Anderlecht vs Club Brugge Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Lotto Park Sun, 3 May - 4:30 PM
Pro League
Anderlecht ADL
1 Winner 3
Club Brugge BRU
Full Time Sun, 3 May 4:30 PM
Round 6 Championship Round
Mihajlo Cvetkovic - 83'
Goal
|
Goal
Christos Tzolis - 61'
Carlos Forbs - 59'
Mathys Angély - 8' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

Club Brugge delivered a commanding 3-1 away victory against Anderlecht in the Belgian Pro League, overturning the home side's possession dominance. Anderlecht held 61% possession but struggled to convert chances, managing just one goal while Club Brugge struck three times with ruthless efficiency. The visitors led 1-0 at halftime and pulled away in the second half with two additional goals. Identified as the stronger team beforehand, Club Brugge's performance resulted in a significant structural deviation of 40.5% in their favor. No red cards disrupted play, and the match proceeded without major tactical adjustments from either side. Anderlecht's inability to capitalize on their territorial advantage highlighted Club Brugge's superior clinical edge and defensive resilience, securing a deserved three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Club Brugge recorded a significant 40.5% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No impactful events or second-half adjustments occurred.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

N. Laforge

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Conotte

1st Assistant

V. Divincenzo

2nd Assistant

A. Letellier

4th Official

Anderlecht J. Taravel
J. Taravel
VS
Club Brugge I. Leko
I. Leko
1.27
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.09
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 L
Sint-Truiden Rank: 75 L
Mechelen Rank: 70 W
Gent Rank: 72 W
Club Brugge Rank: 86 L
Cercle Brugge Rank: 69 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gent Rank: 72 W
Mechelen Rank: 70 W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 L
Sint-Truiden Rank: 76 W
Anderlecht Rank: 73 W
Mechelen Rank: 70 W
22
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
22 - 25 - 23
23

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Anderlecht
19.68%
Draw
20.77%
Away Club Brugge
59.54%

Movement

Changes since opening
Anderlecht
+19.48%
Draw
+18.85%
Club Brugge
-38.35%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.61
85.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Anderlecht
Club Brugge
Power Score
72.61
85.83
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
146
30

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Anderlecht — Opponent-weighted form score
Club Brugge — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Anderlecht Club Brugge

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Anderlecht

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Club Brugge

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Anderlecht ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Club Brugge
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.26
61.54
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
61.54
29.26
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Anderlecht -3.06 Efficiency Index
vs
Club Brugge +3.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Anderlecht
Club Brugge
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Anderlecht ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Club Brugge
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Anderlecht Club Brugge
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Anderlecht Club Brugge
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Anderlecht
Club Brugge
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Anderlecht
vs
Club Brugge
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Anderlecht Club Brugge
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Anderlecht 0.26
Club Brugge 0.55
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Anderlecht Club Brugge
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Anderlecht 0.08
Club Brugge 0.02
Anderlecht
Club Brugge
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ADL had peak pressure around 60'.
  • BRU started the game with stronger pressure.
ADL Pressure BRU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ADL reached the top pressure at 60' (87.95).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 70 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Anderlecht ADL Home
70 matches
Club Brugge BRU Away
Match Record
22
Wins
23
25
Draws
25
23
Losses
22
Goals
97
Goals Scored
103
103
Goals Conceded
97
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:06:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
C. Coosemans
Belgium
26 C. Coosemans
I. Camara
Substitution
Belgium
7 I. Camara
M. Angely
France
4 M. Angely
M. Diarra
Substitution
Mali
93 M. Diarra
L. Augustinsson
Sweden
6 L. Augustinsson
M. Kana
Belgium
55 M. Kana
E. Llansana
Substitution
Netherlands
24 E. Llansana
M. Cvetković
Serbia
9 M. Cvetković
Y. Verschaeren
Substitution
Belgium
10 Y. Verschaeren
T. Degreef
Belgium
83 T. Degreef
T. Hazard
Substitution
Belgium
11 T. Hazard
Pitch
N. Jackers
Substitution
Belgium
29 N. Jackers
J. Seys
Belgium
65 J. Seys
B. Mechele
Belgium
44 B. Mechele
J. Ordóñez Guerrero
Ecuador
4 J. Ordóñez Guerrero
H. Siquet
Substitution
Belgium
41 H. Siquet
H. Vetlesen
Norway
10 H. Vetlesen
A. Stankovic
Substitution
Serbia
25 A. Stankovic
C. Tzolis
Greece
8 C. Tzolis
H. Vanaken
Belgium
20 H. Vanaken
C. Borges
Substitution
Portugal
9 C. Borges
N. Tresoldi
Substitution
Germany
7 N. Tresoldi

