Arouca vs Santa Clara Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Municipal de Arouca Sat, 2 May - 2:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Arouca FCA
2 – 2
Santa Clara CDSC
Full Time Sat, 2 May 2:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Tiago Esgaio - 83'
Hyun-ju Lee - 8'
Goal
|
Goal
Elias Manoel - 90+5'
Gabriel Silva - 10'
Hyun-ju Lee 66' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Arouca hosted Santa Clara in a dramatic Primeira Liga clash that concluded in a 2-2 draw. The first half was evenly contested, with both sides netting once to reach a 1-1 halftime score. Possession tilted slightly towards the home team at 51% compared to Santa Clara's 49%. The second half descended into chaos as three red cards were shown—two to Arouca and one to Santa Clara—disrupting the game's structure and leading to a tense finish. Despite Santa Clara being the stronger team on paper, they settled for a point in a result marked by moderate structural deviation. Efficiency levels stayed in line with expectations, and the outcome aligned with pre-match market views. The red card incidents heavily influenced proceedings, preventing either side from capitalizing fully on their opportunities. This hard-fought draw reflects the unpredictability introduced by disciplinary issues in an otherwise balanced encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Moderate 8.8% structural deviation occurred for Santa Clara in the 2-2 draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was confirmed as true.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: Multiple red cards significantly altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion dominated second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Baixinho

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Sousa

1st Assistant

V. Marques

2nd Assistant

G. Neves

4th Official

Arouca V. Freire De Seabra
V. Freire De Seabra
VS
Santa Clara Petit
Petit
1.18
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Alverca Rank: 65 L
Estrela Amadora Rank: 59 W
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
Estoril Rank: 67 W
Moreirense Rank: 67 W
Benfica Rank: 87 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 W
Casa Pia Rank: 62 D
Rio Ave Rank: 63 L
Sporting CP Rank: 88 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 W
AVS Rank: 58 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arouca
3.24%
Draw
91.23%
Away Santa Clara
5.53%

Movement

Changes since opening
Arouca
-87.83%
Draw
+82.54%
Santa Clara
+5.29%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.82
66.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arouca
Santa Clara
Power Score
64.82
66.45
League Position
11
13
Global Rank
332
284

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arouca — Opponent-weighted form score
Santa Clara — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arouca Santa Clara

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Arouca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Santa Clara

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Arouca ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Santa Clara
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.08
29.69
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.69
21.08
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Arouca -0.83 Efficiency Index
vs
Santa Clara +0.83 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Arouca
Santa Clara
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Arouca ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Santa Clara
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Arouca Santa Clara
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Arouca Santa Clara
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Arouca
Santa Clara
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Arouca
vs
Santa Clara
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Arouca Santa Clara
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Arouca 0.26
Santa Clara 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Arouca Santa Clara
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Arouca 0.04
Santa Clara 0.06
Arouca
Santa Clara
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CDSC had peak pressure around 65'.
  • FCA started the game with stronger pressure.
FCA Pressure CDSC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CDSC reached the top pressure at 65' (74.65).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arouca FCA Home
7 matches
Santa Clara CDSC Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
3
Goals
6
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
6
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:05:14+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
Uruguay
12 I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
T. Sousa Esgaio
Portugal
28 T. Sousa Esgaio
J. Sánchez de Felipe
Substitution
Spain
15 J. Sánchez de Felipe
J. Fontán Mondragón
Spain
3 J. Fontán Mondragón
B. Kuipers
Substitution
Netherlands
25 B. Kuipers
T. Fukui
Substitution
Japan
21 T. Fukui
E. van Ee
Netherlands
22 E. van Ee
A. Trezza Hernández
Uruguay
19 A. Trezza Hernández
H. Lee
South Korea
14 H. Lee
N. Djouahra
Substitution
France
7 N. Djouahra
I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Substitution
Spain
17 I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Pitch
G. Batista de Souza
Brazil
1 G. Batista de Souza
G. Romão
Substitution
Brazil
5 G. Romão
F. Ferrão Venâncio
Portugal
21 F. Ferrão Venâncio
S. Pena De Lima
Brazil
23 S. Pena De Lima
D. Dos Santos Cabral
Substitution
Portugal
2 D. Dos Santos Cabral
S. Lobo Araújo
Portugal
35 S. Lobo Araújo
J. Rocha Tavares
Cape Verde
65 J. Rocha Tavares
G. Silva Vieira
Brazil
10 G. Silva Vieira
G. Dimaraes Miranda
Substitution
Brazil
77 G. Dimaraes Miranda
B. Gonçalves Santos
Substitution
Brazil
11 B. Gonçalves Santos
G. Mendes Paciencia
Substitution
Portugal
39 G. Mendes Paciencia

