Valencia vs Atlético Madrid Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio de Mestalla Sat, 2 May - 2:15 PM
La Liga
Valencia VAL
0 Winner 2
Atlético Madrid ATM
Full Time Sat, 2 May 2:15 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
|
Goal
Miguel Cubo - 82'
Iker Luque - 74'

CONTEXT

Valencia faced Atlético Madrid at home, suffering a 0-2 defeat despite controlling 53% possession to the visitors' 47%. The halftime score stood at 0-0, with the game remaining even until Atlético struck twice in the second half. Identified as the stronger team, Atlético Madrid delivered a performance that marked a significant 78.8% structural deviation in their favor, defying pre-match market probabilities that gave Valencia a 54.6% chance of victory, a 24.2% draw likelihood, and only 21.2% for an Atlético win. No red cards disrupted play, and efficiency levels for both sides remained in line with expectations. Absent xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis, but the result underscores Atlético's clinical second-half execution against a possession-dominant yet goalless Valencia. This outcome highlights Atlético's ability to outperform structural forecasts.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Atlético Madrid's 0-2 win exhibited a significant 78.8% structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevents alignment evaluation with the 0-2 scoreline.
  • Market alignment: The result did not align with pre-market probabilities favoring Valencia at 54.6%.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to lack of underlying data.
  • Event impact: No major events like second-half adjustments altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Munuera Montero

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Ramo Andrés

4th Official

A. Díaz González

2nd Assistant

A. Martínez Moreno

1st Assistant

Valencia C. Corberán Vallet
C. Corberán Vallet
VS
Atlético Madrid D. Simeone
D. Simeone
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.73
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Girona Rank: 76 W
Mallorca Rank: 76 D
Elche Rank: 72 L
Celta de Vigo Rank: 79 L
Sevilla Rank: 72 W
Real Oviedo Rank: 71 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Athletic Club Rank: 77 W
Elche Rank: 73 L
Sevilla Rank: 72 L
FC Barcelona Rank: 96 L
Real Madrid Rank: 93 L
Getafe Rank: 77 W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 15 - 24
24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Valencia
54.6%
Draw
24.21%
Away Atlético Madrid
21.18%

Movement

Changes since opening
Valencia
+54.4%
Draw
+22.29%
Atlético Madrid
-76.71%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.02
89.22
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Valencia
Atlético Madrid
Power Score
77.02
89.22
League Position
13
4
Global Rank
88
14

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Valencia — Opponent-weighted form score
Atlético Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Valencia Atlético Madrid

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Valencia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Atlético Madrid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Valencia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Atlético Madrid
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.04
46.81
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
46.81
26.04
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Valencia -1.88 Efficiency Index
vs
Atlético Madrid +1.88 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Valencia
Atlético Madrid
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Valencia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Atlético Madrid
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Valencia Atlético Madrid
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Valencia Atlético Madrid
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Valencia
Atlético Madrid
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Valencia
vs
Atlético Madrid
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Valencia Atlético Madrid
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Valencia 0.33
Atlético Madrid 0.50
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Valencia Atlético Madrid
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Valencia 0.05
Atlético Madrid 0.00
Valencia
Atlético Madrid
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ATM had peak pressure around 18'.
  • ATM started the game with stronger pressure.
VAL Pressure ATM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ATM reached the top pressure at 18' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 49 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Valencia VAL Home
49 matches
Atlético Madrid ATM Away
Match Record
10
Wins
24
15
Draws
15
24
Losses
10
Goals
51
Goals Scored
76
76
Goals Conceded
51
-25
Goal Difference
+25

