Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Deutsche Bank Park Sat, 2 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
Eintracht Frankfurt SGE
1 Winner 2
Hamburger SV HSV
Full Time Sat, 2 May 1:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Can Uzun - 48'
Goal
|
Goal
Fábio Vieira - 59'
Albert Grønbæk - 51'
Rasmus Kristensen 90+12' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Eintracht Frankfurt hosted Hamburger SV in a match that ended 1-2 in favor of the visitors, marking a surprising outcome. The game was goalless at halftime with both teams level at 0-0. Frankfurt, considered the stronger side, controlled possession at 64% compared to HSV's 36%, yet they conceded two goals while scoring once. A red card to a Frankfurt player altered the contest significantly, especially in the second half, allowing HSV to exploit their numerical superiority. This result defied pre-match structural expectations where Frankfurt held a clear edge. The deviation was substantial at 78.5%, highlighting HSV's opportunistic play despite lower possession and favoritism towards the home team. Frankfurt's discipline faltered, turning dominance into defeat.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hamburger SV showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: The home red card had a major impact on the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion primarily influenced second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Aytekin

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Leicher

1st Assistant

T. Schultes

2nd Assistant

L. Erbst

4th Official

Eintracht Frankfurt A. Riera Ortega
A. Riera Ortega
VS
Hamburger SV M. Polzin
M. Polzin
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Augsburg Rank: 76 D
RB Leipzig Rank: 86 L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 74 W
FC Köln Rank: 75 D
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 80 L
Heidenheim Rank: 73 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 83 L
Werder Bremen Rank: 74 L
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 85 L
FC Augsburg Rank: 78 D
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 90 L
FC Köln Rank: 75 D
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 10 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Eintracht Frankfurt
55.8%
Draw
22.66%
Away Hamburger SV
21.54%

Movement

Changes since opening
Eintracht Frankfurt
+55.61%
Draw
+16.25%
Hamburger SV
-71.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
79.99
63.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Eintracht Frankfurt
Hamburger SV
Power Score
79.99
63.38
League Position
7
11
Global Rank
59
95

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Eintracht Frankfurt — Opponent-weighted form score
Hamburger SV — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Eintracht Frankfurt Hamburger SV

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Eintracht Frankfurt

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hamburger SV

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Eintracht Frankfurt ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hamburger SV
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.81
30.14
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.14
17.81
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Eintracht Frankfurt -1.11 Efficiency Index
vs
Hamburger SV +1.11 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Eintracht Frankfurt
Hamburger SV
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Eintracht Frankfurt ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hamburger SV
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Eintracht Frankfurt Hamburger SV
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Eintracht Frankfurt Hamburger SV
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Eintracht Frankfurt
Hamburger SV
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Eintracht Frankfurt
vs
Hamburger SV
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Eintracht Frankfurt Hamburger SV
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Eintracht Frankfurt 0.12
Hamburger SV 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Eintracht Frankfurt Hamburger SV
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Eintracht Frankfurt 0.05
Hamburger SV 0.01
Eintracht Frankfurt
Hamburger SV
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SGE had peak pressure around 41'.
  • HSV started the game with stronger pressure.
SGE Pressure HSV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SGE reached the top pressure at 41' (66.82).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Eintracht Frankfurt SGE Home
25 matches
Hamburger SV HSV Away
Match Record
8
Wins
7
10
Draws
10
7
Losses
8
Goals
33
Goals Scored
31
31
Goals Conceded
33
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:03:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-5-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
M. Zetterer
Germany
23 M. Zetterer
A. Amenda
Switzerland
5 A. Amenda
E. Skhiri
Substitution
Tunisia
15 E. Skhiri
R. Koch
Germany
4 R. Koch
N. Brown
Germany
21 N. Brown
A. Knauff
Substitution
Germany
7 A. Knauff
C. Uzun
Türkiye
42 C. Uzun
H. Larsson
Substitution
Sweden
16 H. Larsson
O. Højlund
Substitution
Denmark
6 O. Højlund
A. Muinga
France
25 A. Muinga
J. Burkardt
Substitution
Germany
9 J. Burkardt
Pitch
D. Heuer Fernandes
Portugal
1 D. Heuer Fernandes
W. Omari
France
17 W. Omari
J. Torunarigha
Substitution
Nigeria
25 J. Torunarigha
N. Capaldo
Argentina
24 N. Capaldo
A. Erlykke
Substitution
Denmark
23 A. Erlykke
A. Sambi Lokonga
Substitution
Belgium
6 A. Sambi Lokonga
N. Remberg
Germany
21 N. Remberg
B. Jatta
Substitution
Gambia
18 B. Jatta
R. Königsdörffer
Ghana
11 R. Königsdörffer
R. Glatzel
Substitution
Germany
9 R. Glatzel
F. Ferreira Vieira
Portugal
20 F. Ferreira Vieira

