Akhmat Grozny vs FK Nizjni Novgorod Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Akhmat Arena Sun, 3 May - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Akhmat Grozny AKH
2 Winner 0
FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod
Full Time Sun, 3 May 4:30 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Egas Cacintura - 60'
Lechi Sadulaev - 55'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Akhmat Grozny claimed a 2-0 home win against FK Nizjni Novgorod in the Russian Premier League, overcoming 43% possession to dominate proceedings. The first half ended 0-0, with both sides cautious, but Akhmat struck twice after the break to seal victory. As the stronger team, they showcased clinical finishing despite Nizjni's higher ball control at 57%. This result highlighted Akhmat's ability to deviate significantly from structural norms, maintaining efficiency in line with expectations. No red cards disrupted play, allowing the match to flow naturally without major events altering momentum. Akhmat's triumph reinforces their solid home form, turning limited opportunities into a clean-sheet success against a resilient opponent.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Akhmat Grozny displayed significant structural deviation with 100% deviation percentage in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment remained undetermined due to unavailable match data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated owing to missing statistics.
  • Event impact: No key events notably influenced the final scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards occurred, resulting in no distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Cheban

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Anopa

4th Official

M. Gavrilin

1st Assistant

D. Petrov

2nd Assistant

Akhmat Grozny S. Cherchesov
S. Cherchesov
VS
FK Nizjni Novgorod V. Garanin
V. Garanin
1.23
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zenit Rank: 79 L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 66 D
Spartak Moskva Rank: 72 L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 55 D
Krasnodar Rank: 78 L
Rostov Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spartak Moskva Rank: 72 L
Orenburg Rank: 52 L
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 70 D
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 66 D
Rostov Rank: 60 L
Krasnodar Rank: 78 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 0 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Akhmat Grozny
0%
Draw
0%
Away FK Nizjni Novgorod
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.91
50.84
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Akhmat Grozny
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Power Score
59.91
50.84
League Position
9
15
Global Rank
485
760

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Akhmat Grozny — Opponent-weighted form score
FK Nizjni Novgorod — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Akhmat Grozny FK Nizjni Novgorod

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Akhmat Grozny

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FK Nizjni Novgorod

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Akhmat Grozny ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FK Nizjni Novgorod
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.79
27.81
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.81
42.79
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Akhmat Grozny +1.73 Efficiency Index
vs
FK Nizjni Novgorod -1.73 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Akhmat Grozny
FK Nizjni Novgorod
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Akhmat Grozny ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FK Nizjni Novgorod
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Akhmat Grozny FK Nizjni Novgorod
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Akhmat Grozny FK Nizjni Novgorod
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Akhmat Grozny
FK Nizjni Novgorod
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Akhmat Grozny
vs
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Akhmat Grozny FK Nizjni Novgorod
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Akhmat Grozny 0.33
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Akhmat Grozny FK Nizjni Novgorod
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Akhmat Grozny 0.00
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.04
Akhmat Grozny
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FK Nizjni Novgorod had peak pressure around 93'.
  • AKH started the game with stronger pressure.
AKH Pressure FK Nizjni Novgorod Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FK Nizjni Novgorod reached the top pressure at 93' (78.76).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Akhmat Grozny AKH Home
9 matches
FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod Away
Match Record
4
Wins
5
0
Draws
0
5
Losses
4
Goals
14
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
14
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:05:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
G. Sheliya
Russia
88 G. Sheliya
M. Sidorov
Russia
81 M. Sidorov
O. Ndong
Senegal
90 O. Ndong
K. Cake
Albania
5 K. Cake
M. Bogosavac
Serbia
8 M. Bogosavac
S. Pryakhin
Russia
19 S. Pryakhin
I. Silva Lima
Brazil
11 I. Silva Lima
M. Samorodov
Substitution
Kazakhstan
20 M. Samorodov
E. dos Santos Cacintura
Substitution
Angola
17 E. dos Santos Cacintura
L. Sadulaev
Russia
7 L. Sadulaev
G. Melkadze
Substitution
Russia
77 G. Melkadze
Pitch
N. Medvedev
Russia
30 N. Medvedev
Y. Koledin
Substitution
Russia
3 Y. Koledin
I. Kirsh
Russia
4 I. Kirsh
N. Kakkoev
Russia
22 N. Kakkoev
N. Kalinsky
Russia
78 N. Kalinsky
S. Karič
Slovenia
25 S. Karič
L. Vešner Tičić
Slovenia
29 L. Vešner Tičić
M. Shnaptsev
Russia
70 M. Shnaptsev
D. Lesovoy
Substitution
Russia
88 D. Lesovoy
A. Balboa Camacho
Uruguay
10 A. Balboa Camacho
R. Cephas
Jamaica
21 R. Cephas

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Akhmat Arena
Capacity :
30597
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Sergey Cheban
Anton Anopa
Maksim Gavrilin
Denis Petrov

Statistics

Possession
AKH
45%
FK Nizjni Novgorod
55%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 3
48 Dangerous attacks 57
43 Possession 57
8 Corners 5
17 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
6 Successful Headers 10
28 Dribble Attempts 12
10 Successful Dribbles 5
6 Goal Kicks 10
20 Throwins 11
1 Assists 0
80 Ball Safe 87
3 Injuries 1
13 Goal Attempts 8
3 Substitutions 3

