Sassuolo vs AC Milan Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore Sun, 3 May - 1:00 PM
Serie A
Sassuolo SAS
2 Winner 0
AC Milan MIL
Full Time Sun, 3 May 1:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Armand Laurienté - 47'
Domenico Berardi - 5'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Fikayo Tomori 24'

CONTEXT

In a stunning upset, Sassuolo secured a 2-0 victory over pre-match favorites AC Milan at home, flipping expectations on their head. The hosts grabbed a 1-0 lead by halftime through sharp finishing and edged possession at 58% for the match. AC Milan's second-half ambitions crumbled after a red card left them with ten men, severely distorting the contest's structure. Sassuolo maintained composure, adding a second goal while thwarting attacks on the visitors' 42% possession share. This result underscores the underdogs' resilience, tactical discipline, and ability to exploit opponent errors against a stronger side. Milan's lapse in discipline proved costly, handing Sassuolo a clean-sheet triumph.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sassuolo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies shifted in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment remains undetermined due to unavailable expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment failed as Sassuolo's victory contradicted AC Milan's favoritism.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed without supporting data.
  • Event impact: AC Milan's red card delivered substantial event impact by shifting second-half control.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion dominated second-half adjustments, aiding Sassuolo's dominance.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Maresca

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Peretti

1st Assistant

L. Marinelli

4th Official

F. Bercigli

2nd Assistant

Sassuolo F. Grosso
F. Grosso
VS
AC Milan M. Allegri
M. Allegri
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.92
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fiorentina Rank: 77 D
Como Rank: 83 W
Genoa Rank: 73 L
Cagliari Rank: 71 W
Juventus Rank: 86 D
Bologna Rank: 78 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juventus Rank: 85 D
Hellas Verona Rank: 63 W
Udinese Rank: 74 L
Napoli Rank: 86 L
Torino Rank: 74 W
Lazio Rank: 81 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 5 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sassuolo
20.93%
Draw
24%
Away AC Milan
55.07%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sassuolo
-76.96%
Draw
+22.08%
AC Milan
+54.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.42
84.06
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sassuolo
AC Milan
Power Score
63.42
84.06
League Position
9
3
Global Rank
93
40

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sassuolo — Opponent-weighted form score
AC Milan — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sassuolo AC Milan

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sassuolo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AC Milan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sassuolo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AC Milan
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.95
21.90
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.90
25.95
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sassuolo +0.41 Efficiency Index
vs
AC Milan -0.41 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sassuolo
AC Milan
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sassuolo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AC Milan
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sassuolo AC Milan
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sassuolo AC Milan
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sassuolo
AC Milan
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sassuolo
vs
AC Milan
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sassuolo AC Milan
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sassuolo 0.32
AC Milan 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sassuolo AC Milan
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sassuolo 0.00
AC Milan 0.05
Sassuolo
AC Milan
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SAS had peak pressure around 81'.
  • SAS started the game with stronger pressure.
SAS Pressure MIL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SAS reached the top pressure at 81' (77.67).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sassuolo SAS Home
25 matches
AC Milan MIL Away
Match Record
7
Wins
13
5
Draws
5
13
Losses
7
Goals
37
Goals Scored
48
48
Goals Conceded
37
-11
Goal Difference
+11

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:03:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
S. Turati
Italy
13 S. Turati
S. Walukiewicz
Poland
6 S. Walukiewicz
J. Idzes
Substitution
Netherlands
21 J. Idzes
T. Muharemovic
Bosnia and Herzegovina
80 T. Muharemovic
U. Garcia Lopes
Switzerland
23 U. Garcia Lopes
I. Koné
Canada
90 I. Koné
N. Matić
Substitution
Serbia
18 N. Matić
K. Thorstvedt
Norway
42 K. Thorstvedt
D. Berardi
Substitution
Italy
10 D. Berardi
M. N'Zola
Substitution
Angola
8 M. N'Zola
A. Lauriente
Substitution
France
45 A. Lauriente
Pitch
M. Maignan
France
16 M. Maignan
S. Pavlović
Serbia
31 S. Pavlović
M. Gabbia
Italy
46 M. Gabbia
F. Tomori
England
23 F. Tomori
P. Estupiñán Tenorio
Ecuador
2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
A. Rabiot
France
12 A. Rabiot
A. Jasari
Substitution
Switzerland
30 A. Jasari
Y. Fofana
Substitution
France
19 Y. Fofana
A. Saelemaekers
Substitution
Belgium
56 A. Saelemaekers
R. Conceição Leão
Substitution
Portugal
10 R. Conceição Leão
C. Nkunku
Substitution
France
18 C. Nkunku