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Capacity :
5600
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ricardo Baixinho
Andreia Sousa
Vasco Marques
Gonçalo Neves

Statistics

Possession
FCA
49%
CDSC
51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 5
35 Dangerous attacks 51
51 Possession 49
5 Corners 6
8 Free kicks 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
11 Successful Headers 11
8 Dribble Attempts 9
54 Ball Safe 52
13 Throwins 21
2 Assists 2
8 Goal Kicks 6
6 Substitutions 5
3 Successful Dribbles 4
1 Injuries 2
7 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

99 Attacks 87
0 Counter Attacks 1

Possession

378 Successful Passes 356
89 Successful Passes Percentage 88
29 Long Passes 57
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 61
427 Passes 404
13 Successful Long Passes 35
8 Key Passes 10

Defensive

1 Saves 3
13 Tackles 8
34 Duels Won 37
2 Interceptions 5

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 26
6 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
15 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Ricardo Baixinho

Starting XI ▼

12
Ignacio de Arruabarrena
Ignacio de Arruabarrena Goalkeeper
6.81
3
José Fontán
José Fontán Defender
6.76
15
Javi Sánchez
Javi Sánchez Defender
6.95
4
Matías Rocha
Matías Rocha
Defender46'
6.64
25
Bas Kuipers
Bas Kuipers Defender
6.57
44
Amadou Dante
Amadou Dante
Defender64'
6.42
28
Tiago Esgaio
Tiago Esgaio Defender
6.79
7
Naïs Djouahra
Naïs Djouahra Midfielder
6.84
10
Pablo Gozálbez
Pablo Gozálbez
Midfielder76'
6.61
14
Hyun-ju Lee
Hyun-ju Lee Midfielder
6.69
19
Alfonso Trezza
Alfonso Trezza Midfielder
6.71
21
Taichi Fukui
Taichi Fukui Midfielder
6.77
6
Diogo Monteiro
Diogo Monteiro
Defender85'
6.59
22
Espen van Ee
Espen van Ee Midfielder
6.83
17
Iván Barbero
Iván Barbero Attacker
6.76
46
Mateo Flores
Mateo Flores
Midfielder75'
6.51
Referee : Ricardo Baixinho

Starting XI ▼

1
Gabriel Batista
Gabriel Batista Goalkeeper
6.79
2
Diogo Calila
Diogo Calila Defender
6.49
42
Lucas Soares
Lucas Soares
Defender76'
6.77
5
Guilherme Romão
Guilherme Romão Defender
6.76
64
Paulo Victor
Paulo Victor
Defender22'
6.7
21
Frederico Venâncio
Frederico Venâncio Defender
6.86
23
Sidney Lima
Sidney Lima Defender
6.87
10
Gabriel Silva
Gabriel Silva Midfielder
6.87
11
Brenner
Brenner Midfielder
6.71
49
Welinton Torrão
Welinton Torrão
Attacker59'
6.6
35
Serginho
Serginho Midfielder
6.97
65
José Luís Rocha Tavares
José Luís Rocha Tavares Midfielder
6.66
77
Gustavo Klismahn
Gustavo Klismahn Midfielder
6.84
70
Vinícius Lopes
Vinícius Lopes
Attacker76'
6.83
39
Gonçalo Paciência
Gonçalo Paciência Attacker
6.7
7
Elias Manoel
Elias Manoel
Attacker76'
6.6

