Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Liverpool Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 FA Cup, England
Molineux Stadium Fri, 6 Mar - 8:00 PM
FA Cup
Wolverhampton Wanderers WOL
1 Winner 3
Liverpool LIV
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 8:00 PM
Hee-chan Hwang - 90+1'
Goal
|
Goal
Andrew Robertson - 51'
Mohamed Salah - 53'
Curtis Jones - 74'

CONTEXT

The match between Wolverhampton Wanderers and Liverpool has finished, with Liverpool securing a 3-1 away victory. Following a tightly contested first half that ended level at 0-0, the visitors found their attacking rhythm to claim all three points. This outcome aligned completely with the pre-match betting market, which favored Liverpool with a 60.5% probability of winning, compared to just 17.7% for Wolves and a 21.8% chance of a draw. Despite the underlying dataset classifying Wolverhampton Wanderers as the stronger team, Liverpool dictated the game's tempo. They held a commanding 67% of the possession, leaving the hosts with only 33%. Expected goals (xG) metrics were completely unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the final scoreline was consistent with xG. The away victory represented a significant performance deviation for Liverpool. However, the overall efficiency shift was strictly in line with expectations, reflecting a positive efficiency rating (+1.41) for the visitors compared to the hosts' negative mark (-1.41). Finally, with zero red cards issued to either side, the flow of the game was uninterrupted by major disciplinary events, allowing Liverpool's possession advantage to cleanly translate into a decisive second-half win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Liverpool showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
F. Hallam
F. Hallam
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.38
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Stevens
M. Stevens
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.38
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Backhouse
A. Backhouse
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.38
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Burt
S. Burt
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.38
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Wolverhampton Wanderers R. Edwards
R. Edwards
VS
Liverpool A. Slot
A. Slot
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Shrewsbury Town Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 3 - 20
20

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Wolverhampton Wanderers
17.72%
Draw
21.78%
Away Liverpool
60.5%
Power Ranking data not available.

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Wolverhampton Wanderers — Opponent-weighted form score
Liverpool — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Wolverhampton Wanderers Liverpool

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Liverpool

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Wolverhampton Wanderers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Liverpool
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
15.76
35.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.30
15.76
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Wolverhampton Wanderers -1.60 Efficiency Index
vs
Liverpool +1.60 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Liverpool
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Wolverhampton Wanderers
vs
Liverpool
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Wolverhampton Wanderers Liverpool
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Wolverhampton Wanderers Liverpool
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Liverpool
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Wolverhampton Wanderers WOL Home
2 matches
Liverpool LIV Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
2
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:31:59+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 FA Cup, England
Stadium
Molineux Stadium
Capacity
32050
Attendance
29881
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Farai Hallam
Mark Stevens
Anthony Backhouse
Stuart Burt

Statistics

Possession
WOL
35%
LIV
65%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 9
24 Dangerous attacks 73
33 Possession 67
0 Corners 11
10 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Successful Dribbles 9
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 69
11 Dribble Attempts 13
11 Goal Kicks 5
9 Throwins 16
75 Ball Safe 64
5 Goal Attempts 16
1 Assists 3
4 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

56 Attacks 134

Possession

81 Successful Passes Percentage 92
40 Long Passes 43
251 Successful Passes 575
15 Successful Long Passes 25
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 58
2 Key Passes 15
310 Passes 628

Defensive

15 Tackles 13
5 Interceptions 6
6 Saves 2

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 26
2 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

