Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rijeka Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Kranjčevićeva Sun, 3 May - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb
0 Winner 3
Rijeka Rijeka
Full Time Sun, 3 May 2:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
|
Goal
Merveil Ndockyt - 81'
Daniel Adu-Adjei - 54', 14'

CONTEXT

Rijeka claimed a decisive 3-0 win against Lokomotiva Zagreb, asserting dominance from the outset. The visitors struck first before halftime, leading 1-0 at the break with 54% possession compared to the hosts' 46%. Lokomotiva mounted little threat post-interval, as Rijeka added two more goals to seal the victory. Identified as the stronger team beforehand, Rijeka's performance generated a significant 57.1% structural deviation in their favor, aligning with their favored status. No red cards marred the contest, and the game flowed without notable second-half tactical shifts. Defensive solidity ensured a clean sheet, while the scoreline reflected Rijeka's superior execution despite balanced possession. This result bolsters Rijeka's standing in the Croatian top flight.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rijeka's 3-0 win produced a significant 57.1% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome aligned fully with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without available metrics.
  • Event impact: No impactful events or adjustments altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to game structure.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Terzić

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Škobić

4th Official

M. Tomas

1st Assistant

L. Vidak

2nd Assistant

Lokomotiva Zagreb N. Jelavić
N. Jelavić
VS
Rijeka V. Sánchez del Amo
V. Sánchez del Amo
1.19
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.45
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osijek Rank: 63 D
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 63 W
Gorica Rank: 61 W
Istra 1961 Rank: 64 W
Vukovar Rank: 57 D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 81 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hajduk Split Rank: 71 D
Varaždin Rank: 65 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 D
Osijek Rank: 62 L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 W
Gorica Rank: 62 L
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 11 - 34
34

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lokomotiva Zagreb
28.79%
Draw
28.35%
Away Rijeka
42.86%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lokomotiva Zagreb
+28.47%
Draw
+25.98%
Rijeka
-54.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.78
70.95
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rijeka
Power Score
62.78
70.95
League Position
5
4
Global Rank
405
184

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lokomotiva Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lokomotiva Zagreb Rijeka

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lokomotiva Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
11.09
22.96
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.96
11.09
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lokomotiva Zagreb -1.18 Efficiency Index
vs
Rijeka +1.18 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rijeka
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lokomotiva Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rijeka
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rijeka
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rijeka
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lokomotiva Zagreb
vs
Rijeka
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rijeka
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.07
Rijeka 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rijeka
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.06
Rijeka 0.00
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rijeka
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Rijeka had peak pressure around 31'.
  • Rijeka started the game with stronger pressure.
Lokomotiva Zagreb Pressure Rijeka Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Rijeka reached the top pressure at 31' (82.77).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 60 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb Home
60 matches
Rijeka Rijeka Away
Match Record
15
Wins
34
11
Draws
11
34
Losses
15
Goals
56
Goals Scored
110
110
Goals Conceded
56
-54
Goal Difference
+54

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:04:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
J. Posavec
Croatia
12 J. Posavec
M. Vešović
Substitution
Montenegro
23 M. Vešović
D. Kolinger
Croatia
20 D. Kolinger
L. Dajčer
Substitution
Croatia
16 L. Dajčer
M. Pajač
Croatia
17 M. Pajač
M. Subotic
Substitution
Croatia
10 M. Subotic
B. Bošković
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6 B. Bošković
J. Vasilj
Croatia
29 J. Vasilj
L. Belcar
Substitution
Croatia
28 L. Belcar
D. Vuković
Substitution
Montenegro
30 D. Vuković
A. Stojaković
Slovenia
15 A. Stojaković
Pitch
M. Zlomislić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
13 M. Zlomislić
M. Devetak
Substitution
Serbia
34 M. Devetak
S. Radeljić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6 S. Radeljić
A. Majstorović
Croatia
45 A. Majstorović
J. Lasickas
Lithuania
23 J. Lasickas
A. Barco Del Solar
Peru
55 A. Barco Del Solar
B. Pavić
Croatia
66 B. Pavić
A. Oreč
Substitution
Croatia
22 A. Oreč
A. Gojak
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 A. Gojak
T. Dantas
Substitution
Portugal
26 T. Dantas
D. Adu-Adjei
Substitution
England
18 D. Adu-Adjei

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Kranjčevićeva
Capacity :
8850
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ante Terzić
Antonio Škobić
Marjan Tomas
Luka Vidak

Statistics

Possession
Lokomotiva Zagreb
48%
Rijeka
52%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 2
1 Shots 4
42 Dangerous attacks 48
46 Possession 54
1 Corners 1
14 Free kicks 17
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 2
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 0
29 Throwins 23
8 Successful Dribbles 0
14 Dribble Attempts 4
0 Assists 3
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

103 Attacks 120
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
261 Successful Passes 314
48 Long Passes 61
80 Successful Passes Percentage 83
325 Passes 377
19 Successful Long Passes 30

Defensive

7 Interceptions 9
42 Duels Won 42
7 Tackles 19
1 Saves 1

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 10
4 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