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Elias Manoel
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
88'
Event
Frederico Venâncio
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Diogo Monteiro → Taichi Fukui
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Tiago Esgaio
Header / 3rd Goal
83'
Event
Pablo Gozálbez → Naïs Djouahra
6th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Vinícius Lopes → Gustavo Klismahn
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Elias Manoel → Gonçalo Paciência
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Lucas Soares → Diogo Calila
9th Substitution
Event
Mateo Flores → Iván Barbero
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Hyun-ju Lee
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
66'
Event
Amadou Dante → Bas Kuipers
4th Substitution
64'
59'
Event
Welinton Torrão → Brenner
3rd Substitution
Event
Matías Rocha → Javi Sánchez
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Hyun-ju Lee
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
45+3'
Event
Vasco Seabra
Argument / 2nd Redcard
45'
45'
Event
Petit
Argument / 1st Redcard
44'
Event
José Luís Rocha Tavares
Simulation / 3rd Yellowcard
37'
Event
Var
30'
Event
Serginho
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
22'
Event
Paulo Victor → Guilherme Romão
1st Substitution
10'
Event
Gabriel Silva
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Hyun-ju Lee
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
8'
Event
Javi Sánchez
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
5'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Frederico Andre Ferrao Venancio attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Vinicius Lopes Da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Elias Alves takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
José Tavares takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
85
Update Update
Diogo Monteiro comes on for Taichi Fukui.
83
Update Update
Tiago Esgaio scores with a header.
77
Update Update
Lucas Soares de Almeida replaces Diogo dos Santos Cabral.
76
Update Update
Elias Alves replaces Goncalo Paciencia.
76
Update Update
Vinicius Lopes Da Silva comes on for Gustavo Klismahn Dimaraes Miranda.
75
Update Update
Pablo Gozalbez Gilabert is on, and Nais Djouahra is off.
75
Update Update
Mateo Flores comes on for Ivan Martinez Gonzalvez.
74
Attempt Attempt
Taichi Fukui takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lee Hyun-ju receives a second yellow card.
65
Attempt Attempt
José Tavares takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
64
Update Update
Amadou Dante replaces Bas Kuipers.
64
Attempt Attempt
Espen van Ee takes a right-footed shot but misses.
64
Attempt Attempt
Shot by José Tavares with his right foot is saved.
60
Attempt Attempt
José Tavares takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
59
Update Update
Welinton Macedo dos Santos is on, and Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos is off.
59
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Klismahn Dimaraes Miranda takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
59
Attempt Attempt
Diogo dos Santos Cabral takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Espen van Ee takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
José Tavares takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Matias Emiliano Rocha Calderon is on, and Javi Sanchez is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Tiago Esgaio takes a right-footed shot but misses.
44
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
José Tavares receives a yellow card.
31
Attempt Attempt
Nais Djouahra takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Goncalo Paciencia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
22
Update Update
Paulo Victor de Almeida Barbosa comes on for Guilherme Kennedy Romao.
18
Attempt Attempt
Espen van Ee takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
10
Update Update
Gabriel Silva Vieira scores with a header.
8
Attempt Attempt
Lee Hyun-ju takes a shot with his right foot and scores a goal.
8
Attempt Attempt
Tiago Esgaio takes a right-footed shot but misses.
5
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Javi Sanchez receives a yellow card.

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw between Arouca and Santa Clara underscores how red card incidents can overshadow team quality, with Santa Clara's stronger status yielding only a shared point amid moderate deviation. Arouca's two dismissals compounded their challenges, yet they held firm for a result in line with efficiency norms and market consensus. The even possession and halftime parity highlight a competitive affair distorted by discipline. Both teams will reflect on missed chances in a game defined by chaos rather than cohesion, potentially impacting their league standings as they navigate future fixtures with lessons on maintaining composure under pressure.

Arouca vs Santa Clara preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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