Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Fortuna Sittard Stadion Sun, 3 May - 12:30 PM
Eredivisie
Fortuna Sittard FOR
1 Winner 2
Feyenoord FEY
Full Time Sun, 3 May 12:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Kaj Sierhuis - 51'
Goal
|
Goal
Givairo Read  - 90'
Tsuyoshi Watanabe  - 84'
Paul Gladon 80' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Fortuna Sittard hosted Feyenoord in an Eredivisie encounter that concluded 1-2 in favor of the visitors. The first half finished goalless at 0-0, with possession nearly even at 47% for the home side and 53% for Feyenoord. The second half saw a pivotal shift when Fortuna Sittard received a red card, reducing them to ten men. Despite this, they scored once, but Feyenoord capitalized with two goals to secure victory. As the stronger team, Feyenoord's win aligned with expectations, though the result featured a significant 42.1% structural deviation in their favor. Efficiency metrics remained in line with norms, but xG data was unavailable for further insight. The red card introduced clear distortion, particularly post-halftime.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed a significant 42.1% structural deviation favoring Feyenoord.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated with null data available.
  • Event impact: Home red card event reshaped second-half dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Fortuna Sittard's red card distorted second-half match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Kooij

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

H. Kucukerbir

2nd Assistant

D. Fikkert

1st Assistant

S. Teuben

4th Official

Fortuna Sittard D. Buijs
D. Buijs
VS
Feyenoord R. van Persie
R. van Persie
1.15
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Heerenveen Rank: 69 L
NAC Breda Rank: 54 D
AZ Rank: 76 L
FC Twente Rank: 76 L
FC Volendam Rank: 60 W
Telstar Rank: 62 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Groningen Rank: 67 W
NEC Nijmegen Rank: 75 D
FC Volendam Rank: 60 D
Ajax Rank: 77 D
Excelsior Rank: 62 W
NAC Breda Rank: 54 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fortuna Sittard
20.79%
Draw
21.27%
Away Feyenoord
57.93%

Movement

Changes since opening
Fortuna Sittard
+20.6%
Draw
+17.54%
Feyenoord
-38.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.1
75.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fortuna Sittard
Feyenoord
Power Score
61.1
75.96
League Position
13
2
Global Rank
450
99

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fortuna Sittard — Opponent-weighted form score
Feyenoord — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fortuna Sittard Feyenoord

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fortuna Sittard

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Feyenoord

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fortuna Sittard ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Feyenoord
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.55
42.45
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.45
17.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fortuna Sittard -2.62 Efficiency Index
vs
Feyenoord +2.62 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fortuna Sittard
Feyenoord
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fortuna Sittard ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Feyenoord
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fortuna Sittard Feyenoord
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fortuna Sittard Feyenoord
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fortuna Sittard
Feyenoord
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fortuna Sittard
vs
Feyenoord
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fortuna Sittard Feyenoord
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fortuna Sittard 0.28
Feyenoord 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fortuna Sittard Feyenoord
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fortuna Sittard 0.03
Feyenoord 0.04
Fortuna Sittard
Feyenoord
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FEY had peak pressure around 96'.
  • FEY started the game with stronger pressure.
FOR Pressure FEY Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FEY reached the top pressure at 96' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fortuna Sittard FOR Home
15 matches
Feyenoord FEY Away
Match Record
2
Wins
10
3
Draws
3
10
Losses
2
Goals
14
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
14
-18
Goal Difference
+18

