Sevilla vs Real Sociedad Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Mon, 4 May - 7:00 PM
La Liga
Sevilla SEV
1 Winner 0
Real Sociedad RSO
Full Time Mon, 4 May 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Alexis Sánchez - 50'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Sevilla 1–0 Real Sociedad. The result saw Sevilla take the points. Sevilla showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 42%–58%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sevilla's 1-0 victory showed a significant 59.7% structural deviation from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match norms.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with market assessments.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No notable events significantly influenced the match outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Martínez Munuera

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Barbero Sevilla

1st Assistant

Spain

M. Martínez Munuera

2nd Assistant

Spain

J. Tárraga Lájara

4th Official

Spain

League averages

La Liga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.47
Yellow cards / match 4.16
Red cards / match 0.22
Penalties / match 0.3
Sevilla L. García Plaza
L. García Plaza
VS
Real Sociedad P. Matarazzo
P. Matarazzo
0.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osasuna Rank: 77 L
Levante Rank: 73 L
Atlético Madrid Rank: 90 W
Real Oviedo Rank: 71 L
Valencia Rank: 77 L
FC Barcelona Rank: 96 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rayo Vallecano Rank: 76 D
Getafe Rank: 76 L
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 D
Levante Rank: 74 W
Villarreal Rank: 84 L
Osasuna Rank: 78 W
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 7 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sevilla
40.27%
Draw
29.16%
Away Real Sociedad
30.58%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sevilla
-55.34%
Draw
+24.96%
Real Sociedad
+30.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.19
79.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sevilla
Real Sociedad
Power Score
73.19
79.93
League Position
17
9
Global Rank
139
60

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sevilla — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Sociedad — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sevilla Real Sociedad

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sevilla

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Sociedad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sevilla ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Sociedad
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.88
12.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
12.67
49.88
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sevilla +3.37 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Sociedad -3.37 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sevilla
Real Sociedad
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sevilla ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Sociedad
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sevilla Real Sociedad
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sevilla Real Sociedad
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sevilla
Real Sociedad
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sevilla
vs
Real Sociedad
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sevilla Real Sociedad
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sevilla 0.49
Real Sociedad 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sevilla Real Sociedad
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sevilla 0.00
Real Sociedad 0.03
Sevilla
Real Sociedad
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SEV had peak pressure around 19'.
  • SEV started the game with stronger pressure.
SEV Pressure RSO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SEV reached the top pressure at 19' (88.67).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sevilla SEV Home
35 matches
Real Sociedad RSO Away
Match Record
16
Wins
12
7
Draws
7
12
Losses
16
Goals
52
Goals Scored
45
45
Goals Conceded
52
+7
Goal Difference
-7

Data last updated: 2026-05-05T00:03:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
O. Vlachodimos
Greece
1 O. Vlachodimos
José Ángel Carmona
Spain
2 José Ángel Carmona
A. López Gallo
Spain
32 A. López Gallo
Kike Salas
Spain
4 Kike Salas
G. Suazo Urbina
Chile
12 G. Suazo Urbina
R. Vargas
Substitution
Switzerland
11 R. Vargas
L. Agoume
France
18 L. Agoume
N. Gudelj
Substitution
Serbia
6 N. Gudelj
C. Ejuke
Substitution
Nigeria
21 C. Ejuke
I. Romero Bernal
Substitution
Spain
7 I. Romero Bernal
N. Maupay
Substitution
France
17 N. Maupay
Pitch
A. Remiro Gargallo
Spain
1 A. Remiro Gargallo
S. Gómez
Spain
17 S. Gómez
D. Ćaleta-Car
Croatia
16 D. Ćaleta-Car
J. Martín Vicente
Spain
31 J. Martín Vicente
J. Aramburu
Substitution
Venezuela
2 J. Aramburu
J. Gorrotxategi Etxaniz
Substitution
Spain
4 J. Gorrotxategi Etxaniz
B. Turrientes Imaz
Substitution
Spain
8 B. Turrientes Imaz
P. Marín Tejada
Substitution
Spain
15 P. Marín Tejada
C. Soler Barragán
Spain
18 C. Soler Barragán
A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
Substitution
Spain
7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Spain
10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte

General Information

Date & Time :
May 04, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán
Capacity :
42714
Attendance :
40792
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Juan Martínez Munuera
Diego Barbero Sevilla
Miguel Martínez Munuera
Jorge Tárraga Lájara

Statistics

Possession
SEV
46%
RSO
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 1
39 Dangerous attacks 27
42 Possession 58
3 Corners 3
11 Free kicks 19
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

13 Successful Headers 17
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 32
10 Dribble Attempts 22
12 Throwins 26
4 Goal Kicks 8
5 Successful Dribbles 7
5 Substitutions 5
72 Ball Safe 79
1 Injuries 1
13 Goal Attempts 1
1 Assists 0

Attacking

91 Attacks 112
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

79 Successful Passes Percentage 84
275 Successful Passes 405
47 Long Passes 44
24 Successful Long Passes 22
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
13 Key Passes 6
346 Passes 481

Defensive

56 Duels Won 54
11 Interceptions 5
27 Tackles 13
0 Saves 4

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 18
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

