Fulham vs Southampton Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 FA Cup, England
Craven Cottage Mon, 9 Mar - 12:03 AM
FA Cup
Fulham FUL
0 Winner 1
Southampton SOU
Full Time Mon, 9 Mar 12:03 AM
|
Goal
Ross Stewart - 90+1' (P)

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished with Southampton pulling off an upset, defeating Fulham 1-0. The sides went into the halftime break deadlocked at 0-0, but the visitors ultimately found the decisive breakthrough in the second half. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Southampton came into the game with only a 19.9% implied probability of victory, while a heavily favored Fulham held a commanding 58.4% chance. Consequently, the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market. Fulham dominated the flow of play, controlling 68% of the possession compared to Southampton's 32%. Expected goals (xG) data is unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be definitively evaluated if the final score was consistent with the underlying chance creation. However, despite the unexpected victor, the match's overall efficiency shift remained in line with expectations. Discipline was not a factor in the final result, as the game concluded without any red cards issued to either side. Ultimately, Southampton’s ability to snatch a narrow victory against a stronger opponent, completely defying a heavy possession disadvantage and the pre-match odds, stands as the defining narrative of the fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Southampton showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Gillett
J. Gillett
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
N. Davies
N. Davies
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
S. Meredith
S. Meredith
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
T. Robinson
T. Robinson
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Fulham M. Saraiva Da Silva
M. Saraiva Da Silva
VS
Southampton Tonda Eckert
Tonda Eckert
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Middlesbrough Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Doncaster Rovers Rank: W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 8 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fulham
58.35%
Draw
21.77%
Away Southampton
19.88%
Power Ranking data not available.

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fulham — Opponent-weighted form score
Southampton — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fulham Southampton

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fulham

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Southampton

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fulham ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Southampton
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.74
21.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.88
40.74
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fulham +1.55 Efficiency Index
vs
Southampton -1.55 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fulham
Southampton
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fulham
vs
Southampton
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fulham Southampton
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +1.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fulham Southampton
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Fulham
Southampton
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fulham FUL Home
1 matches
Southampton SOU Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
1.95
xG
1.50
1.50
xGA
1.95

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T13:22:37+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 09, 2026, 12:03 AM
Competition
2025/2026 FA Cup, England
Stadium
Craven Cottage
Capacity
25700
Attendance
21974
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jarred Gillett
Neil Davies
Steve Meredith
Tim Robinson

Statistics

Possession
FUL
64%
SOU
36%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 4
6 Shots 3
74 Dangerous attacks 40
68 Possession 32
15 Corners 4
14 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Penalties 1
17 Successful Headers 12
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
3 Goal Kicks 11
12 Dribble Attempts 9
20 Throwins 14
5 Successful Dribbles 6
0 Hit Woodwork 1
88 Ball Safe 73
3 Substitutions 4
13 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

106 Attacks 64
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

604 Passes 283
16 Key Passes 3
17 Successful Long Passes 17
89 Successful Passes Percentage 75
537 Successful Passes 212
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
38 Long Passes 45

