Hajduk Split vs Varaždin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Poljud Sun, 3 May - 4:45 PM
1. HNL
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split
Versus
Varaždin Varaždin
KICKOFF : Sun, 3 May - 4:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

Hajduk Split vs Varaždin preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Hajduk Split host Varaždin in 1. HNL (Regular Season) at Stadion Poljud. Domestically, Hajduk Split sit 2th in the table while Varaždin are 3th. Power ranking favours Hajduk Split by 5.6 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Hajduk Split possesses a 5.6-point power advantage, scoring 71.64 against Varaždin's 66.02.
  • Form: Form metrics show minimal separation, with Hajduk at 21.94 and Varaždin at 21.83.
  • Squad: Hajduk occupies 2nd in the league table, one spot ahead of 3rd-placed Varaždin.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition performance details are not provided in current metrics.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece stats rely on low-confidence proxy data with no xG available.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable due to add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Hajduk Split 60.7% (Δ-0.1%) | Draw 24% (Δ+-0%) | Varaždin 15.3% (Δ+0.1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
VS
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.55
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka Rank: 69 D
Osijek Rank: 63 L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 D
Gorica Rank: 62 W
Istra 1961 Rank: 65 W
Vukovar Rank: 55 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 L
Rijeka Rank: 70 W
Osijek Rank: 63 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 63 W
Gorica Rank: 62 D
Istra 1961 Rank: 62 L
26
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 6 - 9
9
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hajduk Split
60.7%
Draw
24.04%
Away Varaždin
15.25%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hajduk Split
-0.08%
Draw
-0.04%
Varaždin
+0.11%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.64
66.02
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hajduk Split
Varaždin
Power Score
71.64
66.02
League Position
2
3
Global Rank
159
298

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hajduk Split Varaždin

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hajduk Split Hajduk Split Home
41 matches
Varaždin Varaždin Away
Match Record
26
Wins
9
6
Draws
6
9
Losses
26
Goals
72
Goals Scored
36
36
Goals Conceded
72
+36
Goal Difference
-36
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-01T00:58:07+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
T. Silić
33 T. Silić
?. Hrgović
32 ?. Hrgović
Z. Šarlija
31 Z. Šarlija
D. Maresic
15 D. Maresic
D. Melnjak
17 D. Melnjak
A. Pajaziti
4 A. Pajaziti
N. Sigur
8 N. Sigur
R. Brajković
28 R. Brajković
R. Pukstas
21 R. Pukstas
M. Šego
11 M. Šego
M. Livaja
10 M. Livaja
J. Silić
33 J. Silić
N. Tepšić
16 N. Tepšić
M. Barać
44 M. Barać
S. Lesjak
2 S. Lesjak
A. Boršić
25 A. Boršić
M. Marina
24 M. Marina
T. Duvnjak
8 T. Duvnjak
F. Maglica
23 F. Maglica
A. Latković
10 A. Latković
M. Vuk
7 M. Vuk
I. Mamut
17 I. Mamut

General Information

Date & Time
May 03, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Poljud
Capacity
34198
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

33
Toni Silic
Toni Silic Goalkeeper
6.88
10
Marko Livaja
Marko Livaja Centre Forward
7.12
4
Adrion Pajaziti
Adrion Pajaziti Defensive Midfield
6.87
17
Dario Melnjak
Dario Melnjak Left Back
6.83
8
Niko Sigur
Niko Sigur Defensive Midfield
6.99
11
Michele Sego
Michele Sego Left Wing
7.01
28
Roko Brajkovic
Roko Brajkovic Right Wing
6.9
31
Zvonimir Sarlija
Zvonimir Sarlija Right Back
6.95
32
Simun Hrgovic
Simun Hrgovic Right Back
6.77
15
Dario Maresic
Dario Maresic Left Back
6.98
21
Rokas Pukstas
Rokas Pukstas Attacking Midfield
7.3

Starting XI ▼

33
Josip Silic
Josip Silic Goalkeeper
6.94
7
Matej Vuk
Matej Vuk Midfielder
6.81
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Aleksa Latkovic Midfielder
7.11
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Midfielder
6.83
25
Antonio Borsic
Antonio Borsic Midfielder
6.6
17
Ivan Mamut
Ivan Mamut Centre Forward
7.01
2
Sven Lesjak
Sven Lesjak Right Back
6.96
8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Tomislav Duvnjak Central Midfield
6.79
16
Novak Tepsic
Novak Tepsic Left Back
6.71
24
Mario Marina
Mario Marina Central Midfield
6.72
44
Mateo Barac
Mateo Barac Centre Back
6.65

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Hajduk Split holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Hajduk Split a 5.6-point edge. External projection is Hajduk Split 62.6%, draw 23.3%, and Varaždin 14%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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