Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de Gran Canaria Sun, 3 May - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
Las Palmas LPA
2 Winner 1
Real Valladolid REV
Full Time Sun, 3 May 7:00 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Estanis Pedrola - 56'
Jesé - 2'
Goal
|
Goal
Stipe Biuk - 80'

CONTEXT

Las Palmas claimed a 2-1 home victory against Real Valladolid in a La Liga encounter at Estadio Gran Canaria. The hosts established a 1-0 lead by halftime, leveraging 56% possession to dictate the tempo. Valladolid mounted pressure in the second half but could only muster a consolation goal, as Las Palmas' backline held firm. Identified as the stronger team beforehand, Las Palmas delivered a performance with minimal structural deviation of 5.3%, aligning closely with pre-match assessments. No red cards disrupted proceedings, and the absence of significant second-half adjustments kept the game on a predictable path. Possession superiority translated into efficient chance creation and conversion, securing the three points without major surprises.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result showed minimal structural deviation of 5.3% favoring Las Palmas.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable xG data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without xG metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the game's flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards meant no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. González Esteban

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Clemente Ortuño

4th Official

Spain

D. Pérez de Colosía Alonso

1st Assistant

Spain

L. Marín Robles

2nd Assistant

Spain

League averages

La Liga 2 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.06
Yellow cards / match 4.68
Red cards / match 0.25
Penalties / match 0.33
Las Palmas L. García Fernández
L. García Fernández
VS
Real Valladolid F. Escriba Segura
F. Escriba Segura
1.72
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cádiz Rank: 56 W
Leganés Rank: 65 W
Málaga Rank: 69 L
Huesca Rank: 58 W
Granada Rank: 65 W
SD Eibar Rank: 70 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Sociedad II Rank: 59 W
FC Andorra Rank: 64 L
SD Eibar Rank: 70 D
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 57 L
Cádiz Rank: 57 W
Burgos Rank: 68 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 6 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Las Palmas
94.72%
Draw
5.09%
Away Real Valladolid
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Las Palmas
+0.56%
Draw
-0.56%
Real Valladolid
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.79
56.19
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Las Palmas
Real Valladolid
Power Score
63.79
56.19
League Position
4
15
Global Rank
179
474

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Las Palmas — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Valladolid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Las Palmas Real Valladolid

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Las Palmas

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Valladolid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Las Palmas ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Valladolid
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.54
21.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.02
25.54
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Las Palmas +0.46 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Valladolid -0.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Las Palmas
Real Valladolid
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Las Palmas ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Valladolid
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Las Palmas Real Valladolid
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Las Palmas Real Valladolid
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Las Palmas
Real Valladolid
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Las Palmas
vs
Real Valladolid
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Las Palmas Real Valladolid
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Las Palmas 0.26
Real Valladolid 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Las Palmas Real Valladolid
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Las Palmas 0.04
Real Valladolid 0.04
Las Palmas
Real Valladolid
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LPA had peak pressure around 16'.
  • LPA started the game with stronger pressure.
LPA Pressure REV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LPA reached the top pressure at 16' (72.15).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Las Palmas LPA Home
17 matches
Real Valladolid REV Away
Match Record
6
Wins
5
6
Draws
6
5
Losses
6
Goals
20
Goals Scored
23
23
Goals Conceded
20
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T06:38:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Horkaš
Croatia
1 D. Horkaš
V. Álvarez Rozada
Spain
17 V. Álvarez Rozada
S. Barcia Laranxeira
Spain
6 S. Barcia Laranxeira
M. Marmol Medina
Spain
3 M. Marmol Medina
E. Clemente Maza
Substitution
Spain
5 E. Clemente Maza
P. García Mejías
Substitution
Spain
22 P. García Mejías
K. Rodríguez Concepción
Spain
20 (C) K. Rodríguez Concepción
L. Amatucci
Italy
16 L. Amatucci
E. Pedrola Fortuny
Substitution
Spain
39 E. Pedrola Fortuny
J. Rodríguez Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
10 J. Rodríguez Ruiz
M. Fuster Lázaro
Substitution
Spain
14 M. Fuster Lázaro
Pitch
Á. Aceves Catalina
Spain
1 Á. Aceves Catalina
C. Clerc Martínez
Substitution
Spain
18 C. Clerc Martínez
P. Tomeo Félez
Spain
15 P. Tomeo Félez
M. Jaouab
Substitution
Morocco
23 M. Jaouab
C. Michelin
France
2 C. Michelin
M. Lachuer
France
6 M. Lachuer
J. Ponceau
Substitution
France
21 J. Ponceau
S. Biuk
Croatia
17 S. Biuk
V. Meseguer Cavas
Substitution
Spain
8 (C) V. Meseguer Cavas
L. Sanseviero
Substitution
Uruguay
19 L. Sanseviero
I. San José Cantalejo
Spain
20 I. San José Cantalejo

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de Gran Canaria
Capacity :
32392
Attendance :
17289
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alejandro Clemente Ortuño
Jon Ander González Esteban
David Pérez de Colosía Alonso
Luis Miguel Marín Robles

Statistics

Possession
LPA
56%
REV
44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 1
46 Dangerous attacks 25
56 Possession 44
3 Corners 7
15 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

20 Dribble Attempts 10
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
1 Goal Kicks 10
2 Assists 0
11 Successful Dribbles 5
10 Throwins 21
66 Ball Safe 72
10 Goal Attempts 3
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

132 Attacks 54

Possession

514 Successful Passes 366
570 Passes 432
18 Long Passes 32
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
90 Successful Passes Percentage 85
6 Successful Long Passes 18
9 Key Passes 4

Defensive

10 Tackles 16
42 Duels Won 38
16 Interceptions 9
1 Saves 2

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 3
8 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

