Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Villa Park Sun, 3 May - 6:00 PM
Premier League
Aston Villa AVL
1 Winner 2
Tottenham Hotspur TOT
Full Time Sun, 3 May 6:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Emiliano Buendía - 90+6'
Goal
|
Goal
Richarlison - 25'
Conor Gallagher - 12'

CONTEXT

Aston Villa welcomed Tottenham Hotspur to Villa Park for a Premier League clash that unfolded dramatically, concluding with a 1-2 victory for the visitors. Spurs seized control early, netting twice before halftime to lead 2-0, silencing the home crowd. Villa, viewed as the stronger outfit beforehand, responded assertively after the break, scoring once to inject tension but ultimately falling short of parity. Possession tilted slightly Tottenham's way at 54% against Villa's 46%, reflecting a gritty away performance. The match stayed free of red cards, ensuring uninterrupted competition. This result underscores Tottenham's knack for defying forecasts, marking a substantial shift from structural norms where Villa entered as favorites. Second-half pressure tested Spurs' resolve, yet they held firm, clinching vital points on the road.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Tottenham Hotspur's 2-1 win marked a 68.1% significant structural deviation favoring the visitors.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match evaluations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: The result diverged from pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be measured due to absent data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Barrott

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Mainwaring

1st Assistant

W. Smith

2nd Assistant

P. Tierney

4th Official

Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
VS
Tottenham Hotspur R. De Zerbi
R. De Zerbi
1.79
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.71
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fulham Rank: 85 L
Sunderland Rank: 81 W
Nottingham Forest Rank: 84 D
West Ham United Rank: 83 W
Manchester United Rank: 92 L
Chelsea Rank: 89 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 79 W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 89 D
Sunderland Rank: 81 L
Nottingham Forest Rank: 88 L
Liverpool Rank: 92 D
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 L
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 10 - 25
25

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aston Villa
42.04%
Draw
26.1%
Away Tottenham Hotspur
31.86%

Movement

Changes since opening
Aston Villa
+41.82%
Draw
+24.18%
Tottenham Hotspur
-66%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
90.04
84.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur
Power Score
90.04
84.42
League Position
5
17
Global Rank
11
38

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
Tottenham Hotspur — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aston Villa Tottenham Hotspur

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Aston Villa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Tottenham Hotspur

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aston Villa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tottenham Hotspur
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
14.24
21.48
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.48
14.24
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Aston Villa -0.81 Efficiency Index
vs
Tottenham Hotspur +0.81 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Aston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aston Villa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tottenham Hotspur
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Aston Villa Tottenham Hotspur
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Aston Villa Tottenham Hotspur
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Aston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Aston Villa
vs
Tottenham Hotspur
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Aston Villa Tottenham Hotspur
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Aston Villa 0.16
Tottenham Hotspur 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Aston Villa Tottenham Hotspur
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Aston Villa 0.06
Tottenham Hotspur 0.03
Aston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • TOT had peak pressure around 26'.
  • TOT started the game with stronger pressure.
AVL Pressure TOT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: TOT reached the top pressure at 26' (86.45).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 49 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aston Villa AVL Home
49 matches
Tottenham Hotspur TOT Away
Match Record
14
Wins
25
10
Draws
10
25
Losses
14
Goals
47
Goals Scored
82
82
Goals Conceded
47
-35
Goal Difference
+35

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:06:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Martínez
Argentina
23 D. Martínez
M. Cash
Poland
2 M. Cash
V. Nilsson Lindelöf
Sweden
3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
T. Mings
England
5 T. Mings
I. Maatsen
Netherlands
22 I. Maatsen
L. Bogarde
Netherlands
26 L. Bogarde
Y. Tielemans
Belgium
8 Y. Tielemans
J. Sancho
Substitution
England
19 J. Sancho
R. Barkley
Substitution
England
6 R. Barkley
M. Rogers
England
27 M. Rogers
K. Bakumo-Abraham
Substitution
England
18 K. Bakumo-Abraham
Pitch
A. Kinský
Czech Republic
31 A. Kinský
I. Udogie
Italy
13 I. Udogie
M. van de Ven
Netherlands
37 M. van de Ven
K. Danso
Austria
4 K. Danso
P. Porro Sauceda
Spain
23 P. Porro Sauceda
R. Bentancur Colmán
Substitution
Uruguay
30 R. Bentancur Colmán
J. Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalves
Portugal
6 J. Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalves
M. Tel
Substitution
France
11 M. Tel
C. Gallagher
England
22 C. Gallagher
R. Kolo Muani
Substitution
France
39 R. Kolo Muani
R. de Andrade
Substitution
Brazil
9 R. de Andrade

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Villa Park
Capacity :
42640
Attendance :
42767
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Samuel Barrott
James Mainwaring
Wade Smith
Paul Tierney

Statistics

Possession
AVL
46%
TOT
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
1 Shots 3
31 Dangerous attacks 32
46 Possession 54
5 Corners 5
16 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

21 Throwins 17
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
6 Goal Kicks 7
9 Successful Headers 5
13 Dribble Attempts 20
5 Successful Dribbles 7
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 1
67 Ball Safe 78
2 Goal Attempts 8
3 Substitutions 4
0 Injuries 2

Attacking

69 Attacks 105
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

374 Passes 453
84 Successful Passes Percentage 85
29 Long Passes 42
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
13 Successful Long Passes 13
313 Successful Passes 387
5 Key Passes 5

