FC Bayern München vs Heidenheim Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Allianz Arena Sat, 2 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
FC Bayern München FCB
3 – 3
Heidenheim HDH
Full Time Sat, 2 May 1:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Michael Olise - 90+10'
Leon Goretzka - 57', 44'
Goal
|
Goal
Budu Zivzivadze - 76', 22'
Eren Dinkçi - 31'

CONTEXT

FC Bayern München's Bundesliga aspirations suffered a dramatic blow in a pulsating 3-3 draw against underdogs Heidenheim at the Allianz Arena. Trailing 2-1 at halftime, Bayern roared back with their trademark possession dominance, holding 75% of the ball throughout. Yet Heidenheim's opportunistic counterattacks and stout defending frustrated the hosts, who equalized late but couldn't find a winner. This result marks a stunning turnaround, as the visitors punched way above their weight despite minimal control. Bayern's inability to convert superiority into points highlights ongoing vulnerabilities, especially after recent inconsistencies. Heidenheim's heroic stand not only earns a valuable point but boosts morale sky-high. The draw intensifies pressure on Bayern's title defense amid a congested schedule.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant 85.5% structural deviation occurred against FC Bayern München's favoritism.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match projections for both sides.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable match data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment failed as the draw contradicted strong home expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without recorded metrics.
  • Event impact: No key events or adjustments influenced the final outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Willenborg

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Schüller

2nd Assistant

E. Müller

1st Assistant

P. Schwengers

4th Official

FC Bayern München V. Kompany
V. Kompany
VS
Heidenheim F. Schmidt
F. Schmidt
2.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.77
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 80 W
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 86 W
St. Pauli Rank: 73 W
SC Freiburg Rank: 82 W
FC Union Berlin Rank: 73 W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 90 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Pauli Rank: 72 W
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 75 W
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 76 D
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 90 D
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Bayern München
73.1%
Draw
14.5%
Away Heidenheim
12.4%

Movement

Changes since opening
FC Bayern München
+72.83%
Draw
+5.81%
Heidenheim
-78.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
100
72.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Bayern München
Heidenheim
Power Score
100
72.52
League Position
1
18
Global Rank
1
148

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Bayern München — Opponent-weighted form score
Heidenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Bayern München Heidenheim

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Bayern München

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Heidenheim

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Bayern München ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Heidenheim
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.80
53.80
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
53.80
35.80
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Bayern München -1.57 Efficiency Index
vs
Heidenheim +1.57 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Bayern München
Heidenheim
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Bayern München ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Heidenheim
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Bayern München Heidenheim
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Bayern München Heidenheim
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC Bayern München
Heidenheim
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FC Bayern München
vs
Heidenheim
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FC Bayern München Heidenheim
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FC Bayern München 0.30
Heidenheim 0.41
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC Bayern München Heidenheim
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FC Bayern München 0.10
Heidenheim 0.04
FC Bayern München
Heidenheim
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCB had peak pressure around 58'.
  • FCB started the game with stronger pressure.
FCB Pressure HDH Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCB reached the top pressure at 58' (96.13).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Bayern München FCB Home
5 matches
Heidenheim HDH Away
Match Record
4
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
4
Goals
18
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
18
+11
Goal Difference
-11

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:03:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
J. Urbig
Germany
40 J. Urbig
J. Stanisic
Substitution
Croatia
44 J. Stanisic
M. Kim
South Korea
3 M. Kim
J. Tah
Substitution
Germany
4 J. Tah
H. Ito
Japan
21 H. Ito
A. Pavlović
Substitution
Germany
45 A. Pavlović
B. Sapoko Ndiaye
Substitution
Senegal
39 B. Sapoko Ndiaye
K. Laimer
Austria
27 K. Laimer
L. Goretzka
Germany
8 L. Goretzka
N. Jackson
Senegal
11 N. Jackson
J. Musiala
Substitution
Germany
10 J. Musiala
Pitch
D. Ramaj
Germany
41 D. Ramaj
J. Föhrenbach
Germany
19 J. Föhrenbach
P. Mainka
Germany
6 P. Mainka
M. Busch
Germany
2 M. Busch
H. Behrens
Germany
26 H. Behrens
N. Dorsch
Substitution
Germany
30 N. Dorsch
J. Schöppner
Germany
3 J. Schöppner
E. Dinkci
Germany
8 E. Dinkci
A.Ibrahimovic
Substitution
Germany
22 A.Ibrahimovic
B. Zivzivadze
Substitution
Georgia
11 B. Zivzivadze
M. Pieringer
Substitution
Germany
18 M. Pieringer

