Casa Pia vs Tondela Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Pina Manique Sun, 3 May - 2:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Casa Pia CPAC
0 Winner 1
Tondela CDT
Full Time Sun, 3 May 2:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
|
Goal
Bebeto - 68' (P)
Cassiano 55' Red Card
Jérémy Livolant 90+11' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Casa Pia faced Tondela at home in a Primeira Liga encounter that concluded 0-1 to the visitors. The first half finished goalless at 0-0, with possession closely matched at 48% for Casa Pia and 52% for Tondela. The second half saw a dramatic shift as Casa Pia received two red cards, leaving them numerically disadvantaged and vulnerable. Despite being the stronger team on paper, Casa Pia failed to score, while Tondela netted the decisive goal. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation of 71.1% favoring Tondela. The red cards introduced a clear distortion, altering the game's flow and preventing typical play patterns from emerging. No xG data was available to assess underlying performance metrics.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited a 71.1% structural deviation favoring Tondela, rated as significant.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unassessable without recorded data.
  • Event impact: Two red cards to Casa Pia created a major event impact in the second half.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion occurred due to two dismissals for the home team.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Domingues Narciso

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Santos de Jesus Botelho

1st Assistant

R. da Silva

2nd Assistant

M. Viegas Brazão

4th Official

Casa Pia Á. Pacheco
Á. Pacheco
VS
Tondela G. Feio
G. Feio
0.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.76
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gil Vicente Rank: 69 L
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
Santa Clara Rank: 64 D
Alverca Rank: 65 L
Benfica Rank: 87 D
Estrela Amadora Rank: 58 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting CP Rank: 88 D
Nacional Rank: 64 L
Porto Rank: 86 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 D
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 72 L
AVS Rank: 58 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Casa Pia
41.02%
Draw
30.07%
Away Tondela
28.91%

Movement

Changes since opening
Casa Pia
+40.83%
Draw
+26.37%
Tondela
-67.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.44
52.9
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Casa Pia
Tondela
Power Score
62.44
52.9
League Position
16
17
Global Rank
406
481

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Casa Pia — Opponent-weighted form score
Tondela — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Casa Pia Tondela

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Casa Pia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Tondela

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Casa Pia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tondela
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
13.13
19.42
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.42
13.13
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Casa Pia -0.61 Efficiency Index
vs
Tondela +0.61 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Casa Pia
Tondela
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Casa Pia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tondela
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Casa Pia Tondela
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Casa Pia Tondela
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Casa Pia
Tondela
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Casa Pia
vs
Tondela
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Casa Pia Tondela
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Casa Pia 0.09
Tondela 0.41
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Casa Pia Tondela
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Casa Pia 0.05
Tondela 0.00
Casa Pia
Tondela
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CDT had peak pressure around 59'.
  • CPAC started the game with stronger pressure.
CPAC Pressure CDT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CDT reached the top pressure at 59' (69.63).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Casa Pia CPAC Home
1 matches
Tondela CDT Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:04:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
P. Sequeira Mejías
Costa Rica
1 P. Sequeira Mejías
J. Goulart Silva
Portugal
4 J. Goulart Silva
A. Geraldes de Barros
Substitution
Portugal
18 A. Geraldes de Barros
David Sousa
Brazil
43 David Sousa
G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
Substitution
Spain
72 G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
I. Mohamed
Comoros
24 I. Mohamed
R. Brito
Substitution
Portugal
8 R. Brito
A. Conté
Substitution
Portugal
5 A. Conté
J. Livolant
France
29 J. Livolant
C. Dias Moreira
Brazil
90 C. Dias Moreira
J. Freitas Silva Marques
Substitution
Portugal
11 J. Freitas Silva Marques
Pitch
B. Parise Fontes
Brazil
31 B. Parise Fontes
R. Fernandes Conceição
Portugal
27 R. Fernandes Conceição
C. Marques
Portugal
4 C. Marques
J. Antunes da Silva
Portugal
44 J. Antunes da Silva
T. Silva Manso
Substitution
Portugal
48 T. Silva Manso
J. Rodríguez López
Ecuador
32 J. Rodríguez López
C. Alves Santana
Substitution
Brazil
97 C. Alves Santana
M. Aiko
Substitution
France
90 M. Aiko
H. Sequeira
Portugal
79 H. Sequeira
P. Pereira dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
7 P. Pereira dos Santos
M. Mesquita Lopes
Substitution
Portugal
16 M. Mesquita Lopes

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Pina Manique
Capacity :
7000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
André Filipe Domingues Narciso
André Filipe Santos de Jesus Botelho
Rúben João Rodrigues da Silva
Marcos Roberto Viegas Brazão

Statistics

Possession
CPAC
49%
CDT
51%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 9
46 Dangerous attacks 22
48 Possession 52
7 Corners 2
19 Free kicks 21
1 Yellow Cards 0
2 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

17 Successful Headers 9
10 Dribble Attempts 12
7 Goal Kicks 7
0 Hit Woodwork 1
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
20 Throwins 11
4 Successful Dribbles 5
5 Substitutions 5
0 Penalties 1
2 Injuries 1
3 Goal Attempts 7
67 Ball Safe 63

Attacking

102 Attacks 92
1 Counter Attacks 3
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

75 Successful Passes Percentage 81
263 Successful Passes 329
353 Passes 404
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
57 Long Passes 55
23 Successful Long Passes 28
3 Key Passes 4

Defensive

51 Duels Won 46
12 Tackles 11
8 Interceptions 10
5 Saves 3

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 10
4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
22 Fouls 19