Defensive

4 Interceptions 10
44 Duels Won 45
19 Tackles 22
3 Saves 0

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 13
2 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

12 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

23
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
6.94
2
Matty Cash
Matty Cash Defender
6.92
3
Victor Lindelöf
Victor Lindelöf Defender
6.61
5
Tyrone Mings
Tyrone Mings Defender
6.75
22
Ian Maatsen
Ian Maatsen Defender
6.68
6
Ross Barkley
Ross Barkley Midfielder
6.78
10
Emiliano Buendía
Emiliano Buendía
Midfielder85'
6.78
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans Midfielder
7.18
19
Jadon Sancho
Jadon Sancho Midfielder
6.62
31
Leon Bailey
Leon Bailey
Attacker85'
6.46
26
Lamare Bogarde
Lamare Bogarde Midfielder
6.45
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Midfielder
6.91
18
Tammy Abraham
Tammy Abraham Attacker
6.75
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins
Attacker60'
6.87
Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

31
Antonín Kinský
Antonín Kinský Goalkeeper
6.7
4
Kevin Danso
Kevin Danso Defender
6.73
13
Destiny Udogie
Destiny Udogie Defender
6.52
23
Pedro Porro
Pedro Porro Defender
6.96
37
Micky van de Ven
Micky van de Ven Defender
6.76
6
João Palhinha
João Palhinha Midfielder
6.88
11
Mathys Tel
Mathys Tel Midfielder
6.72
15
Lucas Bergvall
Lucas Bergvall
Midfielder90+1'
6.62
22
Conor Gallagher
Conor Gallagher Midfielder
6.71
30
Rodrigo Bentancur
Rodrigo Bentancur Midfielder
6.85
8
Yves Bissouma
Yves Bissouma
Midfielder67'
6.6
39
Randal Kolo Muani
Randal Kolo Muani Midfielder
6.51
24
Djed Spence
Djed Spence
Defender66'
6.54
9
Richarlison
Richarlison Attacker
6.95
29
Pape Matar Sarr
Pape Matar Sarr
Midfielder90+1'
6.85

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Emiliano Buendía
Header / 3rd Goal
90+6'
90+6'
Event
Conor Gallagher
7th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Lucas Bergvall → Mathys Tel
6th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Pape Matar Sarr → Richarlison
7th Substitution
Event
Leon Bailey → Jadon Sancho
4th Substitution
85'
Event
Emiliano Buendía → Ross Barkley
5th Substitution
85'
81'
Event
Kevin Danso
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Morgan Rogers
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
77'
73'
Event
Mathys Tel
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
67'
Event
Yves Bissouma  → Rodrigo Bentancur 
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Djed Spence → Randal Kolo Muani
2nd Substitution
Event
Ollie Watkins → Tammy Abraham
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Ross Barkley
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
51'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Rodrigo Bentancur 
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
27'
Event
Randal Kolo Muani
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
25'
Event
Richarlison
Header / 2nd Goal
12'
Event
Conor Gallagher
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Lucas Bergvall comes on for Mathys Tel.
90
Update Update
Goal! Emiliano Buendia scores, making it 1-2.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Conor Gallagher receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Pape Matar Sarr comes on for Richarlison de Andrade.
90
Attempt Attempt
Emiliano Buendia takes a shot and scores with a header.
89
Attempt Attempt
Tyrone Mings attempted a header but missed the shot.
85
Update Update
Leon Bailey replaces Jadon Sancho.
85
Update Update
Emiliano Buendia comes on for Ross Barkley.
84
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Danso takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kevin Danso receives a yellow card.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Morgan Rogers receives a yellow card.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kevin Danso receives a yellow card.
71
Attempt Attempt
Ollie Watkins takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
67
Update Update
Yves Bissouma replaces Rodrigo Bentancur.
67
Update Update
Djed Spence comes on for Randal Kolo Muani.
64
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Rogers takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
61
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Rogers takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
60
Update Update
Ollie Watkins comes on for Tammy Abraham.
55
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Porro takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ross Barkley receives a yellow card.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rodrigo Bentancur receives a yellow card.
42
Attempt Attempt
Mathys Tel takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Randal Kolo Muani receives a yellow card.
25
Update Update
Goal! Richarlison de Andrade scores, making it 0-2, assisted by Mathys Tel.
25
Update Update
Richarlison de Andrade scores with a header.
25
Attempt Attempt
Randal Kolo Muani attempts a header but misses the shot.
25
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Danso's right-footed shot is blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Randal Kolo Muani's right-footed shot is saved.
17
Attempt Attempt
Joao Palhinha takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Conor Gallagher scores with a right-footed shot.
2
Attempt Attempt
Richarlison de Andrade takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Tottenham Hotspur's resilient 1-2 triumph over Aston Villa exemplifies their road warrior spirit, overturning pre-match favoritism toward the hosts. Villa's second-half rally, trimming a 0-2 halftime deficit, showcased fight but exposed finishing frailties. Spurs' 54% possession and early dominance proved decisive, bolstering their top-flight ambitions. For Villa, this setback demands introspection on converting pressure into points against perceived underdogs. The clean disciplinary record highlighted tactical purity, with Tottenham's defense standing tall. Momentum swings toward Spurs in the European chase, while Villa must sharpen to reclaim stride.

Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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