Defensive

13 Tackles 17
12 Interceptions 5
2 Saves 6

Build-up

32 Total Crosses 13
8 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

8 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Samuel Chukwueze
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+8'
90+6'
Event
Kuryu Matsuki
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Finn Azaz
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Raúl Jiménez → Harrison Reed
7th Substitution
90+2'
90+1'
Event
Ross Stewart
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Josh King → Emile Smith Rowe
6th Substitution
89'
82'
Event
Samuel Edozie → Leo Scienza
4th Substitution
82'
Event
Kuryu Matsuki → Tom Fellows
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Flynn Downes
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
71'
Event
Cameron Bragg → Caspar Jander
2nd Substitution
71'
Event
Ross Stewart → Cyle Larin
3rd Substitution
Event
Alex Iwobi → Tom Cairney
1st Substitution
65'
Event
Jorge Cuenca
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
62'
Event
Var
55'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Samuel Chukwueze commits a foul for Fulham.
90
Update Update
Josh King from Fulham earns a free kick on the left flank.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kuryu Matsuki from Southampton receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded, with the final score being Fulham 0, Southampton 1.
90
Update Update
Joachim Andersen of Fulham has given away a penalty due to a foul committed in the box.
90
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Southampton! Finn Azaz is fouled inside the box.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Fulham 0, Southampton 1. Ross Stewart from Southampton scores the penalty with a right-footed strike into the bottom left corner.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Southampton. Finn Azaz has been flagged for being in an offside position.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fulham: Raúl Jiménez comes on to take the place of Harrison Reed.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Finn Azaz from Southampton receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki from Southampton has committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Alex Iwobi from Fulham earns a free kick in the offensive half of the field.
90
Update Update
James Bree commits a foul for Southampton.
90
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Jorge Cuenca of Fulham takes a right-footed attempt from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The chance was set up by Rodrigo Muniz, who provided a header.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded, with the final score being Fulham 0, Southampton 1.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Samuel Chukwueze from Fulham receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
90
Update Update
Ryan Manning from Southampton is awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fulham: Josh King comes on to take the place of Emile Smith Rowe.
87
Update Update
The pause has ended, and they're set to resume play.
86
Update Update
The game has been paused due to an injury to Daniel Peretz from Southampton.
86
Corner Corner
Fulham has been awarded a corner kick after Daniel Peretz allowed the ball to go out of play.
86
Corner Corner
The shot was blocked. Ryan Sessegnon of Fulham took a left-footed strike from a challenging position on the left, but Daniel Peretz from Southampton made a save in the bottom left corner. The opportunity was set up by Emile Smith Rowe.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Samuel Edozie comes on to take the place of Léo Scienza.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Kuryu Matsuki comes on to take the place of Tom Fellows.
80
Update Update
Offside call against Southampton. Ross Stewart has been flagged for being in an offside position.
79
Corner Corner
Fulham has earned a corner kick after Ryan Manning allowed the ball to go out of play.
79
Update Update
Joachim Andersen from Fulham commits a foul.
79
Update Update
Finn Azaz from Southampton earns a free kick in his team's defensive area.
78
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Fulham after Taylor Harwood-Bellis allowed the ball to go out.
78
Attempt Attempt
Shot attempt denied. Ryan Sessegnon from Fulham takes a left-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
78
Attempt Attempt
Blocked attempt. Alex Iwobi from Fulham takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it’s deflected away. The assist came from Joachim Andersen, who set him up with a header.
76
Corner Corner
Fulham has been awarded a corner kick after Tom Fellows allowed the ball to go out of play.
75
Corner Corner
Fulham has been awarded a corner kick after Ryan Manning allowed the ball to go out of play.
73
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Flynn Downes from Southampton receives a yellow card.
73
Update Update
Flynn Downes commits a foul for Southampton.
73
Update Update
Harrison Reed from Fulham earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
71
Update Update
Offside call against Southampton. Tom Fellows has been flagged for being in an offside position.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Ross Stewart comes on to take the place of Cyle Larin.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Cameron Bragg comes on to take the place of Caspar Jander.
70
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Southampton after a deflection off Benjamin Lecomte.
70
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Southampton, following a save by Benjamin Lecomte.
66
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Rodrigo Muniz from Fulham took a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it went wide.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fulham: Alex Iwobi comes on to take the place of Tom Cairney.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jorge Cuenca from Fulham receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
62
Update Update
James Bree from Southampton earns a free kick in his own half.
62
Update Update
The game has been temporarily halted due to an injury to James Bree from Southampton.
61
Update Update
Jorge Cuenca commits a foul for Fulham.
60
Attempt Attempt
Shot attempt denied. Oscar Bobb from Fulham took a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it was blocked. The assist came from Joachim Andersen.
59
Update Update
Nathan Wood of Southampton commits a foul.
59
Update Update
Rodrigo Muniz from Fulham earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
58
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Southampton, following a save by Benjamin Lecomte.
58
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Tom Fellows of Southampton takes a left-footed attempt from the left side of the penalty area, but Benjamin Lecomte of Fulham makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The chance was set up by Cyle Larin, who provided a well-placed through ball.
56
