Lillestrøm vs Sarpsborg 08 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Åråsen Stadion Sun, 3 May - 12:30 PM
Eliteserien
Lillestrøm Lillestrøm
4 Winner 0
Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08
Full Time Sun, 3 May 12:30 PM
Round 7 Regular Season
Salieu Drammeh - 90' (P)
Camil Jebara - 76'
Gustav Nyheim - 11'
Markus Karlsbakk - 4' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Lillestrøm secured a convincing 4-0 home victory over Sarpsborg 08, leading 2-0 at halftime and adding two more goals after the break. Despite holding 49% possession to the visitors' 51%, Lillestrøm demonstrated superior clinical finishing and defensive organization. Sarpsborg 08, labeled the stronger team pre-match, struggled to convert their slight territorial advantage into threats, resulting in a clean sheet for the hosts. No red cards were shown, and the game flowed without significant interruptions or second-half tactical shifts. This outcome featured minimal structural deviation of 5.7% favoring Lillestrøm, efficiency in line with norms, and full alignment with pre-match market indicators, underscoring the hosts' effective execution.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Minimal structural deviation of 5.7% for Lillestrøm.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed as true.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No event impacts from second half adjustments.
  • Red card distortion: No red card distortion with zero red cards issued.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Aslam

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Rossland

1st Assistant

D. Nebben

2nd Assistant

J. Grundt

4th Official

Lillestrøm H. Ødegaard
H. Ødegaard
VS
Sarpsborg 08 E. Sel
E. Sel
2.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.22
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 81 L
Vålerenga Rank: 61 W
Tromsø Rank: 68 D
Start Rank: 50 W
Molde Rank: 65 W
Aalesund Rank: 42 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
KFUM Rank: 55 L
Tromsø Rank: 68 L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 82 D
Rosenborg Rank: 60 L
Start Rank: 49 D
Sandefjord Rank: 62 W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 6 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lillestrøm
94.29%
Draw
4.53%
Away Sarpsborg 08
1.18%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
49.55
58.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lillestrøm
Sarpsborg 08
Power Score
49.55
58.4
League Position
3
13
Global Rank
571
538

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lillestrøm — Opponent-weighted form score
Sarpsborg 08 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lillestrøm Sarpsborg 08

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lillestrøm

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sarpsborg 08

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lillestrøm ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sarpsborg 08
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.24
23.53
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.53
27.24
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lillestrøm +0.38 Efficiency Index
vs
Sarpsborg 08 -0.38 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lillestrøm
Sarpsborg 08
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lillestrøm ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sarpsborg 08
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lillestrøm Sarpsborg 08
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
2.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lillestrøm Sarpsborg 08
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 2.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lillestrøm
Sarpsborg 08
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lillestrøm
vs
Sarpsborg 08
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lillestrøm Sarpsborg 08
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lillestrøm 0.23
Sarpsborg 08 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lillestrøm Sarpsborg 08
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lillestrøm 0.00
Sarpsborg 08 0.09
Lillestrøm
Sarpsborg 08
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Lillestrøm had peak pressure around 8'.
  • Lillestrøm started the game with stronger pressure.
Lillestrøm Pressure Sarpsborg 08 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Lillestrøm reached the top pressure at 8' (91.09).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 24 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lillestrøm Lillestrøm Home
24 matches
Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 Away
Match Record
9
Wins
9
6
Draws
6
9
Losses
9
Goals
38
Goals Scored
33
33
Goals Conceded
38
+5
Goal Difference
-5

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:03:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
P. Dahlberg
Sweden
12 P. Dahlberg
L. Ranger
Norway
2 L. Ranger
L. Gabrielsen
Norway
28 L. Gabrielsen
U. Yttergård Jenssen
Norway
23 U. Yttergård Jenssen
S. Ottesen
Substitution
Norway
3 S. Ottesen
Y. Ibrahimaj
Kosovo
29 Y. Ibrahimaj
S. Drammeh
Substitution
Gambia
15 S. Drammeh
G. Kjølstad Nyheim
Norway
14 G. Kjølstad Nyheim
M. Karlsbakk
Substitution
Norway
8 M. Karlsbakk
V. António Félix
Angola
20 V. António Félix
K. Arierhi
Substitution
9 K. Arierhi
Pitch
L. Øy
Norway
87 L. Øy
A. Hiim
Norway
21 A. Hiim
M. Koch
Substitution
Netherlands
2 M. Koch
B. Utvik
Norway
4 B. Utvik
E. Wichne
Norway
32 E. Wichne
S. Christiansen
Substitution
Norway
8 S. Christiansen
A. Sher
Sweden
6 A. Sher
D. Seland Karlsbakk
Norway
11 D. Seland Karlsbakk
V. Halvorsen
Substitution
Norway
22 V. Halvorsen
S. Sørli
Substitution
Norway
10 S. Sørli
J. Berget
Substitution
Norway
14 J. Berget

