AGF vs Sønderjyske Fodbold Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Vejlby Stadion Sun, 3 May - 4:00 PM
Superliga
AGF AGF
2 Winner 1
Sønderjyske Fodbold SON
Full Time Sun, 3 May 4:00 PM
Round 8 Championship Round
M. Soulas - 90+4' (Own Goal)
Tobias Bech - 52'
Goal
|
Goal
O. Hyseni - 81'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. AGF 2–1 Sønderjyske Fodbold. The result saw AGF take the points. AGF showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 62%–38%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AGF's 2-1 win showed a significant 29.5% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: No xG data available to evaluate expectations.
  • Event impact: No notable events or second-half adjustments altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Karlsen

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Skytte

1st Assistant

O. Kronlykke

2nd Assistant

F. Svendsen

4th Official

AGF J. Poulsen
J. Poulsen
VS
Sønderjyske Fodbold T. Nørgaard
T. Nørgaard
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.47
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Midtjylland Rank: 79 D
Nordsjælland Rank: 67 D
FC Midtjylland Rank: 78 L
Nordsjælland Rank: 66 D
Viborg FF Rank: 64 W
Brøndby IF Rank: 65 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brøndby IF Rank: 66 W
FC Midtjylland Rank: 79 L
Brøndby IF Rank: 64 L
Viborg FF Rank: 63 L
FC Midtjylland Rank: 80 D
Nordsjælland Rank: 67 L
19
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
19 - 13 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AGF
70.51%
Draw
17.72%
Away Sønderjyske Fodbold
11.77%

Movement

Changes since opening
AGF
-25.1%
Draw
+13.52%
Sønderjyske Fodbold
+11.58%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.13
61.16
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AGF
Sønderjyske Fodbold
Power Score
71.13
61.16
League Position
1
6
Global Rank
181
447

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AGF — Opponent-weighted form score
Sønderjyske Fodbold — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AGF Sønderjyske Fodbold

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AGF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sønderjyske Fodbold

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AGF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sønderjyske Fodbold
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.18
33.42
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.42
37.18
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AGF +0.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Sønderjyske Fodbold -0.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AGF
Sønderjyske Fodbold
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AGF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sønderjyske Fodbold
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AGF Sønderjyske Fodbold
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AGF Sønderjyske Fodbold
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
AGF
Sønderjyske Fodbold
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
AGF
vs
Sønderjyske Fodbold
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
AGF Sønderjyske Fodbold
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
AGF 0.23
Sønderjyske Fodbold 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
AGF Sønderjyske Fodbold
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
AGF 0.03
Sønderjyske Fodbold 0.02
AGF
Sønderjyske Fodbold
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AGF had peak pressure around 54'.
  • AGF started the game with stronger pressure.
AGF Pressure SON Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AGF reached the top pressure at 54' (93.53).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 44 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AGF AGF Home
44 matches
Sønderjyske Fodbold SON Away
Match Record
19
Wins
12
13
Draws
13
12
Losses
19
Goals
66
Goals Scored
51
51
Goals Conceded
66
+15
Goal Difference
-15

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:05:44+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Hansen
Denmark
1 J. Hansen
F. Beijmo
Sweden
2 F. Beijmo
H. Dalsgaard
Denmark
3 H. Dalsgaard
E. Kahl
Sweden
19 E. Kahl
J. Andersen
Substitution
Denmark
26 J. Andersen
M. Knudsen
Substitution
Norway
4 M. Knudsen
K. Yakob
Substitution
Iraq
17 K. Yakob
G. Links
Substitution
South Africa
11 G. Links
T. Kristensen
Denmark
31 T. Kristensen
K. Malt Arnstad
Substitution
Norway
10 K. Malt Arnstad
P. Mortensen
Denmark
9 P. Mortensen
Pitch
N. Flø
Denmark
1 N. Flø
C. Duru
Substitution
Nigeria
23 C. Duru
M. Soulas
France
12 M. Soulas
M. Jensen
Denmark
5 M. Jensen
S. Sylvest Wæver
Substitution
Denmark
3 S. Sylvest Wæver
A. Oggesen
Substitution
Denmark
22 A. Oggesen
R. Vinderslev
Denmark
6 R. Vinderslev
O. Hyseni
Denmark
24 O. Hyseni
S. Haidara
31 S. Haidara
S. Emini
Substitution
Macedonia
7 S. Emini
M. Hoppe
Substitution
United States
9 M. Hoppe

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 8 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Vejlby Stadion
Capacity :
11500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Victor Skytte
Ole Kronlykke
Jacob Karlsen
Frederik Svendsen

Statistics

Possession
AGF
60%
SON
40%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 4
81 Dangerous attacks 34
62 Possession 38
9 Corners 5
11 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

91 Ball Safe 76
13 Goal Attempts 10
14 Dribble Attempts 16
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
26 Throwins 11
6 Successful Dribbles 7
6 Goal Kicks 13
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 1

Attacking

136 Attacks 63
3 Counter Attacks 2
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

528 Passes 327
15 Successful Long Passes 18
32 Long Passes 43
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
90 Successful Passes Percentage 80
473 Successful Passes 260
15 Key Passes 8

Defensive

10 Tackles 19
6 Saves 7
31 Duels Won 47
3 Interceptions 10

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 2
32 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

