AZ vs FC Twente Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
AFAS Stadion Sun, 3 May - 2:45 PM
Eredivisie
AZ AZ
2 – 2
FC Twente TWE
Full Time Sun, 3 May 2:45 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Peer Koopmeiners - 90+5'
Jordy Clasie - 13'
Goal
|
Goal
Sam Lammers - 55'
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro - 32' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

AZ Alkmaar and FC Twente played out a 2-2 draw in the Eredivisie, with the halftime score locked at 1-1. AZ controlled possession at 58% to FC Twente's 42%, yet FC Twente was assessed as the stronger team pre-match. No red cards disrupted play, and no second-half tactical adjustments were noted. The result marked a significant structural deviation of 75.5% attributed to FC Twente, diverging from pre-match market expectations that positioned AZ as slight favorites with higher win probability. Efficiency metrics aligned with standard levels, though xG data for both teams remained unavailable, preventing detailed chance quality assessment. The even scoreline at both intervals reflected a balanced contest where possession dominance failed to yield a home victory, underscoring FC Twente's defensive solidity.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed significant 75.5% structural deviation favoring FC Twente.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No events like adjustments or reds impacted match structure.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. van der Eijk

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Bluemink

1st Assistant

S. de Groot

2nd Assistant

E. Blank

4th Official

AZ L. Echteld
L. Echteld
VS
FC Twente J. van den Brom
J. van den Brom
1.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.95
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 66 D
SC Heerenveen Rank: 70 W
Fortuna Sittard Rank: 61 W
FC Groningen Rank: 66 L
Heracles Almelo Rank: 55 W
PSV Rank: 86 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
NEC Nijmegen Rank: 74 D
FC Volendam Rank: 59 W
Ajax Rank: 77 W
Fortuna Sittard Rank: 61 W
FC Utrecht Rank: 71 L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 67 W
19
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
19 - 8 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AZ
41.89%
Draw
24.46%
Away FC Twente
33.66%

Movement

Changes since opening
AZ
+41.51%
Draw
+17.08%
FC Twente
-58.58%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.6
76.12
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AZ
FC Twente
Power Score
75.6
76.12
League Position
6
5
Global Rank
105
98

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AZ — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Twente — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AZ FC Twente

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AZ

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Twente

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AZ ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Twente
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.86
26.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.67
35.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AZ +0.97 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Twente -0.97 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AZ
FC Twente
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AZ ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Twente
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AZ FC Twente
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AZ FC Twente
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
AZ
FC Twente
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
AZ
vs
FC Twente
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
AZ FC Twente
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
AZ 0.32
FC Twente 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
AZ FC Twente
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
AZ 0.05
FC Twente 0.04
AZ
FC Twente
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AZ had peak pressure around 85'.
  • AZ started the game with stronger pressure.
AZ Pressure TWE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AZ reached the top pressure at 85' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 42 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AZ AZ Home
42 matches
FC Twente TWE Away
Match Record
19
Wins
15
8
Draws
8
15
Losses
19
Goals
65
Goals Scored
57
57
Goals Conceded
65
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:04:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
R. Owusu-Oduro
Netherlands
1 R. Owusu-Oduro
E. Dijkstra
Netherlands
22 E. Dijkstra
W. Goes
Netherlands
3 W. Goes
A. Penetra Correia
Substitution
Portugal
5 A. Penetra Correia
M. De Wit
Netherlands
34 M. De Wit
K. Smit
Netherlands
26 K. Smit
J. Clasie
Substitution
Netherlands
8 J. Clasie
I. Jensen
Substitution
Denmark
17 I. Jensen
S. Mijnans
Netherlands
10 S. Mijnans
R. Daal
Substitution
Netherlands
27 R. Daal
T. Parrott
Republic of Ireland
9 T. Parrott
Pitch
L. Unnerstall
Germany
1 L. Unnerstall
M. Rots
Netherlands
39 M. Rots
R. Nijstad
Netherlands
43 R. Nijstad
S. Lemkin
Israel
23 S. Lemkin
B. van Rooij
Netherlands
28 B. van Rooij
T. van den Belt
Substitution
Netherlands
20 T. van den Belt
R. Zerrouki
Algeria
6 R. Zerrouki
S. Ørjasæter
Substitution
Norway
27 S. Ørjasæter
K. Hlynsson
Substitution
Iceland
14 K. Hlynsson
D. Rots
Substitution
Netherlands
11 D. Rots
S. Lammers
Substitution
Netherlands
10 S. Lammers

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 02:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
AFAS Stadion
Capacity :
19500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Sander van der Eijk
Rens Bluemink
Stefan de Groot
Erwin Blank

Statistics

Possession
AZ
56%
TWE
44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 6
56 Dangerous attacks 44
58 Possession 42
4 Corners 3
14 Free kicks 9

Match Overview

22 Dribble Attempts 13
17 Throwins 23
14 Successful Headers 11
100 Ball Safe 99
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
7 Goal Kicks 8
9 Successful Dribbles 5
10 Goal Attempts 6
1 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

106 Attacks 100
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

31 Successful Long Passes 34
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
462 Successful Passes 304
84 Successful Passes Percentage 78
549 Passes 388
69 Long Passes 62
12 Key Passes 6

Defensive

9 Interceptions 8
17 Tackles 23
53 Duels Won 47
2 Saves 1

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 13
5 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

