Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Polissya Zhytomyr Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Tsentralnyi Stadion Sun, 3 May - 12:30 PM
Premier League
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0 Winner 1
Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr
Full Time Sun, 3 May 12:30 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
|
Goal
Maksym Bragaru - 20'

CONTEXT

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv faced Polissya Zhytomyr at home in the Ukrainian Premier League, ending in a narrow 0-1 defeat despite holding 60% possession. Polissya, pre-identified as the stronger team, scored the decisive goal in the first half to lead 1-0 at halftime and maintained defensive solidity thereafter. Metalist dominated territory but lacked cutting edge in attack, failing to register a goal. The match displayed a significant 62.6% structural deviation favoring Polissya, with efficiency metrics remaining in line with expectations for both sides. Market assessments aligned with the outcome, as Polissya's pre-match edge at 37.4% translated into victory. No red cards or major events disrupted proceedings, allowing the game to follow its structural path without distortions. This result underscores Polissya's pragmatic approach prevailing over Metalist's possession-based play.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match showed a significant 62.6% structural deviation favoring Polissya Zhytomyr.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency for both teams stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market evaluations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable without available data.
  • Event impact: No significant events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Kovalenko

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Vysotsky

1st Assistant

O. Kogut

4th Official

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv M. Bartulović
M. Bartulović
VS
Polissya Zhytomyr R. Rotan
R. Rotan
1.93
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 D
Kudrivka Rank: 41 W
Veres Rank: 47 W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 W
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 55 D
SK Poltava Rank: 34 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 41 W
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 74 L
SK Poltava Rank: 33 W
Veres Rank: 48 D
Kudrivka Rank: 41 W
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 56 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 2 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
31.02%
Draw
31.54%
Away Polissya Zhytomyr
37.44%

Movement

Changes since opening
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
+30.38%
Draw
+27.82%
Polissya Zhytomyr
-58.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
48.77
62.37
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Polissya Zhytomyr
Power Score
48.77
62.37
League Position
5
3
Global Rank
730
415

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Opponent-weighted form score
Polissya Zhytomyr — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Polissya Zhytomyr

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Polissya Zhytomyr

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Polissya Zhytomyr
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
10.42
27.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.88
10.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv -1.77 Efficiency Index
vs
Polissya Zhytomyr +1.77 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Polissya Zhytomyr
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Polissya Zhytomyr
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Polissya Zhytomyr
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Polissya Zhytomyr
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Polissya Zhytomyr
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
vs
Polissya Zhytomyr
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Polissya Zhytomyr
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.05
Polissya Zhytomyr 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Polissya Zhytomyr
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.02
Polissya Zhytomyr 0.00
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Polissya Zhytomyr
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Metalist 1925 Kharkiv had peak pressure around 41'.
  • Polissya Zhytomyr started the game with stronger pressure.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Pressure Polissya Zhytomyr Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv reached the top pressure at 41' (63.62).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Home
3 matches
Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
4
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:03:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
D. Varakuta
Ukraine
30 D. Varakuta
I. Krupskyi
Ukraine
27 I. Krupskyi
Y. Pavliuk
Ukraine
18 Y. Pavliuk
A. Shabanov
Ukraine
31 A. Shabanov
O. Martynyuk
Substitution
Ukraine
24 O. Martynyuk
I. Kaliuzhnyi
Ukraine
5 I. Kaliuzhnyi
D. Antyukh
Substitution
Ukraine
15 D. Antyukh
V. Kalitvintsev
Substitution
Ukraine
45 V. Kalitvintsev
J. Árevalo Chaparro
Substitution
Colombia
16 J. Árevalo Chaparro
E. Rashica
Substitution
Albania
19 E. Rashica
P. Itodo
Nigeria
98 P. Itodo
Pitch
E. Volynets
Ukraine
23 E. Volynets
B. Mykhaylichenko
Ukraine
15 B. Mykhaylichenko
E. Sarapiy
Ukraine
5 E. Sarapiy
S. Chobotenko
Ukraine
44 S. Chobotenko
G. Maisuradze
Substitution
Georgia
31 G. Maisuradze
R. Babenko
Ukraine
8 R. Babenko
M. Bragaru
Substitution
Ukraine
45 M. Bragaru
L. Emërllahu
Substitution
Kosovo
14 L. Emërllahu
O. Andrievsky
Substitution
Ukraine
18 O. Andrievsky
O. Hutsuliak
Ukraine
11 O. Hutsuliak
I. Krasnopir
Substitution
Ukraine
95 I. Krasnopir

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Tsentralnyi Stadion
Capacity :
5928
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Andriy Kovalenko
Volodymyr Vysotsky
Oleg Kogut

Statistics

Possession
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
57%
Polissya Zhytomyr
43%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
3 Shots 6
65 Dangerous attacks 43
60 Possession 40
7 Corners 4
14 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

