Brentford vs West Ham United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Gtech Community Stadium Sat, 2 May - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Brentford BRE
3 Winner 0
West Ham United WHU
Full Time Sat, 2 May 2:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Mikkel Damsgaard - 82'
Igor Thiago - 54' (P)
Konstantinos Mavropanos - 15' (Own Goal)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Brentford secured a convincing 3-0 victory over West Ham United at home, defying the pre-designated stronger team status of the visitors. The hosts led 1-0 at halftime and added two more goals in the second half to seal the win. Possession was tightly contested, with Brentford holding 48% compared to West Ham's 52%, indicating a balanced midfield battle. No red cards were issued, allowing the game to flow without major disciplinary disruptions. This result marked a significant structural deviation of 50.1% in Brentford's favor, highlighting their clinical finishing despite even possession stats. Market expectations aligned with the outcome, as pre-match probabilities favored Brentford slightly. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with norms, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. Brentford's second-half adjustments were minimal, yet effective in extending their lead.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Brentford's 3-0 win showed a significant structural deviation of 50.1% from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment verification.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market probabilities favoring Brentford.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No notable second-half adjustments or events altered the game's flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Pawson

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Betts

1st Assistant

M. Wilkes

2nd Assistant

A. Madley

4th Official

Brentford K. Andrews
K. Andrews
VS
West Ham United N. Simões Espírito Santo
N. Simões Espírito Santo
1.46
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.28
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Manchester United Rank: 90 L
Fulham Rank: 85 D
Everton Rank: 88 D
Leeds United Rank: 87 D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 79 D
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 89 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Everton Rank: 87 W
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 81 W
Aston Villa Rank: 91 L
Manchester City Rank: 98 D
Fulham Rank: 86 W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 2 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Brentford
49.9%
Draw
24.62%
Away West Ham United
25.48%

Movement

Changes since opening
Brentford
-44.76%
Draw
+20.46%
West Ham United
+24.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.48
83.35
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Brentford
West Ham United
Power Score
72.48
83.35
League Position
6
17
Global Rank
18
43

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Brentford — Opponent-weighted form score
West Ham United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Brentford West Ham United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Brentford

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

West Ham United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Brentford ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy West Ham United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.96
28.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.56
33.96
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Brentford +0.61 Efficiency Index
vs
West Ham United -0.61 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Brentford
West Ham United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Brentford ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy West Ham United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Brentford West Ham United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Brentford West Ham United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Brentford
West Ham United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Brentford
vs
West Ham United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Brentford West Ham United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Brentford 0.30
West Ham United 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Brentford West Ham United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Brentford 0.00
West Ham United 0.07
Brentford
West Ham United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • WHU had peak pressure around 49'.
  • BRE started the game with stronger pressure.
BRE Pressure WHU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: WHU reached the top pressure at 49' (84.20).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Brentford BRE Home
11 matches
West Ham United WHU Away
Match Record
7
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
7
Goals
19
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
19
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:03:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Pitch
C. Kelleher
Republic of Ireland
1 C. Kelleher
M. Kayode
Italy
33 M. Kayode
S. van den Berg
Netherlands
4 S. van den Berg
N. Collins
Republic of Ireland
22 N. Collins
K. Lewis-Potter
Substitution
England
23 K. Lewis-Potter
Y. Yarmoliuk
Ukraine
18 Y. Yarmoliuk
M. Jensen
Denmark
8 M. Jensen
Dango Ouattara
Substitution
Burkina Faso
19 Dango Ouattara
M. Damsgaard
Substitution
Denmark
24 M. Damsgaard
K. Schade
Substitution
Germany
7 K. Schade
Thiago
Brazil
9 Thiago
Pitch
M. Hermansen
Denmark
1 M. Hermansen
E. Diouf
Substitution
Senegal
12 E. Diouf
A. Disasi
France
4 A. Disasi
K. Mavropanos
Greece
15 K. Mavropanos
K. Walker-Peters
Substitution
England
2 K. Walker-Peters
C. Summerville
Substitution
Netherlands
7 C. Summerville
M. Espanha Fernandes
Portugal
18 M. Espanha Fernandes
T. Souček
Czech Republic
28 T. Souček
J. Bowen
Substitution
England
20 J. Bowen
P. Pereira de Jesus
Portugal
19 P. Pereira de Jesus
V. Castellanos Giménez
Substitution
Argentina
11 V. Castellanos Giménez

