Sporting CP vs Vitória Guimarães Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio José Alvalade Mon, 4 May - 7:15 PM
Liga Portugal
Sporting CP SCP
5 Winner 1
Vitória Guimarães VSC
Full Time Mon, 4 May 7:15 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Luís Guilherme - 74'
Luis Suárez - 61'
Maxi Araújo - 45+1'
Daniel Bragança - 23'
Gonçalo Inácio - 9'
Goal
|
Goal
Zeno Debast - 85' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

Sporting CP delivered a commanding performance against Vitória Guimarães, securing a 5-1 victory in a match that showcased their superiority from start to finish. The hosts surged ahead with three first-half goals, leaving the visitors shell-shocked at halftime with a 3-0 lead. Possession was tightly contested at 52% to 48%, yet Sporting CP's clinical finishing and defensive solidity overwhelmed their opponents. Two additional strikes in the second half sealed a comprehensive win for the stronger side, who controlled proceedings without facing any red card disruptions. This result aligned closely with pre-match structural expectations, exhibiting only a minimal 2.4% deviation. Efficiency metrics stayed in line throughout, reflecting the home team's dominance without significant shifts. No major events or adjustments altered the flow, allowing Sporting CP to maintain their rhythm and capitalize on opportunities effectively.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result exhibited minimal 2.4% structural deviation favoring Sporting CP.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations across both halves.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing direct alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to lack of underlying data.
  • Event impact: No significant events or second-half adjustments impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards eliminated any distortion from disciplinary actions.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Carvalho Nobre

Portugal 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Vila Pereira

1st Assistant

Portugal

F. Serra Jorge Pereira

2nd Assistant

Portugal

D. Rosa

4th Official

Portugal

League averages

Liga Portugal Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.02
Yellow cards / match 4.4
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.38
Sporting CP R. Gomes Borges
R. Gomes Borges
VS
Vitória Guimarães G. Moreira Lameiras
G. Moreira Lameiras
2.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.48
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tondela Rank: 59 D
AVS Rank: 55 D
Benfica Rank: 86 L
Estrela Amadora Rank: 59 W
Santa Clara Rank: 66 W
Alverca Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rio Ave Rank: 64 W
Gil Vicente Rank: 69 W
AVS Rank: 55 D
Tondela Rank: 61 W
Benfica Rank: 87 L
Famalicão Rank: 74 L
25
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
25 - 9 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sporting CP
97.6%
Draw
1.91%
Away Vitória Guimarães
0.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
88.16
71.97
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sporting CP
Vitória Guimarães
Power Score
88.16
71.97
League Position
2
7
Global Rank
19
161

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sporting CP — Opponent-weighted form score
Vitória Guimarães — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sporting CP Vitória Guimarães

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sporting CP

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vitória Guimarães

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sporting CP ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vitória Guimarães
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.87
32.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.50
30.87
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sporting CP -0.16 Efficiency Index
vs
Vitória Guimarães +0.16 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting CP
Vitória Guimarães
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sporting CP ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vitória Guimarães
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sporting CP Vitória Guimarães
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sporting CP Vitória Guimarães
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting CP
Vitória Guimarães
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sporting CP
vs
Vitória Guimarães
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sporting CP Vitória Guimarães
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sporting CP 0.34
Vitória Guimarães 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sporting CP Vitória Guimarães
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sporting CP 0.02
Vitória Guimarães 0.12
Sporting CP
Vitória Guimarães
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SCP had peak pressure around 36'.
  • VSC started the game with stronger pressure.
SCP Pressure VSC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SCP reached the top pressure at 36' (83.20).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sporting CP SCP Home
39 matches
Vitória Guimarães VSC Away
Match Record
25
Wins
5
9
Draws
9
5
Losses
25
Goals
81
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
81
+49
Goal Difference
-49