121 Attacks 88

Defensive

2 Saves 0

Lineup

Referee : Andriy Kovalenko

Starting XI ▼

30
Danylo Varakuta
Danylo Varakuta Goalkeeper
6.45
18
Yevgen Pavlyuk
Yevgen Pavlyuk Defender
6.63
24
Oleksandr Martynyuk
Oleksandr Martynyuk Defender
6.44
13
Volodymyr Salyuk
Volodymyr Salyuk
Defender78'
6.61
27
Ilya Krupskyi
Ilya Krupskyi Defender
6.58
31
Artem Shabanov
Artem Shabanov Defender
6.5
5
Ivan Kalyuzhnyi
Ivan Kalyuzhnyi Midfielder
6.67
15
Denys Antyukh
Denys Antyukh Midfielder
6.7
7
Ari Moura
Ari Moura
Midfielder66'
6.75
16
Nicolás Arévalo
Nicolás Arévalo Midfielder
6.73
26
Baton Zabergja
Baton Zabergja
Midfielder78'
6.59
19
Ermir Rashica
Ermir Rashica Midfielder
6.47
99
Christian Mba
Christian Mba
Attacker78'
6.55
45
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev Midfielder
6.62
8
Sebastian Castillo
Sebastian Castillo
Attacker66'
6.65
98
Peter Mandela Itodo
Peter Mandela Itodo Attacker
6.76
Referee : Andriy Kovalenko

Starting XI ▼

23
Yevgen Volynets
Yevgen Volynets Goalkeeper
6.55
5
Eduard Sarapiy
Eduard Sarapiy Defender
6.75
15
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko Defender
6.57
31
Giorgi Maisuradze
Giorgi Maisuradze Defender
6.72
35
Kiril Kobernyuk
Kiril Kobernyuk
Defender88'
6.23
44
Sergiy Chobotenko
Sergiy Chobotenko Defender
6.55
8
Ruslan Babenko
Ruslan Babenko Midfielder
6.59
11
Oleksiy Gutsulyak
Oleksiy Gutsulyak Midfielder
7.05
14
Lindon Emërllahu
Lindon Emërllahu Midfielder
6.63
27
Oleg Fedor
Oleg Fedor
Midfielder61'
6.42
18
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi Midfielder
6.69
19
Volodymyr Shepelev
Volodymyr Shepelev
Midfielder79'
6.47
45
Maksym Bragaru
Maksym Bragaru Midfielder
6.66
7
Oleksandr Nazarenko
Oleksandr Nazarenko
Midfielder61'
6.59
95
Igor Krasnopir
Igor Krasnopir Attacker
6.57
89
Mykola Gayduchyk
Mykola Gayduchyk
Attacker61'
6.76

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Volodymyr Shepelev
1st Yellowcard
88'
Event
Kiril Kobernyuk → Giorgi Maisuradze
10th Substitution
79'
Event
Volodymyr Shepelev → Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
9th Substitution
Event
Volodymyr Salyuk → Oleksandr Martynyuk
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Christian Mba → Ermir Rashica
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Baton Zabergja → Nicolás Arévalo
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Sebastian Castillo → Vladyslav Kalitvintsev
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Ari Moura → Denys Antyukh
5th Substitution
66'
61'
Event
Oleksandr Nazarenko → Maksym Bragaru
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Oleg Fedor → Lindon Emërllahu
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Mykola Gayduchyk → Igor Krasnopir
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
20'
Event
Maksym Bragaru
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Volodymyr Shepelev receives a yellow card.
88
Update Update
Kiril Koberniuk comes on for Giorgi Maisuradze.
79
Update Update
Volodymyr Shepelev comes on for Oleksandr Andrievsky.
78
Update Update
Christian Mba replaces Ermir Rashica.
78
Update Update
Volodymyr Salyuk replaces Oleksandr Martynyuk.
78
Update Update
Baton Zabergja is on, and Nicolas Arevalo is off.
66
Update Update
Sebastian Alejandro Castillo Perez comes on for Vladyslav Kalitvintsev.
66
Update Update
Ari Moura Vieira Filho is on, and Denys Antyukh is off.
61
Update Update
Mykola Gayduchyk comes on for Igor Krasnopir.
61
Update Update
Oleh Andriiovych Fedor comes on for Lindon Emerllahu.
61
Update Update
Oleksandr Nazarenko replaces Maksim Bragaru.

CONCLUSION

Polissya Zhytomyr's 1-0 victory over Metalist 1925 Kharkiv validates their pre-designated stronger status, achieved through first-half efficiency despite 40% possession. Metalist's 60% control yielded no goals, exposing conversion issues. The significant 62.6% structural deviation amplified Polissya's edge, while market alignment confirmed the result's consistency. With efficiency in line and no red cards or events distorting play, the match reflected expected patterns. Metalist must refine finishing, whereas Polissya's resilience bolsters their campaign. This outcome highlights tactical discipline trumping possession in compact fixtures.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Polissya Zhytomyr preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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