Kasımpaşa vs Kocaelispor Match Preview, Stats & Prediction

2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu Sun, 3 May - 5:00 PM

Super Lig

Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa

1 – 1

Kocaelispor Kocaelispor

Full Time Sun, 3 May 5:00 PM

Round 32 Regular Season

Adrian Benedyczak - 2'

Dan Agyei - 23'

CONTEXT

Kasimpasa and Kocaelispor played out a 1-1 draw in their Turkish Super Lig encounter, with the scoreline mirroring the halftime result of 1-1. Kasimpasa, deemed the stronger team, controlled possession at 61% compared to Kocaelispor's 39%, yet failed to capitalize on their territorial advantage. The home side pressed forward but lacked clinical finishing, allowing the visitors to hold firm defensively. No red cards disrupted the flow, and the second half saw no tactical adjustments noted. This outcome represents a significant structural deviation for Kasimpasa, who underperformed relative to pre-match assessments where they held a clear edge. Kocaelispor's resilience earned them a valuable point away from home, highlighting their counter-attacking threat. Both teams displayed solid organization, but neither could find a winner in a match characterized by even scoring chances despite the possession disparity. The draw leaves Kasimpasa with mixed feelings after dominating without decisive impact.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Kasimpasa showed a significant 71.3% structural deviation from expectations.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing xG data.
Market alignment: Final draw outcome did not align with pre-match market probabilities.
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without xG data.
Event impact: No notable events or second-half adjustments impacted the match.
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards caused no distortion in match dynamics.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

Y. Kol

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Mazlum

1st Assistant

Y. Susuz

2nd Assistant

A. Şen

4th Official

E. Belözoğlu

S. İnan

1.05

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.25

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 1 - 0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Kasımpaşa

46.2%

Draw

28.66%

Kocaelispor

25.14%

Movement

Changes since opening

Kasımpaşa

+38.96%

Draw

-61.81%

Kocaelispor

+22.85%

Team Power Ranking

65.64

57.07

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Kasımpaşa

Kocaelispor

Power Score

65.64

57.07

League Position

Global Rank

311

334

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Kasımpaşa — Opponent-weighted form score

Kocaelispor — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kasımpaşa Kocaelispor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Kasımpaşa

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Kocaelispor

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kasımpaşa ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Kocaelispor

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Kasımpaşa Kocaelispor

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Kasımpaşa Kocaelispor

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Kasımpaşa

Kocaelispor

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Kasımpaşa

Kocaelispor

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Kasımpaşa Kocaelispor

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Transition Efficiency Index Higher = stronger on the counter

Kasımpaşa 0.00

Kocaelispor 0.00

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Kasımpaşa Kocaelispor

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Kasımpaşa

Kocaelispor

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Kocaelispor had peak pressure around 17'.
Kocaelispor started the game with stronger pressure.

Kasımpaşa Pressure Kocaelispor Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Kocaelispor reached the top pressure at 17' (72.06).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa Home

1 matches

Kocaelispor Kocaelispor Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T16:30:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 4-3-3

1 A. Gianniotis

2 C. Winck Neto

12 M. Ben Ouannes

4 A. Arous

20 N. Opoku

8 C. Ribeiro Dias

22 K. Çörekçi

71 İ. Kahveci

26 K. Demirbay

34 F. Diabaté

19 A. Benedyczak

83 S. Öztaşdelen

21 M. Haïdara

19 S. Dursun

2 A. Dijksteel

22 A. Oğuz

8 H. Keita

14 M. Da Silva Cafumana

20 M. Susoho

98 J. Nonge Boende

7 D. Agyei

70 C. Keles

General Information

Date & Time :

May 03, 2026, 05:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 32 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Capacity :

14234

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Mehmet Salih Mazlum

Yasin Kol

Yusuf Susuz

Alpaslan Şen

Statistics

Possession

Kasımpaşa

59%

Kocaelispor

41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1

2 Big Chances Created 2

4 Shots 1

41 Dangerous attacks 24

61 Possession 39

6 Corners 5

17 Free kicks 14

0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

14 Successful Dribbles Percentage 31

4 Successful Headers 7

17 Throwins 13

1 Assists 1

1 Successful Dribbles 4

8 Goal Kicks 10

7 Dribble Attempts 13

1 Substitutions 3

Attacking

91 Attacks 48

1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 79

428 Passes 270

6 Key Passes 3

361 Successful Passes 213

59 Long Passes 49

51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

30 Successful Long Passes 18

Defensive

35 Duels Won 34

13 Tackles 9

5 Interceptions 9

0 Saves 3

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 17

3 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

14 Fouls 17

0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Yasin Kol

Manager ▼

E. Belözoğlu Coach

Starting XI ▼

Andreas Gianniotis Goalkeeper

6.74

Cláudio Winck Defender

6.76

Godfried Frimpong

Defender90'

6.51

Adem Arous Defender

6.81

Mortadha Ben Ouanes Defender

6.87

Nicholas Opoku Defender

6.73

Cafú Midfielder

6.65

Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi Midfielder

6.78

Kerem Demirbay Midfielder

7.04

Fousseni Diabaté Midfielder

6.68

İrfan Can Kahveci Midfielder

7.16

Adrian Benedyczak Attacker

7.02

Substitutes ▼

Godfried Frimpong

Defender90'

6.51

Bench ▼

Ali Emre Yanar Goalkeeper

6.25

Taylan Aydın Defender

6.4

E. Taşdemir Defender

6.36

Eyüp Aydın Midfielder

6.67

Burak Gültekin Midfielder

Ali Yavuz Kol Attacker

6.59

Kubilay Kanatsızkuş Attacker

6.64

Cenk Tosun Attacker

6.66

Pape Habib Guèye Attacker

6.69

Referee : Yasin Kol