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Allianz Arena
Capacity :
75024
Attendance :
75000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Markus Schüller
Eric Müller
Patrick Schwengers
Frank Willenborg

Statistics

Possession
FCB
69%
HDH
31%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 3
7 Shots 5
77 Dangerous attacks 29
75 Possession 25
13 Corners 5
7 Free kicks 6
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

16 Successful Dribbles 2
6 Successful Headers 11
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
121 Ball Safe 90
15 Throwins 13
24 Dribble Attempts 7
3 Goal Kicks 9
1 Assists 3
12 Goal Attempts 8
3 Hit Woodwork 0
6 Substitutions 4
0 Injuries 2

Attacking

145 Attacks 55
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

677 Passes 227
13 Key Passes 11
89 Successful Passes Percentage 68
18 Successful Long Passes 18
26 Long Passes 49
69 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
605 Successful Passes 154

Defensive

35 Duels Won 38
2 Saves 4
8 Interceptions 11
7 Tackles 19

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 1
30 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
6 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Frank Willenborg

Starting XI ▼

40
Jonas Urbig
Jonas Urbig Goalkeeper
6.9
3
Min-jae Kim
Min-jae Kim Defender
7.07
4
Jonathan Tah
Jonathan Tah Defender
7.06
19
Alphonso Davies
Alphonso Davies
Defender77'
6.8
21
Hiroki Ito
Hiroki Ito Defender
6.81
44
Josip Stanisic
Josip Stanisic Defender
7.03
14
Luis Díaz
Luis Díaz
Attacker46'
7.51
8
Leon Goretzka
Leon Goretzka Midfielder
2
7.09
27
Konrad Laimer
Konrad Laimer Midfielder
6.99
39
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye Midfielder
6.81
9
Harry Kane
Harry Kane
Attacker46'
7.9
45
Aleksandar Pavlovic
Aleksandar Pavlovic Midfielder
7.13
6
Joshua Kimmich
Joshua Kimmich
Midfielder46'
7.67
10
Jamal Musiala
Jamal Musiala Attacker
6.98
17
Michael Olise
Michael Olise
Midfielder46'
7.8
11
Nicolas Jackson
Nicolas Jackson Attacker
6.87
Referee : Frank Willenborg

Starting XI ▼

41
Diant Ramaj
Diant Ramaj Goalkeeper
6.82
2
Marnon Busch
Marnon Busch Defender
6.75
6
Patrick Mainka
Patrick Mainka Defender
6.99
19
Jonas Föhrenbach
Jonas Föhrenbach Defender
6.63
3
Jan Schöppner
Jan Schöppner Midfielder
6.53
8
Eren Dinkçi
Eren Dinkçi Midfielder
6.75
26
Hennes Behrens
Hennes Behrens Midfielder
6.89
30
Niklas Dorsch
Niklas Dorsch Midfielder
6.74
4
Tim Siersleben
Tim Siersleben
Defender89'
6.66
11
Budu Zivzivadze
Budu Zivzivadze Attacker
2
6.64
29
Mikkel Kaufmann
Mikkel Kaufmann
Attacker81'
6.66
18
Marvin Pieringer
Marvin Pieringer Attacker
6.82
9
Stefan Schimmer
Stefan Schimmer
Attacker77'
6.72
22
Arijon Ibrahimovic
Arijon Ibrahimovic Attacker
6.87
20
Luca Kerber
Luca Kerber
Midfielder81'
6.55

