Dundee vs St. Mirren Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park Sat, 2 May - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Dundee DUD
1 Winner 0
St. Mirren STM
Full Time Sat, 2 May 2:00 PM
Round 35 2nd Phase
Joe Westley - 12'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Dundee secured a 1-0 victory over St. Mirren at home, with the only goal coming in the first half to lead 1-0 at halftime. Despite controlling just 40% of possession compared to St. Mirren's 60%, Dundee maintained a solid defensive structure to preserve their lead in the second half. No red cards were issued, and there were no notable second-half adjustments from either side. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, Dundee's win represented a significant structural deviation of 58.4% in their favor. The outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations, and efficiency remained in line with projections. Without xG data available, performance metrics focused on possession and event absence, highlighting Dundee's clinical finishing and resilience against higher ball control from the visitors.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dundee's 1-0 win exhibited a significant 58.4% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No key events occurred to influence the match outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the final score.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. McLean

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Rae

1st Assistant

G. McCabe

2nd Assistant

L. Wilson

4th Official

Dundee S. Pressley
S. Pressley
VS
St. Mirren C. McLeish
C. McLeish
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.83
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee United Rank: 62 L
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 D
Celtic Rank: 78 L
Hearts Rank: 74 L
Dundee United Rank: 62 D
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Livingston Rank: 53 L
Celtic Rank: 77 L
Aberdeen Rank: 59 W
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Dundee United Rank: 62 L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 4 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dundee
41.59%
Draw
28.86%
Away St. Mirren
29.55%

Movement

Changes since opening
Dundee
-54.52%
Draw
+25.16%
St. Mirren
+29.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.65
56.62
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dundee
St. Mirren
Power Score
58.65
56.62
League Position
9
10
Global Rank
531
592

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dundee — Opponent-weighted form score
St. Mirren — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dundee St. Mirren

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dundee

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

St. Mirren

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dundee ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Mirren
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.13
21.92
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.92
31.13
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dundee +0.89 Efficiency Index
vs
St. Mirren -0.89 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dundee
St. Mirren
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dundee ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Mirren
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dundee St. Mirren
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dundee St. Mirren
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dundee
St. Mirren
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dundee
vs
St. Mirren
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dundee St. Mirren
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dundee 0.20
St. Mirren 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dundee St. Mirren
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dundee 0.00
St. Mirren 0.02
Dundee
St. Mirren
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • DUD had peak pressure around 97'.
  • DUD started the game with stronger pressure.
DUD Pressure STM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: DUD reached the top pressure at 97' (85.97).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dundee DUD Home
25 matches
St. Mirren STM Away
Match Record
9
Wins
12
4
Draws
4
12
Losses
9
Goals
32
Goals Scored
36
36
Goals Conceded
32
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:04:20+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
J. McCracken
Substitution
Scotland
1 J. McCracken
B. Halliday
England
16 B. Halliday
R. Astley
Wales
4 R. Astley
L. Graham
Scotland
22 L. Graham
D. Wright
Substitution
England
7 D. Wright
Y. Dhanda
England
21 Y. Dhanda
E. Hamilton
Scotland
48 E. Hamilton
C. Congreve
Wales
20 C. Congreve
J. Westley
Substitution
England
19 J. Westley
T. Yogane
Substitution
England
17 T. Yogane
S. Murray
Substitution
Scotland
15 S. Murray
Pitch
R. Sinclair
Scotland
27 R. Sinclair
S. Tanser
Substitution
England
3 S. Tanser
M. Freckleton
England
21 M. Freckleton
R. King
Jamaica
5 R. King
J. Richardson
England
2 J. Richardson
A. Campbell
Scotland
16 A. Campbell
J. Devaney
England
8 J. Devaney
M. O'Hara
Substitution
Scotland
6 M. O'Hara
K. Phillips
Republic of Ireland
88 K. Phillips
M. Mandron
France
9 M. Mandron
R. Idowu
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
7 R. Idowu

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 35 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park
Capacity :
11775
Attendance :
5379
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Steven McLean
Chris Rae
Gordon McCabe
Lloyd Wilson

Statistics

Possession
DUD
43%
STM
57%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
3 Shots 2
49 Dangerous attacks 43
40 Possession 60
5 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

10 Goal Kicks 7
22 Throwins 21
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
58 Ball Safe 60
6 Goal Attempts 7
12 Successful Dribbles 3
22 Dribble Attempts 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 3
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

98 Attacks 113
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

227 Successful Passes 403
73 Successful Passes Percentage 81
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
312 Passes 496
67 Long Passes 79
24 Successful Long Passes 44
6 Key Passes 9

Defensive

62 Duels Won 52
3 Interceptions 8
20 Tackles 22
6 Saves 4

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 19
3 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