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Deutsche Bank Park
Capacity :
58000
Attendance :
59500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Christian Leicher
Tobias Schultes
Lars Erbst
Deniz Aytekin

Statistics

Possession
SGE
60%
HSV
40%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 1
1 Shots 3
68 Dangerous attacks 37
64 Possession 36
9 Corners 4
5 Free kicks 13
6 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
5 Goal Kicks 7
16 Dribble Attempts 16
23 Throwins 11
8 Successful Dribbles 6
18 Successful Headers 14
0 Hit Woodwork 1
78 Ball Safe 73
7 Goal Attempts 7
1 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 5

Attacking

105 Attacks 73
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

503 Passes 294
86 Successful Passes Percentage 81
69 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
35 Successful Long Passes 20
51 Long Passes 46
434 Successful Passes 237
5 Key Passes 5

Defensive

51 Duels Won 47
20 Tackles 15
8 Interceptions 8
2 Saves 4

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 8
2 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

13 Fouls 5
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Deniz Aytekin

Starting XI ▼

23
Michael Zetterer
Michael Zetterer Goalkeeper
6.88
4
Robin Koch
Robin Koch Defender
6.95
5
Aurèle Amenda
Aurèle Amenda Defender
6.74
15
Ellyes Skhiri
Ellyes Skhiri Defender
6.59
13
Rasmus Kristensen
Rasmus Kristensen
Defender61'
6.89
21
Nathaniel Brown
Nathaniel Brown Defender
6.93
6
Oscar Højlund
Oscar Højlund Midfielder
6.56
8
Farès Chaïbi
Farès Chaïbi
Midfielder61'
7.01
7
Ansgar Knauff
Ansgar Knauff Midfielder
6.72
29
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab
Attacker82'
6.7
16
Hugo Larsson
Hugo Larsson Midfielder
6.82
11
Younes Ebnoutalib
Younes Ebnoutalib
Attacker82'
6.42
25
Arnaud Kalimuendo
Arnaud Kalimuendo Midfielder
6.9
42
Can Uzun
Can Uzun Midfielder
7.05
9
Jonathan Burkardt
Jonathan Burkardt Attacker
6.96
19
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya
Attacker61'
6.99
Referee : Deniz Aytekin

Starting XI ▼

1
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
Daniel Heuer Fernandes Goalkeeper
6.87
17
Warmed Omari
Warmed Omari Defender
6.64
24
Nicolás Capaldo
Nicolás Capaldo Defender
6.81
25
Jordan Torunarigha
Jordan Torunarigha Defender
6.81
15
Yussuf Poulsen
Yussuf Poulsen
Attacker83'
6.71
6
Albert Sambi Lokonga
Albert Sambi Lokonga Midfielder
6.89
8
Daniel Elfadli
Daniel Elfadli
Midfielder79'
6.62
18
Bakery Jatta
Bakery Jatta Midfielder
6.64
16
Giorgi Gocholeishvili
Giorgi Gocholeishvili
Defender68'
6.52
21
Nicolai Remberg
Nicolai Remberg Midfielder
6.87
23
Albert Grønbæk
Albert Grønbæk Midfielder
6.67
44
Luka Vuskovic
Luka Vuskovic
Defender78'
7.2
9
Robert Glatzel
Robert Glatzel Attacker
6.71
19
Damion Downs
Damion Downs
Attacker68'
6.58
11
Ransford Königsdörffer
Ransford Königsdörffer Attacker
6.72
20
Fábio Vieira
Fábio Vieira Attacker
7.12

