Elfsborg vs AIK Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Borås Arena Sun, 3 May - 2:30 PM
Allsvenskan
Elfsborg ELF
1 – 1
AIK AIK
Full Time Sun, 3 May 2:30 PM
Round 6 Regular Season
A. Sigurpálsson - 8'
Goal
|
Goal
Z. Yohanna - 9'

CONTEXT

Elfsborg hosted AIK in the Allsvenskan, ending in a 1-1 draw that reflected a balanced yet possession-heavy affair. The scoreline was identical at halftime, with each team netting once in the first period. AIK controlled 62% of possession against Elfsborg's 38%, asserting dominance as the stronger side, but failed to capitalize fully. No red cards were issued, maintaining full squad integrity throughout. The match exhibited a moderate 8.1% structural deviation attributed to AIK, indicating slight inefficiencies in converting control into goals. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with expectations, and market alignment held true. Absent xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis, but the even outcome underscores Elfsborg's resilience despite lower ball share. Second-half play lacked notable tactical shifts, preserving the deadlock.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match featured moderate 8.1% structural deviation for AIK.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed as true.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to null data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or events altered dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

O. Johnson

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Kristensson

1st Assistant

D. Gustavsson

2nd Assistant

N. Karlsson

4th Official

Elfsborg B. Hamberg
B. Hamberg
VS
AIK J. Riveiro
J. Riveiro
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kalmar Rank: 49 L
Djurgården Rank: 65 W
Degerfors Rank: 47 W
Västerås SK Rank: 47 D
IFK Göteborg Rank: 56 W
Hammarby Rank: 69 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Malmö FF Rank: 63 L
Degerfors Rank: 47 L
Kalmar Rank: 49 W
Brommapojkarna Rank: 48 D
Halmstad Rank: 47 W
Halmstad Rank: 47 L
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 13 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Elfsborg
4.07%
Draw
91.85%
Away AIK
4.07%

Movement

Changes since opening
Elfsborg
-0.4%
Draw
+0.78%
AIK
-0.4%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.86
57.37
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Elfsborg
AIK
Power Score
56.86
57.37
League Position
3
8
Global Rank
586
574

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Elfsborg — Opponent-weighted form score
AIK — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Elfsborg AIK

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Elfsborg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AIK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Elfsborg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AIK
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.37
23.15
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.15
32.37
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Elfsborg +0.92 Efficiency Index
vs
AIK -0.92 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Elfsborg
AIK
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Elfsborg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AIK
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Elfsborg AIK
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Elfsborg AIK
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Elfsborg
AIK
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Elfsborg
vs
AIK
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Elfsborg AIK
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Elfsborg 0.42
AIK 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Elfsborg AIK
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Elfsborg 0.02
AIK 0.04
Elfsborg
AIK
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ELF had peak pressure around 9'.
  • ELF started the game with stronger pressure.
ELF Pressure AIK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ELF reached the top pressure at 9' (78.35).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Elfsborg ELF Home
40 matches
AIK AIK Away
Match Record
13
Wins
14
13
Draws
13
14
Losses
13
Goals
58
Goals Scored
56
56
Goals Conceded
58
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:04:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
I. Pettersson
Sweden
31 I. Pettersson
S. Holmén
Sweden
8 S. Holmén
R. Wikström
Sweden
6 R. Wikström
T. Poppler-Isherwood
Sweden
4 T. Poppler-Isherwood
S. Hedlund
Substitution
Sweden
15 S. Hedlund
J. Magnússon
Iceland
18 J. Magnússon
S. Olsson
Sweden
10 S. Olsson
N. Hult
Sweden
23 N. Hult
F. Ihler
Substitution
Denmark
24 F. Ihler
T. Silverholt
Sweden
11 T. Silverholt
A. Sigurpálsson
Substitution
Iceland
25 A. Sigurpálsson
Pitch
K. Nordfeldt
Sweden
15 K. Nordfeldt
S. Wilson
Kenya
21 S. Wilson
I. Cissé
Ivory Coast
25 I. Cissé
A. Csongvai
Hungary
33 A. Csongvai
C. Pavey
Substitution
12 C. Pavey
A. Ali
Substitution
Sweden
18 A. Ali
B. Celina
Kosovo
10 B. Celina
A. Mujanic
Substitution
Sweden
7 A. Mujanic
J. Hove
Norway
8 J. Hove
Zadok Yohanna
36 Zadok Yohanna
E. Hovden Flataker
Substitution
Norway
9 E. Hovden Flataker

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 6 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Borås Arena
Capacity :
17800
Attendance :
10112
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Oscar Johnson
Simon Kristensson
Daniel Gustavsson
Niclas Karlsson

Statistics

Possession
ELF
41%
AIK
59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 3
26 Dangerous attacks 47
38 Possession 62
4 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

21 Throwins 19
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
6 Goal Kicks 8
8 Dribble Attempts 11
1 Assists 1
2 Successful Dribbles 5
1 Goal Attempts 1
22 Ball Safe 24
3 Substitutions 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

71 Attacks 90

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 89
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 66
54 Long Passes 68
300 Successful Passes 521
29 Successful Long Passes 45
361 Passes 584
7 Key Passes 6