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:04:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-5-1
Pitch
S. Dimitrievski
Macedonia
1 S. Dimitrievski
R. Saravia
Substitution
Argentina
20 R. Saravia
C. Tárrega Requeni
Spain
5 C. Tárrega Requeni
J. García Vayá
Spain
18 J. García Vayá
J. Gayá Peña
Substitution
Spain
14 J. Gayá Peña
L. Rioja González
Substitution
Spain
11 L. Rioja González
J. Guerra Moreno
Spain
8 J. Guerra Moreno
G. Rodríguez
Argentina
2 G. Rodríguez
F. Ugrinic
Substitution
Switzerland
23 F. Ugrinic
L. Ramazani
Substitution
Belgium
17 L. Ramazani
U. Sadiq Mesbah
Nigeria
6 U. Sadiq Mesbah
Pitch
J. Musso
Argentina
1 J. Musso
J. Del Romo
Spain
34 J. Del Romo
C. Lenglet
France
15 C. Lenglet
R. Le Normand
Spain
24 R. Le Normand
J. Franco
Substitution
Spain
32 J. Franco
T. Almada
Substitution
Argentina
11 T. Almada
O. Vaargas
United States
21 O. Vaargas
J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
Substitution
47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
Substitution
Spain
4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
N. Molina Lucero
Argentina
16 N. Molina Lucero
R. Belaid Khellil
Substitution
Algeria
29 R. Belaid Khellil

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de Mestalla
Capacity :
49430
Attendance :
45889
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
José Luis Munuera Montero
Armando Ramo Andrés
Adrián Díaz González
Antonio Ramón Martínez Moreno

Statistics

Possession
VAL
51%
ATM
49%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 3
7 Shots 11
36 Dangerous attacks 40
53 Possession 47
1 Corners 7
12 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 52
8 Successful Dribbles 14
17 Dribble Attempts 27
1 Hit Woodwork 1
23 Throwins 20
8 Goal Kicks 12
11 Successful Headers 12
1 Injuries 2
7 Goal Attempts 15
97 Ball Safe 95
5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 2

Attacking

103 Attacks 82
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

392 Successful Passes 353
50 Long Passes 54
470 Passes 424
83 Successful Passes Percentage 83
25 Successful Long Passes 21
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
9 Key Passes 14

Defensive

18 Tackles 20
10 Interceptions 16
48 Duels Won 52
3 Saves 0

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 6
19 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

9 Fouls 12
4 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : José Luis Munuera Montero

Starting XI ▼

1
Stole Dimitrievski
Stole Dimitrievski Goalkeeper
6.89
5
César Tárrega
César Tárrega Defender
6.72
14
José Gayà
José Gayà Defender
6.67
21
Jesús Vázquez
Jesús Vázquez
Defender73'
6.57
18
Pepelu
Pepelu Defender
6.96
20
Renzo Saravia
Renzo Saravia Defender
6.52
19
Dani Raba
Dani Raba
Attacker82'
6.66
2
Guido Rodríguez
Guido Rodríguez Midfielder
6.97
8
Javi Guerra
Javi Guerra Midfielder
6.7
11
Luis Rioja
Luis Rioja Midfielder
6.83
16
Diego López
Diego López
Attacker59'
6.68
23
Filip Ugrinic
Filip Ugrinic Midfielder
6.87
9
Hugo Duro
Hugo Duro
Attacker59'
6.77
6
Umar Sadiq
Umar Sadiq Attacker
6.52
17
Largie Ramazani
Largie Ramazani Attacker
6.84
7
Arnaut Danjuma
Arnaut Danjuma
Attacker73'
6.74
Referee : José Luis Munuera Montero

Starting XI ▼

1
Juan Musso
Juan Musso Goalkeeper
7.11
15
Clément Lenglet
Clément Lenglet Defender
6.73
24
Robin Le Normand
Robin Le Normand Defender
6.67
32
Javier Boñar
Javier Boñar Defender
6.63
40
Aleksa Puric
Aleksa Puric
Defender90+7'
34
Julio Díaz
Julio Díaz Defender
6.77
4
Rodrigo Mendoza
Rodrigo Mendoza Midfielder
6.57
7
Antoine Griezmann
Antoine Griezmann
Attacker73'
6.97
11
Thiago Almada
Thiago Almada Midfielder
6.81
6
Koke
Koke
Midfielder73'
6.99
16
Nahuel Molina
Nahuel Molina Midfielder
6.76
21
Obed Vargas
Obed Vargas Midfielder
6.7
47
Javi Morcillo
Javi Morcillo Midfielder
6.33
61
Miguel Cubo
Miguel Cubo
Attacker63'
7.29
29
Rayane Belaid
Rayane Belaid Attacker
6.27
37
Iker Luque
Iker Luque
Attacker63'
7.07