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Michael Olise
6th Goal
90+10'
90'
Event
Marnon Busch
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Tim Siersleben → Niklas Dorsch
9th Substitution
Event
Konrad Laimer
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
85'
81'
Event
Mikkel Kaufmann → Budu Zivzivadze
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Luca Kerber → Arijon Ibrahimovic
8th Substitution
Event
Alphonso Davies → Jonathan Tah
5th Substitution
77'
77'
Event
Stefan Schimmer → Marvin Pieringer
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Budu Zivzivadze
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Jonathan Tah
3rd Yellowcard
72'
Event
Leon Goretzka
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
57'
Event
Luis Díaz → Josip Stanisic
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Harry Kane → Bara Sapoko Ndiaye
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Joshua Kimmich → Aleksandar Pavlovic
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Michael Olise → Jamal Musiala
4th Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Nicolas Jackson
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
45'
45'
Event
Diant Ramaj
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Leon Goretzka
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
44'
31'
Event
Eren Dinkçi
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
22'
Event
Budu Zivzivadze
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marnon Busch receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Kim Min-Jae's header is blocked.
90
Update Update
Own goal! Diant Ramaj scores, bringing the match to 3-3.
90
Attempt Attempt
Michael Olise takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Update Update
Goal! Michael Olise scores to make it 3-3, assisted by Alphonso Davies.
89
Update Update
Tim Siersleben replaces Niklas Dorsch.
87
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Jackson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Konrad Laimer receives a yellow card.
81
Update Update
Luca Kerber comes on for Arijon Ibrahimovic.
81
Update Update
Mikkel Kaufmann Sorensen comes on for Budu Zivzivadze.
79
Attempt Attempt
Leon Goretzka takes a right-footed shot but misses.
78
Update Update
Alphonso Davies is on, and Jonathan Glao Tah is off.
77
Update Update
Stefan Schimmer replaces Marvin Pieringer.
76
Attempt Attempt
Michael Olise takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
76
Attempt Attempt
Budu Zivzivadze takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
74
Attempt Attempt
Luis Fernando Diaz Marulanda takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Michael Olise's left-footed shot is blocked.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Jonathan Glao Tah.
69
Attempt Attempt
Budu Zivzivadze takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
68
Attempt Attempt
Eren Dinkci's right-footed shot is saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Joshua Kimmich takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Attempt Attempt
Jan Schoppner's right-footed shot is blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
Joshua Kimmich takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
65
Attempt Attempt
Michael Olise takes a left-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Hennes Behrens takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Mainka's header is saved.
57
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Jackson's right-footed shot is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Leon Goretzka takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
56
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Jackson's right-footed shot is blocked.
55
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Jackson takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Luis Fernando Diaz Marulanda takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
46
Update Update
Luis Fernando Diaz Marulanda is on, and Josip Stanisic is off.
46
Substitution Substitution
Harry Kane is substituted off for Bara Ndiaye.
46
Update Update
Michael Olise is on, and Jamal Musiala is off.
46
Update Update
Joshua Kimmich comes on, and Aleksandar Pavlovic goes off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jamal Musiala takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicolas Jackson receives a yellow card.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Diant Ramaj receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Jackson's right-footed shot is blocked.
44
Update Update
Goal! Leon Goretzka scores, making it 1-2.
44
Attempt Attempt
Leon Goretzka takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
37
Attempt Attempt
Eren Dinkci's right-footed shot is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Leon Goretzka takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Leon Goretzka takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
31
Update Update
Goal! Eren Dinkci scores, making it 0-2.
31
Attempt Attempt
Eren Dinkci scores with a right-footed shot.
27
Attempt Attempt
Eren Dinkci takes a right-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Budu Zivzivadze scores with a left-footed shot.
20
Attempt Attempt
Hiroki Ito takes a left-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Mainka attempts a header but misses the shot.
13
Attempt Attempt
Marnon Busch takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Leon Goretzka takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandar Pavlovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

This 3-3 thriller underscores Heidenheim's remarkable grit, holding Bayern to a draw despite 25% possession and flipping the halftime 1-2 deficit. Bayern's dominance failed to yield victory, exposing conversion issues that could haunt their campaign. The visitors' clinical edges in both halves neutralized the hosts' pressure, turning expected dominance into shared spoils. For Bayern, dropped points at home amplify rivals' opportunities in the title race. Heidenheim gains massive confidence, proving small teams can unsettle giants through discipline and opportunism. Both squads shift focus to upcoming fixtures with renewed narratives.

FC Bayern München vs Heidenheim preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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