9 Fouls 15
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Jon Ander González Esteban

Starting XI ▼

1
Dinko Horkas
Dinko Horkas Goalkeeper
6.48
3
Mika Mármol
Mika Mármol Defender
7.08
5
Enrique Clemente
Enrique Clemente Defender
7.05
15
Juanma Herzog
Juanma Herzog
Defender85'
6.51
6
Sergio Barcia
Sergio Barcia Defender
7.05
17
Viti Rozada
Viti Rozada Defender
6.55
16
Lorenzo Amatucci
Lorenzo Amatucci Midfielder
7.25
20
Kirian Rodríguez
Kirian Rodríguez (C) Midfielder
7.15
22
Ale García
Ale García Midfielder
6.81
18
Taisei Miyashiro
Taisei Miyashiro
Attacker66'
6.34
39
Estanis Pedrola
Estanis Pedrola Midfielder
7.38
2
Marvin Park
Marvin Park
Defender74'
6.41
10
Jesé
Jesé Attacker
7.36
49
Iker Bravo
Iker Bravo
Attacker74'
6.63
14
Manu Fuster
Manu Fuster Attacker
8.49
8
Iván Gil
Iván Gil
Midfielder85'
6.61
Referee : Jon Ander González Esteban

Starting XI ▼

1
Álvaro Aceves
Álvaro Aceves Goalkeeper
6.46
2
Clément Michelin
Clément Michelin Defender
6.51
15
Pablo Tomeo
Pablo Tomeo Defender
6.93
18
Carlos Clerc
Carlos Clerc Defender
6.16
30
Hugo San
Hugo San
Defender70'
6.56
23
Mohamed Jaouab
Mohamed Jaouab Defender
6.51
5
Ramón Martínez
Ramón Martínez
Defender70'
6.54
6
Mathis Lachuer
Mathis Lachuer Midfielder
6.81
8
Víctor Meseguer
Víctor Meseguer (C) Midfielder
6.56
11
Amath Ndiaye
Amath Ndiaye
Attacker65'
6.62
17
Stipe Biuk
Stipe Biuk Midfielder
7.24
19
Lucas Sanseviero
Lucas Sanseviero Midfielder
5.86
9
Juanmi Latasa
Juanmi Latasa
Attacker64'
6.57
21
Julien Ponceau
Julien Ponceau Midfielder
6.52
12
Ibrahim Alani
Ibrahim Alani
Midfielder74'
6.51
20
Chuki
Chuki Attacker
6.45

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Sergio Barcia
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Juanma Herzog → Enrique Clemente
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Iván Gil → Manu Fuster
9th Substitution
85'
82'
Event
Stipe Biuk
Goal awarded
80'
Event
Stipe Biuk
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Iker Bravo → Jesé
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Marvin Park → Estanis Pedrola
8th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Ibrahim Alani → Julien Ponceau
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Ramón Martínez → Mohamed Jaouab
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Hugo San → Carlos Clerc
5th Substitution
Event
Taisei Miyashiro → Ale García
3rd Substitution
66'
65'
Event
Amath Ndiaye → Víctor Meseguer
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Juanmi Latasa → Lucas Sanseviero
1st Substitution
Event
Estanis Pedrola
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
56'
50'
Event
Clément Michelin
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
32'
Event
Julien Ponceau
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Jesé
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
2'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Taisei Miyashiro takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Iker Bravo Solanilla takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Juanmi Latasa attempts a header but misses the shot.
89
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Tomeo's shot with another body part is saved.
88
Attempt Attempt
Amath Ndiaye Diedhiou takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
85
Update Update
Ivan Gil is on, and Manuel Fuster is off.
85
Update Update
Juanma Herzog comes on for Enrique Clemente.
85
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Gil's right-footed shot is blocked.
84
Attempt Attempt
Iker Bravo Solanilla takes a left-footed shot but misses.
80
Update Update
Stipe Biuk scores with a header.
79
Attempt Attempt
Amath Ndiaye Diedhiou takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
74
Update Update
Ibrahim Alani replaces Julien Ponceau.
74
Update Update
Ibrahim Alani comes on for Julien Ponceau.
70
Update Update
Ramon Martinez comes on for Mohamed Jaouab.
70
Update Update
Hugo Modesto comes on for Carlos Clerc Martinez.
69
Attempt Attempt
Manuel Fuster takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Attempt Attempt
Stipe Biuk takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Update Update
Taisei Miyashiro comes on for Alejandro Garcia Mejias.
65
Update Update
Juanmi Latasa comes on for Lucas Sanseviero.
65
Update Update
Amath Ndiaye Diedhiou comes on for Victor Meseguer.
58
Attempt Attempt
Mathis Lachuer's left-footed shot is blocked.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Estanis Pedrola scores, making it 2-0.
56
Attempt Attempt
Estanis Pedrola takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
52
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Sanseviero takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Manuel Fuster's right-footed shot is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Alejandro Garcia Mejias takes a right-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Kirian Rodriguez Concepcion takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Alejandro Garcia Mejias takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Jese Rodriguez Ruiz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
2
Attempt Attempt
Jese Rodriguez Ruiz takes a shot with his right foot and scores.

CONCLUSION

Las Palmas' 2-1 triumph over Real Valladolid underscores their structural edge, with minimal 5.3% deviation and full market alignment validating the result. Efficiency held steady in line with norms, while missing xG data shifts focus to possession dominance at 56% yielding the win. Absence of red cards and events preserved a clean contest, highlighting disciplined execution. This outcome bolsters Las Palmas' standing, demonstrating reliable conversion of control into victory without reliance on anomalies or disruptions.

Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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