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
Capacity :
21584
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Fabio Maresca
Giorgio Peretti
Livio Marinelli
Filippo Bercigli

Statistics

Possession
SAS
57%
MIL
43%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 1
41 Dangerous attacks 44
58 Possession 42
2 Corners 3
16 Free kicks 16
4 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

11 Dribble Attempts 10
7 Successful Dribbles 5
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
8 Throwins 11
5 Successful Headers 5
2 Assists 0
9 Goal Kicks 5
5 Substitutions 5
5 Injuries 1
7 Goal Attempts 6
87 Ball Safe 59

Attacking

89 Attacks 97
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

93 Successful Passes Percentage 87
509 Successful Passes 340
548 Passes 393
46 Long Passes 27
70 Successful Long Passes Percentage 74
12 Key Passes 3
32 Successful Long Passes 20

Defensive

45 Duels Won 37
18 Tackles 14
1 Saves 2
13 Interceptions 1

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 17
2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

16 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Fabio Maresca

Starting XI ▼

13
Stefano Turati
Stefano Turati Goalkeeper
6.99
6
Sebastian Walukiewicz
Sebastian Walukiewicz Defender
6.69
21
Jay Idzes
Jay Idzes Defender
6.69
25
Woyo Coulibaly
Woyo Coulibaly
Defender40'
6.52
23
Ulisses Garcia
Ulisses Garcia Defender
6.71
80
Tarik Muharemović
Tarik Muharemović Defender
6.95
18
Nemanja Matic
Nemanja Matic Midfielder
6.82
35
Luca Lipani
Luca Lipani
Midfielder46'
6.53
42
Kristian Thorstvedt
Kristian Thorstvedt Midfielder
6.91
90
Ismaël Koné
Ismaël Koné Midfielder
6.83
8
M'Bala Nzola
M'Bala Nzola Attacker
6.7
99
Andrea Pinamonti
Andrea Pinamonti
Attacker84'
6.75
10
Domenico Berardi
Domenico Berardi Attacker
7.15
7
Cristian Volpato
Cristian Volpato
Midfielder59'
6.84
45
Armand Laurienté
Armand Laurienté Attacker
6.98
20
Alieu Fadera
Alieu Fadera
Attacker84'
6.63
Referee : Fabio Maresca

Starting XI ▼

16
Mike Maignan
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper
7.1
23
Fikayo Tomori
Fikayo Tomori Defender
6.98
31
Strahinja Pavlović
Strahinja Pavlović Defender
6.98
46
Matteo Gabbia
Matteo Gabbia Defender
6.91
2
Pervis Estupiñán
Pervis Estupiñán Midfielder
6.74
12
Adrien Rabiot
Adrien Rabiot Midfielder
7.29
19
Youssouf Fofana
Youssouf Fofana Midfielder
6.83
11
Christian Pulisic
Christian Pulisic
Midfielder59'
7.12
30
Ardon Jashari
Ardon Jashari Midfielder
6.85
4
Samuele Ricci
Samuele Ricci
Midfielder66'
6.81
56
Alexis Saelemaekers
Alexis Saelemaekers Midfielder
7.14
8
Ruben Loftus-Cheek
Ruben Loftus-Cheek
Midfielder59'
6.71
10
Rafael Leão
Rafael Leão Attacker
7.04
7
Santiago Gimenez
Santiago Gimenez
Attacker59'
6.56
18
Christopher Nkunku
Christopher Nkunku Attacker
6.75
24
Zachary Athekame
Zachary Athekame
Defender46'
6.58