9 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Jacob Karlsen

Starting XI ▼

1
Jesper Hansen
Jesper Hansen Goalkeeper
6.92
2
Felix Beijmo
Felix Beijmo Defender
7.23
3
Henrik Dalsgaard
Henrik Dalsgaard Defender
6.83
19
Eric Kahl
Eric Kahl Defender
6.95
4
Magnus Knudsen
Magnus Knudsen Midfielder
7
13
Janni Serra
Janni Serra
Attacker87'
6.7
11
Gift Links
Gift Links Midfielder
7.35
57
James Bogere
James Bogere
Attacker88'
6.43
17
Kevin Yakob
Kevin Yakob Midfielder
6.84
6
Nicolai Poulsen
Nicolai Poulsen
Midfielder70'
6.85
26
Jacob Andersen
Jacob Andersen Midfielder
6.63
39
Frederik Emmery
Frederik Emmery
Attacker46'
6.75
9
Patrick Mortensen
Patrick Mortensen Attacker
6.77
10
Kristian Arnstad
Kristian Arnstad Attacker
7.26
8
Sebastian Jørgensen
Sebastian Jørgensen
Midfielder78'
6.7
31
Tobias Bech
Tobias Bech Attacker
7.21
Referee : Jacob Karlsen

Starting XI ▼

1
N. Flø
N. Flø Goalkeeper
6.54
3
S. Wæver
S. Wæver Defender
6.58
28
A. Pedersen
A. Pedersen
Midfielder46'
6.44
5
M. Jensen
M. Jensen Defender
7.03
12
M. Soulas
M. Soulas Defender
7.05
23
E. Duru
E. Duru Defender
6.48
19
Pachanga Cassoma Kristensen
Pachanga Cassoma Kristensen
Defender82'
6.38
6
R. Vinderslev
R. Vinderslev Midfielder
6.7
7
S. Emini
S. Emini Midfielder
6.66
11
A. Lyng
A. Lyng
Attacker68'
6.73
22
A. Oggesen
A. Oggesen Midfielder
6.81
20
T. Klysner
T. Klysner
Attacker78'
6.59
24
O. Hyseni
O. Hyseni Midfielder
6.77
31
M. Haidara
M. Haidara Midfielder
6.69
9
M. Hoppe
M. Hoppe Attacker
6.77
15
Lirim Qamili
Lirim Qamili
Attacker68'
6.69

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
James Bogere
2nd Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
M. Soulas
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
90+4'
Event
James Bogere → Gift Links
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Janni Serra → Magnus Knudsen
9th Substitution
87'
82'
Event
Pachanga Cassoma Kristensen → E. Duru
8th Substitution
81'
Event
O. Hyseni
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Sebastian Jørgensen → Kristian Arnstad
6th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
T. Klysner → A. Oggesen
7th Substitution
Event
Nicolai Poulsen → Kevin Yakob
5th Substitution
70'
68'
Event
A. Lyng → S. Emini
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Lirim Qamili → M. Hoppe
4th Substitution
Event
Gift Links
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
54'
Event
Tobias Bech
Header / 1st Goal
52'
Event
Frederik Emmery → Jacob Andersen
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
A. Pedersen → S. Wæver
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Bech takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Update Update
Goal! James Bogere scores, making it 2-1.
90
Attempt Attempt
James Bogere takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Haidara Mohamed Cherif takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Olti Hyseni's right-footed shot is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Olti Hyseni takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Update Update
Own goal! Maxime Henry Armand Soulas scores, making it 2-1.
88
Substitution Substitution
James Bogere is substituted off for Gift Links.
87
Update Update
Janni Serra is on, and Magnus Knudsen is off.
82
Update Update
Kristensen comes on for Duru.
81
Update Update
Goal! Olti Hyseni scores, making it 1-1.
81
Attempt Attempt
Olti Hyseni scores with a left-footed shot.
80
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Lyng takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
78
Update Update
Tobias Klysner replaces Andreas Oggesen.
78
Update Update
Sebastian Jorgensen replaces Kristian Malt Arnstad.
77
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Mortensen takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
73
Attempt Attempt
Lirim Qamili takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
70
Update Update
Nicolai Poulsen replaces Kevin Yakob.
69
Attempt Attempt
Lirim Qamili attempts a header but misses the shot.
68
Update Update
Lirim Qamili comes on for Matthew Hoppe.
68
Substitution Substitution
Alexander Lyng is substituted for Sefer Emini.
66
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Bech takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
64
Attempt Attempt
Olti Hyseni takes a right-footed shot but misses.
59
Attempt Attempt
Sefer Emini takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Update Update
Patrick Mortensen takes a header, but it misses the target.
56
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Bech takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Gift Links takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gift Links receives a yellow card.
52
Update Update
Goal! Tobias Bech scores to make it 1-0.
52
Update Update
Tobias Bech scores with a header.
49
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Yakob takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Yakob took a shot with his head, but it was saved.
47
Attempt Attempt
Gift Links takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Update Update
Anders Pedersen replaces Simon Waever.
46
Update Update
Anders Pedersen replaces Simon Waever.
44
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Yakob takes a right-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Matthew Hoppe takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Matthew Hoppe takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Malt Arnstad takes a left-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Mortensen's left-footed shot is blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Haidara Mohamed Cherif takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Andersen takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
10
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Malt Arnstad takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
7
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Malt Arnstad takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
5
Attempt Attempt
Eric Kahl takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
2
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Malt Arnstad takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

AGF's 2-1 triumph over Sønderjyske Fodbold validates their status as the stronger side, driven by 62% possession and second-half efficiency. The goalless first half gave way to decisive scoring, with AGF's two goals outweighing Sønderjyske's reply despite the visitors' lower possession. Without red cards or major disruptions, the result reflected underlying team strengths and a 29.5% structural deviation favoring the hosts. Market alignment confirms the predictability of AGF's edge, while absent xG data limits deeper chance quality insights. This performance reinforces AGF's campaign momentum, exposing Sønderjyske's need for better conversion under pressure.

AGF vs Sønderjyske Fodbold preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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