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Rasmus Kristensen
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+12'
Event
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+10'
Event
Can Uzun
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
88'
88'
Event
Nicolás Capaldo
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Arnaud Kalimuendo
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
85'
83'
Event
Yussuf Poulsen → Jordan Torunarigha
10th Substitution
Event
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab → Ansgar Knauff
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Younes Ebnoutalib → Hugo Larsson
8th Substitution
82'
79'
Event
Daniel Elfadli → Albert Sambi Lokonga
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Luka Vuskovic → Albert Grønbæk
6th Substitution
Event
Rasmus Kristensen
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
71'
68'
Event
Damion Downs → Robert Glatzel
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Giorgi Gocholeishvili → Bakery Jatta
5th Substitution
Event
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya → Jonathan Burkardt
1st Substitution
61'
Event
Farès Chaïbi → Oscar Højlund
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Rasmus Kristensen → Ellyes Skhiri
3rd Substitution
61'
59'
Event
Fábio Vieira
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Oscar Højlund
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
52'
51'
Event
Albert Grønbæk
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Can Uzun
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
48'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rasmus Nissen Kristensen receives a second yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Younes Ebnoutalib takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jean Matteo Bahoya takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jean Matteo Bahoya receives a yellow card.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicolas Capaldo receives a yellow card.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Can Yilmaz Uzun.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Arnaud Kalimuendo.
83
Update Update
Yussuf Yurary Poulsen is on, and Jordan Torunarigha is off.
82
Update Update
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab comes on for Ansgar Knauff.
82
Update Update
Younes Ebnoutalib comes on for Hugo Emanuel Larsson.
79
Update Update
Daniel Elfadli is on, and Albert-Mboyo Sambi Lokonga is off.
78
Update Update
Luka Vuskovic comes on for Albert Gronbaek.
74
Attempt Attempt
Fares Chaibi's right-footed shot is blocked.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Rasmus Nissen Kristensen.
68
Update Update
Giorgi Gocholeishvili comes on for Bakery Jatta.
68
Update Update
Damion Downs replaces Robert-Nesta Glatzel.
61
Update Update
Fares Chaibi replaces Oscar Hojlund.
61
Update Update
Rasmus Nissen Kristensen replaces Ellyes Skhiri.
61
Update Update
Jean Matteo Bahoya replaces Jonathan Michael Burkardt.
59
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Vieira scores with a left-footed shot.
55
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Capaldo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Albert Gronbaek takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Oscar Hojlund.
51
Attempt Attempt
Albert Gronbaek takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
43
Update Update
Jonathan Michael Burkardt's header is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Michael Burkardt attempts a header but misses the shot.
39
Attempt Attempt
Can Yilmaz Uzun takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
38
Attempt Attempt
Can Yilmaz Uzun takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Vieira's left-footed shot is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Bakery Jatta takes a left-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Vieira takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
26
Attempt Attempt
Albert-Mboyo Sambi Lokonga takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Can Yilmaz Uzun takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
5
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Vieira's right-footed shot is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Hamburger SV pulled off a remarkable 2-1 victory at Eintracht Frankfurt, overcoming 64% possession deficit and a red card disadvantage for the hosts. Frankfurt's expulsion shifted momentum decisively, enabling HSV to score twice post-halftime in a previously even 0-0 affair. This significant deviation underscores how disciplinary lapses can upend stronger teams' plans. HSV's efficiency in limited chances proved decisive, misaligning with expectations. For Frankfurt, the loss highlights vulnerability to numerical inferiority despite dominance. HSV gains crucial points, boosting morale, while Frankfurt must address defensive discipline ahead.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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