Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
KSK Nika Sat, 2 May - 12:00 PM
Premier League
Oleksandria Oleksandria
0 Winner 3
Kolos Kovalivka Kolos Kovalivka
Full Time Sat, 2 May 12:00 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
|
Goal
Daniil Khrypchuk - 86'
Oleksandr Demchenko - 40'
Daniil Denysenko - 24'

CONTEXT

Oleksandria hosted Kolos Kovalivka in a match that ended 0-3 in favor of the visitors. Kolos Kovalivka took control early, leading 2-0 at halftime with two well-taken goals, and sealed the win with a third in the second half. Despite Oleksandria enjoying 52% possession compared to Kolos's 48%, the home side failed to convert their territorial advantage into scoring chances. Kolos Kovalivka, identified as the stronger team pre-match, demonstrated superior finishing and defensive solidity throughout. No red cards were shown, and there were no major tactical adjustments noted in the second half. The result represented a significant structural deviation of 55.7% towards Kolos Kovalivka, aligning with market expectations where they held the edge.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kolos Kovalivka experienced a significant 55.7% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable as data was not recorded.
  • Event impact: No key events significantly altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, so no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Reznikov

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Telbukh

4th Official

E. Petrakov

1st Assistant

O. Hirs

2nd Assistant

Oleksandria V. Sharan
V. Sharan
VS
Kolos Kovalivka R. Kostyshyn
R. Kostyshyn
0.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.71
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 46 D
Veres Rank: 47 L
Karpaty Rank: 53 L
SK Poltava Rank: 34 D
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Poltava Rank: 33 W
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 W
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 45 D
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 52 D
Veres Rank: 48 W
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 53 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 4 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Oleksandria
25.32%
Draw
30.43%
Away Kolos Kovalivka
44.25%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
43.17
54.7
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Oleksandria
Kolos Kovalivka
Power Score
43.17
54.7
League Position
15
6
Global Rank
949
652

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Oleksandria — Opponent-weighted form score
Kolos Kovalivka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Oleksandria Kolos Kovalivka

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Oleksandria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kolos Kovalivka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Oleksandria ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kolos Kovalivka
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
14.90
23.96
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.96
14.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Oleksandria -0.92 Efficiency Index
vs
Kolos Kovalivka +0.92 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Oleksandria
Kolos Kovalivka
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Oleksandria ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kolos Kovalivka
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Oleksandria Kolos Kovalivka
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Oleksandria Kolos Kovalivka
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Oleksandria
Kolos Kovalivka
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Oleksandria
vs
Kolos Kovalivka
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Oleksandria Kolos Kovalivka
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Oleksandria 0.17
Kolos Kovalivka 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Oleksandria Kolos Kovalivka
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Oleksandria 0.10
Kolos Kovalivka 0.00
Oleksandria
Kolos Kovalivka
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Oleksandria had peak pressure around 13'.
  • Oleksandria started the game with stronger pressure.
Oleksandria Pressure Kolos Kovalivka Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Oleksandria reached the top pressure at 13' (79.63).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 14 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Oleksandria Oleksandria Home
14 matches
Kolos Kovalivka Kolos Kovalivka Away
Match Record
6
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
6
Goals
19
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
19
+5
Goal Difference
-5

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:02:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
V. Dolgyi
Ukraine
1 V. Dolgyi
B. Butko
Ukraine
91 B. Butko
M. Ferreira Campos
Portugal
26 M. Ferreira Campos
A. Bol
Substitution
Ukraine
86 A. Bol
M. Ogarkov
Ukraine
23 M. Ogarkov
J. da Silva
Substitution
44 J. da Silva
D. Myshnov
Substitution
Ukraine
9 D. Myshnov
S. Buletsa
Ukraine
10 S. Buletsa
D. Vashchenko
Ukraine
20 D. Vashchenko
B. Castillo Rosendo
Venezuela
99 B. Castillo Rosendo
P. Yade
Substitution
Senegal
37 P. Yade
Pitch
I. Pakholyuk
Ukraine
31 I. Pakholyuk
A. Tsurikov
Ukraine
9 A. Tsurikov
M. Burda
Ukraine
6 M. Burda
E. Kozik
Ukraine
3 E. Kozik
A. Ponedelnik
Ukraine
77 A. Ponedelnik
O. Demchenko
Substitution
Ukraine
7 O. Demchenko
E. Trevizan Telles
Brazil
55 E. Trevizan Telles
D. Denysenko
Substitution
47 D. Denysenko
A. Salabay
Ukraine
17 A. Salabay
A. Tahiri
Kosovo
11 A. Tahiri
I. Kane
Substitution
Mali
14 I. Kane

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium :
KSK Nika
Capacity :
7000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Denis Reznikov
Lyudmila Telbukh
Evgen Petrakov
Oleksii Hirs

