SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Europa-Park Stadion Sun, 3 May - 5:30 PM
Bundesliga
SC Freiburg SCF
1 – 1
VfL Wolfsburg WOB
Full Time Sun, 3 May 5:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Philipp Lienhart - 75'
Goal
|
Goal
Konstantinos Koulierakis - 55'

CONTEXT

SC Freiburg hosted VfL Wolfsburg in a Bundesliga encounter that concluded in a 1-1 draw, despite Freiburg's clear dominance in possession at 63% to Wolfsburg's 37%. The first half ended goalless at 0-0, with both teams finding the net once in the second period. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, Freiburg failed to convert their territorial advantage into a victory, resulting in a significant structural deviation of 74% from expectations. No red cards were issued, and there were no notable second-half tactical adjustments reported. This outcome highlights Freiburg's inability to capitalize on their control, allowing Wolfsburg to secure a point through resilient defending and a clinical counter. The match underscores the fine margins in competitive football where possession does not always equate to points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: SC Freiburg experienced a significant 74% structural deviation from pre-match expectations in the 1-1 draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, so alignment with expected goals cannot be determined.
  • Market alignment: The draw outcome did not align with pre-match market probabilities favoring SC Freiburg.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to lack of underlying data.
  • Event impact: No significant events or adjustments impacted the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the game's structure.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Dankert

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Rohde

1st Assistant

S. Lupp

2nd Assistant

M. Eckermann

4th Official

SC Freiburg J. Schuster
J. Schuster
VS
VfL Wolfsburg D. Hecking
D. Hecking
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.77
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 89 L
Heidenheim Rank: 71 W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 82 W
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
St. Pauli Rank: 72 W
FC Union Berlin Rank: 73 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 75 D
FC Union Berlin Rank: 74 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 81 L
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 90 L
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 L
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 84 D
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 5 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SC Freiburg
47.39%
Draw
26.02%
Away VfL Wolfsburg
26.6%

Movement

Changes since opening
SC Freiburg
+42.48%
Draw
-64.62%
VfL Wolfsburg
+22.15%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
82.08
74.69
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SC Freiburg
VfL Wolfsburg
Power Score
82.08
74.69
League Position
7
16
Global Rank
49
116

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SC Freiburg — Opponent-weighted form score
VfL Wolfsburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SC Freiburg VfL Wolfsburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

SC Freiburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

VfL Wolfsburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SC Freiburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy VfL Wolfsburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.11
41.22
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
41.22
21.11
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SC Freiburg -1.81 Efficiency Index
vs
VfL Wolfsburg +1.81 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SC Freiburg
VfL Wolfsburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SC Freiburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy VfL Wolfsburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SC Freiburg VfL Wolfsburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SC Freiburg VfL Wolfsburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
SC Freiburg
VfL Wolfsburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
SC Freiburg
vs
VfL Wolfsburg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
SC Freiburg VfL Wolfsburg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
SC Freiburg 0.24
VfL Wolfsburg 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
SC Freiburg VfL Wolfsburg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
SC Freiburg 0.02
VfL Wolfsburg 0.02
SC Freiburg
VfL Wolfsburg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • WOB had peak pressure around 60'.
  • SCF started the game with stronger pressure.
SCF Pressure WOB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: WOB reached the top pressure at 60' (92.89).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SC Freiburg SCF Home
31 matches
VfL Wolfsburg WOB Away
Match Record
14
Wins
12
5
Draws
5
12
Losses
14
Goals
47
Goals Scored
56
56
Goals Conceded
47
-9
Goal Difference
+9