Defensive

37 Duels Won 39
16 Tackles 13
13 Interceptions 8
4 Saves 2

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 3
10 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

12 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Oscar Johnson

Starting XI ▼

31
Isak Pettersson
Isak Pettersson Goalkeeper
6.69
4
Thomas Isherwood
Thomas Isherwood Defender
6.78
6
R. Wikström
R. Wikström Defender
6.88
8
Sebastian Holmén
Sebastian Holmén Defender
6.82
10
S. Olsson
S. Olsson Midfielder
7.02
15
Simon Hedlund
Simon Hedlund Midfielder
6.67
28
Frode Aronsson
Frode Aronsson
Defender82'
6.91
18
J. Magnússon
J. Magnússon Midfielder
7.1
23
Niklas Hult
Niklas Hult Midfielder
6.95
11
T. Silverholt
T. Silverholt Attacker
6.78
24
F. Ihler
F. Ihler Attacker
7.32
21
Leo Östman
Leo Östman
Attacker82'
6.51
25
A. Sigurpálsson
A. Sigurpálsson Attacker
6.71
29
M. Kamara
M. Kamara
Midfielder72'
6.44
Referee : Oscar Johnson

Starting XI ▼

15
Kristoffer Nordfeldt
Kristoffer Nordfeldt Goalkeeper
7.03
12
Charlie Pavey
Charlie Pavey Defender
6.74
17
Mads Thychosen
Mads Thychosen
Defender46'
6.45
21
Stanley Wilson
Stanley Wilson Defender
7.11
25
Ibrahim Cissé
Ibrahim Cissé Defender
7.17
33
Áron Csongvai
Áron Csongvai Defender
7.5
7
Amel Mujanic
Amel Mujanic Midfielder
6.62
46
Y. Geiger
Y. Geiger
Midfielder72'
6.64
8
Johan Hove
Johan Hove Midfielder
7.16
10
Bersant Celina
Bersant Celina Midfielder
7.29
18
Abdihakim Ali
Abdihakim Ali Midfielder
6.77
48
Axel Kouame
Axel Kouame
Midfielder85'
6.64
36
Z. Yohanna
Z. Yohanna Midfielder
7.21
9
Erik Flataker
Erik Flataker Attacker
6.74
29
Kevin Filling
Kevin Filling
Attacker72'
6.53

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Axel Kouame → Abdihakim Ali
7th Substitution
Event
Frode Aronsson → Simon Hedlund
5th Substitution
82'
Event
Leo Östman → F. Ihler
6th Substitution
82'
Event
M. Kamara → A. Sigurpálsson
4th Substitution
72'
72'
Event
Kevin Filling → Erik Flataker
2nd Substitution
72'
Event
Y. Geiger → Amel Mujanic
3rd Substitution
47'
Event
Áron Csongvai
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Mads Thychosen → Charlie Pavey
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
9'
Event
Z. Yohanna
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
A. Sigurpálsson
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
8'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Axel Kouame's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Johan Hove takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Bersant Celina takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Zadok Yohanna attempts a header but misses the shot.
85
Update Update
Axel Kouame comes on for Abdihakin Ali.
82
Update Update
Leo Ostman is on, and Frederik Ihler is off.
82
Update Update
Frode Aronsson replaces Simon Hedlund.
73
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Filling takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Update Update
On comes Kevin Filling, off goes Erik Hovden Flataker.
72
Update Update
Yannick Geiger comes on for Amel Mujanic.
72
Substitution Substitution
Momoh Kamara is substituted for Ari Sigurpalsson.
68
Attempt Attempt
Simon Olsson's header is saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Simon Hedlund's right-footed shot is blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Ari Sigurpalsson takes a left-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Simon Hedlund takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Julius Magnusson takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Update Update
Mads Thychosen replaces Charlie Pavey.
44
Attempt Attempt
Zadok Yohanna attempts a header but misses the shot.
41
Attempt Attempt
Frederik Ihler takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Amel Mujanic's right-footed shot is saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
Charlie Pavey's right-footed shot is blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Johan Hove's right-footed shot is saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Taylor Silverholt takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
27
Attempt Attempt
Ari Sigurpalsson's left-footed shot is blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Erik Hovden Flataker takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Amel Mujanic's left-footed shot is saved.
17
Attempt Attempt
Taylor Silverholt takes a left-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Zadok Yohanna takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
8
Attempt Attempt
Ari Sigurpalsson takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
6
Attempt Attempt
Frederik Ihler takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw highlighted AIK's possession edge without decisive breakthroughs, allowing Elfsborg to secure a point through defensive solidity. With halftime at 1-1 and no disciplinary disruptions, the result aligned with moderate structural deviation for the visitors. Efficiency held steady, and market consistency was evident, though xG absence prevents full performance nuance. AIK's superiority in control did not translate to victory, exposing minor conversion gaps. Elfsborg's compact setup neutralized threats effectively, fostering parity in a tactical stalemate that satisfied pre-game equilibria.

Elfsborg vs AIK preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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