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Harrison Reed from Fulham takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes over the bar and to the left.
54
Update Update
Offside call against Fulham. Timothy Castagne has been flagged for being in an offside position.
53
Update Update
Cyle Larin commits a foul for Southampton.
53
Update Update
Tom Cairney from Fulham earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
52
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
52
Update Update
Match is currently on hold - Fulham.
51
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Tom Cairney from Fulham took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
49
Attempt Attempt
The attempt was thwarted. Harrison Reed from Fulham took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it was successfully stopped.
47
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Rodrigo Muniz from Fulham directed a header from the middle of the penalty area, but it went wide.
46
Update Update
Ryan Manning from Southampton commits a foul.
46
Update Update
Oscar Bobb from Fulham is awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
45
Update Update
Offside call against Southampton. Cyle Larin has been flagged for being in an offside position.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Fulham after Taylor Harwood-Bellis allowed the ball to go out.
45
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. Rodrigo Muniz from Fulham tries a right-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The opportunity was set up by a cross from Harrison Reed.
45
Update Update
Offside call against Southampton. Cyle Larin has been flagged for being offside.
45
Update Update
The first half concludes with the score tied at Fulham 0, Southampton 0.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Fulham 0, Southampton 0.
43
Corner Corner
Fulham has earned a corner after James Bree allowed the ball to go out of play.
41
Update Update
Oscar Bobb commits a foul for Fulham.
41
Update Update
Léo Scienza from Southampton earns a free kick on the left flank.
39
Corner Corner
Fulham has been awarded a corner kick after Ryan Manning allowed the ball to go out of play.
37
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Southampton, following a foul by Harrison Reed.
36
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Southampton after a deflection off Samuel Chukwueze.
35
Update Update
Fulham has been flagged for offside. Oscar Bobb has been caught in an offside position.
34
Update Update
Rodrigo Muniz from Fulham earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
34
Update Update
Nathan Wood from Southampton commits a foul.
33
Attempt Attempt
Léo Scienza from Southampton has just fired a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it goes wide of the target.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Fulham after Léo Scienza allowed the ball to go out.
31
Update Update
Offside call against Southampton. Cyle Larin has been flagged for being in an offside position.
30
Update Update
Ryan Sessegnon commits a foul for Fulham.
30
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Rodrigo Muniz from Fulham took a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
30
Update Update
Tom Fellows from Southampton is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
30
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Samuel Chukwueze of Fulham takes a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but Daniel Peretz of Southampton makes a save right in the middle of the goal.
29
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Rodrigo Muniz from Fulham tries a header from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The cross was delivered by Harrison Reed.
28
Corner Corner
Fulham has been awarded a corner kick after Ryan Manning allowed the ball to go out.
28
Corner Corner
Fulham has been awarded a corner kick after Daniel Peretz allowed the ball to go out of play.
28
Corner Corner
A shot on goal has been denied. Joachim Andersen of Fulham directed a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but it was stopped in the top right corner. The assist came from Harrison Reed, who delivered a cross.
26
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Fulham after James Bree allowed the ball to go out.
25
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Fulham after James Bree allowed the ball to go out.
23
Update Update
Flynn Downes commits a foul for Southampton.
23
Update Update
Harrison Reed from Fulham earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
22
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Ryan Sessegnon from Fulham took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area after a corner kick.
22
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Léo Scienza from Southampton took a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it goes just to the right of the goal. He was set up by Finn Azaz after a quick counterattack.
21
Corner Corner
Fulham has been awarded a corner after James Bree allowed the ball to go out of play.
19
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Rodrigo Muniz from Fulham directed a header from the center of the penalty area after a set piece.
18
Update Update
Oscar Bobb from Fulham earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
18
Update Update
Cyle Larin from Southampton commits a foul.
15
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Tom Cairney from Fulham takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes over the goal and to the right.
15
Attempt Attempt
The shot is deflected. Oscar Bobb from Fulham takes a left-footed attempt from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
15
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt was thwarted. Ryan Sessegnon of Fulham took a right-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Samuel Chukwueze.
14
Update Update
Jorge Cuenca commits a foul for Fulham.
14
Update Update
Finn Azaz from Southampton is awarded a free kick in his own half.
13
Update Update
Cyle Larin from Southampton earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
13
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Oscar Bobb from Fulham takes a left-footed attempt from the right side of the penalty area, but the goalkeeper makes the save.
13
Update Update
Joachim Andersen commits a foul for Fulham.
10
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Southampton after Jorge Cuenca allowed the ball to go out of play.
9
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Fulham after a play that resulted in a deflection off James Bree.
8
Update Update
The attempt was thwarted. Joachim Andersen from Fulham directed a header from the middle of the penalty area, but it was successfully stopped.
7
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Fulham after a deflection off Caspar Jander.
2
Update Update
Tom Cairney from Fulham earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
2
Update Update
Cyle Larin commits a foul for Southampton.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Southampton exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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