Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Sunderland Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Molineux Stadium Sat, 2 May - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Wolverhampton Wanderers WOL
1 – 1
Sunderland SUN
Full Time Sat, 2 May 2:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Santiago Bueno - 54'
Goal
|
Goal
Nordi Mukiele - 17'
|
Red Card Dan Ballard 24'

CONTEXT

Wolverhampton Wanderers welcomed Sunderland to Molineux, ending in a 1-1 draw. Sunderland, deemed the stronger team, opened the scoring to lead 0-1 at halftime despite Wolves holding 58% possession overall. The second half saw Wolves equalize, capitalizing on their territorial dominance, while Sunderland coped with a red card that reduced them to 10 men. The visitors' 42% possession did not hinder their defensive solidity, securing a point. This result constitutes a significant structural deviation of 73%, attributed to Sunderland's resilience. Efficiency shifts stayed in line with norms, though xG data absence prevents precise shot quality assessment. The red card introduced notable distortion in proceedings, altering second-half dynamics and preventing a decisive outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed significant structural deviation of 73% for Sunderland.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment false, indicating outcome mismatch.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: Red card to Sunderland created key event impact in second half.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion listed as primary second-half adjustment.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Tierney

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. West

1st Assistant

S. Ledger

2nd Assistant

S. Allison

4th Official

Wolverhampton Wanderers R. Edwards
R. Edwards
VS
Sunderland R. Le Bris
R. Le Bris
0.63
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.16
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 82 L
Leeds United Rank: 86 L
West Ham United Rank: 82 L
Brentford Rank: 89 D
Liverpool Rank: 93 W
Aston Villa Rank: 91 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nottingham Forest Rank: 85 L
Aston Villa Rank: 91 L
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 83 W
Newcastle United Rank: 89 W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 L
Leeds United Rank: 87 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 3 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Wolverhampton Wanderers
25.72%
Draw
27.01%
Away Sunderland
47.28%

Movement

Changes since opening
Wolverhampton Wanderers
+20.21%
Draw
-63.88%
Sunderland
+43.68%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.87
80.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Sunderland
Power Score
65.87
80.8
League Position
20
12
Global Rank
64
56

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Wolverhampton Wanderers — Opponent-weighted form score
Sunderland — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Wolverhampton Wanderers Sunderland

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sunderland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Wolverhampton Wanderers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sunderland
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.00
29.52
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.52
40.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Wolverhampton Wanderers +1.14 Efficiency Index
vs
Sunderland -1.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Sunderland
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Wolverhampton Wanderers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sunderland
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Wolverhampton Wanderers Sunderland
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Wolverhampton Wanderers Sunderland
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Sunderland
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Wolverhampton Wanderers
vs
Sunderland
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Wolverhampton Wanderers Sunderland
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.31
Sunderland 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Wolverhampton Wanderers Sunderland
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.02
Sunderland 0.02
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Sunderland
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • WOL had peak pressure around 57'.
  • WOL started the game with stronger pressure.
WOL Pressure SUN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: WOL reached the top pressure at 57' (98.52).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Wolverhampton Wanderers WOL Home
11 matches
Sunderland SUN Away
Match Record
4
Wins
4
3
Draws
3
4
Losses
4
Goals
14
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
14
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:04:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Bentley
England
25 D. Bentley
Y. Mosquera
Colombia
15 Y. Mosquera
S. Bueno Sciutto
Uruguay
4 S. Bueno Sciutto
T. Gomes
Portugal
24 T. Gomes
P. Cardoso de Lima
Substitution
Brazil
17 P. Cardoso de Lima
A. Trindade da Costa Neto
Brazil
7 A. Trindade da Costa Neto
Gomes
Brazil
8 Gomes
H. Bueno
Substitution
Spain
3 H. Bueno
M. Mané
England
36 M. Mané
A. Armstrong
England
9 A. Armstrong
T. Arokodare
Substitution
Nigeria
14 T. Arokodare
Pitch
R. Roefs
Netherlands
22 R. Roefs
R. Mandava
Substitution
Mozambique
17 R. Mandava
O. Alderete Fernández
Paraguay
15 O. Alderete Fernández
D. Ballard
Northern Ireland
5 D. Ballard
N. Mukiele Mulere
France
20 N. Mukiele Mulere
N. Sadiki
Substitution
Belgium
27 N. Sadiki
G. Xhaka
Switzerland
34 G. Xhaka
C. Talbi
Belgium
7 C. Talbi
E. Le Fée
France
28 E. Le Fée
T. Hume
Northern Ireland
32 T. Hume
B. Brobbey
Substitution
Netherlands
9 B. Brobbey

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Molineux Stadium
Capacity :
32050
Attendance :
29632
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Paul Tierney
Richard West
Scott Ledger
Samuel Allison

Statistics

Possession
WOL
56%
SUN
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 3
64 Dangerous attacks 48
58 Possession 42
6 Corners 3
10 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 13
14 Throwins 16
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
5 Successful Dribbles 4
9 Dribble Attempts 9
22 Successful Headers 16
1 Assists 1
92 Ball Safe 86
12 Goal Attempts 5
3 Substitutions 3

Attacking

97 Attacks 92
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

25 Successful Long Passes 30
86 Successful Passes Percentage 76
41 Long Passes 58
61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
433 Passes 323
15 Key Passes 8
374 Successful Passes 246

Defensive

12 Tackles 17
50 Duels Won 48
5 Interceptions 8
1 Saves 6

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 16
11 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

