Referee : Rohit Saggi

Starting XI ▼

22
Albert Posiadala
Albert Posiadala Goalkeeper
7.25
4
S. Hansen
S. Hansen Defender
7.32
18
Halldor Stenevik
Halldor Stenevik Defender
7.06
26
Samukelo Kabini
Samukelo Kabini Defender
6.71
33
Birk Risa
Birk Risa Defender
6.97
5
Eirik Hestad
Eirik Hestad Midfielder
7.3
21
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
Attacker75'
6.62
10
Emil Breivik
Emil Breivik Midfielder
7.75
14
Jacob Christensen
Jacob Christensen Midfielder
6.74
15
Vebjørn Hoff
Vebjørn Hoff
Midfielder46'
6.79
17
Mats Møller Dæhli
Mats Møller Dæhli Midfielder
6.91
19
Eirik Haugan
Eirik Haugan
Defender85'
6.91
23
Sondre Granaas
Sondre Granaas Midfielder
7.14
31
Blerton Isufi
Blerton Isufi
Midfielder66'
6.56
8
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Fredrik Gulbrandsen Attacker
6.93
44
Igor Fabian Gosik
Igor Fabian Gosik
Attacker46'
6.45

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Eirik Hestad
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Martin Falk
4th Yellowcard
Event
Isak Dybvik Määttä → Fredrik Sjøvold
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Ola Brynhildsen → Kasper Høgh
8th Substitution
89'
85'
Event
Eirik Haugan → Mats Møller Dæhli
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter → Eirik Hestad
6th Substitution
Event
Andreas Helmersen → Ole Didrik Blomberg
5th Substitution
74'
66'
Event
Blerton Isufi → Sondre Granaas
4th Substitution
Event
Sondre Fet → Håkon Evjen
3rd Substitution
61'
56'
Event
Sondre Granaas
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Igor Fabian Gosik → Fredrik Gulbrandsen
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Vebjørn Hoff → Jacob Christensen
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Albert Posiadala
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
36'
Event
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Molde's gritty 1-0 triumph over Bodø / Glimt serves as a testament to their road warrior mentality, silencing doubters with a goal that proved decisive amid sustained home pressure. Bodø / Glimt's dominance in possession failed to yield rewards, exposing vulnerabilities in their attack against resolute defending. This upset, unmarred by cards or chaos, highlights Molde's growth under pressure and could shift momentum in the title race. For Bodø / Glimt, it's a wake-up call to sharpen finishing, while Molde gains vital confidence heading into upcoming fixtures.

Bodø / Glimt vs Molde preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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