Olympique Lyonnais vs Rennes Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Groupama Stadium Sun, 3 May - 6:45 PM
Ligue 1
Olympique Lyonnais LYO
4 Winner 2
Rennes REN
Full Time Sun, 3 May 6:45 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Endrick - 75'
Afonso Moreira - 52'
Corentin Tolisso - 42' (P)
Roman Yaremchuk - 37'
Goal
|
Goal
Estéban Lepaul - 48'
Mousa Tamari - 6'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Olympique Lyonnais 4–2 Rennes. The result saw Olympique Lyonnais take the points. Olympique Lyonnais showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Olympique Lyonnais 2.1 – 0.9 Rennes. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lyon's 4-2 win showed minimal structural deviation of 2.1% from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams operated in line with efficiency norms throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: The outcome aligned perfectly with xG, as Lyon's 2.05 edged Rennes' 0.89.
  • Market alignment: Result matched pre-match market expectations fully.
  • xG expectations: Lyon met xG expectations by overperforming slightly on 2.05 chances.
  • Event impact: No significant second-half adjustments or events altered the game's trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Turpin

France 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Vernice

4th Official

France

N. Danos

1st Assistant

France

B. Pages

2nd Assistant

France

League averages

Ligue 1 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.38
Yellow cards / match 3.23
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.28
Olympique Lyonnais P. Rodrigues Fonseca
P. Rodrigues Fonseca
VS
Rennes F. Haise
F. Haise
1.85
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.05
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Auxerre Rank: 69 W
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 94 W
Lorient Rank: 73 W
Angers SCO Rank: 67 D
Monaco Rank: 80 L
Le Havre Rank: 68 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nantes Rank: 64 W
Strasbourg Rank: 80 W
Angers SCO Rank: 67 W
Brest Rank: 73 W
Metz Rank: 62 D
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 L
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 11 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Olympique Lyonnais
97.89%
Draw
1.92%
Away Rennes
0.2%

Movement

Changes since opening
Olympique Lyonnais
+0.03%
Draw
0%
Rennes
-0.02%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
83.17
79.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Olympique Lyonnais
Rennes
Power Score
83.17
79.21
League Position
3
5
Global Rank
45
65

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Olympique Lyonnais — Opponent-weighted form score
Rennes — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Olympique Lyonnais Rennes

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Olympique Lyonnais

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rennes

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Olympique Lyonnais ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rennes
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.60
19.10
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.10
36.60
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Olympique Lyonnais +1.72 Efficiency Index
vs
Rennes -1.72 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Olympique Lyonnais
Rennes
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Olympique Lyonnais
vs
Rennes
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Olympique Lyonnais Rennes
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Olympique Lyonnais Rennes
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Olympique Lyonnais
Rennes
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Olympique Lyonnais
vs
Rennes
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Olympique Lyonnais Rennes
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Olympique Lyonnais 0.35
Rennes 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Olympique Lyonnais Rennes
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Olympique Lyonnais 0.06
Rennes 0.09
Olympique Lyonnais
Rennes
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LYO had peak pressure around 85'.
  • REN started the game with stronger pressure.
LYO Pressure REN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LYO reached the top pressure at 85' (84.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Olympique Lyonnais LYO Home
40 matches
Rennes REN Away
Match Record
14
Wins
15
11
Draws
11
15
Losses
14
Goals
48
Goals Scored
55
55
Goals Conceded
48
-7
Goal Difference
+7

