Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas Sat, 2 May - 2:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Moreirense MFC
3 Winner 2
Estrela Amadora CFEA
Full Time Sat, 2 May 2:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga - 90+4'
Luís Semedo - 73'
Alan de Souza Guimarães - 45+1'
Goal
|
Goal
Ianis Stoica - 36' (P)
Jovane Cabral - 13' (P)

CONTEXT

Moreirense secured a 3-2 victory over Estrela Amadora, overcoming a 1-2 halftime deficit despite dominating possession at 66% to 34%. The home side, identified as the stronger team, mounted a decisive second-half comeback to claim the win. This result marked a significant structural deviation of 69.6% in Moreirense's favor, diverging from pre-match market probabilities that slightly favored Estrela Amadora at 39.3%. Market alignment was not achieved, with efficiency holding in line with expectations. No red cards were issued, and no major second-half adjustments influenced the outcome. xG data for both teams remains unavailable, limiting deeper performance metrics analysis. The match demonstrated Moreirense's control and resilience in converting territorial advantage into goals.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Moreirense recorded a significant 69.6% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was not observed in the final outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: No events or adjustments significantly impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

H. Azevedo Malheiro

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Mateus Filipe

4th Official

G. Soares Vaz Freire

1st Assistant

H. Pires Ribeiro

2nd Assistant

Moreirense V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa
V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa
VS
Estrela Amadora A. Rocha Simão
A. Rocha Simão
1.09
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.86
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Benfica Rank: 87 L
Estoril Rank: 68 W
Famalicão Rank: 73 D
Sporting Braga Rank: 82 L
Arouca Rank: 65 L
Porto Rank: 87 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Porto Rank: 86 L
Arouca Rank: 64 L
Sporting CP Rank: 89 L
Nacional Rank: 65 L
Casa Pia Rank: 62 W
Rio Ave Rank: 64 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Moreirense
30.38%
Draw
30.38%
Away Estrela Amadora
39.25%

Movement

Changes since opening
Moreirense
-65.23%
Draw
+26.18%
Estrela Amadora
+39.06%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.36
58.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Moreirense
Estrela Amadora
Power Score
67.36
58.63
League Position
8
15
Global Rank
258
522

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Moreirense — Opponent-weighted form score
Estrela Amadora — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Moreirense Estrela Amadora

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Moreirense

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Estrela Amadora

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Moreirense ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Estrela Amadora
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.32
33.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.68
24.32
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Moreirense -0.91 Efficiency Index
vs
Estrela Amadora +0.91 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Moreirense
Estrela Amadora
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Moreirense ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Estrela Amadora
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Moreirense Estrela Amadora
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 2.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Moreirense Estrela Amadora
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
2.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Moreirense
Estrela Amadora
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Moreirense
vs
Estrela Amadora
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Moreirense Estrela Amadora
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Moreirense 0.34
Estrela Amadora 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Moreirense Estrela Amadora
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Moreirense 0.07
Estrela Amadora 0.07
Moreirense
Estrela Amadora
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CFEA had peak pressure around 92'.
  • MFC started the game with stronger pressure.
MFC Pressure CFEA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CFEA reached the top pressure at 92' (86.81).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Moreirense MFC Home
5 matches
Estrela Amadora CFEA Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
3
Draws
3
1
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
5
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:04:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
C. Gobbo Secco
Brazil
22 C. Gobbo Secco
F. de Souza Silva
Substitution
Brazil
70 F. de Souza Silva
G. Dambi Batista
Portugal
66 G. Dambi Batista
J. de Brito Gonzaga
Brazil
26 J. de Brito Gonzaga
D. Martins Travassos
Portugal
2 D. Martins Travassos
A. Cunha Almeida
Substitution
25 A. Cunha Almeida
R. Alonso Martín
Spain
21 R. Alonso Martín
F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
Portugal
10 F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
M. Stjepanovic
Substitution
Serbia
8 M. Stjepanovic
L. Costa Araujo
Substitution
Brazil
78 L. Costa Araujo
A. de Souza Guimarães
Substitution
Brazil
11 A. de Souza Guimarães
Pitch
R. Ribeiro
Brazil
40 R. Ribeiro
B. Langa
Substitution
Mozambique
24 B. Langa
O. Galdino Fernandes
Brazil
83 O. Galdino Fernandes
L. Wiedthauper
Brazil
30 L. Wiedthauper
M. Scholze
Germany
21 M. Scholze
A. Mussolo Sola
Substitution
63 A. Mussolo Sola
P. Valente Moreira
Portugal
19 P. Valente Moreira
I. Stoica
Romania
10 I. Stoica
J. Borges Cabral
Substitution
Cape Verde
11 J. Borges Cabral
A. Marcus
Substitution
Nigeria
99 A. Marcus
R. Pereira de Pinho
Substitution
Brazil
9 R. Pereira de Pinho

