Swansea City vs Charlton Athletic Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Swansea.com Stadium Sat, 2 May - 11:30 AM
Championship
Swansea City SWA
3 Winner 1
Charlton Athletic CHA
Full Time Sat, 2 May 11:30 AM
Round 46 Regular Season
Leo Walta - 88'
Adam Idah - 82', 74'
Goal
|
Goal
Miles Leaburn - 79'

CONTEXT

Swansea City claimed a 3-1 home victory against Charlton Athletic, overcoming a goalless first half to dominate proceedings. Despite holding 71% possession throughout, the hosts struggled to convert early chances, leaving the scoreline level at 0-0 at halftime. The second half erupted as Swansea unleashed three goals, capitalizing on their superior control while Charlton managed a consolation strike. As the pre-designated stronger team, Swansea's performance reflected their expected edge, though a moderate 12% structural deviation highlighted some inefficiencies in chance creation. No red cards marred the contest, allowing a fluid match that showcased Swansea's tactical discipline and attacking prowess. Charlton's 29% possession limited their threats, underscoring the gulf in quality. This result reinforces Swansea's promotion credentials in a competitive league.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Swansea City showed a moderate 12% structural deviation in their dominant performance.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevents alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome diverged from pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to absent metrics.
  • Event impact: No major events like red cards altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

W. Finnie

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Nelson

1st Assistant

N. Hopton

2nd Assistant

R. Martin

4th Official

Swansea City V. Emanuel Soares Matos
V. Emanuel Soares Matos
VS
Charlton Athletic N. Jones
N. Jones
1.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.03
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Norwich City Rank: 73 D
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 W
Southampton Rank: 77 L
Leicester City Rank: 67 W
Middlesbrough Rank: 73 D
Sheffield United Rank: 70 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hull City Rank: 70 W
Ipswich Town Rank: 76 L
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 53 D
Preston North End Rank: 66 L
Watford Rank: 63 D
Bristol City Rank: 69 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Swansea City
87.99%
Draw
11.08%
Away Charlton Athletic
0.93%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.11
60.54
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Swansea City
Charlton Athletic
Power Score
70.11
60.54
League Position
11
19
Global Rank
200
313

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Swansea City — Opponent-weighted form score
Charlton Athletic — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Swansea City Charlton Athletic

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Swansea City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Charlton Athletic

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Swansea City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Charlton Athletic
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.69
45.69
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
45.69
31.69
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Swansea City -1.42 Efficiency Index
vs
Charlton Athletic +1.42 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Swansea City
Charlton Athletic
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Swansea City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Charlton Athletic
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Swansea City Charlton Athletic
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Swansea City Charlton Athletic
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Swansea City
Charlton Athletic
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Swansea City
vs
Charlton Athletic
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Swansea City Charlton Athletic
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Swansea City 0.40
Charlton Athletic 0.48
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Swansea City Charlton Athletic
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Swansea City 0.04
Charlton Athletic 0.06
Swansea City
Charlton Athletic
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SWA had peak pressure around 56'.
  • SWA started the game with stronger pressure.
SWA Pressure CHA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SWA reached the top pressure at 56' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Swansea City SWA Home
5 matches
Charlton Athletic CHA Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
5
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:02:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Fisher
England
1 A. Fisher
J. Key
Substitution
England
2 J. Key
B. Cabango
Wales
5 B. Cabango
C. Burgess
Australia
15 C. Burgess
J. Tymon
England
14 J. Tymon
G. Franco
Portugal
17 G. Franco
M. Stamenic
Substitution
New Zealand
6 M. Stamenic
R. Pereira Martins
Brazil
35 R. Pereira Martins
L. Cullen
Substitution
Wales
20 L. Cullen
M. Widell
Substitution
Sweden
7 M. Widell
Ž. Vipotnik
Substitution
Slovenia
9 Ž. Vipotnik
Pitch
T. Kaminski
Belgium
1 T. Kaminski
M. Gillesphey
England
3 M. Gillesphey
L. Jones
England
5 L. Jones
R. Burke
Substitution
England
32 R. Burke
L. Chambers
England
19 L. Chambers
C. Coventry
Republic of Ireland
6 C. Coventry
C. Coady
Substitution
England
15 C. Coady
H. Clarke
England
44 H. Clarke
J. Fevrier
Substitution
England
77 J. Fevrier
H. Knibbs
Substitution
England
41 H. Knibbs
L. Dykes
Substitution
Scotland
99 L. Dykes

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 46 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Swansea.com Stadium
Capacity :
20827
Attendance :
19245
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alistair Nelson
Nicholas Hopton
Will Finnie
Ross Martin

Statistics

Possession
SWA
64%
CHA
36%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 3
50 Dangerous attacks 25
71 Possession 29
10 Corners 4
14 Free kicks 5

Match Overview

83 Ball Safe 72
2 Assists 1
24 Throwins 18
20 Successful Dribbles Percentage 80
1 Injuries 0
10 Goal Attempts 4
15 Successful Headers 19
5 Dribble Attempts 5
1 Successful Dribbles 4
5 Substitutions 5
5 Goal Kicks 6

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
106 Attacks 69

Possession

14 Key Passes 10
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
23 Successful Long Passes 24
57 Long Passes 48
543 Successful Passes 169
88 Successful Passes Percentage 69
620 Passes 244

Defensive

34 Duels Won 38
8 Interceptions 3
7 Tackles 11
2 Saves 5

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 8
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