9 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Sander van der Eijk

Starting XI ▼

1
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro Goalkeeper
6.81
3
Wouter Goes
Wouter Goes Defender
6.86
5
Alexandre Penetra
Alexandre Penetra Defender
6.93
35
Mexx Meerdink
Mexx Meerdink
Attacker80'
6.86
22
Elijah Dijkstra
Elijah Dijkstra Defender
6.6
34
Mees de Wit
Mees de Wit Defender
6.84
8
Jordy Clasie
Jordy Clasie Midfielder
6.87
6
Peer Koopmeiners
Peer Koopmeiners
Midfielder60'
6.87
10
Sven Mijnans
Sven Mijnans Midfielder
7.27
17
Isak Jensen
Isak Jensen Midfielder
6.91
7
Weslley Patati
Weslley Patati
Attacker69'
6.91
26
Kees Smit
Kees Smit Midfielder
7
27
Ro-Zangelo Daal
Ro-Zangelo Daal Midfielder
6.84
45
Bendegúz Kovács
Bendegúz Kovács
Attacker80'
6.49
9
Troy Parrott
Troy Parrott Attacker
7.19
Referee : Sander van der Eijk

Starting XI ▼

1
Lars Unnerstall
Lars Unnerstall Goalkeeper
6.78
23
Stav Lemkin
Stav Lemkin Defender
6.86
28
Bart van Rooij
Bart van Rooij Defender
7.23
39
Mats Rots
Mats Rots Defender
6.96
43
Ruud Nijstad
Ruud Nijstad Defender
6.82
6
Ramiz Zerrouki
Ramiz Zerrouki Midfielder
7.13
11
Daan Rots
Daan Rots Midfielder
7.04
32
Arno Verschueren
Arno Verschueren
Midfielder71'
6.65
14
Kristian Hlynsson
Kristian Hlynsson Midfielder
7.04
3
Robin Pröpper
Robin Pröpper
Defender83'
6.96
20
Thomas van den Belt
Thomas van den Belt Midfielder
6.95
4
Mathias Kjølø
Mathias Kjølø
Midfielder71'
6.57
27
Sondre Ørjasæter
Sondre Ørjasæter Midfielder
7.05
7
Marko Pjaca
Marko Pjaca
Attacker79'
6.79
10
Sam Lammers
Sam Lammers Attacker
7.11
9
Ricky van Wolfswinkel
Ricky van Wolfswinkel
Attacker79'
6.88

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Peer Koopmeiners
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+5'
83'
Event
Robin Pröpper → Kristian Hlynsson
9th Substitution
Event
Bendegúz Kovács → Ro-Zangelo Daal
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Mexx Meerdink → Alexandre Penetra
8th Substitution
80'
79'
Event
Marko Pjaca → Sondre Ørjasæter
5th Substitution
79'
Event
Ricky van Wolfswinkel → Sam Lammers
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Mathias Kjølø → Thomas van den Belt
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Arno Verschueren → Daan Rots
4th Substitution
Event
Weslley Patati → Isak Jensen
2nd Substitution
69'
Event
Peer Koopmeiners → Jordy Clasie
1st Substitution
60'
55'
Event
Sam Lammers
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
32'
Event
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
Event
Jordy Clasie
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
13'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Peer Koopmeiners with his right foot results in a goal.
87
Attempt Attempt
Ramiz Zerrouki takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Attempt Attempt
Troy Parrott takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Patati Weslley takes a left-footed shot but misses.
83
Substitution Substitution
Robin Propper is substituted for Kristian Hlynsson.
81
Attempt Attempt
Mees de Wit takes a left-footed shot but misses.
80
Update Update
Mexx Meerdink is on, and Alexandre Penetra is off.
80
Substitution Substitution
Bendeguz Kovacs is substituted for Ro-Zangelo Daal.
79
Update Update
Ricky van Wolfswinkel comes on for Sam Lammers.
79
Update Update
Marko Pjaca is on, and Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter is off.
71
Update Update
Mathias Ullereng Kjolo replaces Thomas Van Den Belt.
71
Update Update
Arno Verschueren is on, and Daan Rots is off.
69
Attempt Attempt
Troy Parrott attempts a header but misses the shot.
69
Update Update
Weslley replaces Isak Jensen.
67
Attempt Attempt
Alexandre Penetra attempts a header but misses the shot.
66
Attempt Attempt
Kees Smit's right-footed shot is blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
Mees de Wit takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Alexandre Penetra takes a right-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Hlynsson takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
63
Attempt Attempt
Alexandre Penetra takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Sam Lammers has a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
61
Attempt Attempt
Ro-Zangelo Daal's right-footed shot is blocked.
61
Attempt Attempt
Kees Smit's right-footed shot is saved.
60
Update Update
Peer Koopmeiners replaces Jordy Clasie.
55
Attempt Attempt
Sam Lammers takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
53
Attempt Attempt
Bart van Rooij takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Bart van Rooij takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Troy Parrott takes a left-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Sam Lammers takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Jordy Clasie takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
32
Update Update
Goal! Sam Lammers scores, bringing the match to 1-1.
32
Update Update
Goal! An own goal by Jayden Owusu-Oduro levels the score at 1-1.
31
Attempt Attempt
Troy Parrott's left-footed shot is saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Alexandre Penetra takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Sam Lammers takes a left-footed shot but misses.
17
Attempt Attempt
Jordy Clasie has a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Jordy Clasie takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
8
Attempt Attempt
Ramiz Zerrouki takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw encapsulated FC Twente's strength, earning a point despite AZ's possession edge and pre-match favoritism. Significant 75.5% structural deviation highlighted FC Twente's outperformance relative to expectations. With efficiencies in line and no red cards or adjustments, the game maintained structural integrity. Lack of xG data limits shot efficiency insights, but halftime parity at 1-1 set a level tone carried through. AZ's control yielded goals but not victory, affirming FC Twente's resilience in a fair contest.

AZ vs FC Twente preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Eredivisie, Netherlands View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