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 6 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Lotto Park
Capacity :
21500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Laurent Conotte
Nicolas Laforge
Vito Divincenzo
Anthony Letellier

Statistics

Possession
ADL
57%
BRU
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 6
8 Shots 16
57 Dangerous attacks 40
61 Possession 39
8 Corners 4
9 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

10 Goal Kicks 9
90 Ball Safe 83
12 Goal Attempts 16
1 Hit Woodwork 1
7 Successful Dribbles 5
11 Dribble Attempts 10
5 Substitutions 5
16 Throwins 11
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
1 Assists 2
3 Injuries 2

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 4
117 Attacks 75

Possession

22 Successful Long Passes 16
10 Key Passes 19
83 Successful Passes Percentage 80
475 Successful Passes 294
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
54 Long Passes 44
570 Passes 368

Defensive

42 Duels Won 47
6 Saves 3
14 Tackles 15
7 Interceptions 17

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 9
3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

8 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Nicolas Laforge

Starting XI ▼

26
Colin Coosemans
Colin Coosemans Goalkeeper
6.84
4
Mathys Angély
Mathys Angély Defender
6.52
6
Ludwig Augustinsson
Ludwig Augustinsson Defender
6.93
7
Ilay Camara
Ilay Camara Defender
6.64
99
Ibrahim Kanaté
Ibrahim Kanaté
Midfielder69'
6.55
93
Moussa Diarra
Moussa Diarra Defender
6.6
15
Mihajlo Ilić
Mihajlo Ilić
Defender29'
6.8
9
Mihajlo Cvetkovic
Mihajlo Cvetkovic Midfielder
6.78
10
Yari Verschaeren
Yari Verschaeren Midfielder
6.77
21
César Huerta
César Huerta
Midfielder76'
6.8
24
Enric Llansana
Enric Llansana Midfielder
6.84
74
Nathan De Cat
Nathan De Cat
Midfielder46'
6.89
55
Marco Kana
Marco Kana Midfielder
6.75
83
Tristan Degreef
Tristan Degreef Midfielder
6.6
11
Thorgan Hazard
Thorgan Hazard Attacker
7.33
91
Adriano Bertaccini
Adriano Bertaccini
Attacker69'
8.3
Referee : Nicolas Laforge

Starting XI ▼

29
Nordin Jackers
Nordin Jackers Goalkeeper
6.98
16
Dani van den Heuvel
Dani van den Heuvel
Goalkeeper20'
6.48
4
Joel Ordóñez
Joel Ordóñez Defender
6.88
41
Hugo Siquet
Hugo Siquet Defender
6.76
58
Jorne Spileers
Jorne Spileers
Defender75'
6.77
44
Brandon Mechele
Brandon Mechele Defender
7.19
65
Joaquin Seys
Joaquin Seys Defender
6.84
8
Christos Tzolis
Christos Tzolis Midfielder
7.73
9
Carlos Forbs
Carlos Forbs Midfielder
6.98
11
Cisse Sandra
Cisse Sandra
Midfielder75'
6.68
10
Hugo Vetlesen
Hugo Vetlesen Midfielder
6.9
20
Hans Vanaken
Hans Vanaken Midfielder
7.28
25
Aleksandar Stanković
Aleksandar Stanković Midfielder
7.14
15
Raphael Onyedika
Raphael Onyedika
Midfielder79'
6.77
7
Nicolò Tresoldi
Nicolò Tresoldi Attacker
7.04
17
Romeo Vermant
Romeo Vermant
Attacker75'
6.83

