Westerlo vs OH Leuven Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Het Kuipje Sat, 2 May - 2:00 PM
Pro League
Westerlo KVC
3 – 3
OH Leuven OHL
Full Time Sat, 2 May 2:00 PM
Round 6 Conference League Play-off Group
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh - 68' (P), 50'
Isa Sakamoto - 52'
Goal
|
Goal
Kyan Vaesen - 41'
Wouter George - 15'
Abdoul Karim Traoré - 10'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Westerlo 3–3 OH Leuven. The match ended in a draw. Westerlo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 52%–48%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Westerlo recorded a significant 75% structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with established expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market predictions did not align with the draw outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for assessment.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

W. De Cremer

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

W. Cochet

1st Assistant

G. De Beuckelaer

2nd Assistant

J. Vitse

4th Official

Westerlo I. Charai
I. Charai
VS
OH Leuven F. Mazzù
F. Mazzù
1.43
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.13
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antwerp Rank: 70 L
OH Leuven Rank: 66 W
Genk Rank: 76 L
Standard Liège Rank: 69 W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 71 W
Standard Liège Rank: 69 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 69 L
Westerlo Rank: 71 L
Antwerp Rank: 68 L
Genk Rank: 77 D
Standard Liège Rank: 69 L
Antwerp Rank: 72 W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 5 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Westerlo
48.63%
Draw
24.97%
Away OH Leuven
26.4%

Movement

Changes since opening
Westerlo
+43.1%
Draw
-65.41%
OH Leuven
+22.31%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.76
64.61
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Westerlo
OH Leuven
Power Score
70.76
64.61
League Position
9
12
Global Rank
185
342

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Westerlo — Opponent-weighted form score
OH Leuven — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Westerlo OH Leuven

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Westerlo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

OH Leuven

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Westerlo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy OH Leuven
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.98
23.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.44
27.98
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Westerlo +0.43 Efficiency Index
vs
OH Leuven -0.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Westerlo
OH Leuven
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Westerlo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy OH Leuven
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Westerlo OH Leuven
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Westerlo OH Leuven
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Westerlo
OH Leuven
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Westerlo
vs
OH Leuven
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Westerlo OH Leuven
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Westerlo 0.24
OH Leuven 0.40
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Westerlo OH Leuven
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Westerlo 0.12
OH Leuven 0.06
Westerlo
OH Leuven
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KVC had peak pressure around 74'.
  • OHL started the game with stronger pressure.
KVC Pressure OHL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KVC reached the top pressure at 74' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Westerlo KVC Home
17 matches
OH Leuven OHL Away
Match Record
7
Wins
5
5
Draws
5
5
Losses
7
Goals
22
Goals Scored
23
23
Goals Conceded
22
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:04:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Jungdal
Denmark
99 A. Jungdal
S. Kimura
Japan
5 S. Kimura
R. Neustädter
Substitution
Russia
33 R. Neustädter
A. Lapage
Belgium
4 A. Lapage
B. Reynolds
United States
22 B. Reynolds
D. Haspolat
Netherlands
34 D. Haspolat
A. Piedfort
Substitution
Belgium
46 A. Piedfort
A. Sayyadmanesh
Iran
7 A. Sayyadmanesh
S. Saito
Substitution
38 S. Saito
I. Ferri Julià
Substitution
Spain
90 I. Ferri Julià
I. Sakamoto
Substitution
Japan
13 I. Sakamoto
Pitch
T. Leysen
Belgium
1 T. Leysen
T. Akimoto
Japan
30 T. Akimoto
R. Nyakossi
Switzerland
34 R. Nyakossi
E. Pletinckx
Belgium
28 E. Pletinckx
H. Teklab
Germany
14 H. Teklab
Ł. Łakomy
Substitution
Poland
24 Ł. Łakomy
W. George
Substitution
Belgium
6 W. George
Ó. Gil Regaño
Spain
27 Ó. Gil Regaño
A. Traoré
Substitution
9 A. Traoré
K. Vaesen
Substitution
Belgium
17 K. Vaesen
S. Kaba
Substitution
Guinea
39 S. Kaba

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 6 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium :
Het Kuipje
Capacity :
8182
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Wouter Cochet
Gilles De Beuckelaer
Jasper Vitse
Wesli De Cremer

Statistics

Possession
KVC
52%
OHL
48%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
4 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 4
51 Dangerous attacks 25
52 Possession 48
4 Corners 3
16 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

11 Goal Attempts 7
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
17 Throwins 10
7 Goal Kicks 12
72 Ball Safe 93
6 Successful Dribbles 8
10 Dribble Attempts 12
1 Assists 3
5 Substitutions 9
2 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Penalties 0

Attacking

91 Attacks 71
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

81 Successful Passes Percentage 79
322 Successful Passes 291
8 Key Passes 8
32 Successful Long Passes 22
62 Long Passes 62
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
399 Passes 370

Defensive

49 Duels Won 36
6 Interceptions 10
11 Tackles 11
1 Saves 2

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 12
8 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
9 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : Wesli De Cremer