17 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Ante Terzić

Starting XI ▼

12
Josip Posavec
Josip Posavec Goalkeeper
6.74
16
Luka Dajcer
Luka Dajcer Defender
6.61
3
Teodor Kralevski
Teodor Kralevski
Defender83'
6.41
17
Marko Pajac
Marko Pajac Defender
7.13
20
Denis Kolinger
Denis Kolinger Defender
6.78
23
Marko Vesovic
Marko Vesovic Defender
6.88
2
Petar Zvonimir Kostelac
Petar Zvonimir Kostelac
Midfielder89'
6
Blaz Boskovic
Blaz Boskovic Midfielder
6.92
10
Matija Subotic
Matija Subotic Midfielder
6.67
14
Marcel Lorber
Marcel Lorber
Midfielder46'
6.45
28
Leon Belcar
Leon Belcar Midfielder
6.73
25
Pavle Smiljanic
Pavle Smiljanic
Midfielder83'
6.47
29
Jakov-Anton Vasilj
Jakov-Anton Vasilj Midfielder
6.71
30
Dušan Vuković
Dušan Vuković Midfielder
6.65
9
Ibrahim Sabra
Ibrahim Sabra
Attacker61'
6.66
15
Aleks Stojakovic
Aleks Stojakovic Attacker
6.8
Referee : Ante Terzić

Starting XI ▼

13
Martin Zlomislic
Martin Zlomislic Goalkeeper
6.67
6
Stjepan Radeljic
Stjepan Radeljic Defender
6.95
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic Defender
6.89
55
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar Defender
6.48
14
Amer Gojak
Amer Gojak Midfielder
6.6
24
Christian Ouguehi Legbo
Christian Ouguehi Legbo
Attacker82'
6.54
22
Ante Orec
Ante Orec Midfielder
7
20
Merveil Ndockyt
Merveil Ndockyt
Midfielder79'
6.67
23
Justas Lasickas
Justas Lasickas Midfielder
6.69
26
Tiago Dantas
Tiago Dantas Midfielder
7.33
10
Toni Fruk
Toni Fruk
Midfielder79'
7.2
34
Mladen Devetak
Mladen Devetak Midfielder
6.65
91
Noel Bodetic
Noel Bodetic
Defender90+3'
6.69
66
Branko Pavic
Branko Pavic Midfielder
6.75
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei Attacker
2
6.72
9
Duje Cop
Duje Cop
Attacker79'
6.59

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Noel Bodetic → Mladen Devetak
10th Substitution
Event
Blaz Boskovic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Petar Zvonimir Kostelac → Marko Vesovic
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Teodor Kralevski → Luka Dajcer
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Pavle Smiljanic → Leon Belcar
8th Substitution
83'
82'
Event
Christian Ouguehi Legbo → Amer Gojak
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Merveil Ndockyt
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
79'
Event
Duje Cop → Daniel Adu-Adjei
3rd Substitution
79'
Event
Toni Fruk → Tiago Dantas
4th Substitution
79'
Event
Merveil Ndockyt → Ante Orec
5th Substitution
Event
Ibrahim Sabra → Dušan Vuković
2nd Substitution
61'
54'
Event
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Marko Pajac
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
52'
Event
Marko Vesovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
51'
51'
Event
Víctor Sánchez
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Marcel Lorber → Matija Subotic
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
14'
Event
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Noel Bodetic is substituted for Mladen Devetak.
89
Attempt Attempt
Toni Fruk takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Update Update
Petar Kostelac replaces Marko Vesovic.
83
Update Update
Teodor Kralevski replaces Luka Dajcer.
83
Update Update
Dimitri Legbo replaces Amer Gojak.
83
Update Update
Pavle Smiljanic comes on for Leon Belcar.
81
Attempt Attempt
Merveille Ndockyt scores with a right-footed shot.
79
Update Update
Merveille Ndockyt is on, and Ante Orec is off.
79
Update Update
Toni Fruk replaces Tiago Dantas.
79
Update Update
Duje Cop comes on for Daniel Adu Adjei.
76
Attempt Attempt
Ante Orec takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Amer Gojak takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
65
Attempt Attempt
Amer Gojak takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
64
Attempt Attempt
Marko Vesovic takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
54
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Adu Adjei takes a left-footed shot and scores.
53
Attempt Attempt
Alfonso Barco takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Marcel Lorber comes on for Matija Subotic.
45
Attempt Attempt
Blaz Boskovic's header is saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Ante Orec takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Tiago Dantas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Luka Dajcer takes a left-footed shot but misses.
14
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Adu Adjei takes a right-footed shot and scores.

CONCLUSION

Rijeka's controlled 3-0 triumph over Lokomotiva Zagreb highlighted their edge as the stronger side, with a first-half goal paving the way for second-half extension. Possession tilted slightly their way at 54%, enabling efficient chance conversion and a shutout. Significant structural deviation underscored the result's decisiveness, while market alignment and steady efficiencies reinforced expectations. Lacking xG data curbs granular insights, yet the halftime 1-0 lead and lack of disruptions paint a clear picture of superiority. This performance solidifies Rijeka's competitive posture.

Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rijeka preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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