St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Millerntor-Stadion Sun, 3 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
St. Pauli PAU
1 Winner 2
FSV Mainz 05 M05
Full Time Sun, 3 May 1:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Abdoulie Ceesay - 87'
Goal
|
Goal
Grenddy Perozo - 40'
Phillip Tietz - 6'

CONTEXT

FSV Mainz 05 claimed a hard-fought 2-1 victory over St. Pauli in a pulsating Bundesliga clash. The away side stormed into a commanding 2-0 lead by halftime, silencing the home crowd as St. Pauli struggled to create clear chances early on. Despite holding 52% possession overall, the hosts mounted a second-half comeback attempt, pulling one back through determined pressing and clinical finishing. However, Mainz's defensive resilience and counter-attacking threat held firm, securing the three points for the stronger team on paper. This result highlighted Mainz's ability to outperform expectations significantly, with a 62.8% structural deviation underscoring their dominance beyond surface stats. Possession edges didn't translate to goals for St. Pauli, while Mainz converted efficiently without red card disruptions or major tactical shifts. The market's pre-match lean towards the visitors proved spot-on, aligning perfectly with the final outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FSV Mainz 05 benefited from a significant 62.8% structural deviation in the result.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be evaluated due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remained unassessable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Gerach

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Gansloweit

4th Official

A. Sather

1st Assistant

P. Kessel

2nd Assistant

St. Pauli A. Blessin
A. Blessin
VS
FSV Mainz 05 U. Fischer
U. Fischer
0.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Heidenheim Rank: 70 L
FC Köln Rank: 75 D
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 73 D
SC Freiburg Rank: 82 L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 77 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 75 D
SC Freiburg Rank: 81 L
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 84 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 W
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Pauli
33.66%
Draw
29.16%
Away FSV Mainz 05
37.18%

Movement

Changes since opening
St. Pauli
+33.47%
Draw
+24.58%
FSV Mainz 05
-58.05%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.56
80.65
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Pauli
FSV Mainz 05
Power Score
71.56
80.65
League Position
17
10
Global Rank
168
57

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Pauli — Opponent-weighted form score
FSV Mainz 05 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Pauli FSV Mainz 05

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

St. Pauli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FSV Mainz 05

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

St. Pauli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FSV Mainz 05
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.42
40.31
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.31
24.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
St. Pauli -1.40 Efficiency Index
vs
FSV Mainz 05 +1.40 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
St. Pauli
FSV Mainz 05
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

St. Pauli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FSV Mainz 05
Created Set-piece attacking threat
St. Pauli FSV Mainz 05
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
St. Pauli FSV Mainz 05
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
St. Pauli
FSV Mainz 05
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
St. Pauli
vs
FSV Mainz 05
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
St. Pauli FSV Mainz 05
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
St. Pauli 0.19
FSV Mainz 05 0.36
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
St. Pauli FSV Mainz 05
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
St. Pauli 0.04
FSV Mainz 05 0.02
St. Pauli
FSV Mainz 05
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • M05 had peak pressure around 39'.
  • PAU started the game with stronger pressure.
PAU Pressure M05 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: M05 reached the top pressure at 39' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Pauli PAU Home
5 matches
FSV Mainz 05 M05 Away
Match Record
0
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
3
-8
Goal Difference
+8

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:03:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
N. Vasilj
Bosnia and Herzegovina
22 N. Vasilj
T. Ando
Japan
15 T. Ando
H. Wahl
Germany
5 H. Wahl
K. Mets
Estonia
3 K. Mets
A. Pyrka
Poland
11 A. Pyrka
J. Irvine
Substitution
Australia
7 J. Irvine
E. Smith
Substitution
Sweden
8 E. Smith
L. Ritzka
Substitution
Germany
21 L. Ritzka
D. Sinani
Substitution
Luxembourg
10 D. Sinani
J. Fujita
Japan
16 J. Fujita
A. Hountondji
Substitution
France
27 A. Hountondji
Pitch
D. Batz
Germany
33 D. Batz
K. Potulski
Substitution
Poland
48 K. Potulski
S. Posch
Austria
4 S. Posch
D. Vieira da Costa
Germany
21 D. Vieira da Costa
P. Mwene
Austria
2 P. Mwene
N. Amiri
Substitution
Germany
10 N. Amiri
K. Sano
Japan
6 K. Sano
P. Nebel
Germany
8 P. Nebel
S. Widmer
Substitution
Switzerland
30 S. Widmer
P. Tietz
Substitution
Germany
20 P. Tietz
S. Becker
Substitution
Suriname
23 S. Becker

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Millerntor-Stadion
Capacity :
29546
Attendance :
29546
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Timo Gansloweit
Alexander Sather
Patrick Kessel
Timo Gerach

Statistics

Possession
PAU
51%
M05
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 5
7 Shots 15
54 Dangerous attacks 47
52 Possession 48
7 Corners 7
8 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

24 Throwins 23
18 Successful Headers 22
13 Dribble Attempts 13
0 Injuries 3
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
6 Successful Dribbles 6
90 Ball Safe 98
6 Goal Attempts 9
4 Goal Kicks 10
1 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

115 Attacks 96
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

493 Passes 465
84 Successful Passes Percentage 81
412 Successful Passes 378
29 Successful Long Passes 22
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
10 Key Passes 12
58 Long Passes 64

Defensive

6 Interceptions 9
15 Tackles 15
46 Duels Won 53
3 Saves 1

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 11
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