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T13:59:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
D. Greif
Slovakia
1 D. Greif
A. Maitland-Niles
England
98 A. Maitland-Niles
C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
Angola
22 C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
M. Niakhaté
Senegal
19 M. Niakhaté
A. Da Silva Santos
Substitution
Brazil
16 A. Da Silva Santos
T. Morton
Substitution
England
23 T. Morton
C. Tolisso
France
8 (C) C. Tolisso
E. Moreira de Sousa
Substitution
Brazil
9 E. Moreira de Sousa
K. Merah
Substitution
44 K. Merah
A. Bastardo Moreira
Portugal
17 A. Bastardo Moreira
R. Yaremchuk
Substitution
Ukraine
77 R. Yaremchuk
Pitch
B. Samba
France
30 B. Samba
Q. Merlin
France
26 Q. Merlin
L. Brassier
France
3 L. Brassier
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
Morocco
48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
A. Seidu
Substitution
Ghana
36 A. Seidu
M. Al Tamari
Substitution
Jordan
11 M. Al Tamari
M. Camara
Substitution
France
45 M. Camara
V. Rongier
France
21 (C) V. Rongier
S. Szymański
Substitution
Poland
17 S. Szymański
B. Embolo
Switzerland
7 B. Embolo
E. Lepaul
Substitution
France
9 E. Lepaul

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Groupama Stadium
Capacity :
59186
Attendance :
32500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mathieu Vernice
Clément Turpin
Nicolas Danos
Benjamin Pages

Statistics

Possession
LYO
52%
REN
48%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 5
46 Dangerous attacks 31
50 Possession 50
7 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

1 Penalties 0
59 Ball Safe 66
5 Injuries 1
12 Goal Attempts 8
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
11 Successful Headers 6
14 Throwins 15
3 Assists 2
19 Dribble Attempts 9
5 Goal Kicks 6
8 Successful Dribbles 3
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

94 Attacks 62
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

333 Successful Passes 345
83 Successful Passes Percentage 84
22 Successful Long Passes 13
47 Long Passes 37
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
399 Passes 411
12 Key Passes 5

Defensive

45 Duels Won 41
14 Tackles 22
17 Interceptions 6
3 Saves 5

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 13
7 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

10 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Clément Turpin

Starting XI ▼

1
Dominik Greif
Dominik Greif Goalkeeper
6.51
16
Abner
Abner Defender
7.38
99
Noah Nartey
Noah Nartey
Midfielder90+3'
6.71
19
Moussa Niakhaté
Moussa Niakhaté Defender
6.83
22
Clinton Mata
Clinton Mata Defender
6.72
98
Ainsley Maitland-Niles
Ainsley Maitland-Niles Defender
6.33
8
Corentin Tolisso
Corentin Tolisso (C) Midfielder
8.64
9
Endrick
Endrick Midfielder
8.09
37
Ernest Nuamah
Ernest Nuamah
Attacker84'
6.16
17
Afonso Moreira
Afonso Moreira Midfielder
8.18
23
Tyler Morton
Tyler Morton Midfielder
6.69
21
Ruben Kluivert
Ruben Kluivert
Defender84'
6.51
44
Khalis Merah
Khalis Merah Midfielder
6.87
39
M. de Carvalho
M. de Carvalho
Midfielder84'
6.66
77
Roman Yaremchuk
Roman Yaremchuk Attacker
7.4
10
Pavel Sulc
Pavel Sulc
Midfielder70'
6.39
Referee : Clément Turpin

Starting XI ▼

30
Brice Samba
Brice Samba Goalkeeper
7.05
3
Lilian Brassier
Lilian Brassier Defender
6.07
26
Quentin Merlin
Quentin Merlin Defender
6.28
36
Alidu Seidu
Alidu Seidu Defender
6.12
18
Mahamadou Nagida
Mahamadou Nagida
Defender71'
6.09
48
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal Defender
6.74
11
Mousa Tamari
Mousa Tamari Midfielder
7.53
65
Nordan Mukiele
Nordan Mukiele
Attacker87'
6.58
17
Sebastian Szymanski
Sebastian Szymanski Midfielder
6.87
10
Ludovic Blas
Ludovic Blas
Attacker70'
6.57
21
Valentin Rongier
Valentin Rongier (C) Midfielder
6.46
45
Mahdi Camara
Mahdi Camara Midfielder
6.61
6
Djaoui Cissé
Djaoui Cissé
Midfielder87'
6.69
7
Breel Embolo
Breel Embolo Attacker
6.35
9
Estéban Lepaul
Estéban Lepaul Attacker
7.76
77
Yassir Zabiri
Yassir Zabiri
Attacker87'
6.6