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Aleksa Puric → Javier Boñar
10th Substitution
83'
Event
Miguel Cubo
Goal awarded
Event
Dani Raba → Renzo Saravia
9th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Miguel Cubo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
74'
Event
Iker Luque
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Arnaut Danjuma → Largie Ramazani
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Jesús Vázquez → José Gayà
8th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Antoine Griezmann → Rodrigo Mendoza
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Koke  → Thiago Almada
7th Substitution
Event
César Tárrega
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
67'
63'
Event
Miguel Cubo → Javi Morcillo
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Iker Luque → Rayane Belaid
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Obed Vargas
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Hugo Duro → Filip Ugrinic
1st Substitution
59'
Event
Diego López → Luis Rioja
2nd Substitution
59'
52'
Event
Rodrigo Mendoza
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
29'
Event
Thiago Almada
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Iker Luque takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Raba Antoli takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Iker Luque takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Sadiq Umar's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Raba Antoli takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Update Update
Aleksa Puric comes on for Javier Bonar.
90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Raba Antoli takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Sadiq Umar takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Update Update
Goal! Miguel Cubo scores to make it 0-2, assisted by Antoine Griezmann.
82
Substitution Substitution
Daniel Raba Antoli is substituted for Renzo Saravia.
80
Update Update
Clement Lenglet's header attempt misses the target.
73
Update Update
Jorge Resurreccion Merodio, Koke comes on for Thiago Almada.
73
Update Update
Antoine Griezmann is on, and Rodrigo Mendoza is off.
73
Update Update
Jesus Vazquez comes on for Jose Luis Gaya Pena.
73
Update Update
Arnaut Danjuma replaces Largie Ramazani.
69
Attempt Attempt
Largie Ramazani takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Nahuel Molina's right-footed shot is saved.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Csar Tarrega receives a yellow card.
66
Attempt Attempt
Javier Bonar takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Attempt Attempt
Obed Vaargas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
63
Update Update
Miguel Cubo is on, and Javier Rodrigalvarez Morcillo is off.
63
Attempt Attempt
Jose Luis Gaya Pena takes a header shot but misses.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Obed Vaargas receives a yellow card.
60
Attempt Attempt
Rayane Belaid takes a left-footed shot but misses.
59
Update Update
Hugo Duro comes on for Filip Ugrinic.
59
Update Update
Diego Lopez Noguerol comes on for Luis Rioja.
58
Attempt Attempt
Obed Vaargas takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rodrigo Mendoza receives a yellow card.
48
Attempt Attempt
Guido Rodriguez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Nahuel Molina's right-footed shot is blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Thiago Almada takes a left-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Largie Ramazani takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
39
Attempt Attempt
Javier Guerra takes a right-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Javier Guerra takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Rayane Belaid attempts a header but misses the shot.
35
Attempt Attempt
Javi Morcillo attempts a header but misses the shot.
35
Attempt Attempt
Robin Le Normand takes a right-footed shot but misses.
29
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Thiago Almada receives a yellow card.
26
Attempt Attempt
Filip Ugrinic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Largie Ramazani's right-footed shot is blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Nahuel Molina takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
17
Attempt Attempt
Nahuel Molina takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
16
Attempt Attempt
Nahuel Molina's right-footed shot is saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Mendoza takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Atlético Madrid's 0-2 victory over Valencia validates their stronger team status, overcoming a possession edge held by the hosts at 53% and a goalless first half. The significant 78.8% deviation underscores Atlético's second-half prowess, inverting pre-match market views that projected Valencia's dominance. With efficiencies in line and no red cards or key events intervening, the outcome reflects Atlético's superior conversion despite lower ball control. This result emphasizes tactical discipline and opportunity seizure, positioning Atlético favorably in broader context while exposing Valencia's finishing frailties.

Valencia vs Atlético Madrid preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

La Liga, Spain View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