13 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 3

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
João Gomes
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Hee-chan Hwang
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
90+1'
Event
David Møller Wolfe → Hugo Bueno
9th Substitution
88'
86'
Event
Kieran Morrison → Cody Gakpo
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Trey Nyoni → Alexis Mac Allister
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Ibrahima Konaté → Virgil van Dijk
6th Substitution
Event
Rodrigo Gomes → Toti
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Hee-chan Hwang → Tolu Arokodare
5th Substitution
75'
74'
Event
Curtis Jones
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
71'
Event
Dominik Szoboszlai
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
69'
Event
Jeremie Frimpong → Mohamed Salah
2nd Substitution
69'
Event
Florian Wirtz → Rio Ngumoha
3rd Substitution
Event
Adam Armstrong → Angel Gomes
1st Substitution
61'
55'
Event
Mohamed Salah
Goal awarded
53'
Event
Mohamed Salah
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
51'
Event
Andrew Robertson
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Santiago Bueno
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
17'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Florian Wirtz from Liverpool takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Sam Johnstone of Wolverhampton Wanderers makes a great save, diving to his right to stop the ball. The attempt was set up by Dominik Szoboszlai.
90
Update Update
Adam Armstrong commits a foul for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
90
Attempt Attempt
Florian Wirtz from Liverpool takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes over the bar and to the left, missing the target after a direct free kick.
90
Update Update
Liverpool is flagged for offside as Curtis Jones finds himself in an offside position.
90
Update Update
Kieran Morrison of Liverpool is awarded a free kick in the opponent's half.
90
Update Update
João Gomes commits a foul for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
João Gomes from Wolverhampton Wanderers receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
90
Update Update
Ibrahima Konaté from Liverpool is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Jeremie Frimpong of Liverpool is awarded a free kick in the opponent's half.
90
Update Update
David Møller Wolfe of Wolverhampton Wanderers commits a foul.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Wolverhampton Wanderers 1, Liverpool 3. Hwang Hee-Chan scores for Wolverhampton Wanderers with a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, placing it in the bottom right corner. The assist came from Sam Johnstone after a quick counter-attack.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded, with the final score being Wolverhampton Wanderers 1, Liverpool 3.
90
Update Update
Trey Nyoni of Liverpool is awarded a free kick in the opponent's half.
90
Update Update
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde commits a foul for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
89
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Kieran Morrison from Liverpool took a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
89
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Liverpool after Rodrigo Gomes allowed the ball to go out.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wolverhampton Wanderers: David Møller Wolfe comes on to take the place of Hugo Bueno.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Kieran Morrison comes on to take the place of Cody Gakpo.
84
Update Update
Rodrigo Gomes of Wolverhampton Wanderers earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
84
Update Update
Ryan Gravenberch commits a foul for Liverpool.
84
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Jeremie Frimpong of Liverpool takes a right-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but Sam Johnstone of Wolverhampton Wanderers makes a save in the top center of the net, with the assist coming from Cody Gakpo.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Trey Nyoni comes on to take the place of Alexis Mac Allister, who has been forced off due to an injury.
82
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Ibrahima Konaté comes on in place of Virgil van Dijk.
81
Update Update
The game has been paused due to an injury to Alexis Mac Allister from Liverpool.
80
Update Update
Hwang Hee-Chan commits a foul for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
80
Update Update
Curtis Jones from Liverpool earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
79
Attempt Attempt
The shot was blocked. Jean-Ricner Bellegarde from Wolverhampton Wanderers took a right-footed attempt from outside the penalty area, but it was successfully saved.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wolverhampton Wanderers: Rodrigo Gomes comes on to take the place of Toti Gomes.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wolverhampton Wanderers: Hwang Hee-Chan comes on to take the place of Tolu Arokodare.
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Liverpool extends their lead to 3-0 against Wolverhampton Wanderers. Curtis Jones scores with a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, placing the ball into the bottom left corner of the net. The assist comes from Ryan Gravenberch.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dominik Szoboszlai of Liverpool receives a yellow card.
70
Update Update
Hugo Bueno of Wolverhampton Wanderers earns a free kick in the defensive zone.
70
Update Update
Jeremie Frimpong commits a foul for Liverpool.
69
Update Update
Mateus Mané commits a foul for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
69
Update Update
Mateus Mané commits a foul for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Jeremie Frimpong comes on to take the place of Mohamed Salah.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Florian Wirtz comes on to take the place of Rio Ngumoha.
66
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Liverpool after Toti Gomes allowed the ball to go out of play.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wolverhampton Wanderers: Adam Armstrong comes on to take the place of Angel Gomes.
61
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Rio Ngumoha from Liverpool took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area but couldn't find the target.
60
Update Update
Rio Ngumoha of Liverpool earns a free kick in their own half.
60
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Rio Ngumoha from Liverpool takes a right-footed attempt from the left side of the penalty area, but Sam Johnstone of Wolverhampton Wanderers makes a save right in the middle of the goal, with an assist from Alexis Mac Allister.