Statistics

Possession
Oleksandria
49%
Kolos Kovalivka
51%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
5 Shots 1
35 Dangerous attacks 30
52 Possession 48
8 Corners 3
5 Free kicks 3
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

61 Attacks 76

Defensive

1 Saves 0

Discipline

4 Fouls 5
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Denis Reznikov

Starting XI ▼

1
Viktor Dolgyi
Viktor Dolgyi Goalkeeper
6.16
23
Mykola Ogarkov
Mykola Ogarkov Defender
6.13
26
Miguel Campos
Miguel Campos Defender
6.37
86
Anton Bol
Anton Bol Defender
6.14
97
Nazar Prokopenko
Nazar Prokopenko
Defender46'
6.5
91
Bogdan Butko
Bogdan Butko Defender
6.31
9
Dmytro Myshnyov
Dmytro Myshnyov Midfielder
6.42
49
Mateus Amaral
Mateus Amaral
Midfielder46'
6.63
10
Sergiy Buletsa
Sergiy Buletsa Midfielder
6.42
20
Daniil Vashchenko
Daniil Vashchenko Midfielder
6.27
37
Papa Ndiaga Yade
Papa Ndiaga Yade Midfielder
6.58
24
Hussayn Touati
Hussayn Touati
Midfielder63'
6.45
44
Jhonnatan Silva
Jhonnatan Silva Midfielder
6.54
27
Tedi Cara
Tedi Cara
Midfielder46'
6.46
99
Bryan Castillo
Bryan Castillo Attacker
6.5
Referee : Denis Reznikov

Starting XI ▼

31
Ivan Pakholyuk
Ivan Pakholyuk Goalkeeper
6.39
3
Eduard Kozik
Eduard Kozik Defender
6.47
6
Mykyta Burda
Mykyta Burda Defender
6.52
9
Andriy Tsurikov
Andriy Tsurikov Defender
6.47
77
Andriy Ponedelnik
Andriy Ponedelnik Defender
6.5
7
Oleksandr Demchenko
Oleksandr Demchenko Midfielder
6.5
45
Daniil Khrypchuk
Daniil Khrypchuk
Defender86'
6.73
14
Ibrahim Kane
Ibrahim Kane Midfielder
6.59
15
Artem Gusol
Artem Gusol
Midfielder72'
6.6
17
Anton Salabay
Anton Salabay Midfielder
6.65
47
Daniil Denysenko
Daniil Denysenko Midfielder
6.69
99
Arinaldo Rrapaj
Arinaldo Rrapaj
Midfielder72'
6.37
55
Elias
Elias Midfielder
6.64
11
Ardit Tahiri
Ardit Tahiri Attacker
6.65

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
8th Substitution
86'
86'
Event
Daniil Khrypchuk → Oleksandr Demchenko
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Daniil Khrypchuk
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
86'
Event
9th Substitution
72'
Event
Artem Gusol → Ibrahim Kane
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Arinaldo Rrapaj → Daniil Denysenko
6th Substitution
Event
Hussayn Touati → Papa Ndiaga Yade
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Mateus Amaral → Dmytro Myshnyov
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Tedi Cara → Jhonnatan Silva
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Nazar Prokopenko → Anton Bol
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Bryan Castillo
1st Yellowcard
43'
43'
Event
Anton Salabay
3rd Yellowcard
43'
Event
Eduard Kozik
2nd Yellowcard
40'
Event
Oleksandr Demchenko
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
24'
Event
Daniil Denysenko
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

86
Update Update
Mauro Rodrigues is on, and Bohdan Butko is off.
85
Update Update
Daniil Khrypchuk comes on for Oleksandr Demchenko.
85
Update Update
Zakharii is on for Tahiri.
72
Update Update
Arinaldo Rrapaj comes on for Danill Denisenko.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Artem Gusol comes on for Ibrahim Kane.
63
Update Update
Hussayn Touati comes on for Papa Ndiaga Yade.
46
Update Update
Nazar Vitaliiovych Prokopenko comes on for Anton Bol.
46
Update Update
Mateus Ferreira replaces Dmytro Myshnov.
46
Update Update
Tedi Cara is on, and Jhonnatan is off.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Anton Salabai receives a yellow card.
24
Update Update
Goal! Danill Denisenko scores to make it 1-0.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is D. Reznikov.

CONCLUSION

Kolos Kovalivka's 0-3 triumph over Oleksandria underscores their pre-match superiority, converting limited possession into a decisive victory. Leading 2-0 at halftime, they maintained composure to add a third goal, exposing Oleksandria's wastefulness despite higher ball control. This result, marked by a 55.7% structural deviation and full market alignment, highlights Kolos's clinical edge in finishing and organization. Without disruptions like red cards, the performance reflects genuine quality, positioning Kolos favorably in the standings while Oleksandria must address their inefficiency.

Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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