Lineup

Referee : André Filipe Domingues Narciso

Starting XI ▼

1
Patrick Sequeira
Patrick Sequeira Goalkeeper
6.65
4
João Goulart
João Goulart Defender
6.58
18
André Geraldes
André Geraldes Defender
6.5
21
Tiago Morais
Tiago Morais
Attacker72'
6.61
43
David Sousa
David Sousa Defender
6.74
5
Abdu Conté
Abdu Conté Midfielder
6.72
32
Kiki
Kiki
Attacker86'
8
Rafael Brito
Rafael Brito Midfielder
6.72
80
Lawrence Ofori
Lawrence Ofori
Midfielder58'
6.52
24
Iyad Mohamed
Iyad Mohamed Midfielder
6.57
72
Gaizka Larrazabal
Gaizka Larrazabal Midfielder
6.77
19
Kevin Prieto
Kevin Prieto
Attacker86'
6.58
11
João Marques
João Marques Attacker
6.73
10
Dailon Livramento
Dailon Livramento
Attacker57'
6.58
29
Jérémy Livolant
Jérémy Livolant Attacker
7.04
90
Cassiano
Cassiano Attacker
6.67
Referee : André Filipe Domingues Narciso

Starting XI ▼

31
Bernardo
Bernardo Goalkeeper
6.93
4
Christian Marques
Christian Marques Defender
6.68
27
Rodrigo Conceição
Rodrigo Conceição Defender
6.59
44
João Silva
João Silva Defender
6.68
48
Tiago Manso
Tiago Manso Defender
6.62
8
Hélder Tavares
Hélder Tavares
Midfielder64'
6.54
7
Maranhão
Maranhão Midfielder
6.92
15
Yaya Sithole
Yaya Sithole
Midfielder86'
6.57
32
Juanse
Juanse Midfielder
6.69
79
Hugo Félix
Hugo Félix Midfielder
6.74
90
Makan Aïko
Makan Aïko Midfielder
6.75
23
B. Kimpioka
B. Kimpioka
Attacker90+5'
6.57
97
Cícero
Cícero Midfielder
6.73
2
Bebeto
Bebeto
Defender64'
6.76
16
Rony Lopes
Rony Lopes Attacker
6.98
26
Arjen van der Heide
Arjen van der Heide
Attacker87'
6.61

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jérémy Livolant
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+11'
Event
Kevin Prieto
Argument / 10th Yellowcard
90+9'
90+9'
Event
B. Kimpioka
Argument / 9th Yellowcard
Event
João Goulart
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
90+8'
90+5'
Event
B. Kimpioka → Makan Aïko
10th Substitution
Event
Iyad Mohamed
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90'
87'
Event
Arjen van der Heide → Rony Lopes
9th Substitution
Event
Kevin Prieto → Gaizka Larrazabal
6th Substitution
86'
Event
Kiki → Abdu Conté
7th Substitution
86'
86'
Event
Yaya Sithole → Maranhão
8th Substitution
Event
Tiago Morais
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
85'
75'
Event
Christian Marques
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Tiago Morais → André Geraldes
5th Substitution
72'
70'
Event
Maranhão
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
68'
Event
Bebeto
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
André Geraldes
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
64'
Event
Tiago Manso
Penalty awarded
64'
Event
Bebeto → Cícero
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Hélder Tavares → Tiago Manso
4th Substitution
Event
Lawrence Ofori → Rafael Brito
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Dailon Livramento → João Marques
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Cassiano
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
55'
Event
Cassiano
Card adjusted
53'
Event
Rafael Brito
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
Event
Jérémy Livolant
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
49'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Makan Aiko takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Dailon Rocha Livramento takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jeremy Livolant takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Felix Sequeira takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Benjamin Mbunga Kimpioka comes on for Makan Aiko.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joao Goulart Silva receives a yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card shown to Jeremy Livolant.
90
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Felix Sequeira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Makan Aiko takes a right-footed shot but misses.
87
Update Update
Arjen Van Der Heide comes on for Marcos Paulo Mesquita Lopes.
86
Update Update
Sphephelo Sithole comes on for Pedro Henryque Pereira dos Santos.
86
Update Update
Arjen Van Der Heide replaces Marcos Paulo Mesquita Lopes.
86
Update Update
Kevin Prieto comes on for Gaizka Larrazabal.
84
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Paulo Mesquita Lopes takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
83
Attempt Attempt
Jeremy Livolant takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Update Update
Tiago Morais replaces Andre Geraldes de Barros.
68
Attempt Attempt
Bebeto takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
64
Update Update
Penalty confirmed after a VAR decision.
64
Update Update
Helder Tavares replaces Tiago Manso.
63
Update Update
Bebeto is on, and Cicero Clebson Alves Santana is off.
58
Update Update
Lawrence Ofori is on, and Rafael Alexandre Sousa Gancho Brito is off.
57
Update Update
Dailon Rocha Livramento comes on for Joao Marques.
56
Attempt Attempt
Tiago Manso takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Felix Sequeira takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Henryque Pereira dos Santos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
David Sousa Albino takes a header, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Tondela's 0-1 win over Casa Pia exemplifies how red cards can decisively alter match outcomes. Despite even possession and a goalless first half, Casa Pia's two second-half dismissals handed Tondela a numerical edge they exploited for the only goal. As the stronger team, Casa Pia's discipline lapse led to a 71.1% structural deviation and misalignment with expectations. Efficiency held steady, but absent xG data limits deeper insights. This result highlights red card distortion's role in disrupting balance and enabling underdogs to prevail in compromised scenarios.

Casa Pia vs Tondela preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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