19 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Juan Martínez Munuera

Starting XI ▼

1
Odysseas Vlachodimos
Odysseas Vlachodimos Goalkeeper
6.73
2
José Ángel Carmona
José Ángel Carmona Defender
6.65
4
Kike Salas
Kike Salas Defender
6.88
12
Gabriel Suazo
Gabriel Suazo Defender
6.87
32
Andrés Castrín
Andrés Castrín Defender
6.84
6
Nemanja Gudelj
Nemanja Gudelj Midfielder
6.74
19
Batista Mendy
Batista Mendy
Midfielder82'
6.68
11
Rubén Vargas
Rubén Vargas Midfielder
6.86
16
Juanlu Sánchez
Juanlu Sánchez
Midfielder75'
6.63
18
Lucien Agoumé
Lucien Agoumé Midfielder
6.82
21
Chidera Ejuke
Chidera Ejuke Midfielder
6.78
36
Oso
Oso
Defender90+1'
6.78
7
Isaac Romero
Isaac Romero Attacker
6.57
10
Alexis Sánchez
Alexis Sánchez
Attacker46'
6.72
17
Neal Maupay
Neal Maupay Attacker
6.73
14
Peque Fernández
Peque Fernández
Attacker90+1'
6.73
Referee : Juan Martínez Munuera

Starting XI ▼

1
Álex Remiro
Álex Remiro Goalkeeper
6.79
2
Jon Aramburu
Jon Aramburu Defender
6.76
22
Wesley
Wesley
Attacker82'
6.42
16
Duje Caleta-Car
Duje Caleta-Car Defender
6.79
17
Sergio Gómez
Sergio Gómez Defender
6.93
31
Jon Martín
Jon Martín Defender
6.92
4
Jon Gorrotxategi
Jon Gorrotxategi Midfielder
6.8
9
Orri Óskarsson
Orri Óskarsson
Attacker46'
6.86
7
Ander Barrenetxea
Ander Barrenetxea Midfielder
6.89
24
Luka Sucic
Luka Sucic
Midfielder82'
6.75
8
Beñat Turrientes
Beñat Turrientes Midfielder
6.84
12
Yangel Herrera
Yangel Herrera
Midfielder69'
6.2
15
Pablo Marín
Pablo Marín Midfielder
6.49
14
Takefusa Kubo
Takefusa Kubo
Attacker58'
7.04
18
Carlos Soler
Carlos Soler Midfielder
7.09
10
Mikel Oyarzabal
Mikel Oyarzabal Attacker
7.17

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Oso → Chidera Ejuke
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Peque Fernández → Neal Maupay
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
José Ángel Carmona
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
88'
Event
Batista Mendy → Nemanja Gudelj
6th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Wesley → Jon Aramburu
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Luka Sucic → Ander Barrenetxea
7th Substitution
Event
Juanlu Sánchez → Rubén Vargas
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Alexis Sánchez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
75'
69'
Event
Yangel Herrera → Beñat Turrientes
4th Substitution
58'
Event
Takefusa Kubo → Pablo Marín
3rd Substitution
Event
Alexis Sánchez
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
50'
Event
Alexis Sánchez → Isaac Romero
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Orri Óskarsson → Jon Gorrotxategi
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Luis Garcia
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
28'
28'
Event
Jon Aramburu
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Peque Fernandez replaces Neal Maupay.
90
Update Update
On comes Oso, off goes Chidera Ejuke.
90
Attempt Attempt
Takefusa Kubo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Soler Barragan takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Orri Steinn Oskarsson takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jose Angel Carmona receives a yellow card.
85
Attempt Attempt
Alexis Alejandro Sanchez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
82
Update Update
Wesley Gassova comes on for Jon Aramburu.
82
Update Update
Batista Mendy comes on for Nemanja Gudelj.
82
Update Update
Luka Sucic comes on for Ander Barrenetxea Muguruza.
77
Attempt Attempt
Chidera Ejuke takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alexis Alejandro Sanchez receives a yellow card.
75
Update Update
Alexis Alejandro Sanchez is on, and Ruben Vargas is off.
70
Update Update
Yangel Herrera comes on for Benat Turrientes.
69
Attempt Attempt
Ruben Vargas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Update Update
Takefusa Kubo comes on for Pablo Marin Tejada.
52
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Soler Barragan takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alexis Alejandro Sanchez with his right foot results in a goal.
46
Substitution Substitution
Alexis Alejandro Sanchez is substituted for Isaac Romero Bernal.
46
Substitution Substitution
Orri Steinn Oskarsson is substituted for Jon Gorrotxategi.
46
Attempt Attempt
Ander Barrenetxea Muguruza takes a left-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Chidera Ejuke takes a right-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Lucien Agoume takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Neal Maupay takes a right-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Lucien Agoume takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Jon Gorrotxategi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Neal Maupay's left-footed shot is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Isaac Romero Bernal takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Ruben Vargas takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
28
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jon Aramburu receives a yellow card.
23
Attempt Attempt
Nemanja Gudelj takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Isaac Romero Bernal takes a left-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Neal Maupay's right-footed shot is saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
Lucien Agoume takes a right-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Andres Castrin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
16
Attempt Attempt
Chidera Ejuke's right-footed shot is saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Lucien Agoume takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Suazo takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Sevilla's 1-0 success over Real Sociedad exemplifies how possession superiority does not guarantee results, as the home team leveraged limited chances amid 42% ball control. Defying the visitors' stronger billing, Sevilla's goal timing proved decisive post a goalless first half. The significant structural deviation of 59.7% underscores the upset's magnitude, bolstered by true market alignment and steady efficiency. Lacking xG insights limits chance quality evaluation, but clear metrics affirm Sevilla's pragmatic approach prevailed. This result reinforces the value of defensive solidity and opportunism in tight encounters.

Sevilla vs Real Sociedad preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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