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Gtech Community Stadium
Capacity :
17250
Attendance :
17194
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Craig Pawson
Lee Betts
Matthew Wilkes
Andy Madley

Statistics

Possession
BRE
49%
WHU
51%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 4
46 Dangerous attacks 37
48 Possession 52
2 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

17 Successful Headers 19
19 Throwins 22
23 Dribble Attempts 14
11 Goal Kicks 11
26 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
64 Ball Safe 67
6 Successful Dribbles 6
10 Goal Attempts 14
1 Hit Woodwork 4
1 Penalties 0
4 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
2 Injuries 1

Attacking

90 Attacks 93
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

22 Successful Long Passes 27
257 Successful Passes 266
50 Long Passes 56
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
79 Successful Passes Percentage 78
326 Passes 341
8 Key Passes 13

Defensive

19 Tackles 25
4 Saves 4
53 Duels Won 56
4 Interceptions 8

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 21
5 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

8 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Craig Pawson

Starting XI ▼

1
Caoimhín Kelleher
Caoimhín Kelleher Goalkeeper
6.86
4
Sepp van den Berg
Sepp van den Berg Defender
6.87
22
Nathan Collins
Nathan Collins Defender
6.86
23
Keane Lewis-Potter
Keane Lewis-Potter Defender
6.67
2
Aaron Hickey
Aaron Hickey
Defender90+1'
6.49
33
Michael Kayode
Michael Kayode Defender
6.82
7
Kevin Schade
Kevin Schade Midfielder
6.85
20
Kristoffer Ajer
Kristoffer Ajer
Defender80'
6.63
8
Mathias Jensen
Mathias Jensen Midfielder
6.91
18
Yegor Yarmolyuk
Yegor Yarmolyuk Midfielder
6.68
19
Dango Ouattara
Dango Ouattara Midfielder
6.82
47
Kaye Furo
Kaye Furo
Attacker90'
6.45
24
Mikkel Damsgaard
Mikkel Damsgaard Midfielder
6.89
10
Josh Dasilva
Josh Dasilva
Midfielder90+1'
6.38
9
Igor Thiago
Igor Thiago Attacker
7.11
Referee : Craig Pawson

Starting XI ▼

1
Mads Hermansen
Mads Hermansen Goalkeeper
6.83
2
Kyle Walker-Peters
Kyle Walker-Peters Defender
6.73
29
Aaron Wan-Bissaka
Aaron Wan-Bissaka
Defender65'
6.73
4
Axel Disasi
Axel Disasi Defender
6.81
12
El Hadji Malick Diouf
El Hadji Malick Diouf Defender
6.72
17
Adama Traoré
Adama Traoré
Attacker74'
6.58
15
Konstantinos Mavropanos
Konstantinos Mavropanos Defender
6.98
7
Crysencio Summerville
Crysencio Summerville Midfielder
6.86
30
Oliver Scarles
Oliver Scarles
Defender88'
6.65
18
Mateus Fernandes
Mateus Fernandes Midfielder
7.04
20
Jarrod Bowen
Jarrod Bowen Midfielder
7.01
27
Soungoutou Magassa
Soungoutou Magassa
Midfielder88'
6.67
28
Tomáš Souček
Tomáš Souček Midfielder
6.76
11
Taty Castellanos
Taty Castellanos Attacker
6.79
9
Callum Wilson
Callum Wilson
Attacker65'
6.68
19
Pablo
Pablo Attacker
6.74