5 Fouls 14
4 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Will Finnie

Starting XI ▼

1
Andy Fisher
Andy Fisher Goalkeeper
6.55
2
Josh Key
Josh Key Defender
6.66
25
Joel Ward
Joel Ward
Defender78'
6.51
5
Ben Cabango
Ben Cabango Defender
6.9
14
Josh Tymon
Josh Tymon Defender
6.97
15
Cameron Burgess
Cameron Burgess Defender
6.96
6
Marko Stamenić
Marko Stamenić Midfielder
6.8
4
Jay Fulton
Jay Fulton
Midfielder46'
6.66
7
Melker Widell
Melker Widell Midfielder
6.63
21
Leo Walta
Leo Walta
Midfielder36'
6.63
17
Gonçalo Franco
Gonçalo Franco Midfielder
6.9
20
Liam Cullen
Liam Cullen Midfielder
6.68
33
Adam Idah
Adam Idah
Attacker65'
2
6.67
35
Ronald
Ronald Midfielder
6.77
9
Zan Vipotnik
Zan Vipotnik Attacker
7.05
44
Thomas Woodward
Thomas Woodward
Midfielder77'
6.74
Referee : Will Finnie

Starting XI ▼

1
Thomas Kaminski
Thomas Kaminski Goalkeeper
6.88
3
Macaulay Gillesphey
Macaulay Gillesphey Defender
6.69
5
Lloyd Jones
Lloyd Jones Defender
7.12
32
Reece Burke
Reece Burke Defender
6.61
11
Miles Leaburn
Miles Leaburn
Attacker60'
6.76
6
Conor Coventry
Conor Coventry Midfielder
6.72
15
Conor Coady
Conor Coady Midfielder
6.83
14
Sonny Carey
Sonny Carey
Midfielder61'
6.89
19
Luke Chambers
Luke Chambers Midfielder
6.65
44
Harry Clarke
Harry Clarke Midfielder
6.72
41
Harvey Knibbs
Harvey Knibbs Attacker
6.6
8
Luke Berry
Luke Berry
Midfielder75'
6.55
77
Jayden Fevrier
Jayden Fevrier Attacker
6.76
26
Joe Rankin-Costello
Joe Rankin-Costello
Midfielder60'
6.74
99
Lyndon Dykes
Lyndon Dykes Attacker
6.64
23
Charlie Kelman
Charlie Kelman
Attacker78'
6.66

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Leo Walta
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
88'
Event
Adam Idah
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
82'
79'
Event
Miles Leaburn
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Joel Ward → Josh Key
10th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Charlie Kelman → Lyndon Dykes
9th Substitution
Event
Thomas Woodward → Zan Vipotnik
8th Substitution
77'
75'
Event
Luke Berry → Harvey Knibbs
7th Substitution
Event
Adam Idah
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
74'
Event
Adam Idah → Liam Cullen
6th Substitution
65'
61'
Event
Sonny Carey → Conor Coady
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Joe Rankin-Costello → Jayden Fevrier
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Miles Leaburn → Reece Burke
4th Substitution
Event
Jay Fulton → Marko Stamenić
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Leo Walta → Melker Widell
1st Substitution
36'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Adam Idah takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
90
Attempt Attempt
Adam Idah takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
90
Attempt Attempt
Miles Leaburn takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Leo Walta scores with a right-footed shot.
86
Update Update
Benjamin Cabango's header is blocked.
83
Attempt Attempt
Joe Rankin-Costello takes a right-footed shot but misses.
82
Attempt Attempt
Adam Idah takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
82
Update Update
Goal! Adam Idah scores to make it 2-1, assisted by Thomas Woodward.
79
Attempt Attempt
Luke Chambers takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
79
Update Update
Miles Leaburn scores with a header.
79
Update Update
Goal! Miles Leaburn scores, bringing the match to 1-1.
78
Update Update
Charlie Kelman replaces Lyndon Dykes.
78
Update Update
Joel Ward is on, and Josh Key is off.
77
Attempt Attempt
Luke Berry attempts a header but misses the shot.
77
Substitution Substitution
Thomas Woodward is substituted for Zan Vipotnik.
75
Substitution Substitution
Luke Berry is substituted for Harvey Knibbs.
74
Attempt Attempt
Adam Idah takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
72
Attempt Attempt
Ronald Pereira Martins takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Sonny Carey takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Josh Tymon's left-footed shot is saved.
65
Update Update
Adam Idah replaces Liam Cullen.
64
Attempt Attempt
Sonny Carey takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Miles Leaburn attempts a header but misses the shot.
61
Update Update
Sonny Carey replaces Conor Coady.
60
Update Update
Miles Leaburn replaces Reece Burke.
60
Update Update
Joe Rankin-Costello replaces Jayden Fevrier.
59
Attempt Attempt
Jay Fulton takes a right-footed shot but misses.
59
Attempt Attempt
Jay Fulton takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Burgess takes a header, but it's saved.
49
Attempt Attempt
Liam Cullen takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Goncalo Baptista Franco takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Attempt Attempt
Leo Walta's right-footed shot is saved.
46
Update Update
Jay Fulton replaces Marko Stamenic.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jayden Fevrier takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Goncalo Baptista Franco takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Liam Cullen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Goncalo Baptista Franco takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Substitution Substitution
Leo Walta is substituted for Melker Widell.
28
Attempt Attempt
Harry Clarke takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Jayden Fevrier's left-footed shot is saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Ronald Pereira Martins takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Burgess takes a right-footed shot but misses.
20
Attempt Attempt
Zan Vipotnik takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Swansea City's 3-1 triumph over Charlton Athletic validates their status as the stronger side, with commanding possession translating into second-half dominance after a cautious opening period. The moderate deviation suggests room for sharper finishing, yet their victory aligns with underlying strengths despite market misalignment. Charlton's resilience faded post-interval, exposing defensive frailties. This performance bolsters Swansea's momentum, emphasizing tactical adaptability and squad depth as key to climbing the table. Without disruptions, the result feels a fair reflection of the quality gap.

Swansea City vs Charlton Athletic preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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