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:06:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
N. Atubolu
Germany
1 N. Atubolu
P. Treu
Germany
29 P. Treu
M. Ginter
Germany
28 M. Ginter
B. Ogbus
Substitution
Switzerland
43 B. Ogbus
C. Günter
Substitution
Germany
30 C. Günter
M. Eggestein
Germany
8 M. Eggestein
J. Manzambi
Switzerland
44 J. Manzambi
J. Beste
Germany
19 J. Beste
Y. Suzuki
Substitution
Japan
14 Y. Suzuki
V. Grifo
Substitution
Italy
32 V. Grifo
L. Höler
Substitution
Germany
9 L. Höler
Pitch
K. Grabara
Poland
1 K. Grabara
K. Koulierakis
Substitution
Greece
4 K. Koulierakis
D. Vavro
Slovakia
3 D. Vavro
J. Belocian
France
6 J. Belocian
J. Mæhle
Denmark
21 J. Mæhle
C. Dannemann Eriksen
Substitution
Denmark
24 C. Dannemann Eriksen
V. de Souza Costa
Substitution
Brazil
5 V. de Souza Costa
P. Wimmer
Substitution
Austria
39 P. Wimmer
S. Kumbedi Nseke
France
26 S. Kumbedi Nseke
D. Pejcinovic
Germany
17 D. Pejcinovic
A. Daghim
Substitution
Denmark
11 A. Daghim

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Europa-Park Stadion
Capacity :
34700
Attendance :
32500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
René Rohde
Stefan Lupp
Marc-Philipp Eckermann
Bastian Dankert

Statistics

Possession
SCF
58%
WOB
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 7
46 Dangerous attacks 45
63 Possession 37
1 Corners 7
11 Free kicks 5
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Successful Dribbles 5
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
32 Throwins 23
17 Successful Headers 9
14 Dribble Attempts 11
0 Hit Woodwork 1
9 Goal Kicks 10
1 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
8 Goal Attempts 11
78 Ball Safe 69
3 Injuries 1

Attacking

87 Attacks 90
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

29 Successful Long Passes 20
422 Successful Passes 200
502 Passes 286
84 Successful Passes Percentage 70
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
53 Long Passes 65
9 Key Passes 11

Defensive

12 Tackles 25
45 Duels Won 45
5 Interceptions 7
3 Saves 2

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 19
7 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
5 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Bastian Dankert

Starting XI ▼

1
Noah Atubolu
Noah Atubolu Goalkeeper
6.89
28
Matthias Ginter
Matthias Ginter Defender
6.95
29
Philipp Treu
Philipp Treu Defender
6.65
30
Christian Günter
Christian Günter Defender
6.55
17
Lukas Kübler
Lukas Kübler
Defender72'
6.84
43
Bruno Ogbus
Bruno Ogbus Defender
6.66
3
Philipp Lienhart
Philipp Lienhart
Defender58'
6.73
8
Maximilian Eggestein
Maximilian Eggestein Midfielder
6.92
14
Yuito Suzuki
Yuito Suzuki Midfielder
6.73
27
Nicolas Höfler
Nicolas Höfler
Midfielder81'
6.51
19
Niklas Beste
Niklas Beste Midfielder
6.82
32
Vincenzo Grifo
Vincenzo Grifo Midfielder
6.97
7
Derry Scherhant
Derry Scherhant
Attacker71'
6.65
44
Johan Manzambi
Johan Manzambi Midfielder
7.03
9
Lucas Höler
Lucas Höler Attacker
6.73
31
Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic
Attacker58'
6.84
Referee : Bastian Dankert

Starting XI ▼

1
Kamil Grabara
Kamil Grabara Goalkeeper
6.88
3
Denis Vavro
Denis Vavro Defender
6.66
4
Konstantinos Koulierakis
Konstantinos Koulierakis Defender
6.76
15
Moritz Jenz
Moritz Jenz
Defender90+7'
6.61
6
Jeanuël Belocian
Jeanuël Belocian Defender
6.66
5
Vinicius de Souza Costa
Vinicius de Souza Costa Midfielder
6.74
32
Mattias Svanberg
Mattias Svanberg
Midfielder72'
6.5
21
Joakim Maehle
Joakim Maehle Midfielder
6.71
24
Christian Eriksen
Christian Eriksen Midfielder
6.99
31
Yannick Gerhardt
Yannick Gerhardt
Midfielder90+7'
6.67
26
Saël Kumbedi
Saël Kumbedi Midfielder
6.52
39
Patrick Wimmer
Patrick Wimmer Midfielder
6.76
10
Lovro Majer
Lovro Majer
Midfielder72'
6.75
11
Adam Daghim
Adam Daghim Attacker
6.69
9
Mohamed Amoura
Mohamed Amoura
Attacker87'
6.87
17
Dzenan Pejcinovic
Dzenan Pejcinovic Attacker
6.76