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Oliver Scarles
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Josh Dasilva → Mikkel Damsgaard
8th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Aaron Hickey → Keane Lewis-Potter
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Kaye Furo → Dango Ouattara
7th Substitution
90'
88'
Event
Soungoutou Magassa → Jarrod Bowen
5th Substitution
88'
Event
Oliver Scarles → Crysencio Summerville
6th Substitution
Event
Mikkel Damsgaard
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
82'
Event
Kristoffer Ajer → Kevin Schade
4th Substitution
80'
74'
Event
Adama Traoré → El Hadji Malick Diouf
3rd Substitution
Event
Michael Kayode
Simulation / 3rd Yellowcard
73'
65'
Event
Aaron Wan-Bissaka → Kyle Walker-Peters
1st Substitution
65'
Event
Callum Wilson → Taty Castellanos
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Crysencio Summerville
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
Event
Taty Castellanos
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Igor Thiago
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
54'
1ST-HALF
22'
Event
Konstantinos Mavropanos
Goal disallowed
Event
Konstantinos Mavropanos
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
15'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Oliver Scarles receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Soucek takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Update Update
Kaye Furo is on, and Dango Ouattara is off.
90
Update Update
Josh Da Silva replaces Mikkel Damsgaard.
90
Update Update
Aaron Hickey replaces Keane Lewis-Potter.
90
Attempt Attempt
Yegor Yarmolyuk takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Update Update
Soungoutou Magassa replaces Jarrod Bowen.
88
Update Update
Oliver Scarles is on, and Crysencio Summerville is off.
82
Attempt Attempt
Mikkel Damsgaard takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
80
Update Update
Kristoffer Ajer comes on for Kevin Schade.
77
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Soucek takes a left-footed shot but misses.
77
Attempt Attempt
Crysencio Summerville takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
74
Update Update
Adama Traore Diarra comes on for El Hadji Malick Diouf.
73
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Michael Kayode receives a yellow card.
65
Update Update
Aaron Wan-Bissaka replaces Kyle Walker-Peters.
65
Update Update
Callum Wilson is on, and Valentin Mariano Castellanos Gimenez is off.
63
Attempt Attempt
Sepp Van Den Berg's header is saved.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Crysencio Summerville receives a yellow card.
61
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Jensen's right-footed shot is blocked.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Valentin Mariano Castellanos Gimenez receives a yellow card.
58
Attempt Attempt
Dango Ouattara takes a left-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues scores with a right-footed shot.
52
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues scores, making it 2-0.
50
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus attempts a header but misses the shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Mariano Castellanos Gimenez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Mariano Castellanos Gimenez attempts a header but misses the shot.
44
Attempt Attempt
El Hadji Malick Diouf takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Crysencio Summerville takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Sepp Van Den Berg attempts a header but misses the shot.
36
Attempt Attempt
Jarrod Bowen takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Keane Lewis-Potter takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Keane Lewis-Potter takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
35
Attempt Attempt
Keane Lewis-Potter takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Mariano Castellanos Gimenez takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
28
Attempt Attempt
Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
23
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Konstantinos Mavropanos, and it's a header into the goal!
18
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Mariano Castellanos Gimenez attempts a header but misses the shot.
17
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Mariano Castellanos Gimenez takes a right-footed shot, but it hits the post.
15
Update Update
Own goal by Konstantinos Mavropanos gives the lead, making it 1-0.
7
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
1
Attempt Attempt
Dango Ouattara takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Brentford's 3-0 triumph over West Ham United underscored their home strength, converting a narrow halftime lead into a dominant scoreline without relying on superior possession. The significant 50.1% structural deviation emphasized Brentford's overperformance relative to the stronger-labeled visitors. With market alignment confirmed and efficiencies steady, the result reflected sound execution rather than anomalies. Lack of xG data limits shot quality insights, but the clean sheet and multi-goal margin signal defensive solidity paired with opportunistic attack. This performance positions Brentford favorably in the standings, while West Ham must address finishing woes exposed in the loss.

Brentford vs West Ham United preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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