Starting XI ▼

99
Andreas Jungdal
Andreas Jungdal Goalkeeper
6.88
4
Amando Lapage
Amando Lapage Defender
7.08
5
Seiji Kimura
Seiji Kimura Defender
6.8
33
Roman Neustädter
Roman Neustädter Defender
6.79
23
Lucas Mbamba
Lucas Mbamba
Defender46'
6.54
7
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh Midfielder
2
6.93
22
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds Midfielder
6.72
34
Doğucan Haspolat
Doğucan Haspolat Midfielder
7.25
46
Arthur Piedfort
Arthur Piedfort Midfielder
7.02
10
Afonso Patrão
Afonso Patrão
Attacker46'
6.61
13
Isa Sakamoto
Isa Sakamoto Attacker
6.79
39
Thomas Van den Keybus
Thomas Van den Keybus
Midfielder79'
6.62
38
Shunsuke Saito
Shunsuke Saito Attacker
6.75
8
Sergiy Sydorchuk
Sergiy Sydorchuk
Midfielder90'
6.51
90
Nacho Ferri
Nacho Ferri Attacker
7.1
29
Fernand Goure
Fernand Goure
Attacker90'
6.47
Referee : Wesli De Cremer

Starting XI ▼

1
Tobe Leysen
Tobe Leysen Goalkeeper
7
28
Ewoud Pletinckx
Ewoud Pletinckx Defender
6.84
30
Takahiro Akimoto
Takahiro Akimoto Defender
6.86
34
Roggerio Nyakossi
Roggerio Nyakossi Defender
6.83
6
Wouter George
Wouter George Midfielder
6.63
48
Bryang Kayo
Bryang Kayo
Midfielder79'
6.72
14
Henok Teklab
Henok Teklab Midfielder
6.75
24
Lukasz Lakomy
Lukasz Lakomy Midfielder
6.82
8
Siebe Schrijvers
Siebe Schrijvers
Midfielder69'
7.01
27
Óscar Gil
Óscar Gil Midfielder
6.59
9
Abdoul Karim Traoré
Abdoul Karim Traoré Attacker
6.51
80
Matteo Heremans
Matteo Heremans
Midfielder46'
6.02
17
Kyan Vaesen
Kyan Vaesen Attacker
6.58
10
Youssef Maziz
Youssef Maziz
Midfielder76'
6.98
39
Sory Kaba
Sory Kaba Attacker
6.85
19
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Attacker69'
6.68

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Fernand Goure → Nacho Ferri
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Sergiy Sydorchuk → Shunsuke Saito
10th Substitution
90'
85'
Event
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Thomas Van den Keybus → Isa Sakamoto
8th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Bryang Kayo → Wouter George
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Óscar Gil
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Youssef Maziz → Kyan Vaesen
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Siebe Schrijvers → Lukasz Lakomy
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi → Sory Kaba
4th Substitution
Event
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
68'
Event
Shunsuke Saito
Simulation / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Isa Sakamoto
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
52'
Event
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
Header / 4th Goal
50'
Event
Lucas Mbamba → Roman Neustädter
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Afonso Patrão → Arthur Piedfort
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Matteo Heremans → Abdoul Karim Traoré
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Kyan Vaesen
Var
41'
Event
Kyan Vaesen
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
20'
Event
Lukasz Lakomy
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Arthur Piedfort
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
18'
15'
Event
Wouter George
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
10'
Event
Abdoul Karim Traoré
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Serhiy Sydorchuk comes on for Shunsuke Saito.
90
Update Update
Bi Irie Fernand Goure replaces Nacho Ferri.
88
Update Update
Seiji Kimura takes a header, but it goes wide.
82
Attempt Attempt
Nacho Ferri's header is saved.
79
Substitution Substitution
Thomas Van den Keybus is substituted for Isa Sakamoto.
79
Update Update
Bryang Kayo is on, and Wouter George is off.
76
Update Update
Youssef Maziz is on, and Kyan Vaesen is off.
72
Attempt Attempt
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh takes a right-footed shot, but it misses.
69
Update Update
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi replaces Sory Kaba.
69
Update Update
Siebi Schrijvers comes on for Lukasz Lakomy.
68
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Allahyar Sayyadmanesh scores, bringing the tally to 3-3.
68
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Allahyar Sayyadmanesh with his right foot results in a goal.
66
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Reynolds takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
63
Attempt Attempt
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh takes a left-footed shot, but it hits the post.
62
Attempt Attempt
Dogucan Haspolat takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
57
Attempt Attempt
Nacho Ferri's header is saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh takes a shot with another body part but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Nacho Ferri attempts a header but misses the shot.
52
Attempt Attempt
Isa Sakamoto scores with a left-footed shot.
50
Update Update
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh scores with a header.
46
Update Update
Lucas Mbamba-Muanda replaces Roman Neustadter.
46
Attempt Attempt
Kyan Vaesen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Afonso Patrao comes on for Arthur Piedfort.
45
Update Update
VAR decision: the goal is disallowed for offside against Kyan Vaesen.
43
Attempt Attempt
Abdoul Karim Traore takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Kyan Vaesen scores with a right-footed shot.
35
Attempt Attempt
Abdoul Karim Traore takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Lukasz Lakomy takes a left-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Henok Teklab takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Wouter George takes a left-footed shot but misses.
20
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lukasz Lakomy receives a yellow card.
15
Attempt Attempt
Wouter George scores with a right-footed shot.
10
Attempt Attempt
Abdoul Karim Traore takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Wesli De Cremer.
1
Attempt Attempt
Henok Teklab takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Westerlo exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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