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Capacity :
2000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Luí­s Carlos Mateus Filipe
Hélder Miguel Azevedo Malheiro
Gonçalo Nuno Soares Vaz Freire
Hugo André Pires Ribeiro

Statistics

Possession
MFC
62%
CFEA
38%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 4
5 Shots 2
41 Dangerous attacks 29
66 Possession 34
1 Corners 4
17 Free kicks 16
4 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
1 Penalties 2
12 Goal Kicks 5
21 Throwins 15
11 Successful Headers 14
8 Successful Dribbles 8
17 Dribble Attempts 15
9 Goal Attempts 5
75 Ball Safe 68
5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 0
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

134 Attacks 58
1 Big Chances Missed 2
0 Counter Attacks 4

Possession

30 Successful Long Passes 27
494 Successful Passes 207
9 Key Passes 6
58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
52 Long Passes 74
88 Successful Passes Percentage 72
562 Passes 286

Defensive

12 Interceptions 11
49 Duels Won 52
15 Tackles 16
1 Saves 2

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 13
5 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
18 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Hélder Miguel Azevedo Malheiro

Starting XI ▼

22
Caio Gobbo Secco
Caio Gobbo Secco Goalkeeper
6.92
2
Travassos
Travassos Defender
6.88
26
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga Defender
6.8
66
Gilberto Dambi Batista
Gilberto Dambi Batista Defender
6.69
70
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva Defender
6.42
71
Leandro Santos
Leandro Santos
Defender76'
6.69
8
Mateja Stjepanović
Mateja Stjepanović Midfielder
6.64
23
Nile John
Nile John
Midfielder46'
6.52
10
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso Midfielder
6.65
21
Rodrigo Alonso Martín
Rodrigo Alonso Martín Midfielder
6.66
25
Afonso Assis Cunha Almeida
Afonso Assis Cunha Almeida Midfielder
6.61
99
Yan Lincon Farias de Sousa
Yan Lincon Farias de Sousa
Attacker46'
6.53
78
Landerson
Landerson Midfielder
6.44
27
Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues
Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues
Defender68'
6.64
11
Alan de Souza Guimarães
Alan de Souza Guimarães Attacker
7.01
9
Luís Semedo
Luís Semedo
Attacker68'
6.69
Referee : Hélder Miguel Azevedo Malheiro