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Cisse Sandra
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Marco Kana
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Mihajlo Cvetkovic
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
83'
79'
Event
Raphael Onyedika → Aleksandar Stanković
10th Substitution
Event
César Huerta  → Yari Verschaeren
9th Substitution
76'
75'
Event
Cisse Sandra → Carlos Forbs
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Jorne Spileers → Hugo Siquet
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Romeo Vermant → Nicolò Tresoldi
8th Substitution
Event
Adriano Bertaccini → Thorgan Hazard
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Ibrahim Kanaté → Ilay Camara
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Nathan De Cat
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
67'
61'
Event
Christos Tzolis
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
59'
Event
Carlos Forbs
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Nathan De Cat → Enric Llansana
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Mihajlo Ilić → Moussa Diarra
2nd Substitution
29'
20'
Event
Dani van den Heuvel → Nordin Jackers
1st Substitution
13'
Event
Hugo Vetlesen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
8'
Event
Mathys Angély
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cisse Sandra receives a yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marco Kana receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Cisse Sandra takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Christos Tzolis takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
88
Attempt Attempt
Christos Tzolis takes a left-footed shot but misses.
87
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Romeo Vermant with his left foot is saved.
86
Attempt Attempt
Cesar Huerta takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Adriano Bertaccini takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Raphael Onyedika takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Attempt Attempt
Mihajlo Cvetkovic takes a left-footed shot and scores.
81
Attempt Attempt
Adriano Bertaccini takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
79
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Romeo Vermant with his right foot is saved.
79
Update Update
Raphael Onyedika replaces Aleksandar Stankovic.
77
Update Update
Cesar Huerta comes on for Yari Verschaeren.
77
Attempt Attempt
Christos Tzolis takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Update Update
Jorne Spileers comes on for Hugo Siquet.
75
Update Update
Cisse Sandra comes on for Carlos Borges.
75
Update Update
Romeo Vermant is on, and Nicolo Tresoldi is off.
74
Attempt Attempt
Tristan Degreef takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Update Update
Adriano Bertaccini replaces Thorgan Hazard.
69
Update Update
Ibrahim Kanate comes on for Ilay Camara.
64
Attempt Attempt
Mihajlo Cvetkovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
61
Attempt Attempt
Christos Tzolis scores with a left-footed shot.
59
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Borges scores with a left-footed shot.
58
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Vetlesen attempts a header but misses the shot.
56
Attempt Attempt
Thorgan Hazard takes a right-footed shot but misses.
56
Attempt Attempt
Mathys Angely takes a right-footed shot but misses.
56
Attempt Attempt
Yari Verschaeren's right-footed shot is blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Brandon Mechele takes a header shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Nicolo Tresoldi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Mihajlo Ilic attempts a header but misses the shot.
48
Attempt Attempt
Nathan De Cat takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
46
Update Update
Nathan De Cat is on, and Enric Llansana is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Tristan Degreef takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Enric Llansana takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandar Stankovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Vetlesen's left-footed shot is blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Christos Tzolis misses a right-footed shot.
40
Update Update
Joel Leandro Ordonez Guerrero's header is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandar Stankovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Mihajlo Ilic takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Vetlesen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Tristan Degreef's right-footed shot is saved.
29
Update Update
Mihajlo Ilic comes on for Moussa Diarra.
20
Update Update
Dani van den Heuvel is on, and Nordin Jackers is off.
14
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hugo Vetlesen receives a yellow card.
13
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Borges takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
12
Attempt Attempt
Christos Tzolis takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
9
Update Update
Own goal by Mathys Angely puts the score at 0-1.
6
Attempt Attempt
Nicolo Tresoldi has a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Christos Tzolis takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Club Brugge's 3-1 triumph over Anderlecht underscores their status as the stronger outfit, capitalizing on superior finishing despite Anderlecht's 61% possession edge. The significant structural deviation of 40.5% reflects the visitors' dominance, with market alignment confirming pre-match expectations. Lacking xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis, but the clean sheet on discipline—no red cards—and efficient second-half scoring sealed a professional win. Anderlecht must address their wastefulness, while Club Brugge builds momentum with this convincing performance.

Anderlecht vs Club Brugge preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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