9 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Steven McLean

Starting XI ▼

1
Jon McCracken
Jon McCracken Goalkeeper
6.88
13
Kieran O'Hara
Kieran O'Hara
Goalkeeper66'
7.02
4
Ryan Astley
Ryan Astley Defender
6.85
7
Drey Wright
Drey Wright Defender
6.74
5
Billy Koumetio
Billy Koumetio
Defender88'
6.84
16
Brad Halliday
Brad Halliday Defender
6.75
22
Luke Graham
Luke Graham Defender
6.99
17
Tony Yogane
Tony Yogane Midfielder
6.75
12
Imari Samuels
Imari Samuels
Defender88'
6.5
19
Joe Westley
Joe Westley Midfielder
6.63
10
Finlay Robertson
Finlay Robertson
Midfielder75'
6.64
20
Cameron Congreve
Cameron Congreve Midfielder
6.75
21
Yan Dhanda
Yan Dhanda Midfielder
6.82
48
Ethan Hamilton
Ethan Hamilton Midfielder
6.81
15
Simon Murray
Simon Murray Attacker
6.66
11
Ashley Hay
Ashley Hay
Attacker76'
6.79
Referee : Steven McLean

Starting XI ▼

27
R. Sinclair
R. Sinclair Goalkeeper
6.12
2
Jayden Richardson
Jayden Richardson Defender
6.55
3
Scott Tanser
Scott Tanser Defender
6.83
22
Marcus Fraser
Marcus Fraser
Defender84'
6.74
5
Richard King
Richard King Defender
6.64
21
Miguel Freckleton
Miguel Freckleton Defender
7.03
6
Mark O'Hara
Mark O'Hara Midfielder
6.85
10
Conor McMenamin
Conor McMenamin
Attacker80'
6.7
8
Jacob Devaney
Jacob Devaney Midfielder
6.82
16
Allan Campbell
Allan Campbell Midfielder
6.68
88
Killian Phillips
Killian Phillips Midfielder
6.85
7
Roland Idowu
Roland Idowu Attacker
6.53
20
Jake Young
Jake Young
Attacker84'
6.44
9
Mikael Mandron
Mikael Mandron Attacker
6.9

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Billy Koumetio → Drey Wright
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Imari Samuels → Tony Yogane
8th Substitution
88'
84'
Event
Marcus Fraser → Scott Tanser
5th Substitution
84'
Event
Jake Young → Roland Idowu
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Conor McMenamin → Mark O'Hara 
4th Substitution
Event
Ashley Hay → Simon Murray
3rd Substitution
76'
Event
Finlay Robertson → Joe Westley
2nd Substitution
75'
Event
Kieran O'Hara → Jon McCracken
1st Substitution
66'
1ST-HALF
Event
Brad Halliday
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
34'
28'
Event
Mikael Mandron
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
15'
Event
Jacob Devaney
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Joe Westley
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
12'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ashley Hay's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jayden Richardson's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Graham Luke takes a shot but misses.
88
Update Update
Billy Koumetio replaces Drey Wright.
88
Update Update
Imari Samuels is on, and Tony Yogane is off.
86
Attempt Attempt
Ashley Hay takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
84
Substitution Substitution
Jake Young is substituted for Roland Idowu.
84
Update Update
Marcus Fraser replaces Scott Tanser.
80
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Devaney's header is saved.
80
Update Update
Conor McMenamin replaces Mark O'Hara.
76
Update Update
Ashley Hay replaces Simon Murray.
75
Update Update
Finlay Robertson comes on for Joe Westley.
73
Attempt Attempt
Roland Idowu takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Congreve takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
Roland Idowu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
Kieran O'Hara is on, and Jon McCracken is off.
60
Attempt Attempt
Tony Yogane takes a right-footed shot but misses.
59
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Freckleton's left-footed shot is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Mandron's header shot misses the target.
50
Attempt Attempt
Jayden Richardson's left-footed shot is saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Mandron takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
47
Attempt Attempt
Joe Westley's right-footed shot is saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Ethan Hamilton takes a left-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Devaney's right-footed shot is blocked.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Brad Halliday receives a yellow card.
25
Attempt Attempt
Scott Tanser attempted a header but missed the shot.
20
Attempt Attempt
Ethan Hamilton's left-footed shot is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Killian Phillips takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
15
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jacob Devaney receives a yellow card.
12
Attempt Attempt
Joe Westley takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
10
Attempt Attempt
Yan Dhanda takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Dundee's disciplined performance yielded a hard-fought 1-0 win despite St. Mirren's possession dominance, underscoring effective game management after an early first-half goal. The significant deviation highlights Dundee's overachievement relative to structural factors, while market alignment confirms the result fit pre-match assessments. With efficiencies in line and no disruptive events, this outcome reinforces Dundee's status as the stronger side. St. Mirren's inability to convert possession into chances exposed vulnerabilities, allowing Dundee to control the narrative through defensive solidity and timely scoring.

Dundee vs St. Mirren preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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