Starting XI ▼

40
Renan Ribeiro
Renan Ribeiro Goalkeeper
6.73
21
Max Scholze
Max Scholze Defender
6.74
24
Bruno Langa
Bruno Langa Defender
6.8
17
Jefferson Encada
Jefferson Encada
Defender70'
6.65
30
Luan Patrick
Luan Patrick Defender
6.81
83
Otavio Manoel Galdino Fernandes
Otavio Manoel Galdino Fernandes Defender
6.59
10
Ianis Stoica
Ianis Stoica Midfielder
6.73
11
Jovane Cabral
Jovane Cabral Midfielder
7.11
6
Kevin Höög Jansson
Kevin Höög Jansson
Midfielder70'
6.67
19
Paulo Moreira
Paulo Moreira Midfielder
6.61
63
Alex Sola
Alex Sola Midfielder
6.5
18
Jorge Meireles
Jorge Meireles
Attacker81'
6.75
99
Abraham Marcus
Abraham Marcus Midfielder
7.08
28
Tom Moustier
Tom Moustier
Midfielder81'
6.51
9
Rodrigo Pinho
Rodrigo Pinho Attacker
6.77
20
Sydney van Hooijdonk
Sydney van Hooijdonk
Attacker64'
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga
Header / 3rd Goal
90+4'
Event
Gilberto Dambi Batista
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+4'
Event
Otavio Manoel Galdino Fernandes
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Jorge Meireles → Alex Sola
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Tom Moustier → Abraham Marcus
10th Substitution
77'
Event
Jefferson Encada
Handball / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Leandro Santos → Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Luís Semedo
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
73'
70'
Event
Jefferson Encada → Bruno Langa
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Kevin Höög Jansson → Jovane Cabral
7th Substitution
Event
Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues → Landerson
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Luís Semedo → Alan de Souza Guimarães
5th Substitution
68'
64'
Event
Sydney van Hooijdonk → Rodrigo Pinho
3rd Substitution
Event
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
50'
Event
Nile John → Mateja Stjepanović
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Yan Lincon Farias de Sousa → Afonso Assis Cunha Almeida
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Alan de Souza Guimarães
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
45+1'
Event
Alan de Souza Guimarães
GoalkeeperSave
45+1'
Event
Landerson
Penalty awarded
44'
Event
Rodrigo Alonso Martín
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
40'
36'
Event
Ianis Stoica
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
31'
Event
Max Scholze
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
25'
Event
Rodrigo Pinho
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
13'
Event
Jovane Cabral
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Caio Gobbo Secco
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
12'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Tom Moustier takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Update Update
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga scores with a header.
90
Attempt Attempt
Yan Maranhao takes a right-footed shot but misses.
87
Attempt Attempt
Ianis Stoica attempts a header but misses the shot.
85
Attempt Attempt
Jorge Meireles takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Attempt Attempt
Sydney van Hooijdonk attempts a header but misses the shot.
82
Attempt Attempt
Jorge Meireles takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
81
Substitution Substitution
Tom Moustier is substituted off for Abraham Marcus.
81
Update Update
Jorge Meireles comes on for Alexandre Sola.
78
Attempt Attempt
Yan Maranhao takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Update Update
Leandro Santos replaces Fabiano Josué De Souza Silva.
73
Attempt Attempt
Luis Semedo scores with a left-footed shot.
69
Update Update
Kevin Hoog Jansson is on, and Jovane Cabral is off.
69
Update Update
Jefferson Anilson Silva Encada comes on for Bruno Alberto Langa.
68
Update Update
Kiko comes on for Landerson.
68
Update Update
Luis Semedo replaces Alan de Souza Guimaraes.
64
Update Update
Sydney van Hooijdonk is on, and Rodrigo Pinho is off.
58
Attempt Attempt
Diogo Travassos takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
47
Attempt Attempt
Nile John takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Update Update
Nile John replaces Mateja Stjepanovic.
46
Update Update
Nile John comes on for Mateja Stjepanovic.
45
Attempt Attempt
Alan de Souza Guimaraes takes a right-footed shot and scores.
45
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Alan de Souza Guimaraes misses the penalty.
45
Attempt Attempt
Alan de Souza Guimaraes takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Update Update
Goal! Alan de Souza scores, making it 1-2.
45
Attempt Attempt
Fabiano Josué De Souza Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Rodrigo Alonso.
39
Attempt Attempt
Diogo Travassos takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
35
Update Update
Rodrigo Pinho's header is blocked.
35
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Ianis Stoica scores, making it 0-2.
30
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Pinho takes a left-footed shot but misses.
20
Attempt Attempt
Landerson's right-footed shot is blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Alonso Rodrigo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
13
Attempt Attempt
Jovane Cabral takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
10
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Jovane Cabral scores, making it 1-0.
9
Attempt Attempt
Mateja Stjepanovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
5
Attempt Attempt
Mateja Stjepanovic attempts a header but misses the shot.
2
Attempt Attempt
Jovane Cabral takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Moreirense's 3-2 win after trailing 1-2 at halftime reflects their superior possession and second-half execution against Estrela Amadora. The significant 69.6% deviation underscores a mismatch with pre-match market views favoring the visitors. With efficiency in line and no disruptive events like red cards, the result aligns with Moreirense's stronger team status. Absence of xG data prevents precise chance quality assessment, but goal output matched territorial dominance. This outcome highlights home resilience in overturning early concessions through sustained pressure.

Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Liga Portugal, Portugal View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