Attacking

88 Attacks 101
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

15 Successful Long Passes 25
317 Passes 437
37 Long Passes 51
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
257 Successful Passes 377
81 Successful Passes Percentage 86

Defensive

10 Interceptions 11
10 Tackles 25
3 Saves 3
40 Duels Won 55

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 8
20 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
16 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Sergey Cheban

Starting XI ▼

88
Giorgiy Shelia
Giorgiy Shelia Goalkeeper
6.69
5
Klisman Cake
Klisman Cake Defender
6.69
8
Miroslav Bogosavac
Miroslav Bogosavac Defender
6.7
81
Maksim Sidorov
Maksim Sidorov Defender
6.68
90
Ousmane N’Dong
Ousmane N’Dong Defender
6.87
7
Lechi Sadulaev
Lechi Sadulaev Midfielder
6.81
11
Ismael Silva
Ismael Silva Midfielder
6.92
17
Egas Cacintura
Egas Cacintura Midfielder
6.92
42
Kelliano
Kelliano
Midfielder85'
6.82
19
S. Pryakhin
S. Pryakhin Midfielder
6.7
20
Maksim Samorodov
Maksim Samorodov Midfielder
6.99
9
Brian Mansilla
Brian Mansilla
Attacker75'
6.79
77
Georgiy Melkadze
Georgiy Melkadze Attacker
6.84
13
Mohamed Konaté
Mohamed Konaté
Attacker75'
6.67
Referee : Sergey Cheban

Starting XI ▼

30
Nikita Medvedev
Nikita Medvedev Goalkeeper
6.77
3
Yuriy Koledin
Yuriy Koledin Defender
6.64
77
Andrey Ivlev
Andrey Ivlev
Midfielder64'
6.63
4
Ilya Kirsch
Ilya Kirsch Defender
6.72
22
Nikita Kakkoev
Nikita Kakkoev Defender
6.57
25
Sven Karič
Sven Karič Midfielder
6.95
29
Luka Tičić
Luka Tičić Midfielder
6.76
70
Maksim Shnaptsev
Maksim Shnaptsev Midfielder
6.62
78
Nikolay Kalinskiy
Nikolay Kalinskiy Midfielder
6.64
10
Adrián Balboa
Adrián Balboa Attacker
6.73
21
R. Cephas
R. Cephas Attacker
6.61
88
Daniil Lesovoy
Daniil Lesovoy Attacker
6.64
69
Artem Sidorenko
Artem Sidorenko
Midfielder46'
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Vadim Garanin
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Kelliano → Egas Cacintura
5th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Matvey Urvantsev → Artem Sidorenko
6th Substitution
Event
Ismael Silva
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
78'
Event
Mohamed Konaté → Georgiy Melkadze
3rd Substitution
75'
Event
Brian Mansilla → Maksim Samorodov
4th Substitution
75'
64'
Event
Andrey Ivlev → Yuriy Koledin
2nd Substitution
Event
Egas Cacintura
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
60'
Event
Lechi Sadulaev
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
55'
46'
Event
Artem Sidorenko → Daniil Lesovoy
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Lechi Sadulaev
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
44'
Event
Georgiy Melkadze
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
34'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Sergey Pryakhin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Manuel Keliano takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Konate attempted a header but missed the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Manuel Keliano's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Konate attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Konate attempts a header but misses the shot.
85
Update Update
Matvey Urvantsev comes on for Artem Sidorenko.
85
Update Update
Manuel Keliano is on, and Egas dos Santos Cacintura is off.
77
Attempt Attempt
Braian Mansilla takes a left-footed shot but misses.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Mohamed Konate comes on for Georgi Melkadze.
75
Update Update
Braian Mansilla comes on for Maksim Samorodov.
71
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Balboa's right-footed shot is blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Sven Karic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Luka Ticic's left-footed shot is saved.
64
Update Update
Andrey Ivlev is on, and Yuri Koledin is off.
60
Attempt Attempt
Egas dos Santos Cacintura takes a left-footed shot and scores.
59
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Balboa's right-footed shot is blocked.
55
Attempt Attempt
Lechii Sadulaev scores with a right-footed shot.
48
Attempt Attempt
Artem Sidorenko takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Artem Sidorenko replaces Danylo Lisovy.
45
Attempt Attempt
Luka Ticic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Luka Ticic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Lechii Sadulaev has a right-footed shot that is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Georgi Melkadze takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Samorodov takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Balboa takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Danylo Lisovy takes a right-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Samorodov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
29
Update Update
Ousmane Ndong's header is blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Balboa takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Georgi Melkadze takes a right-footed shot but misses.
14
Attempt Attempt
Egas dos Santos Cacintura takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
7
Attempt Attempt
Ismael Silva Lima takes a right-footed shot but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Sergey Pryakhin takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
4
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Balboa's header is saved.

CONCLUSION

Akhmat Grozny's 2-0 victory over FK Nizjni Novgorod exemplifies their tactical discipline and second-half potency, converting sparse possession into decisive goals. Prevailing as the stronger side without concessions, they navigated a possession disadvantage seamlessly. This significant structural deviation, coupled with market alignment and steady efficiency, positions Akhmat favorably in the standings. Absent disruptions like red cards, the clean sheet bolsters defensive confidence heading into upcoming fixtures. Nizjni's efforts fell short, underscoring the need for better chance creation. Overall, Akhmat's performance signals rising momentum in the league.

Akhmat Grozny vs FK Nizjni Novgorod preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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