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:03:02+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Branderhorst
Netherlands
31 M. Branderhorst
N. Kasanwirjo
Netherlands
21 N. Kasanwirjo
I. Márquez Álvarez
Substitution
Spain
44 I. Márquez Álvarez
J. Hubner
Netherlands
28 J. Hubner
J. Dahlhaus
Netherlands
8 J. Dahlhaus
S. van Ottele
Netherlands
6 S. van Ottele
P. Brittijn
Netherlands
23 P. Brittijn
M. Ihattaren
Substitution
Netherlands
52 M. Ihattaren
L. Duijvestijn
Netherlands
70 L. Duijvestijn
D. Limnios
Substitution
Greece
18 D. Limnios
K. Sierhuis
Substitution
Netherlands
9 K. Sierhuis
Pitch
T. Wellenreuther
Germany
22 T. Wellenreuther
J. Bos
Australia
15 J. Bos
T. Watanabe
Japan
4 T. Watanabe
G. Trauner
Substitution
Austria
18 G. Trauner
M. Deijl
Substitution
Netherlands
20 M. Deijl
O. Targhalline
Morocco
28 O. Targhalline
T. Kraaijeveld
Substitution
Netherlands
24 T. Kraaijeveld
T. van den Elshout
Substitution
44 T. van den Elshout
L. Valente
Substitution
Italy
10 L. Valente
A. Hadj Moussa
Algeria
23 A. Hadj Moussa
A. Ueda
Japan
9 A. Ueda

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Fortuna Sittard Stadion
Capacity :
12500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Halis Murat Kucukerbir
Joey Kooij
Dyon Fikkert
Stan Teuben

Statistics

Possession
FOR
47%
FEY
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 4
2 Shots 7
25 Dangerous attacks 70
47 Possession 53
1 Corners 8
13 Free kicks 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

82 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
19 Throwins 19
23 Successful Headers 19
9 Successful Dribbles 8
11 Dribble Attempts 18
11 Goal Kicks 3
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 5
3 Goal Attempts 9
1 Injuries 2
103 Ball Safe 81

Attacking

93 Attacks 105
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

19 Successful Long Passes 16
28 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
71 Successful Passes Percentage 80
249 Successful Passes 311
68 Long Passes 37
353 Passes 387
6 Key Passes 13

Defensive

18 Tackles 13
60 Duels Won 55
7 Interceptions 7
4 Saves 2

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 28
4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

16 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Joey Kooij

Starting XI ▼

31
Mattijs Branderhorst
Mattijs Branderhorst Goalkeeper
7.05
8
Jasper Dahlhaus
Jasper Dahlhaus Defender
6.61
21
Neraysho Kasanwirjo
Neraysho Kasanwirjo Defender
6.7
28
Justin Hubner
Justin Hubner Defender
6.75
44
Iván Márquez
Iván Márquez Defender
6.74
45
Owen Johnson
Owen Johnson
Attacker90'
6.36
6
Syb van Ottele
Syb van Ottele Midfielder
6.6
18
Dimitrios Limnios
Dimitrios Limnios Midfielder
6.85
7
Kristoffer Peterson
Kristoffer Peterson
Attacker70'
6.69
23
Philip Brittijn
Philip Brittijn Midfielder
6.82
52
Mohamed Ihattaren
Mohamed Ihattaren Midfielder
7.26
19
Paul Gladon
Paul Gladon
Attacker71'
6.68
70
Lance Duijvestijn
Lance Duijvestijn Midfielder
7.03
9
Kaj Sierhuis
Kaj Sierhuis Attacker
7.04
5
Yassin Oukili
Yassin Oukili
Midfielder77'
6.6
Referee : Joey Kooij

Starting XI ▼

22
Timon Wellenreuther
Timon Wellenreuther Goalkeeper
6.92
4
Tsuyoshi Watanabe
Tsuyoshi Watanabe Defender
7.05
15
Jordan Bos
Jordan Bos Defender
7.17
18
Gernot Trauner
Gernot Trauner Defender
6.7
8
Jeremiah St. Juste
Jeremiah St. Juste
Defender67'
6.44
20
Mats Deijl
Mats Deijl Defender
6.93
17
Casper Tengstedt
Casper Tengstedt
Attacker82'
6.74
10
Luciano Valente
Luciano Valente Midfielder
6.96
30
Jordan Lotomba
Jordan Lotomba
Defender90+4'
6.54
23
Anis Hadj Moussa
Anis Hadj Moussa Midfielder
7.26
24
Thijs Kraaijeveld
Thijs Kraaijeveld Midfielder
6.69
26
Givairo Read
Givairo Read
Defender67'
6.77
28
Oussama Targhalline
Oussama Targhalline Midfielder
7.01
44
Tobias van den Elshout
Tobias van den Elshout Midfielder
6.59
27
Gaoussou Diarra
Gaoussou Diarra
Attacker67'
6.81
9
Ayase Ueda
Ayase Ueda Attacker
7.41

