Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadion im Borussia-Park Sun, 3 May - 3:30 PM
Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach BMG
1 Winner 0
Borussia Dortmund BVB
Full Time Sun, 3 May 3:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Haris Tabakovic - 88'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Borussia Mönchengladbach secured a surprising 1-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund in a tightly contested Bundesliga match. The game remained goalless at halftime with the score 0-0, reflecting the even battle unfolding on the pitch. Mönchengladbach held a slight edge in possession at 51% compared to Dortmund's 49%, demonstrating disciplined defending and clinical finishing to claim the win. Despite Dortmund entering as the stronger team on paper, Gladbach capitalized on limited opportunities, showcasing resilience in a low-scoring affair. No red cards were issued, and there were no notable second-half tactical adjustments reported. This result marked a significant deviation from pre-match structural expectations, with Mönchengladbach outperforming projections by 74.5%. The absence of xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis, but the hosts' efficiency stayed in line with norms.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match showed a significant 74.5% structural deviation in favor of Borussia Mönchengladbach.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiencies remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome did not align with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the game's flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Badstübner

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Hüwe

1st Assistant

M. Stegemann

2nd Assistant

F. Prigan

4th Official

Borussia Mönchengladbach E. Polanski
E. Polanski
VS
Borussia Dortmund N. Kovač
N. Kovač
1.18
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.14
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 74 D
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 80 D
RB Leipzig Rank: 86 L
Heidenheim Rank: 72 D
FC Köln Rank: 75 D
St. Pauli Rank: 72 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 W
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 83 L
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 90 L
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 86 W
Hamburger SV Rank: 76 W
FC Augsburg Rank: 78 W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 4 - 26
26

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Borussia Mönchengladbach
25.52%
Draw
25.03%
Away Borussia Dortmund
49.44%

Movement

Changes since opening
Borussia Mönchengladbach
-68.64%
Draw
+19.38%
Borussia Dortmund
+49.25%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76.87
89.43
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Borussia Dortmund
Power Score
76.87
89.43
League Position
11
2
Global Rank
90
14

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Borussia Mönchengladbach — Opponent-weighted form score
Borussia Dortmund — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Dortmund

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Borussia Dortmund

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Borussia Mönchengladbach ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Borussia Dortmund
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.35
14.59
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.59
27.35
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.12 Efficiency Index
vs
Borussia Dortmund -1.12 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Borussia Dortmund
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Borussia Mönchengladbach ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Borussia Dortmund
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Dortmund
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Dortmund
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Borussia Dortmund
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Borussia Mönchengladbach
vs
Borussia Dortmund
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Dortmund
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.31
Borussia Dortmund 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Dortmund
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.00
Borussia Dortmund 0.03
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Borussia Dortmund
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BMG had peak pressure around 33'.
  • BMG started the game with stronger pressure.
BMG Pressure BVB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BMG reached the top pressure at 33' (76.20).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Borussia Mönchengladbach BMG Home
39 matches
Borussia Dortmund BVB Away
Match Record
9
Wins
26
4
Draws
4
26
Losses
9
Goals
41
Goals Scored
85
85
Goals Conceded
41
-44
Goal Difference
+44

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:05:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Nicolas
Germany
33 M. Nicolas
F. Honorat
France
9 F. Honorat
P. Sander
Germany
16 P. Sander
N. Elvedi
Switzerland
30 N. Elvedi
F. Cristian Chiarodia
Substitution
Italy
2 F. Cristian Chiarodia
J. Scally
United States
29 J. Scally
R. Reitz
Substitution
Germany
27 R. Reitz
Y. Engelhardt
Germany
6 Y. Engelhardt
K. Stöger
Substitution
Austria
7 K. Stöger
W. Mohya
Substitution
Germany
36 W. Mohya
H. Tabakovic
Substitution
Switzerland
15 H. Tabakovic
Pitch
G. Kobel
Switzerland
1 G. Kobel
N. Schlotterbeck
Germany
4 N. Schlotterbeck
W. Anton
Germany
3 W. Anton
L. Reggiani
Italy
49 L. Reggiani
M. Beier
Substitution
Germany
14 M. Beier
J. Bellingham
Substitution
England
7 J. Bellingham
M. Sabitzer
Austria
20 M. Sabitzer
J. Ryerson
Substitution
Norway
26 J. Ryerson
S. Inacio
Italy
40 S. Inacio
J. Brandt
Substitution
Germany
10 J. Brandt
S. Guirassy
Substitution
Guinea
9 S. Guirassy

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion im Borussia-Park
Capacity :
54057
Attendance :
54042
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Philipp Hüwe
Mitja Stegemann
Felix Prigan
Florian Badstübner

Statistics

Possession
BMG
50%
BVB
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 5
39 Dangerous attacks 23
51 Possession 49
1 Corners 1
17 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

10 Goal Attempts 6
95 Ball Safe 87
12 Dribble Attempts 12
22 Throwins 17
58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 83
7 Successful Dribbles 10
7 Successful Headers 13
6 Goal Kicks 10
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0

Attacking

69 Attacks 106
4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

18 Successful Long Passes 23
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
83 Successful Passes Percentage 85
44 Long Passes 53
417 Successful Passes 415
501 Passes 489
9 Key Passes 5

Defensive

8 Interceptions 11
17 Tackles 12
47 Duels Won 49
1 Saves 3

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 10
6 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