10 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Timo Gerach

Starting XI ▼

22
Nikola Vasilj
Nikola Vasilj Goalkeeper
6.82
3
Karol Mets
Karol Mets Defender
6.62
5
Hauke Wahl
Hauke Wahl Defender
6.81
15
T. Ando
T. Ando Defender
6.66
7
Jackson Irvine
Jackson Irvine Midfielder
6.78
20
Mathias Rasmussen
Mathias Rasmussen
Midfielder84'
6.62
8
Eric Smith
Eric Smith Midfielder
6.88
9
Abdoulie Ceesay
Abdoulie Ceesay
Attacker65'
6.5
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Arkadiusz Pyrka Midfielder
6.66
21
Lars Ritzka
Lars Ritzka Midfielder
6.61
25
Adam Dzwigala
Adam Dzwigala
Defender46'
6.74
10
Danel Sinani
Danel Sinani Attacker
7.04
24
Connor Metcalfe
Connor Metcalfe
Midfielder46'
6.55
16
Joel Chima Fujita
Joel Chima Fujita Attacker
6.79
27
Andréas Hountondji
Andréas Hountondji Attacker
6.53
19
Martijn Kaars
Martijn Kaars
Attacker65'
6.58
Referee : Timo Gerach

Starting XI ▼

33
Daniel Batz
Daniel Batz Goalkeeper
6.99
4
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch Defender
6.84
21
Danny da Costa
Danny da Costa Defender
6.79
48
Kacper Potulski
Kacper Potulski Defender
6.91
31
Dominik Kohr
Dominik Kohr
Midfielder76'
6.82
2
Grenddy Perozo
Grenddy Perozo Midfielder
6.65
6
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Midfielder
6.98
8
Paul Nebel
Paul Nebel Midfielder
6.9
10
Nadiem Amiri
Nadiem Amiri Midfielder
7.37
15
Lennard Maloney
Lennard Maloney
Midfielder84'
6.51
30
Silvan Widmer
Silvan Widmer Midfielder
6.71
19
Anthony Caci
Anthony Caci
Defender77'
7.05
20
Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz Attacker
6.5
44
Nelson Weiper
Nelson Weiper
Attacker84'
6.54
23
Sheraldo Becker
Sheraldo Becker Attacker
6.85
11
Armindo Sieb
Armindo Sieb
Attacker72'
6.57

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Abdoulie Ceesay
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Connor Metcalfe
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Karol Mets
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
88'
Event
Abdoulie Ceesay
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
87'
Event
Mathias Rasmussen → Jackson Irvine
9th Substitution
84'
84'
Event
Lennard Maloney → Nadiem Amiri
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Nelson Weiper → Phillip Tietz
10th Substitution
77'
Event
Anthony Caci → Silvan Widmer
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Dominik Kohr → Kacper Potulski
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Armindo Sieb → Sheraldo Becker
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Daniel Batz
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Abdoulie Ceesay → Eric Smith
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Martijn Kaars → Andréas Hountondji
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Adam Dzwigala → Lars Ritzka
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Connor Metcalfe → Danel Sinani
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Grenddy Perozo
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
6'
Event
Phillip Tietz
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Conor Metcalfe receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Phillipp Mwene takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Joeru Fujita takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Abdoulie Ceesay receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Abdoulie Ceesay takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Karol Mets receives a yellow card.
87
Attempt Attempt
Abdoulie Ceesay scores with a right-footed shot.
84
Update Update
Lennard Maloney comes on for Nadiem Amiri.
84
Update Update
Nelson Weiper replaces Phillip Tietz.
84
Update Update
Matias Rasmussen comes on for Jackson Irvine.
77
Update Update
Anthony Caci is on, and Silvan Widmer is off.
76
Update Update
Dominik Kohr comes on for Kacper Potulski.
74
Attempt Attempt
Martijn Kaars takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Update Update
Armindo Sieb replaces Sheraldo Becker.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Daniel Batz receives a yellow card.
67
Update Update
Hauke Wahl's header is blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Phillip Tietz takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
65
Update Update
Abdoulie Ceesay replaces Eric Smith.
65
Update Update
Taichi Hara is on, and Andreas Hountondji is off.
65
Attempt Attempt
Phillipp Mwene takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
65
Attempt Attempt
Phillip Tietz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Conor Metcalfe takes a left-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Kaishu Sano's right-footed shot is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Phillipp Mwene is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Sheraldo Becker's header is saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Nadiem Amiri takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Update Update
Conor Metcalfe comes on for Daniel Sinani.
46
Update Update
Adam Dzwigala is on, and Lars Ritzka is off.
40
Attempt Attempt
Phillipp Mwene scores with a left-footed shot.
40
Update Update
Goal! Phillipp Mwene scores, making it 0-2.
37
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Posch's header is saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Danny Vieira da Costa attempted a header but missed the shot.
31
Attempt Attempt
Nadiem Amiri's right-footed shot is blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Nadiem Amiri's right-footed shot is blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Phillip Tietz takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Nadiem Amiri takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Nadiem Amiri takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Jackson Irvine takes a right-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Lars Ritzka takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Phillip Tietz scores with a right-footed shot.
4
Attempt Attempt
Hauke Wahl takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
4
Update Update
Tomoya Ando takes a header, but it misses the target.

CONCLUSION

FSV Mainz 05's 2-1 triumph over St. Pauli reinforces their credentials as a top-flight contender, blending early aggression with second-half solidity. Leading 2-0 at the break set the tone, allowing them to absorb pressure despite St. Pauli's possession advantage. This win, marked by significant structural deviation and market alignment, boosts Mainz's momentum without relying on xG insights or disruptive events. St. Pauli showed fight but lacked the edge to overturn the deficit, highlighting areas for refinement in conversion. Overall, Mainz's victory feels earned, positioning them favorably in the standings as they navigate a demanding schedule ahead.

St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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