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Ayase Ueda
5th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Jordan Lotomba → Luciano Valente
9th Substitution
Event
Owen Johnson → Iván Márquez
8th Substitution
90'
90'
Event
Givairo Read 
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
84'
Event
Tsuyoshi Watanabe 
Header / 2nd Goal
82'
Event
Casper Tengstedt → Mats Deijl
7th Substitution
Event
Paul Gladon
Foul / 1st Redcard
80'
Event
Paul Gladon
Card adjusted
79'
Event
Danny Buijs
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Yassin Oukili → Kaj Sierhuis
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Jasper Dahlhaus
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
72'
Event
Paul Gladon → Mohamed Ihattaren
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Kristoffer Peterson → Dimitrios Limnios
4th Substitution
70'
67'
Event
Jeremiah St. Juste  → Gernot Trauner 
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Givairo Read  → Thijs Kraaijeveld
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Gaoussou Diarra → Tobias van den Elshout
1st Substitution
66'
Event
Luciano Valente
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Kaj Sierhuis
Header / 1st Goal
51'
49'
Event
Anis Hadj Moussa
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Philip Brittijn
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+1'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Owen Johnson replaces Ivan Marquez Alvarez.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ayase Ueda receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Givairo Read scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Luciano Valente takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Jordan Lotomba replaces Luciano Valente.
88
Attempt Attempt
Casper Tengstedt has a shot with his right foot, but it's blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Gaoussou Diarra's header is saved.
84
Attempt Attempt
Ayase Ueda's header is saved.
84
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Tsuyoshi Watanabe results in a header goal.
82
Update Update
Casper Tengstedt is on, and Mats Deijl is off.
80
Red Card Red Card Important
Paul Gladon receives a red card.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Paul Gladon receives a yellow card.
77
Update Update
Yassin Oukili comes on for Kaj Sierhuis.
76
Attempt Attempt
Ayase Ueda takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jasper Dahlhaus receives a yellow card.
71
Update Update
Paul Gladon replaces Mohammed Amine Ihattaren.
70
Update Update
Kristoffer Peterson comes on for Dimitrios Limnios.
67
Update Update
Givairo Read comes on for Thijs Kraaijeveld.
67
Update Update
Gaoussou Diarra replaces Tobias van den Elshout.
67
Update Update
Jeremiah St. Juste replaces Gernot Trauner.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luciano Valente receives a yellow card.
58
Update Update
Ayase Ueda's header is blocked.
56
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Mohammed Amine Ihattaren with his left foot is saved.
51
Update Update
Kaj Sierhuis scores with a header.
51
Update Update
Goal! Kaj Sierhuis scores to make it 1-0.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Anis Hadj Moussa.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Philip Brittijn receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Mohammed Amine Ihattaren with his left foot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Justin Hubner takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
39
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Marquez Alvarez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Mats Deijl's right-footed shot is saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Luciano Valente takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Luciano Valente takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Oussama Targhalline takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Luciano Valente takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Oussama Targhalline takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Lance Duijvestijn takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Ayase Ueda takes a left-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Anis Hadj Moussa takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
7
Attempt Attempt
Anis Hadj Moussa takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
7
Attempt Attempt
Thijs Kraaijeveld takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Thijs Kraaijeveld takes a right-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Mohammed Amine Ihattaren with his left foot is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Feyenoord's 2-1 victory over Fortuna Sittard underscores their superior quality, especially after the home team's red card tilted the balance. The goalless first half gave way to a decisive second period where numerical advantage proved key, despite Fortuna's resilience in scoring. Structural deviation reached significant levels at 42.1% for Feyenoord, yet efficiencies held steady. Market alignment confirms the result matched anticipated hierarchies, with the red card as the primary distorting factor. Absent xG data limits performance depth analysis, but the outcome reinforces Feyenoord's stronger standing.

Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Eredivisie, Netherlands View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