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Noah Nartey → Abner
10th Substitution
90+3'
87'
Event
Djaoui Cissé → Mahdi Camara
7th Substitution
87'
Event
Nordan Mukiele → Mousa Tamari
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Yassir Zabiri → Estéban Lepaul
9th Substitution
Event
M. de Carvalho → Khalis Merah
4th Substitution
84'
Event
Ruben Kluivert → Tyler Morton
5th Substitution
84'
Event
Ernest Nuamah → Endrick
6th Substitution
84'
82'
Event
Quentin Merlin
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Endrick
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
75'
71'
Event
Mahamadou Nagida → Alidu Seidu
3rd Substitution
Event
Pavel Sulc → Roman Yaremchuk
2nd Substitution
70'
70'
Event
Ludovic Blas → Sebastian Szymanski
1st Substitution
Event
Afonso Moreira
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
52'
48'
Event
Estéban Lepaul
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Corentin Tolisso
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
42'
40'
Event
Brice Samba
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Roman Yaremchuk
Header / 2nd Goal
37'
23'
Event
Estéban Lepaul
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
6'
Event
Mousa Tamari
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Noah Nartey replaces Abner Vinicius Da Silva Santos.
90
Attempt Attempt
Noah Nartey's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Pavel Sulc takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
87
Update Update
Djaoui Cisse comes on for Mahdi Camara.
87
Update Update
Yassir Zabiri comes on for Esteban Lepaul.
87
Update Update
Nordan Mukiele comes on for Mousa Tamari.
86
Attempt Attempt
Mahdi Camara takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Update Update
Ernest Nuamah is on, and Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa is off.
84
Update Update
Ruben Kluivert comes on for Tyler Morton.
84
Update Update
Mathys de Carvalho comes on for Khalis Merah.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Quentin Merlin receives a yellow card.
79
Attempt Attempt
Pavel Sulc takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
78
Attempt Attempt
Afonso Moreira's left-footed shot is saved.
75
Update Update
Goal! Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa scores, making it 4-2.
75
Attempt Attempt
Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
71
Update Update
Mahamadou Nagida comes on for Alidu Seidu.
70
Update Update
Pavel Sulc replaces Roman Yaremchuk.
70
Update Update
Ludovic Blas replaces Sebastian Szymanski.
70
Attempt Attempt
Afonso Moreira's right-footed shot is blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Szymanski takes a left-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Roman Yaremchuk's header is saved.
57
Attempt Attempt
Abner Vinicius Da Silva Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Tyler Morton takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Afonso Moreira scores with a right-footed shot.
51
Attempt Attempt
Esteban Lepaul's right-footed shot is saved.
50
Attempt Attempt
Esteban Lepaul takes a right-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Esteban Lepaul scores with a right-footed shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Breel Donald Embolo takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Corentin Tolisso takes a right-footed shot and scores.
42
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Corentin Tolisso scores. The match remains 2-1.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Brice Samba receives a yellow card.
37
Update Update
Roman Yaremchuk scores with a header.
30
Attempt Attempt
Afonso Moreira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Esteban Lepaul receives a yellow card.
25
Attempt Attempt
Mahdi Camara takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Clinton Mata takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
10
Attempt Attempt
Tyler Morton takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
10
Attempt Attempt
Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
6
Attempt Attempt
Mousa Tamari takes a shot with his left foot and scores.

CONCLUSION

Olympique Lyonnais delivered a statement performance, dismantling Rennes 4-2 with ruthless finishing that capitalized on their xG superiority. The 2-1 halftime lead set the tone, and Lyon's balanced possession game transitioned into decisive second-half goals. This result reinforces their status as the stronger outfit, with metrics confirming a textbook victory—no distortions from cards or shifts disrupted the narrative. Rennes fought back sporadically but couldn't bridge the quality gap. For Lyon, it's momentum-building fuel; for Rennes, a reminder of defensive frailties to address.

Olympique Lyonnais vs Rennes preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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