14 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Florian Badstübner

Starting XI ▼

33
Moritz Nicolas
Moritz Nicolas Goalkeeper
7.13
2
Fabio Chiarodia
Fabio Chiarodia Defender
6.58
4
Kevin Diks
Kevin Diks
Defender70'
6.94
9
Franck Honorat
Franck Honorat Defender
6.85
16
Philipp Sander
Philipp Sander Defender
6.93
29
Joe Scally
Joe Scally Defender
6.68
30
Nico Elvedi
Nico Elvedi Defender
6.96
6
Yannik Engelhardt
Yannik Engelhardt Midfielder
6.8
7
Kevin Stöger
Kevin Stöger Midfielder
6.76
13
Giovanni Reyna
Giovanni Reyna
Midfielder70'
6.6
27
Rocco Reitz
Rocco Reitz Midfielder
6.91
25
Robin Hack
Robin Hack
Midfielder90+1'
6.78
36
Wael Mohya
Wael Mohya Midfielder
6.66
38
Hugo Bolin
Hugo Bolin
Midfielder65'
6.68
15
Haris Tabakovic
Haris Tabakovic Attacker
6.92
18
Shuto Machino
Shuto Machino
Attacker90+1'
6.69
Referee : Florian Badstübner

Starting XI ▼

1
Gregor Kobel
Gregor Kobel Goalkeeper
6.87
3
Waldemar Anton
Waldemar Anton Defender
7.08
4
Nico Schlotterbeck
Nico Schlotterbeck Defender
7.31
49
Luca Reggiani
Luca Reggiani Defender
6.81
7
Jobe Bellingham
Jobe Bellingham Midfielder
6.75
6
Salih Özcan
Salih Özcan
Midfielder76'
6.63
14
Maximilian Beier
Maximilian Beier Midfielder
6.89
24
Daniel Svensson
Daniel Svensson
Defender61'
6.83
20
Marcel Sabitzer
Marcel Sabitzer Midfielder
6.87
26
Julian Ryerson
Julian Ryerson Midfielder
7.01
2
Yan Couto
Yan Couto
Defender84'
6.88
9
Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy Attacker
7.01
21
Fábio Silva
Fábio Silva
Attacker76'
6.74
10
Julian Brandt
Julian Brandt Attacker
7.07
17
Carney Chukwuemeka
Carney Chukwuemeka
Midfielder84'
6.67
40
Samuele Inácio
Samuele Inácio Attacker
6.69

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Robin Hack → Rocco Reitz
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Shuto Machino → Haris Tabakovic
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Haris Tabakovic
4th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Haris Tabakovic
Goal awarded
90'
Event
Haris Tabakovic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
88'
Event
Nico Elvedi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
87'
84'
Event
Carney Chukwuemeka → Julian Brandt
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Yan Couto → Julian Ryerson
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Salih Özcan → Jobe Bellingham
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Fábio Silva → Serhou Guirassy
6th Substitution
Event
Kevin Diks → Fabio Chiarodia
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Giovanni Reyna → Kevin Stöger
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Hugo Bolin → Wael Mohya
2nd Substitution
65'
61'
Event
Daniel Svensson → Maximilian Beier
1st Substitution
56'
Event
Nico Schlotterbeck
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Kevin Stöger
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
54'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Shuto Machino replaces Haris Tabakovic.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Haris Tabakovic receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
VAR decision confirms the goal for Haris Tabakovic.
90
Update Update
Robin Hack is on, and Rocco Reitz is off.
88
Attempt Attempt
Waldemar Anton attempts a header but misses the shot.
88
Attempt Attempt
Haris Tabakovic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nico Elvedi receives a yellow card.
85
Attempt Attempt
Rocco Reitz takes a left-footed shot but misses.
84
Update Update
Carney Chukwuemeka replaces Julian Brandt.
84
Update Update
Yan Bueno Couto is on, and Julian Ryerson is off.
81
Attempt Attempt
Yannik Engelhardt takes a right-footed shot but misses.
79
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Silva takes a right-footed shot but misses.
78
Attempt Attempt
Rocco Reitz's right-footed shot is blocked.
76
Update Update
Salih Ozcan comes on for Jobe Bellingham.
76
Update Update
Fabio Silva comes on for Sehrou Guirassy.
76
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Sabitzer takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Samuele Inacio takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Substitution Substitution
Kevin Diks is substituted for Fabio Chiarodia.
70
Update Update
Giovanni Reyna comes on for Kevin Stoger.
66
Update Update
Hugo Bolin comes on for Wael Mohya.
61
Update Update
Daniel Svensson is on, and Maximilian Beier is off.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nico Schlotterbeck receives a yellow card.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kevin Stoger receives a yellow card.
53
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Stoger's left-footed shot is saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Julian Brandt takes a left-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Haris Tabakovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Samuele Inacio takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Yannik Engelhardt's header shot misses the target.
32
Attempt Attempt
Haris Tabakovic's right-footed shot is saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Yannik Engelhardt's header shot misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Joseph Scally takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Stoger takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
7
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Stoger takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Borussia Mönchengladbach's 1-0 triumph over Borussia Dortmund underscores their defensive solidity and opportunistic play, overturning expectations for the stronger visitors. With even possession and a clean halftime sheet, the hosts proved that fine margins decide derbies. This significant structural deviation highlights Gladbach's ability to exceed projections without relying on superior chances, as efficiencies held steady. Lacking xG insights, the result emphasizes tactical discipline over dominance. For Dortmund, it's a reminder of vulnerability against compact defenses. Mönchengladbach gains crucial points in the standings, boosting morale ahead of future fixtures.

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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