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Yannick Gerhardt → Christian Eriksen
9th Substitution
90+7'
Event
Moritz Jenz → Konstantinos Koulierakis
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Mohamed Amoura → Adam Daghim
8th Substitution
Event
Nicolas Höfler → Yuito Suzuki
7th Substitution
81'
81'
Event
Mattias Svanberg
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Philipp Lienhart
Header / 2nd Goal
75'
Event
Lukas Kübler → Christian Günter
4th Substitution
72'
72'
Event
Lovro Majer → Patrick Wimmer
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Mattias Svanberg → Vinicius de Souza Costa
6th Substitution
Event
Derry Scherhant → Vincenzo Grifo
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Igor Matanovic → Lucas Höler
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Philipp Lienhart → Bruno Ogbus
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Matthias Ginter
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
57'
55'
Event
Konstantinos Koulierakis
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Moritz Jenz is on, and Konstantinos Koulierakis is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Johan Manzambi's left-footed shot is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Johan Manzambi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Maximilian Eggestein takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Yannick Gerhardt comes on for Christian Eriksen.
86
Update Update
Mohamed Amoura is on, and Adam Daghim is off.
86
Attempt Attempt
Philipp Lienhart attempts a header but misses the shot.
81
Substitution Substitution
Nicolas Hofler is substituted off for Yuito Suzuki.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mattias Svanberg receives a yellow card.
77
Attempt Attempt
Adam Daghim takes a left-footed shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
Lovro Majer takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Update Update
Goal! Philipp Lienhart scores, making it 1-1.
75
Update Update
Philipp Lienhart scores with a header.
72
Update Update
Lukas Kubler replaces Christian Gunter.
72
Update Update
Mattias Svanberg comes on for Vinicius de Souza Costa.
72
Update Update
Lovro Majer comes on for Patrick Wimmer.
71
Update Update
Derry Scherhant replaces Vincenzo Grifo.
61
Attempt Attempt
Dzenan Pejcinovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
60
Attempt Attempt
Johan Manzambi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Update Update
Philipp Lienhart is on, and Ifechukwu Ogbus is off.
58
Update Update
Igor Matanovic comes on for Lucas Holer.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matthias Ginter receives a yellow card.
55
Update Update
Konstantinos Koulierakis scores with a header.
55
Update Update
Goal! Konstantinos Koulierakis scores, making it 1-0.
55
Attempt Attempt
Dzenan Pejcinovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Adam Daghim takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
47
Attempt Attempt
Dzenan Pejcinovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Attempt Attempt
Jeanuel Belocian takes a left-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Christian Gunter takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Adam Daghim takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
33
Attempt Attempt
Adam Daghim takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
26
Update Update
Maximilian Eggestein's header is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Wimmer takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
23
Attempt Attempt
Yuito Suzuki's right-footed shot is blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Dzenan Pejcinovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
16
Attempt Attempt
Dzenan Pejcinovic takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Vincenzo Grifo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Christian Eriksen takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw represents a missed opportunity for SC Freiburg, who controlled 63% possession and were deemed the stronger side yet could only muster parity against VfL Wolfsburg. The goalless first half set a cautious tone, with second-half goals leveling proceedings amid Freiburg's failure to breach effectively. This significant deviation underscores inefficiencies in converting dominance into decisive moments, while Wolfsburg's compact shape earned a valuable point. Without red cards or major disruptions, the result reflects balanced execution under pressure, reminding that sustained control requires sharper finishing. Freiburg's post-match focus will likely shift to refining chance creation for future fixtures.

SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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