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 7 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Åråsen Stadion
Capacity :
12250
Attendance :
6815
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mohammad Usman Aslam
Alf Olav Rossland
Dag Roger Nebben
Johan William Grundt

Statistics

Possession
Lillestrøm
50%
Sarpsborg 08
50%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
11 Shots 10
47 Dangerous attacks 40
49 Possession 51
3 Corners 3
11 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

25 Throwins 32
14 Dribble Attempts 13
2 Penalties 0
5 Successful Dribbles 4
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 31
9 Goal Kicks 6
2 Assists 0
4 Substitutions 5
82 Ball Safe 86
1 Injuries 0
0 Hit Woodwork 1
10 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

90 Attacks 82
5 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 83
403 Passes 417
349 Successful Passes 347
42 Long Passes 58
24 Successful Long Passes 27
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
8 Key Passes 5

Defensive

23 Tackles 22
48 Duels Won 49
5 Interceptions 7
1 Saves 0

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 12
2 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

12 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Mohammad Usman Aslam

Starting XI ▼

12
Pontus Dahlberg
Pontus Dahlberg Goalkeeper
7.29
2
Lars Ranger
Lars Ranger Defender
7.23
3
Sturla Ottesen
Sturla Ottesen Defender
7.07
26
Yaw Paintsil
Yaw Paintsil
Midfielder81'
6.92
23
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen Defender
6.64
28
Ruben Gabrielsen
Ruben Gabrielsen Defender
6.9
8
Markus Karlsbakk
Markus Karlsbakk Midfielder
7.22
6
Harald Woxen
Harald Woxen
Midfielder81'
6.52
14
Gustav Nyheim
Gustav Nyheim Midfielder
6.7
15
Salieu Drammeh
Salieu Drammeh Midfielder
6.76
7
Linus Alperud
Linus Alperud
Midfielder90+1'
6.39
20
Felix Vá
Felix Vá Midfielder
7.21
29
Y. Ibrahimaj
Y. Ibrahimaj Midfielder
7
9
Kparobo Arierhi
Kparobo Arierhi Attacker
6.8
19
Camil Jebara
Camil Jebara
Attacker69'
6.65
Referee : Mohammad Usman Aslam

Starting XI ▼

87
L. Øy
L. Øy Goalkeeper
5.56
2
Menno Koch
Menno Koch Defender
6.6
5
Magnar Odegaard
Magnar Odegaard
Defender80'
6.2
4
Bjørn Inge Utvik
Bjørn Inge Utvik Defender
7.11
21
Anders Hiim
Anders Hiim Defender
6.89
32
Eirik Wichne
Eirik Wichne Defender
6.45
6
Aimar Sher
Aimar Sher Midfielder
7.53
8
Sander Christiansen
Sander Christiansen Midfielder
6.78
18
Bop Guèye
Bop Guèye
Midfielder80'
6.53
10
Sondre Sörli
Sondre Sörli Midfielder
6.72
81
Mathias Svenningsen-Grønn
Mathias Svenningsen-Grønn
Midfielder80'
6.4
11
Daniel Karlsbakk
Daniel Karlsbakk Midfielder
6.51
22
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen Midfielder
6.76
33
Andreas Hansen
Andreas Hansen
Midfielder60'
6.9
14
Jo Inge Berget
Jo Inge Berget Attacker
6.66
17
Noa Williams
Noa Williams
Midfielder60'
6.59

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Linus Alperud → Salieu Drammeh
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Salieu Drammeh
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
90'
Event
Yaw Paintsil → Sturla Ottesen
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Harald Woxen → Markus Karlsbakk
8th Substitution
81'
80'
Event
Mathias Svenningsen-Grønn → Sondre Sörli
4th Substitution
80'
Event
Magnar Odegaard → Menno Koch
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Bop Guèye → Sander Christiansen
5th Substitution
Event
Camil Jebara
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
76'
75'
Event
Anders Hiim
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Camil Jebara → Kparobo Arierhi
3rd Substitution
69'
61'
Event
Menno Koch
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
61'
Event
Bjørn Inge Utvik
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
60'
Event
Andreas Hansen → Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Noa Williams → Jo Inge Berget
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
29'
Event
Gustav Nyheim
Header / 1st Goal
11'
Event
Markus Karlsbakk
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
4'

CONCLUSION

Lillestrøm's dominant 4-0 triumph over Sarpsborg 08 highlighted their home prowess, building a 2-0 halftime lead and maintaining control despite near-even possession. The hosts outshone the pre-designated stronger visitors through sharp finishing and resilience, enforcing a shutout. With minimal structural deviation, efficiencies in line, and no distortions from reds or events, the result offers a straightforward validation of Lillestrøm's preparation. Sarpsborg 08's inability to capitalize exposed key weaknesses, while market alignment affirms the predictability of this comprehensive win.

Lillestrøm vs Sarpsborg 08 preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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