11 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Paul Tierney

Starting XI ▼

25
Daniel Bentley
Daniel Bentley Goalkeeper
6.42
4
Santiago Bueno
Santiago Bueno Defender
6.75
15
Yerson Mosquera
Yerson Mosquera Defender
6.76
24
Toti
Toti Defender
6.55
3
Hugo Bueno
Hugo Bueno Midfielder
6.73
47
Angel Gomes
Angel Gomes
Midfielder78'
6.73
7
André
André Midfielder
6.74
8
João Gomes
João Gomes Midfielder
6.8
17
Pedro Lima
Pedro Lima Midfielder
6.37
21
Rodrigo Gomes
Rodrigo Gomes
Defender46'
6.68
9
Adam Armstrong
Adam Armstrong Attacker
6.67
14
Tolu Arokodare
Tolu Arokodare Attacker
6.68
74
Tom Edozie
Tom Edozie
Attacker90+3'
6.85
36
Mateus Mané
Mateus Mané Attacker
6.71
Referee : Paul Tierney

Starting XI ▼

22
Robin Roefs
Robin Roefs Goalkeeper
6.95
5
Dan Ballard
Dan Ballard Defender
6.97
15
Omar Alderete
Omar Alderete Defender
6.85
17
Reinildo Mandava
Reinildo Mandava Defender
6.71
3
Dennis Cirkin
Dennis Cirkin
Defender72'
6.58
20
Nordi Mukiele
Nordi Mukiele Defender
6.97
7
Chemsdine Talbi
Chemsdine Talbi Midfielder
6.64
27
Noah Sadiki
Noah Sadiki Midfielder
6.7
19
Habib Diarra
Habib Diarra
Midfielder72'
6.7
28
Enzo Le Fée
Enzo Le Fée Midfielder
6.93
32
Trai Hume
Trai Hume Midfielder
6.77
34
Granit Xhaka
Granit Xhaka Midfielder
7.1
9
Brian Brobbey
Brian Brobbey Attacker
6.68
18
Wilson Isidor
Wilson Isidor
Attacker72'
6.65

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Tom Edozie → Tolu Arokodare
6th Substitution
90+3'
90+2'
Event
Robin Roefs
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Dennis Cirkin
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Angel Gomes → Hugo Bueno
5th Substitution
78'
72'
Event
Habib Diarra → Noah Sadiki
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Dennis Cirkin → Reinildo Mandava
2nd Substitution
72'
Event
Wilson Isidor → Brian Brobbey
4th Substitution
56'
Event
Granit Xhaka
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Santiago Bueno
Header / 2nd Goal
54'
Event
Rodrigo Gomes → Pedro Lima
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Brian Brobbey
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
24'
Event
Dan Ballard
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
23'
Event
Dan Ballard
Card adjusted
17'
Event
Nordi Mukiele
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Tolu Arokodare takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Robin Roefs receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Tom Edozie is on, and Tolu Arokodare is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Nordi Mukiele's left-footed shot is saved.
87
Attempt Attempt
Habib Diarra takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Update Update
Tolu Arokodare's header is blocked.
83
Attempt Attempt
Andre Trindade da Costa Neto takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
82
Attempt Attempt
Adam Armstrong's header is saved.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dennis Cirkin receives a yellow card.
79
Attempt Attempt
Habib Diarra's right-footed shot is blocked.
78
Substitution Substitution
Adilson Angel Abreu de Almeida Gomes is substituted off for H. Santiago Ignacio Bueno Sciutto.
76
Attempt Attempt
Habib Diarra takes a right-footed shot but misses.
74
Attempt Attempt
Granit Xhaka takes a left-footed shot but misses.
72
Update Update
Wilson Isidor replaces Brian Brobbey.
72
Update Update
Habib Diarra is on, and Noah Sadiki is off.
72
Update Update
Dennis Cirkin replaces Reinildo Mandava.
71
Attempt Attempt
Mateus Mane's left-footed shot is saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Yerson Mosquera takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Attempt Attempt
Trai Hume's right-footed shot is blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Chemsdine Talbi has a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Granit Xhaka receives a yellow card.
54
Update Update
Santiago Ignacio Bueno Sciutto scores with a header.
52
Attempt Attempt
Yerson Mosquera takes a right-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Adam Armstrong takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
49
Attempt Attempt
Yerson Mosquera attempts a header but misses the shot.
48
Attempt Attempt
Adam Armstrong's left-footed shot is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Joao Victor Gomes da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Update Update
Rodrigo Martins Gomes replaces Pedro Lima.
45
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Ignacio Bueno Sciutto attempts a header but misses the shot.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Brian Brobbey receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Ignacio Bueno Sciutto attempts a header but misses the shot.
43
Update Update
Tolu Arokodare's header is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Tolu Arokodare attempts a header but misses the shot.
39
Attempt Attempt
Tolu Arokodare's header is saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Toti Gomes takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
Andre Trindade da Costa Neto takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Mateus Mane takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Chemsdine Talbi's right-footed shot is saved.
24
Red Card Red Card Important
Daniel Ballard receives a red card.
23
Update Update
VAR decision results in a card change for Daniel Ballard.
21
Attempt Attempt
Noah Sadiki's right-footed shot is blocked.
17
Update Update
Nordi Mukiele scores with a header.
16
Attempt Attempt
Brian Brobbey takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw encapsulates Sunderland's grit despite a halftime lead turning into a numerical disadvantage via red card. Wolves' 58% possession yielded only parity, underscoring conversion challenges. As the stronger side, Sunderland's point registers as significant 73% deviation, with efficiency in line but xG voids limiting analysis. Red card distortion reshaped the contest, fostering caution and neutralizing home pressure. This outcome denies either team full reward, maintaining competitive balance in standings while highlighting event-driven variability in results.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Sunderland preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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