60
Update Update
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde commits a foul for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
58
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Mateus Mané of Wolverhampton Wanderers took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it narrowly missed the top right corner after a set piece play.
58
Update Update
Alexis Mac Allister from Liverpool commits a foul.
58
Update Update
Yerson Mosquera of Wolverhampton Wanderers earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
57
Attempt Attempt
A shot on goal has been thwarted. Jean-Ricner Bellegarde from Wolverhampton Wanderers takes a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but the goalkeeper makes the save.
55
Update Update
João Gomes of Wolverhampton Wanderers earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
55
Update Update
VAR Review: Liverpool Goal - Mohamed Salah.
55
Update Update
Cody Gakpo from Liverpool commits a foul.
53
Update Update
Liverpool has been flagged for offside. Mohamed Salah has been caught in an offside position.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Liverpool takes the lead against Wolverhampton Wanderers, making it 1-0. Andy Robertson scores with a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, finding the bottom right corner of the net. The assist comes from Curtis Jones.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Liverpool after Hugo Bueno allowed the ball to go out.
46
Update Update
Mateus Mané commits a foul for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
46
Update Update
Ryan Gravenberch from Liverpool earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Liverpool, following a foul by João Gomes.
45
Update Update
The first half concludes with the score tied at 0-0 between Wolverhampton Wanderers and Liverpool.
45
Attempt Attempt
The shot is denied! Alexis Mac Allister of Liverpool tries a right-footed effort from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. Andy Robertson provided the assist.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Wolverhampton Wanderers 0, Liverpool 0.
41
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Ryan Gravenberch of Liverpool fires a right-footed attempt from outside the penalty area, but Sam Johnstone of Wolverhampton Wanderers makes a save right in the middle of the goal.
41
Attempt Attempt
The attempt was thwarted. Dominik Szoboszlai of Liverpool took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it was blocked. Mohamed Salah provided the assist.
40
Update Update
Alexis Mac Allister from Liverpool earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
40
Update Update
João Gomes from Wolverhampton Wanderers commits a foul.
39
Update Update
Mateus Mané of Wolverhampton Wanderers earns a free kick in his own half.
39
Update Update
Mateus Mané of Wolverhampton Wanderers is awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
34
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Joe Gomez from Liverpool took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left.
34
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt was thwarted. Rio Ngumoha from Liverpool took a right-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Andy Robertson.
32
Update Update
Ryan Gravenberch from Liverpool commits a foul.
32
Update Update
João Gomes of Wolverhampton Wanderers earns a free kick in his team's defensive area.
30
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Ryan Gravenberch from Liverpool takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
29
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Liverpool after João Gomes allowed the ball to go out.
27
Update Update
Tolu Arokodare commits a foul for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
27
Update Update
Cody Gakpo of Liverpool earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Liverpool after a play that was defended by Mateus Mané.
25
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Liverpool after Santiago Bueno allowed the ball to go out.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Liverpool after a deflection off Sam Johnstone.
22
Update Update
Offside call against Liverpool. Cody Gakpo has been flagged for being offside.
21
Update Update
Yerson Mosquera commits a foul for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
21
Update Update
Rio Ngumoha of Liverpool has been awarded a free kick in the opponent's half.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Liverpool after Tolu Arokodare allowed the ball to go out.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Liverpool after Tolu Arokodare allowed the ball to go out of play.
19
Update Update
Jackson Tchatchoua commits a foul for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
19
Update Update
Rio Ngumoha of Liverpool earns a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Liverpool after Jackson Tchatchoua allowed the ball to go out.
17
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Santiago Bueno of Wolverhampton Wanderers receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
17
Update Update
Santiago Bueno commits a foul against Wolverhampton Wanderers.
11
Attempt Attempt
Cody Gakpo from Liverpool tries a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The attempt was set up by Rio Ngumoha.
11
Corner Corner
Shot on goal denied. Rio Ngumoha of Liverpool took a left-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but Sam Johnstone from Wolverhampton Wanderers made a save, stopping the ball in the bottom left corner. The attempt was set up by Cody Gakpo.
9
Corner Corner
Shot on goal denied. Alexis Mac Allister of Liverpool takes a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but Sam Johnstone of Wolverhampton Wanderers makes a great save, stopping it in the top left corner.
9
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Alexis Mac Allister of Liverpool heads the ball from the left side of the six-yard box, but it goes over the bar and to the left. The chance was set up by a cross from Dominik Szoboszlai after a corner kick.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Liverpool after Yerson Mosquera allowed the ball to go out.
6
Update Update
Liverpool is flagged for offside as Cody Gakpo is found to be in an offside position.
5
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Liverpool after Yerson Mosquera allowed the ball to go out.
3
Update Update
Toti Gomes from Wolverhampton Wanderers earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
3
Update Update
Ryan Gravenberch commits a foul for Liverpool.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Liverpool exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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