Data last updated: 2026-05-05T00:03:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
R. Dantas da Silva
Portugal
1 R. Dantas da Silva
E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
Portugal
72 E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
Z. Debast
Belgium
6 Z. Debast
G. Inácio
Substitution
Portugal
25 G. Inácio
M. Araújo Vilches
Uruguay
20 M. Araújo Vilches
D. Santos Bragança
Portugal
23 D. Santos Bragança
H. Morita
Substitution
Japan
5 H. Morita
G. Cipriano Catamo
Substitution
Mozambique
10 G. Cipriano Catamo
F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
Substitution
Portugal
17 F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
P. Pereira Gonçalves
Substitution
Portugal
8 P. Pereira Gonçalves
L. Suárez Charris
Colombia
97 L. Suárez Charris
Pitch
C. da Silva
Brazil
27 C. da Silva
João Mendes
Portugal
13 João Mendes
T. Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
Brazil
28 T. Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
O. Rivas Viondi
Spain
4 O. Rivas Viondi
T. Strata
Romania
66 T. Strata
B. Mambuene Mukendi
Angola
16 B. Mambuene Mukendi
D. Lobão Sousa
Substitution
Portugal
23 D. Lobão Sousa
N. Jose Saviolo
Substitution
48 N. Jose Saviolo
F. Amorim Silva
Substitution
Portugal
20 F. Amorim Silva
J. Costa Nogueira
Substitution
Portugal
88 J. Costa Nogueira
G. da Silva Cunha
Substitution
Brazil
11 G. da Silva Cunha

General Information

Date & Time :
May 04, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio José Alvalade
Capacity :
52095
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre
Nélson Filipe Vila Pereira
Francisco João Serra Jorge Pereira
Diogo Rosa

Statistics

Possession
SCP
52%
VSC
48%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 1
9 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 8
41 Dangerous attacks 52
52 Possession 48
1 Corners 7
13 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Assists 0
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
5 Successful Dribbles 4
8 Goal Kicks 9
16 Throwins 15
13 Dribble Attempts 16
7 Successful Headers 6
5 Substitutions 5
81 Ball Safe 66
13 Goal Attempts 10

Attacking

84 Attacks 96
4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

490 Passes 455
86 Successful Passes Percentage 83
419 Successful Passes 377
42 Long Passes 43
27 Successful Long Passes 20
64 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
12 Key Passes 10

Defensive

21 Tackles 14
5 Saves 5
8 Interceptions 14
46 Duels Won 32

Build-up

6 Total Crosses 15
1 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

7 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre

Starting XI ▼

1
Rui Silva
Rui Silva Goalkeeper
6.93
6
Zeno Debast
Zeno Debast Defender
6.89
20
Maxi Araújo
Maxi Araújo Defender
7.09
25
Gonçalo Inácio
Gonçalo Inácio Defender
7.22
26
Ousmane Diomande
Ousmane Diomande
Defender82'
7.03
72
Eduardo Quaresma
Eduardo Quaresma Defender
7.08
5
Hidemasa Morita
Hidemasa Morita Midfielder
6.87
31
Luís Guilherme
Luís Guilherme
Attacker46'
6.89
8
Pedro Gonçalves
Pedro Gonçalves Midfielder
7.55
14
Giorgi Kochorashvili
Giorgi Kochorashvili
Midfielder78'
6.75
10
Geny Catamo
Geny Catamo Midfielder
7.1
11
Nuno Santos
Nuno Santos
Defender70'
6.49
17
Francisco Trincão
Francisco Trincão Midfielder
7.34
7
Geovany Quenda
Geovany Quenda
Midfielder78'
6.9
23
Daniel Bragança
Daniel Bragança Midfielder
7.1
97
Luis Suárez
Luis Suárez Attacker
7.46
Referee : António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre

Starting XI ▼

27
Charles
Charles Goalkeeper
6.79
4
Óscar Rivas
Óscar Rivas Defender
7.02
13
João Mendes
João Mendes Defender
6.77
28
Thiago Balieiro
Thiago Balieiro Defender
6.79
66
Tony Strata
Tony Strata Defender
6.68
16
Beni Mukendi
Beni Mukendi Midfielder
6.85
20
Samu
Samu Midfielder
6.94
22
Fabio Blanco
Fabio Blanco
Attacker85'
6.57
23
Diogo Sousa
Diogo Sousa Midfielder
6.83
30
Gonçalo Nogueira
Gonçalo Nogueira
Midfielder46'
6.85
48
Noah Jose Saviolo
Noah Jose Saviolo Midfielder
6.74
18
Telmo Arcanjo
Telmo Arcanjo
Midfielder79'
6.77
88
Miguel Nogueira
Miguel Nogueira Midfielder
6.73
19
Oumar Camara
Oumar Camara
Attacker62'
6.74
11
Gustavo Silva
Gustavo Silva Attacker
6.88
90
A. Ndoye
A. Ndoye
Attacker62'
6.62