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alieu Fadera
Simulation / 7th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Cristian Volpato
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Alieu Fadera → Armand Laurienté
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Andrea Pinamonti → M'Bala Nzola
10th Substitution
84'
77'
Event
Ruben Loftus-Cheek 
Simulation / 5th Yellowcard
71'
Event
Samuele Ricci
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
66'
Event
Samuele Ricci → Ardon Jashari
8th Substitution
Event
Cristian Volpato → Domenico Berardi
7th Substitution
59'
59'
Event
Santiago Gimenez → Rafael Leão
5th Substitution
59'
Event
Ruben Loftus-Cheek  → Alexis Saelemaekers
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Christian Pulisic → Youssouf Fofana
6th Substitution
Event
Ulisses Garcia
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
57'
Event
Armand Laurienté
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
47'
Event
Luca Lipani → Nemanja Matic
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Zachary Athekame → Christopher Nkunku
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Woyo Coulibaly → Jay Idzes
1st Substitution
40'
Event
Nemanja Matic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
38'
24'
Event
Fikayo Tomori
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
9'
Event
Fikayo Tomori
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Domenico Berardi
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
5'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alieu Fadera receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Christian Pulisic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cristian Volpato receives a yellow card.
86
Attempt Attempt
Starhinja Pavlovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
85
Update Update
Alieu Fadera replaces Armand Lauriente.
84
Update Update
Andrea Pinamonti comes on for MBala Nzola.
81
Attempt Attempt
Zachary Athekame takes a right-footed shot but misses.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ruben Loftus-Cheek receives a yellow card.
76
Attempt Attempt
MBala Nzola takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Samuele Ricci receives a yellow card.
70
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Volpato takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
66
Substitution Substitution
Samuele Ricci is substituted off for Ardon Jashari.
62
Attempt Attempt
Ardon Jashari takes a left-footed shot but misses.
59
Update Update
Ruben Loftus-Cheek comes on for Alexis Saelemaekers.
59
Update Update
Christian Pulisic comes on for Youssouf Fofana.
59
Update Update
Santiago Gimenez comes on for Rafael Leao.
59
Update Update
Cristian Volpato comes on for Domenico Berardi.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ulisses Garcia receives a yellow card.
55
Attempt Attempt
MBala Nzola takes a left-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Thorstvedt takes a header shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Thorstvedt attempts a header but misses the shot.
50
Attempt Attempt
Domenico Berardi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Zachary Athekame takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Armand Lauriente scores with a right-footed shot.
46
Update Update
Luca Lipani comes on for Nemanja Matic.
46
Update Update
Zachary Athekame replaces Christopher Nkunku.
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alexis Saelemaekers with his left foot misses the target.
40
Update Update
Woyo Coulibaly replaces Jay Idzes.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nemanja Matic receives a yellow card.
36
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Thorstvedt takes a left-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Domenico Berardi's left-footed shot is blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Armand Lauriente's left-footed shot is blocked.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Fikayo Tomori receives a second yellow card.
18
Attempt Attempt
Rafael Leao takes a left-footed shot but misses.
17
Attempt Attempt
Ulisses Garcia takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
9
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Fikayo Tomori receives a yellow card.
7
Attempt Attempt
MBala Nzola takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
5
Update Update
Goal! Domenico Berardi scores to make it 1-0.
5
Attempt Attempt
Domenico Berardi takes a shot with his left foot and scores a goal.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Fabio Maresca.

CONCLUSION

Sassuolo's disciplined 2-0 defeat of AC Milan highlights football's volatility, where a single red card can redefine outcomes. Holding a 1-0 halftime edge with 58% possession, the hosts masterfully exploited Milan's numerical disadvantage post-dismissal. The visitors, holding just 42% ball share, faltered in chance creation despite their stronger billing. This clean-sheet win boosts Sassuolo's morale and standings, while serving Milan a lesson in composure. Tactical nous and error punishment propelled the underdogs forward, proving that execution often trumps reputation in tight encounters.

Sassuolo vs AC Milan preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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