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Zeno Debast
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
85'
Event
Fabio Blanco → Samu
10th Substitution
Event
Ousmane Diomande → Gonçalo Inácio
9th Substitution
82'
79'
Event
Telmo Arcanjo → Noah Jose Saviolo
8th Substitution
Event
Giorgi Kochorashvili → Pedro Gonçalves
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Geovany Quenda → Francisco Trincão
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Luís Guilherme
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
74'
Event
Nuno Santos → Geny Catamo
5th Substitution
70'
62'
Event
Oumar Camara → Miguel Nogueira
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
A. Ndoye → Gustavo Silva
4th Substitution
Event
Luis Suárez
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
61'
60'
Event
Thiago Balieiro
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Luís Guilherme → Hidemasa Morita
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Gonçalo Nogueira → Diogo Sousa
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Maxi Araújo
Goal awarded
45+3'
Event
Maxi Araújo
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
45+1'
30'
Event
Noah Jose Saviolo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Daniel Bragança
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
23'
Event
Gonçalo Inácio
Header / 1st Goal
9'
7'
Event
Diogo Sousa
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Tony Strata takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Luis Javier Suarez Charris attempts a header but misses the shot.
88
Attempt Attempt
Tony Strata takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
87
Attempt Attempt
Nuno Santos takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Update Update
Fabio Blanco is on, and Fabio Samuel Amorim Silva is off.
86
Attempt Attempt
Telmo Emanuel Gomes Arcanjo takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
85
Update Update
Own goal by Zeno Debast makes it 5-1.
82
Update Update
Ousmane Diomande is on, and Goncalo Inacio is off.
81
Attempt Attempt
Luis Javier Suarez Charris takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
79
Update Update
Ousmane Diomande is on, and Goncalo Inacio is off.
78
Update Update
Geovany Quenda replaces Francisco Trincao.
77
Update Update
Giorgi Kochorashvili replaces Pedro Goncalves.
74
Update Update
Goal! Luis Guilherme Lira dos Santos scores, making it 5-0.
74
Attempt Attempt
Luis Guilherme Lira dos Santos takes a left-footed shot and scores.
70
Update Update
Nuno Santos comes on for Geny Catamo.
65
Attempt Attempt
Geny Catamo's left-footed shot is blocked.
62
Update Update
Oumar Camara is on, and Goncalo Nogueira is off.
62
Update Update
Alioune Ndoye comes on for Gustavo Silva.
61
Attempt Attempt
Luis Javier Suarez Charris takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
61
Update Update
Goal! Luis Javier Suarez Charris scores, making it 4-0.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Thiago Balieiro receives a yellow card.
58
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Goncalves takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Goncalo Nogueira takes a left-footed shot but misses.
56
Update Update
Goncalo Nogueira replaces Diogo Sousa.
51
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Silva takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Luis Guilherme Lira dos Santos is on, and Hidemasa Morita is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Joao Mendes takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Maximiliano Araujo scores with a right-footed shot.
42
Attempt Attempt
Luis Javier Suarez Charris takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Nogueira takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
39
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Noah Saviolo receives a yellow card.
36
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Nogueira takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Nogueira takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Goncalves takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Trincao takes a left-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Braganca takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Rivas Viondi attempts a header but misses the shot.
23
Update Update
Goal! Daniel Braganca scores, making it 2-0.
23
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Braganca scores with a left-footed shot.
9
Update Update
Goncalo Inacio scores with a header.
9
Update Update
Goal! Goncalo Inacio scores to make it 1-0.
7
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Diogo Sousa receives a yellow card.
3
Attempt Attempt
Joao Mendes takes a left-footed shot but misses.
2
Attempt Attempt
Diogo Sousa takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Sporting CP's 5-1 triumph over Vitória Guimarães underscored their status as the stronger outfit, with a blistering first half setting the tone at 3-0 and second-half goals cementing dominance. Despite balanced possession, the hosts' precision in attack proved decisive, aligning seamlessly with expectations and showing minimal deviation. This performance reinforces Sporting CP's credentials, as efficiency held steady without external disruptions like red cards. Vitória Guimarães struggled to respond, highlighting the gap in quality. Overall, the result reflects a textbook execution of pre-match favoritism, providing a solid foundation for future fixtures.

Sporting CP vs Vitória Guimarães preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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